Around The Capitol

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EAR TICKLER: On the California Politics Podcast, John Myers, Melanie Mason, and Taryn Luna chat about the final election results and some of the folks named to Gavin Newsom's incoming team.

SPORTS PAGE: Heckuva Warriors @ Kings game last night. The Warriors showed their strength down the stretch, winning 130-125. The host Kings trolled Warrior point guard Stephon Curry, with footage of the moon landing playing during team introductions. Curry joked on a podcast Monday about whether man had ever landed on the moon. Today at 12:30, the Fresno State Bulldogs face Arizona State Sun Devils in the Las Vegas Bowl (12:30pm). 

FIRE HELP: The feds will be in Sacramento and Alameda counties with mobile disaster response centers over the next week to assist those affected by the Camp Fire who have relocated to these counties. FEMA will be there to register survivors and do status checks, and the SBA Office of Disaster Assistance will be available for homeowners, renters, businesses of all sizes and private nonprofits to apply for our disaster assistance loans. Hours will be 10am-8pm.

  • Sacramento County on December 17, 18, 19 and December 27, 28, 29 at 6237 Fountain Square Drive in Citrus Heights, CA 95621
  • Sacramento County on December 20, 21, 22 and January 3, 4, 5 at 10361 Rockingham Drive in Sacramento, CA 95827
  • Alameda County on December 20, 21, 22 and January 3, 4, 5 at 4985 Broder Boulevard in Dublin, CA 94568

TRANSITION: New key appointments by Governor-elect Gavin Newsom:

  • Chief Deputy Secretary for executive branch operations: Jason Elliott
  • Chief Deputy Secretary for policy development: Angie Wei 
  • Senior advisor on strategy and communications: Daniel Zingale

IN THE BLACK: The Department of Finance is out with its monthly economic and state budget report. Agency cash came in $1.722 billion above projections, bringing budget year-to-date revenues to up $1.943 billion. The largest sources both posted healthy numbers- with both personal income tax (+19.7%) and sales and use tax (+27.9%) above projections. It was largely expected as written up by the Legislative Analyst's Office last month. The LAO projected then that revenues will end the current year on June 30, 2019 $4.182 billion above the assumptions included in the budget for the year that began July 1.

COME ONE, COME ALL: Yesterday, the Secretary of State's Office certified the results of the November 6, 2018 Election. Here are some of the numbers:

  • Total voters: 12,712,542
  • Turnout of eligible: 50.45%
  • Turnout of registered: 64.54%
  • Ballots cast by mail: 65.31%
  • Highest turnout of registered: Marin (82.29%)
  • Lowest turnout of registered: Imperial (48.61%)

Turnout in November was the highest since 1982 and a 22.34% higher of those registered than in 2014. The 1982 midterm election was to select the successor to Jerry Brown 1.0, when Republican George Deukmejian defeated Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley (D). Deukmejian won by 93,345 votes, or 1.2%.

This was the election where "the Bradley effect" was coined. Going in to the election, Bradley had a clear lead. The Field Poll conducted October 24-31, 1982 found likely voters found Bradley at 55.7 and Deuk at 43.4%. Deuk won on Election Day. The thought is that poll respondents told interviewers that they would vote for African-American Bradley, but did not follow suit in the secrecy of the polling place.

To this day, only white men have been elected to California's highest office. One Latino, Romualdo Pacheco, has served 9.5 months in the role in 1875, having ascended from lieutenant governor when Newton Booth was elected to the United States Senate. He was also the first governor to have been born in what was the State of California by the time he served as governor.

As with yesterday, click on the charts to see them bigger and I've also put them on the same page with my PPIC charts.

 

Voter turnout 1982-2018

 

 

Obviously, while hitting a 36-year high turnout is the headline, the real political implications is the shift from precinct voting to vote-by-mail (VBMs) balloting.

First, let's look at the share of ballots received as vote-by-mail ballots, either via USPS or dropped off.

Vote-by-Mail Ballots as a Percentage of Those Cast

Clearly voting by mail is a trend that is here to stay. This was known before as the transition from "Election Day" to "Election Month," requiring campaigns to focus voter persuasion efforts earlier to catch people before they cast their ballot received nearly a month before polling places "open." But, as we saw with "Counting Month" this year, a large number of these ballots are being turned in at the last moment at polling places, postmarked by election day or, controversially, picked up by campaigns (if legal, signed and sealed) in the final days of the election. 

The changes require changes in the timing of persuasion in mail and other efforts and also on the ground in getting those ballots turned in. We'll have lots more on this.

