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E-150 - Saturday, October 5, 2019, presented by SYASLPartners

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RECENT AURAL PLEASURE:

MONEY MATTERS: This is the space where we look at interesting contributions to party committees or non-capped "ballot measure" committee accounts affiliated with legislators. Standard contributions to candidate committees up to the 2020 limit of $9,400 for primary and general are not included.

NOONER PREMIUM:

ELECTION UPDATES:

  • CD33 (LA Coast): added businesswoman Susan Sun Liew (R) - likely Dem - challenge to Ted Lieu (D)
  • CA43 (Inglewood): added sales person Miguel Angel Zuniga Jr. (G) - safe Dem - challenge to Maxine Waters (D)
  • AD25 (Fremont-Santa Clara): added policy analyst Natasha Gupta (D) - safe Dem - open seat (K. Chu running for supe)
  • AD25 (Fremont-Santa Clara): updated analysis [Nooner Premium]

IN TODAY'S NOONER:

  • Bill update
  • Poll position
  • Kamala Harris
  • Tom Steyer
  • Elizabeth Warren/Donald Trump
  • Political eye candy
  • Cakeday and Classifieds

Happy Saturday! I'm actually writing this Friday night as I have an early wedding in the morning.

BILL UPDATE: Courtesy of lobbyist Chris Micheli

  • Through yesterday, Friday, October 4, the Governor has acted on 549 bills. He has signed 526 bills and vetoed 23 bills. That is a current veto rate of 4.2%.
  • Governor Newsom has nine days remaining until the Sunday, October 13 at midnight deadline for final bill actions. The Governor has 488 bills remaining on his desk. That equates to an average of 54 bills per day being acted upon over the remaining 9 days.

POLL POSITION: Yesterday, we talked about the Democratic presidential race in California. The poll also tested voter opinions on ballot measures, specifically the March 2020 $15 billion preK-university bond, the "split roll" property tax measure currently in circulation, and a hypothetical water bond.

AB 48 (O'Donnell): Education finance: school facilities: Public Preschool, K-12, and College Health and Safety Bond Act of 2020.

Poll question: "If the state ballot had a $15 billion dollar bond measure to pay for construction and modernization of public schools, community colleges and California’s fouryear college systems, would you vote yes or no"

Likely voters:

  • yes 54%
  • no 40%
  • don't know 6%

My thoughts: Generally speaking, proponents want ballot measures to poll near 60% six months out. Well, we're five months out. That said, I would be less worried about a school bond as it's pretty straightforward to voters. In contrast, something like "split roll" property tax is far more complicated and, like we saw with rent control and dialysis last year, if voters are uncertain with what a measure does, they likely vote no.

A large coalition will spend heftily in support of the measure and opposition will be minimal. Supporters will say "Build safer schools without raising taxes." Opponents will talk about the state's "wall of debt," which still exists although much more long term than the short-term gimmickry used in the last twenty years by both parties.

Water bond: Agreement was not reached at the end of session for several reasons including the usual debate of storage vs. conservation. Also, there was a big debate over the size of the school bond, whether to split it between 2020 and 2022, and whether or not a water bond could bring both measures. An initiative for a $7.883 billion in bonds is currently in circulation "Authorizes Bonds To Fund Projects For Wildfire Prevention, Safe Drinking Water, And Protecting Wildlife And Lands From Climate Risks. Initiative Statute."

Poll question: "If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for water infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no?"

Likely voters:

  • yes 57%
  • no 31%
  • don't know 12%

My thoughts: Those are good numbers, although the question did not have a dollar amount in it, but it didn't have the popular phrases "wildfire prevention" and "drinking water" in it, so those probably even out.

"Split roll" property tax: As you may know, last year a "split roll" measure had sufficient signatures to qualify, but not in time for the November 2018 ballot. Because proponents did not make 2018, they decided to orphan the 2018 measure and write a new initiative for November 2020, which is currently out for circulation. The measure is pending title and summary at the Attorney General's office. Title and summary for the new initiative title and summary is due from the AG's office by October 17. The 2020 initiative took into account concerns expressed by some property owners but there will be a "Protect Prop. 13" campaign regardless.

Poll question: "What if there was a state ballot measure to have commercial properties taxed according to their current market value and direct some of this new tax revenue to state funding for K-to-12 public schools? Would you vote yes or no?"

Likely voters:

  • yes 47%
  • no 45%
  • don't know 8%

I need not tell you that the numbers aren't great and that the proponents will need a massive campaign to offset the onslaught of campaign ads in opposition.

An interesting aside. The Chan/Zuckerberg Initiative has contributed $1 million to the effort, $500,000 each for the 2018 and 2020 efforts. Facebook's campus in Menlo Park is in mostly new buildings and the employees are comparatively young. Thus, they stand out somewhat different than conventional businesses that  raises the question if other "new economy" businesses break from the traditional commercial property organizations.

