Around The Capitol

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AroundTheCapitol Headlines | California Legislative Directory | Premium Subscribers

E-385

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CD48 (Huntington Beach): changed from Toss-up to Leans Democrat
  • SD15 (San Jose): added attorney Ann Ravel (D) - open seat (Beall); safe D
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • AD55 (Yorba Linda): changed from Safe Republican to Leans Republican
  • AD68 (Irvine): changed from Safe Republican to Leans Republican

Happy Tuesday! By the time you are reading this, the State of the State might be over. For those playing the tie/no-tie and, if so, what color, pool, the answers are:

  • tie
  • subdued purple

We'll have time to talk about that tomorrow. As I get my butt out of bed, we do know is that John Oliver was on Stephen Colbert last night, which can mean only one thing--Last Week Tonight is back on Sunday.

Meanwhile, as I noted yesterday, I posted an analysis on the March 26 special primary in SD01 (Northeast Cal) for Nooner Premium. Although I'm providing more detailed access for subscribers to try to make this financially viable, that doesn't mean I'll turn in to a clipping service in this space. There will be plenty to talk about in both places.

SD15 (San José): Former FPPC chair Ann Ravel (D) is joining the race to succeed Jim Beall (D). That broadens the field for this safe Democratic seat and may reduce the chances of a Dem-on-Dem November general like we saw in 2016 when former assemblymember Nora Campos (D) challenged incumbent Beall. That top-two of two Democrats emerged after a primary of 2 Dems and 2 Republicans. Campos is back, but it's likely to be a crowded field. 

So far, we have:

  • Nora Campos (D) - former assemblymember
  • Dave Cortese (D) - Santa Clara county supervisor
  • Tim Gildersleeve (NPP) - paratransit operator
  • Johnny Khamis (NPP) - San José city councilmember
  • Ann Ravel (D) - former FPPC chair/attorney
  • Ken Yeager (D) - former Santa Clara county supervisor

As I wrote above, this is a safe Democratic district--it was Clinton +51.7 in 2016. However, with this field, it's very likely that one Democrat would proceed from January with Johnny Khamis to the general. Tim Gildersleeve is a fringe candidate who ran for United States Senate in 2018 and captured 0.1% of the vote. I don't write that as a criticism of his personal views, but rather likelihood of getting serious traction.

However, Khamis is a councilmember who was a Republican until 2018. He, along with fellow councilmember Dev Davis, left the Republican Party over the Trump Administration's treatment of migrants. In San Jose, this caught a lot of attention in one of the state's most immigrant-focused cities (both Latin and Southeast Asian American).

I can't see any way that Khamis could win in November, but he can make a compelling case to enough GOP and NPP voters to make it through June. If the above four Democrats stay in, Khamis could very well place first in June. Of course, a Trump-proud Republican very well could jump in, as it is still very early, particularly for longshots. 

In short, SD15 is shaping up to be a fascinating battle among four strong Democrats and that battle may be decided in June unlike 2016. 

2020 and #CAKEDAY after the jump...

 

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2020 

CAN KAMALA CAPTURE GOLD IN THE GOLDEN STATE? Joe Mathews writes that Kamala Harris can't win the California primary. By that, he means that she won't ever be able to meet expectations in The Golden State. After all, she is not that well known and the roughly 500 delegates to be awarded to the Democratic convention aren't winner-take-all like the Electoral College, but rather by congressional district.

Mathews writes:

"...California is so big and comes so early that skipping the primary isn’t really an option. California’s primary thus isn’t an advantage for Harris. It might be the foremost obstacle to her candidacy."

Politico's David Siders reports on how the various presidential campaigns are searching for wisdom on how to navigate the complicated landscape to capture delegates in California.

"At least two campaigns have asked strategists about running a primary operation in California on a smaller budget, suggesting a potential effort to pick up delegates in smaller media markets in California’s rural, inland reaches while avoiding a confrontation with better-funded candidates in the expensive San Francisco and Los Angeles markets.

...

The overtures reflect the first steps by a sprawling cast of candidates reckoning with the significance of an early, high-stakes primary in the nation’s most populous state. California election officials will start mailing ballots to early voters about the same day Democrats caucus in Iowa, and millions of Californians will cast their ballots before New Hampshire Democrats go to the polls.

“They’re still figuring it out,” Roger Salazar, a Sacramento-based operative said. “California is one of those weird states because as much as New Hampshire and Iowa are all about organizing and field, California is so big that it’s mostly about message and being able to mass communicate.”

One strategist who has spoken with advisers to multiple candidates put it this way: “It’s the Wild West. It’s the land of opportunity.”

Lots of good content in Siders's article and highly recommend it. 

Probolsky Research

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Congressman Gil Cisneros, Sean South, and John Wildermuth!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

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  • Each year The James Irvine Foundation Leadership Awards recognize innovative leaders whose work benefits the people of California. Congratulations to the outstanding 2019 recipients tackling critical issues such as homelessness, health care, aging, and youth development. To learn more and nominate a leader for 2020, visit www.irvine.org/leadership-awards.
  • American Wild Horse Campaign
    We are the leading wild horse advocacy in the US and are seeking a talented development/ communications professional to join our dynamic team! If you have at least 4-6 years experience in development / communications or as a political analyst, legislative assistant, public relations specialist, lobbying consultant, and/or journalist covering politics, public policy or legislative issues on at least a regional level and also have a passion for wild horses, animals, and/or environment - we’d love to chat with you.

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  • The Attorney General's Office is seeking an External Affairs Associate with experience in community outreach and public relations, who will act as the representative for the Attorney General by attending events and meetings on his behalf. The External Affairs Associate will also, identify community and business partners and build lasting partnerships to promote the work and mission of the Attorney General's office. The job can be viewed here.

    The job is in San Francisco and the final filing day is February 26th.

  • Land-Use Project Coordinator
    Golden State Government Relations is looking for a responsible Project Coordinator to administer and organize client projects within our Land-Use Consulting Practice. The Land-Use Consulting Practice provides planning and project management services for clients through entitlement, permitting, and licensing processes with local government entities.

    Project Coordinator responsibilities include working closely with the Land-Use Specialist and Chief Strategic Officer to prepare comprehensive action plans, including resources, timeframes and budgets for projects. You will perform various coordinating tasks, like schedule and risk management, along with administrative duties, like application development and composition, project documentation and handling financial queries. To succeed in this role, you should have excellent time management and communication skills, as you’ll collaborate with clients and internal teams to deliver results on deadline. Contact patti@goldenstategr.com for more info. Learn more about this position and others at www.goldenstategr.com/jobs
  • Golden State Government Relations: Campaign Manager
    Golden State Government Relations is looking for a responsible Campaign Manager to administer and organize client public policy campaigns within our Advocacy Practice. The Advocacy Services Practice provides public policy advocacy services, including lobbying and community organizing for clients. Advocacy services can range between local ordinances up to state and national efforts depending on the client. Advocacy services may also support other client projects in land-use or compliance depending on the needs of the client.

    Campaign Manager responsibilities include working closely with the Chief Strategic Officer to prepare comprehensive action plans, including resources, timeframes and budgets to deliver successful advocacy results for clients. The Campaign Manager will be responsible for policy analysis and leading platform development. You will perform various coordinating tasks, like schedule and risk analysis/mitigation, along with administrative duties, like policy composition and budget oversight. To succeed in this role, you should have excellent time management and communication skills, as you’ll collaborate with clients and internal teams to deliver results on deadlines. patti@goldenstategr.com. Learn more about this position and others at www.goldenstategr.com/jobs.
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
    The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (San Francisco)
    The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.

  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Fresno) The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com/.
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