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EAR TICKLER: On the California Politics Podcast, John Myers, Melanie Mason, and Taryn Luna chat about the final election results and some of the folks named to Gavin Newsom's incoming team.
SPORTS PAGE: Heckuva Warriors @ Kings game last night. The Warriors showed their strength down the stretch, winning 130-125. The host Kings trolled Warrior point guard Stephon Curry, with footage of the moon landing playing during team introductions. Curry joked on a podcast Monday about whether man had ever landed on the moon. Today at 12:30, the Fresno State Bulldogs face Arizona State Sun Devils in the Las Vegas Bowl (12:30pm).
FIRE HELP: The feds will be in Sacramento and Alameda counties with mobile disaster response centers over the next week to assist those affected by the Camp Fire who have relocated to these counties. FEMA will be there to register survivors and do status checks, and the SBA Office of Disaster Assistance will be available for homeowners, renters, businesses of all sizes and private nonprofits to apply for our disaster assistance loans. Hours will be 10am-8pm.
TRANSITION: New key appointments by Governor-elect Gavin Newsom:
IN THE BLACK: The Department of Finance is out with its monthly economic and state budget report. Agency cash came in $1.722 billion above projections, bringing budget year-to-date revenues to up $1.943 billion. The largest sources both posted healthy numbers- with both personal income tax (+19.7%) and sales and use tax (+27.9%) above projections. It was largely expected as written up by the Legislative Analyst's Office last month. The LAO projected then that revenues will end the current year on June 30, 2019 $4.182 billion above the assumptions included in the budget for the year that began July 1.
COME ONE, COME ALL: Yesterday, the Secretary of State's Office certified the results of the November 6, 2018 Election. Here are some of the numbers:
Turnout in November was the highest since 1982 and a 22.34% higher of those registered than in 2014. The 1982 midterm election was to select the successor to Jerry Brown 1.0, when Republican George Deukmejian defeated Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley (D). Deukmejian won by 93,345 votes, or 1.2%.
This was the election where "the Bradley effect" was coined. Going in to the election, Bradley had a clear lead. The Field Poll conducted October 24-31, 1982 found likely voters found Bradley at 55.7 and Deuk at 43.4%. Deuk won on Election Day. The thought is that poll respondents told interviewers that they would vote for African-American Bradley, but did not follow suit in the secrecy of the polling place.
To this day, only white men have been elected to California's highest office. One Latino, Romualdo Pacheco, has served 9.5 months in the role in 1875, having ascended from lieutenant governor when Newton Booth was elected to the United States Senate. He was also the first governor to have been born in what was the State of California by the time he served as governor.
As with yesterday, click on the charts to see them bigger and I've also put them on the same page with my PPIC charts.
Obviously, while hitting a 36-year high turnout is the headline, the real political implications is the shift from precinct voting to vote-by-mail (VBMs) balloting.
First, let's look at the share of ballots received as vote-by-mail ballots, either via USPS or dropped off.
Clearly voting by mail is a trend that is here to stay. This was known before as the transition from "Election Day" to "Election Month," requiring campaigns to focus voter persuasion efforts earlier to catch people before they cast their ballot received nearly a month before polling places "open." But, as we saw with "Counting Month" this year, a large number of these ballots are being turned in at the last moment at polling places, postmarked by election day or, controversially, picked up by campaigns (if legal, signed and sealed) in the final days of the election.
The changes require changes in the timing of persuasion in mail and other efforts and also on the ground in getting those ballots turned in. We'll have lots more on this.
In addition to a surge in new permanent VBM voters, this cycle saw five counties move to "Voters Choice Act" counties. In those counties, all voters were mailed a ballot to return via mail or drop off in specified boxes. Additionally, those who did not receive a mail-in ballot or who conditionally registered after the deadline could cast a provisional ballot in designated polling places.
While fourteen counties were authorized to participate this year, only five did. All counties can be approved to participate beginning January 1, 2020 if certain criteria are met.
So, how did it work? Well, we need to look at two charts--how the counties performed relative to statewide numbers in this election and how they did compared with 2014.
Voters' Choice Act counties turnout relative to statewide...
First, the five Voters' Choice Act counties routinely overperform statewide numbers and that remain true when the Act was instituted this year. However, only in San Mateo do we see a discrnible bump relative to statewide numbers. In 2010 San Mateo was +5.71%, 2014 was 2.57%, and under the Voters' Choice Act in 2018, the county exceeded statewide turnout among registered voters by 8.09%.
Voting methodology alone of course is not the sole factor driving turnout in a particular county relative to statewide numbers. Local candidates and measures drive turnout as well. For example, in San Mateo County there was a hotly contested county-wide 1/2 cent sales tax for transportation projects. Requiring 66.67% of the vote for approval, it passed with 66.87%--a margin of success of 560 votes out of 270,612 cast on the question. Did that drive turnout in the county? I don't know. On Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal/transportation) had 7,934 cast on both sides than the county-wide measure. The state measure failed in San Mateo County with 71.91% of voters choosing "no."
Anyway, there lots of data points to play with out there for a political science student writing a paper on elections of voting behavior. I don't have a semester but rather six hours on a Saturday morning with holiday carols in the background.
Light some candles for the folks celebrating their #CAKEDAY...after the jump!
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Pat Bates, David Zay Latt, Tricia Lipper, Josh Pulliam, Jennifer Quan, Laura Velkei!
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