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Summer Recess

E-213 - Saturday, August 3, 2019

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  • KQED'S Political Breakdown Podcast (Marisa Lagos and Guy Marzorati): Congressman Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) (2019-08-01)
  • Look West Podcast (Assembly Democratic Caucus): Assemblymember Tasha Boerner Horvath and Carlsbad City Councilmember and 3x Women’s World Longboard Surfing Champion, Cori Schumacher, discuss equal pay for equal play, and why gender pay inequity is still an issue in the world of sports (2019-07-23] [Look West | iTunes | Google Podcasts]
  • Force of Law Podcast (Laurel Rosenhall @ CalMatters): episode four - "at the risks officers face on the job and why many in law enforcement say the final version of a bill to curb police shootings no longer puts them in greater danger" (2019-07-20)
  • KQED'S Political Breakdown Podcast (Marisa Lagos and Guy Marzorati): Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) (2019-07-18)
  • Gimme Shelter Podcast (CalMatters's Matt Levin and LAT's Liam Dillon): earthquakes and housing (2019-07-18)
  • SacTownTalks by The Nooner (Gibran Maciel and Scott Lay): Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis (D) (2019-07-17) [YouTubeSimplecast | iTunes


  • ¿Dónde están?
  • Harassment and due process
  • The not-so-electric light parade
  • Cakeday   

SacTown Talks by The Nooner

Happy Saturday! It's a nice quiet morning in SacTown. I'm hoping to stroll over to the Capitol this afternoon to figure out what construction is going on that has the chute and scaffolding on the west side.

I'm going to be quick today as I'm working on a bigger piece for tomorrow on the "competitive" districts with only one candidate. I was hoping to have it done for today, but more research is warranted.

In short, it looks like there are no declared challengers in AD16 (Bauer-Kahan - D), AD35 (Cunningham - R), AD38 (Smith - D), AD60 (Cervantes - D), AD65 (Quirk-Silva - D), and AD66 (Muratsuchi - D). Does anyone know differently?

All but one of these districts have switched parties during the decade. There are others (i.e. AD36, AD76), but there are challengers in 2020.

I agree that flips in several of these re-captures look very daunting for the GOP in 2020 and that Republican Jordan Cunningham is pretty safe even in a district that voted for Clinton by 6.2% in 2016. Of the districts listed above, his is the only one that has been held by the GOP during this redistricting cycle (Katcho Achadjian before Cunningham).

What I'm really thinking about is the overall dynamics. It is very likely Democrats hold on to super-majorities in both houses in 2020. But what happens to the parties in these traditionally swing regions? I get that the big focus in 2020 for both parties is the presidential, but even futile Assembly campaigns bring in local donors and mobilize activists.

Many people I know in politics volunteered on losing Assembly campaigns, but we met the candidates and were inspired before we knew anything about win probabilities. Further, there's also something to say about the benefit to local party organizations of having a decent campaign from the opposing side. Again, that brings in money and volunteers to local Democratic and Republican clubs and attendance at those pizza-fueled college political party forums/meetings.

In short, come on folks, don't make 2020 too boring.

I'll be thinking about this more as I stroll to the Capitol shortly. Meanwhile, send me intel I may be lacking among the 153 state and congressional races I'm watching.

HARASSMENT AND DUE PROCESS: In the LAT, Teresa Watanabe reports that a student has filed a class-action lawsuit against the University if California over its procedures for disciplining students against whom harassment complaints are filed. A similar lawsuit has been filed against the California State University system. Watanabe writes:

"The class-action strategy relies on recent appellate court rulings in California and Ohio that ordered universities to provide students the opportunity for cross-examination at hearings before a neutral adjudicator.

The California court, in a January ruling in a USC case, held that “fundamental fairness” required colleges and universities statewide to provide those due process protections to students who are subject to severe disciplinary sanctions in cases that turned on questions of credibility — he-said, she-said situations, for instance."

THE NOT-SO-ELECTRIC LIGHT PARADE: Two months after Los Angeles International Airport had a power outage that scrapped numerous flights over a two-day period, Orange County Airport suffered the same fate last night following a fire at a substation on Jamboree, reports Eric Licas in the Register. Licas writes:

"Maintenance crews scrambled to diagnose and repair the cause of an electrical outage affecting thousands of residents in Irvine and Newport Beach along with travelers flying in and out of John Wayne Airport on Friday evening, Aug. 2.

More than 24,000 Southern California Edison customers had lost power as of 7:30 p.m., the utility said on its website; the number later rose to 28,000. The major outage stemmed from a fire that started at 6:18 p.m. in a substation on Jamboree Road, SCE spokeswoman Lois Pitter Bruce said."

If you didn't have a perfect Friday night, just think that you could have had young'ns in tow for that summer weekend at Disneyland for the weekend and had to explain why you were circling LAX after their bedtime instead of watching the fireworks from your room at the Disneyland Hotel. 

CAKEDAY after the jump...

Probolsky Research

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Fiona Moore Simon and Councilmember Chris Ward!


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