That's an interesting dynamic compared to 1978 when Proposition 13 was sold largely on protecting older Californians from rapidly increased property taxes (from valuation appreciation) and a much different, less transient residential population. Do younger voters/donors who are not as fixed in their locations care the way folks did for Proposition 13? I'll have to think about this one more and welcome your thoughts.

Like with Proposition 10 (rent control) last year, changes to commercial property tax will not be solely a California issue. More than $73.5 million was spent opposing the measure and, of the main committee's $53.9 million raised, $15.3 million was outside of California. And, that was rental properties.

Commercial properties have much bigger ownership by real estate investment trusts (REITs) and will spend handily to defeat a measure that the Legislative Analyst's Office forecasts would cost between $7.5 billion and $12 billion annually. Like Hudson Pacific Properties and Allianz Real Estate, which own San Francisco's Ferry Building. Allianz is the Swiss insurance company. In short, money is not an object. I'm not picking on the Ferry Building, but I'm thinking of oysters at Hog Island right now. Yes, food desire drives The Nooner.

On the other side, proponents will argue that corporations have abused California's tax law through ownership gimmicks and $7.5 billion-$12 billion can be invested that money for our kids and communities.

There is of course another rent control measure sponsored by Michael Weinstein and the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, which appears to be moving forward even after AB 1482, the "rent gouging" bill was signed into law.

KAMALA HARRIS: I wrote yesterday my take on where Senator Kamala Harris's presidential bid stands in California. Today, LAT political wiz Mark Z. Barabak also takes a look.

TOM STEYER: While he has been television a lot for several years, San Francisco resident and billionaire former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer has 150 days to convince Californians (let aware everywhere else) that he should be treated as a serious presidential candidate. For CalMatters, Ben Christopher looks at what we know about him after the PPIC poll returned a 1% showing.

WHERE ARE WE? In the Bee, Gil Duran writes about the 2020 Democratic presidential primary and Warren's evident lead, and doesn't look kindly on her past claims of Native American heritage:

"If [Warren's] the Democratic nominee, who will swing state voters choose to forgive? A man who lies every time he speaks, or a woman who repeated one big lie for decades?

Please forgive my lack of optimism.

Of course, this is 2020. I could be wrong. I certainly hope so."

Ouch.

POLITICAL EYE CANDY, CAKEDAY and CLASSIFIEDS after the jump...

Probolsky Research

EYE CANDY: Here's a great resource by the California Research Bureau of the California State Library featuring legislative district profiles. [h/t Alex Vassar--and it's pronounced "VASS-er" for those that were tracking the Twitter thread on topic.

CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Johnathan Ervin and Pedro Ramirez!

Classifieds

Add your classified now both in The Nooner and online for $50/week or $150/month by emailing scottlay@gmail.com, with a headline, a summary of up to 200 words, and what you'd like the end date to be. You can attach a PDF or provide a link for a bigger job description/info to apply. [Other advertising options]


CSU: Director of State Relations (Sacramento)

Join our team at the California State University, Office of the Chancellor, and make a difference in providing access to higher education. We are currently seeking experienced candidates for the position of Director of State Relations. For details and to apply: https://csucareers.calstate.edu/detail.aspx?pid=76515

Opinion Research Analyst (Newport Beach, CA)

Probolsky Research is hiring a full time research analyst. We are a market and opinion research company based in Newport Beach, California. We are woman and Latina-owned. We are non-partisan, independent researchers passionate about accuracy, data security, and using storytelling to make data usable.

The Research Analyst is responsible for facilitating market and opinion research projects from instrument design to project fulfillment, final research deliverables and presentation to client.

View job requirements and how to apply here: https://www.probolskyresearch.com/research-analyst-full-time/

Campaign Manager Wanted
Local Central Valley campaign looking for a Campaign Manager to manage day-to-day operations. Position is located in the Central Valley. Prior campaign management or leadership a must. $3,000/month. Please send resume and 2 references to thomas@strategies58.net.

Alliance for Children's Rights: Policy Assistant (Sacramento)

The Alliance for Children’s Rights seeks to hire a well-organized, energetic and motivated full-time Policy Assistant. The Policy Assistant will provide administrative and organizational support for our Sacramento policy program. The job duties will include administrative and clerical support, coordination of the Alliance’s policy projects and special projects including events management, trainings, bill and grant deliverables tracking, scheduling, and research and analysis of legislative and regulatory proposals.

The Alliance’s Policy Program is based in Sacramento and works with Alliance program staff to identify and track child welfare practices that adversely impact our clients and helps to establish and implement responses to those practices which include legislative and regulatory advocacy, impact litigation and other reform efforts.

full description and application info

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific

The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a foundation in statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to governance. Learn at a beautiful campus three miles from the State Capitol: go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or publicpolicy@pacific.edu.

Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week: