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DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA25 (Santa Clarita): added businessman Charles Patron (R)

AURAL PLEASURE:

  • On the Assembly Democrats Look West podcast, Assemblymember Reggie Jones-Sawyer links up with the folks of Ear Hustle Podcast and hears from the inmates at San Quentin State Prison on the subject of trauma-informed care, a revolutionary concept in youth justice, and how it could play a role in preventing at-risk youth from offending again.

E-362

Happy Humpday! The New Way California Summit was very interesting yesterday and I'll be writing more about it. This morning my fingers have however been typing away/researching for six hours and I'll leave the wrap on the event to some folks who were also there: Bryan Anderson/SacBeeChris Nichols/CapPubRad | Carla Marinucci/Politico.

Ruh-roh. There is a movie screening of the documentary "The Apology" about the "comfort women" in World War II, sponsored by the great nonprofit My Sister's House and JACL. I was looking for restaurants near the screening and the address sounded familiar. Indeed, the screening is the same address as the Sacramento Police HQ, which is where tonight's Black Lives Matter Sacramento protest is scheduled.

What a wild day yesterday was, and I hope that today is much quieter for some catch up. Meanwhile, today I got up at 5:20, made my coffee, and assumed my place at my desk at The Nooner's palatial headquarters. I turned on CNN and literally the first commercial was from "Protect California" advocating for SB 230 (Caballero), calling for pass the bill "to provide police the training they have been asking for." Here is one of the ads.

Literally, the first words I heard this morning were from a scary narrator talking about police shootings and California legislation. Come on folks, the coffee isn't even ready yet. I rescued my brain to the extent possible for the time being and immediately switched to Stephen Colbert.

But, as Abbey Bartlet would say, "GAME ON, BOYFRIEND."

While Protect California is not required to register as a lobbyist coalition and report expenditures unless the coalition rather than individual entities in the coalition make direct lobbying expenditures, its web site list members, which are:

  • Los Angeles Police Protective League
  • Association of Los Angeles Deputy Sheriffs
  • Peace Officers Research Association of California
  • San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Employees’ Benefit Association
  • San Jose Police Officers’ Association
  • UA Local 393 Plumbers, Steamfitters, and HVAC/R Service Technicians of Santa Clara and San Benito Counties
  • Sacramento Police Officers Association
  • California Association of Highway Patrolmen
  • Sacramento County Deputy Sheriffs’ Association

Plumbers are like the second cousin nobody knows at Thanksgiving who just happened to be in town. 

The contact information on the website is for the Los Angeles Police Protective League, the LAPD's police union. The five-point plan for Protect California are centered on "resources" and "tools" to address economic opportunity, mental health, and training. The final point comes across as a jab at outspoken legislators with "Holds all stakeholders accountable to match their rhetoric with resources."

The plan concludes:

"We will work with like-minded individuals and organizations interested in achieving a comprehensive solution to improving neighborhood safety, strengthening trust between public safety officers and the communities they serve, and addressing the root causes of crime. We will work toward establishing, and participating in, a fact-based and data-driven dialogue to achieve these goals. We hope you will join us!"

The effort is of course to push back on AB 392 (Weber and McCarty), a bill which focuses only on the statutory definition of unlawful deadly force. In addition to calling for more training, SB 230 would reduce the circumstances in which individual officers can be held criminally liable for using deadly force in the arrest of a suspect.

I choose my words carefully and feel like I'm in the first year of law school with the great late Professor John Poulos. Yes, I had a liberal professor for Crim. That said, before you jump to thinking I'm a left-wing activist, I have told many people that I believe the District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, and now Attorney General Xavier Becerra, are correct in their analysis that a criminal trial would not be successful against the officers in the Stephon Clark case--under current statute and the contemporaneous facts at the time the officers fired their weapons.

My problem with Anne Marie Schubert's Saturday presser announcing her conclusion introduced far more facts than were contemporaneously present on the minds of officers at the time of the shooting. Most would be relevant in a criminal trial but, in my opinion, some were not.

As I watched the presser, I was thinking back to Evidence class and I was objecting loudly to me television. The point is that those facts should not be introduced to the "jury" until evaluated by the neutral arbiter, a judge. There is an existing $20 million civil case against the City of Sacramento and the potential jurors have now been exposed to facts not contemporaneous to the shooting, and those facts have not actually been introduced in a trial. 

In contrast, I thought Becerra stuck mostly to the contemporaneous facts and, as I said, I agree with the criminal conclusions. The city will be paying the Clark family a significant sum even with the evidence publicized by the DA. The city's lawyers will warn against trial as, while we know a lot more about Stephon Clark, there hasn't been a similar investigation of the officers, and you never know what could come out at trial that could lead a jury to arrive at the upper end of the lawsuit's demands. 

Remember, as much as it may seem to suck, much of civil lawsuits is about a cost-benefit analysis of proceeding or settling.

Neither SB 230 nor AB 392 have been set for respective Public Safety committee hearings, although both committees have two bill hearings scheduled over the next month that occur after the bills are eligible. Clearly leadership and I'm guessing the governor's office would like to see some private negotiations occur early instead of having the bills move quickly. 

Protect California knows that most legislators kick off their shoes at the end of very long days three nights a week in Sacramento and wake up to catch the news around the time I get up to start writing. Thus, the television ads to influence these early negotiations amidst nightly news footage of protests and crazy city council meetings last night. 

Capitol Public Radio's Ben Adler gets national Morning Edition ears with a story of the negotiations toward a middle ground between the two bills.

Meanwhile, Mayor Steinberg and the Sacramento City Council have asked the City's Office of Public Safety Accountability to investigate the situation that led to 84 arrests, plus the detention of Bee reporter Dale Kasler. Kasler was released after Steinberg got an angry call from the paper's editor. The two reporters arrested and cited were from the Sacramento Business Journal and the Sac State Hornet. The Office of Public Safety Accountability is an office that directly answers to the mayor and council rather than the city manager.

THE SEVEN: Yesterday, the Secretary of State's Office released to the Supplement to the Statement of Vote, which breaks down statewide races by congressional and legislative districts and political subdivisions within counties. It's the stuff that geeks are made of.

I'll be looking at key races over the next few days, in particular looking at performance some districts in the gubernatorial race. Today we'll look at the seven congressional districts that flipped from Republican to Democrat to see how they compared in the race for Governor. This tells us whether there was a distinct partisan trend in the district or whether it was specific to the congressional race issues of health care, the GOP tax bill, and President Trump.

DistrictNewsom (D) VoteNewsom %Cox (R) voteCox %

CA10 (Stanislaus)

110,245

49.5%

112,447

50.5%

CA21 (Fresno-Kern-Kings)

59,678

52.1%

54,831

47.9%

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale)

125,587

51.1%

120,361

48.9%

CA39 (Fullerton)

122,068

49.6%

124,006

50.4%

CA45 (Irvine)

151,789

49.4%

155,367

50.6%

CA48 (Huntington Beach)

142,430

47.9%

155,036

52.1%

CA49 (S. OC/N. San Diego)

153,703

51.5%

144,801

48.5%

As I have highlighted, in four of the seven districts, Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox actually won the district, while the GOP lost the congressional seat. Most analysts who watched these elections felt that the seven races were largely down-to-the-wire competitive with no major stumbles, except in CA49, where Diane Harkey's (R) campaign just didn't really match up well with Mike Levin and you had an underlying Dem-on-Dem race in the southern half for State Assembly.

Now, let's look at the final results of the congressional races for these districts. Of course, these are all districts where the Democrat won. In order, CA10-Harder over Denham, CA21-Cox over Valadao, CA25-Hill over Knight, CA39-Cisneros over Kim, CA45-Porter over Walters, CA48-Rouda over Rohrabacher, and CA49-Levin over Harkey.

DistrictDem CandidateDem %Rep CandidateRep %

CA10 (Stanislaus)

115,945

52.3%

105,955

47.7%

CA21 (Kern-Kings-Fresno)

57,239

50.4%

56,377

49.6%

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale)

133,209

54.4%

111,813

45.6%

CA39 (Fullerton)

126,002

51.6%

118,391

48.4%

CA45 (Irvine)

158,906

52.1%

146,383

47.9%

CA48 (Huntington Beach)

157,837

53.6%

136,899

46.4%

CA49 (S. OC/N. San Diego)

166,453

56.4%

128,577

43.6%

Let's look at the differential by raw votes between the race for each House race and that for governor in each of these districts.

DistrictDem House-Dem GovRep House-Rep Gov

CA10 (Stanislaus)

5,700

-6,492

CA21 (Fresno-Kern-Kings)

-2,439

1,546

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale)

7,622

-8,548

CA39 (Fullerton)

3,934

-5,615

CA45 (Irvine)

7,117

-8,984

CA48 (Huntington Beach)

15,407

-18,137

CA49 (S. OC/N. San Diego)

12,750

-16,224

One of these districts stands out and for longtime observers, it is no surprise. While CA21 and SD14 (Hurtado) both flipped to the Democrats this region, voters in both districts cast far more votes for Democrat Gavin Newsom for governor than for the respective district-level Democrats. 

This has been a perennial phenomenon in these districts on the western side of the San Joaquin Valley. Look at the voter registration for these districts. CA21 is D+16.14 and D+18.55. Those are safe Dem numbers everywhere else, even in mid-term elections. However, voters regularly split their tickets between statewide and national votes and those for local representatives. Democrats broke through this year, but it will continue to keep them on the edge of their seat. The first test will be in 2020 when Cox is up for his first re-election, while birthday girl Hurtado has a little bit of time before she will be up in 2022.

Some may think of it as a voter drop-off down-ballot rather than ticket splitting, so look at those data.

DistrictVote Drop from
Gov to House
Vote % Drop from
Gov to House

CA10 (Stanislaus)

792

0.356%

CA21 (Fresno-Kern-Kings)

893

0.780%

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale)

926

0.377%

CA39 (Fullerton)

1,681

0.683%

CA45 (Irvine)

1,867

0.608%

CA48 (Huntington Beach)

2,730

0.918%

CA49 (S. OC/N. San Diego)

3,474

1.164%

Average

 

0.698%

Voter drop-off from total votes cast for governor to for the House averaged 0.698%. I display the raw vote difference between the two. Remember, congressional districts are drawn based on absolute population in the 2010 Census, which includes legal non-residents, undocumented residents, and incarcerated and paroled individuals. 

Some love to jump to the voter registration numbers and think that low-registration numbers are because of undocumented immigrants counted in the Census. In some cases that is true. Good luck on amending the United States Constitution with the votes of three-fourths of the states.

In CA21, one finds Avenal, Corcoran, North Kern, Pleasant Valley, and Wasco state prisons. As of last week, they accounted for 31,255 persons per census counts, although they aren't voters. That's an important thing to keep in mind when comparing overall voter registration by district and the wonder of why the number of voters is so different among congressional districts.

Anyway, for our purposes, we see that among these seven districts, CA21 is not an outlier in drop-off between gubernatorial and congressional vote but rather just just above average. The odd outliers are in the largely white and wealthy coastal areas in CA48 and CA49. In these two districts--coastal Orange County and South Orange County/coastal northern San Diego County, in CA48, voters gave a 4.2% edge to Republican John Cox while they gave a 3% edge to Democrat Gavin Newsom in CA49.

In both cases, we see the largest dropoff between gubernatorial and congressional vote. I haven't done the numbers statewide just yet, as all aren't simple Dem-Rep comparisons like we have in these seven. The same-party races, like here in CA06 (Dem on Dem) or CA08 (Rep on Rep), are just noise in the drop-off analysis. Of course they will have greater drop-off. 

In short, CA21 does not have a huge voter drop-off, moderate Democrats continue to split voting more for Democrats statewide than in district level elections, but Democrats found a way to gain two narrow winds to breakthrough this traditional area of electoral heartbreak where registration and statewide voting rarely explained district-level results. 

I've written about it before and I still have the theory that many Democrats are former farm workers who have moved in to management roles. They are deeply Democrat, but not necessarily union Democrats in their roles. Thus, they often split their tickets between the top of the ticket and bottom.

ABOUT THIS WORK: For Nooner Premium, I have put the above data in spreadsheet for in Subscriber Central. Click "Forgot Password" if you can't remember your password or never set one up.

If you are not Nooner Premium but like this work, become a subscriber. This is late night work, well beyond the "morning read" that started The Nooner. I want to keep doing it and want to have a blend between free and Premium and I'm happy to provide the above free, which I would normally bury in district-level analysis only in Premium. So, I hope you can become a subscriber or renew today.

#LA-LA LAND ELECTIONS and the youngest legislative #CAKEDAY after the jump . . .

Probolsky Research

LA-LA LAND ELECTIONS:

  • LAUSD district 5: In the race to succeed Ref Rodriguez, the June 4 special runoff appears to be between former assemblymember Jackie Goldberg (12,226 - 48.6%) and either Graciela "Grace" Ortiz (3,368 - 13.30%) or Heather Repenning (3,315 - 13.09%).

    Goldberg nearly made it without a runoff. It would be a return to the school board after 27 years and has the strong support of United Teachers Los Angeles. The charter schools officially sat the race out, although charter supporter Eli Broad gave $100,000 to the Spanish-language IE supporting Repenning the day before the election. Repenning, who is currently in third, is supporter by Mayor Eric Garcetti and SEIU Local 50, which represents most non-teaching union employees. Ortiz is a member Huntington Park City Council.
  • In the race for Manhattan Beach City Council, Suzanne Hadley appears to easily have placed first in an election for one of two at-large seats on the Manhattan Beach City Council. Hadley, a businesswoman and volunteer, is the wife of former assemblymember David Hadley

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Robert Baird, Senator Melissa Hurtado, and Assemblymember Miguel Santiago (for realz this time!)!

 

Classifieds

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Digital/Social Media Professional
Office of Senate President pro Tem Toni G. Atkins is looking for a digital/social media professional to lead all aspects of the Senator’s presence online – including website, social, SEM and channel strategy. Candidate must be digitally fluent with an understanding of the complex and fragmented digital media landscape and have strong communications skills. Candidate should be able to bring together a cohesive digital strategy that delivers results. Salary starts at $5,910 per month.
Full announcement
Submit Cover Letter, Resume, Writing Sample and Senate Employment Application to: Lizelda.lopez@sen.ca.gov.
YOUR NO.1 TRAINING RESOURCE FOR GOVERNMENTAL ADVOCATES.
Conducted by 45-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars offers unique and valuable training for California advocates that cannot be found anywhere else. That's why numerous nonprofits and for-profits, state and local government agencies, lobbying and public affairs firms and trade / professional associations from all over the state send us their new lobbyists, support staff, and anyone else who manages or collaborates in the process of advocacy, knowing they'll come back with information and inside insights they can put to immediate use. Our seminars cover the processes, points of influence and best practices for success across these key areas of advocacy: Legislative, Budget, Regulatory, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. Next dates: April 4-5, June 6-7, August 1-2. Curriculum information and registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
City of Sacramento: Council Representative
The Office of a Sacramento City Councilmember is seeking a Council Representative. The Council Representative will perform administrative, community relations, communications and constituency services.
To apply: www.cityofsacramento.org/mayor-council/districts/district4/hiring
Miller & Olson LLP is seeking a Lobby Compliance Specialist for its downtown Sacramento office
The Specialist position is responsible for administering the lobby reports for the firm’s clients at the Federal level and in all 50 states. Specifically, the position requires understanding lobby disclosure rules and requirements at the Federal level and in all 50 states, maintaining a calendar of filing deadlines, communicating with clients in gathering information for public lobby reports, and preparing and filing lobby reports in a timely manner. Specialist will work directly with the firm’s Senior Paralegal and attorneys. More details at our website: www.millerpoliticallaw.com/news/.
The Judicial Council of California, Governmental Affairs office is seeking a Supervising Attorney or Principal Manager I (JO# 4915).
The council’s Governmental Affairs office represents and advocates for the judicial branch on legislative and policy matters. The Governmental Affairs team review all legislation, identifies bills of interest to the courts, staffs the council’s Policy Coordination and Liaison Committee in formulating positions on bills, and participates in legislative proceedings. The Supervising Attorney or Principal Manager I, under the direction of the Director of Governmental Affairs and the Administrative Director of the Courts, will assist in managing and directing the work of the Governmental Affairs office. The office includes attorneys, legislative advocates, and administrative support professionals. Starts $11,847 or $8,606/mo. Go to www.courts.ca.gov/careers and search JO# 4915 (Deadline 3/13).
The California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) seeks an Executive Director located in Sacramento.
The California Council on Science and Technology (CCST) seeks an Executive Director located in Sacramento. The Executive Director develops programs and services to provide science, engineering, and biomedical advice to the State of California's government and is the chief executive responsible for CCST's administration, fundraising, budgeting, and directing the CCST Science Fellows Program. Review of applications will begin immediately and preference is given to applications received by March 25th. Click here for more information.
Political Data Inc.
For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week:
 

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