In addition to a surge in new permanent VBM voters, this cycle saw five counties move to "Voters Choice Act" counties. In those counties, all voters were mailed a ballot to return via mail or drop off in specified boxes. Additionally, those who did not receive a mail-in ballot or who conditionally registered after the deadline could cast a provisional ballot in designated polling places. 

While fourteen counties were authorized to participate this year, only five did. All counties can be approved to participate beginning January 1, 2020 if certain criteria are met.

So, how did it work? Well, we need to look at two charts--how the counties performed relative to statewide numbers in this election and how they did compared with 2014.

Voters' Choice Act counties turnout relative to statewide...

Voters Choice Act counties turnout


Voters' Choice Act counties 2018 turnout among registered voters relative to 2014 and 2010...

 

Voters' Choice Act counties turnout over timeFirst, the five Voters' Choice Act counties routinely overperform statewide numbers and that remain true when the Act was instituted this year. However, only in San Mateo do we see a discrnible bump relative to statewide numbers. In 2010 San Mateo was +5.71%, 2014 was 2.57%, and under the Voters' Choice Act in 2018, the county exceeded statewide turnout among registered voters by 8.09%.

Voting methodology alone of course is not the sole factor driving turnout in a particular county relative to statewide numbers. Local candidates and measures drive turnout as well. For example, in San Mateo County there was a hotly contested county-wide 1/2 cent sales tax for transportation projects. Requiring 66.67% of the vote for approval, it passed with 66.87%--a margin of success of 560 votes out of 270,612 cast on the question. Did that drive turnout in the county? I don't know. On Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal/transportation) had 7,934 cast on both sides than the county-wide measure. The state measure failed in San Mateo County with 71.91% of voters choosing "no."

Anyway, there lots of data points to play with out there for a political science student writing a paper on elections of voting behavior. I don't have a semester but rather six hours on a Saturday morning with holiday carols in the background.

Light some candles for the folks celebrating their #CAKEDAY...after the jump!

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: Disability Rights California: senior legislative advocate
  • Job: Equality California: legislative manager
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Legislative and Regulatory Strategist to Public Policy Strategist
  • Job: Pruitt Consulting LLC: fundraising associate
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Pat BatesDavid Zay Latt, Tricia Lipper, Josh Pulliam, Jennifer QuanLaura Velkei!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Fresno, CA)
    The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Phoenix, AZ)
    This position is a 6-month assignment to start and is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure, engage our members and workers to be a powerful force at their worksites while participating in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record and experience with Arizona politics/legislation is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • Class A Office Space Available on L Street, across from Capitol.  One well-furnished executive office & assistant station.  Great views of Capitol.  Use of in-suite 10-person conference room, kitchen, closet, & color printer/copier.  $1,250/mo.  Contact Michael Daft @ 916.448.3075 or mdaft@apreamicheli.com
  • Pruitt Consulting LLC, seeks a part-time Fundraising Associate in Sacramento.
    Pruitt Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in fundraising for Democratic members of the California State Legislature, Constitutional officers, nonprofits, and political action committees.The Political Fundraising Associate assists the Political Fundraising Director and Chief Executive Officers in identifying donors, planning and attending fundraising events, and other business operations. This position requires analyzing political contributions, improving fundraising database, and assisting in various office duties.
     
    Email your resume to Gabriel Castellanos Jr, gabriel@pruitts.us or call at 916-400-4044.
  • Equality California, California's statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, is seeking a full-time Legislative Manager. The Legislative Manager will have the opportunity to spearhead Equality California’s legislative advocacy both substantively and administratively, as well as participate in electoral work for pro-LGBTQ candidates and community engagement throughout California. For more information and to apply, visit www.eqca.org/legislative-manager
  • CCST Expert Briefing on California’s Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Monday, December 17th, Noon-1:00pm in Capitol Room 126. Join us for a briefing with experts from NASA Ames, DOE’s Joint Bioenergy Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Perspectives from California’s Federal Laboratories.” Panelists will discuss emissions monitoring, biomass, and soil carbon capture. To receive a to-go lunch box following the briefing, RSVP by Noon on December 14 to Puneet Bhullar at puneet@ccst.us 
  • Disability Rights California
    We are seeking a Senior or Experienced Legislative Advocate for an aggressive disability rights organization. Join a lobbying team to advocate on issues that impact Californians with disabilities. Experience in special education and housing accessibility issues a plus. Salary based on experience. Apply here. Deadline is 12/7/2018.
  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST TO PUBLIC POLICY STRATEGIST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Book now for February 7-8 or April 4-5 dates (December 13-14 are sold out). Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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