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EAR TICKLER: Former OC Royce and Campbell Congressional staffer turned consultant Lou Penrose will be filling in for radio talk show host Carl DeMaio today (Thursday) 3PM- 6PM on San Diego’s Newsradio 600 KOGO.
Good morning. First, Nooner condolences are extended to Gavin Newsom, his sister, and his family for the loss of Judge William Alfred Newsom III. The senior Newsom served as an attorney for Getty Oil and a Brown 1.0 appointee to Auburn Superior and then the First District Court of Appeal where he sat until 1995. After stepping down from the bench, he became personal financial advisor to members of the Getty family, in particular Gordon Getty.
More on Sandy Eggo after the jump but first we have...
POLL POSITION: Last night, the Public Policy Institute of California released its periodic Californians and Their Government, which was conducted November 11-20. [toplines | all adults crosstabs | likely voters crosstabs]
There are lots of data points to look at when you get past the top lines, so I'll be biting off chunks over the next few days. There is also a PPIC briefing tomorrow that may shed more insight than I currently have.
JERRY BROWN 2.0--THE GOVERNOR AND THE LEGISLATURE: We'll start with job approval trends of likely voters. On each chart, you can click for a larger version.
When Governor Brown was sworn into office in January 2011, voters gave him the benefit of the doubt with a 47% approval rating after winning the November 2010 election with 53.8%. It was still a regular primary; Republican Meg Whitman received 40.9% of the vote. Brown ends his current two terms modestly higher at 52%. He's held on to his friends but also increased his enemies. He started in January 2011 with a 20% disapproval and ends with 40% who do not like the job that he's doing.
In contrast, the Legislature's approval rating was abysmal, at 18% in January 2011 and dropping to 14% in early April 2011. And, it's not because likely voter respondents didn't have an opinion--68% disapproved of the body's performance. As the 2017-18 session closed, the Legislature's disapproval rating a remarkable 25 points to 43%. Legislative bodies rarely perform well in polling, which first-year political science students learn. "Everybody hates Congress but loves their own congressmember." In the same PPIC poll among likely voters, 20% approve the job Congress is doing, while 74% disapprove.
Approval ratings, particularly the President's, strongly correlate with the economy. So, I decided to look at the S&P 500 index and California's unemployment rate over the same 2011-2018 period.
Clearly, people are generally happier in California right now, albeit cautious. The "right direction/wrong direction" numbers are 50-26% now, compared to 32-61% in January 2011. The "good times/bad times over the next 12 months" numbers stand at 46-44%. The same numbers were 28-63% in January 2011.
How do you make sense with the modest increase in the governor's numbers compared to dramatic increase in the Legislature's approval rating? Well, he is an individual who, like all top executive leaders, evokes an emotional response. The Legislature is a body and, barring doing really bad things that gain notoriety, generally is evaluated along with the underlying economic conditions.
Despite the serious challenges the state has (we'll be talking more about this over the next couple of days), things are going pretty darn well for most Californians. Yes, I see the same social media posts of people saying they are moving to Texas, but churn is really nothing new. From data I have seen, net migration is not negative, even when immigration is excluded. Don't believe the U-Haul stories, as not everybody uses U-Hauls.
Another take-away is that the abhorrent harassment scandals that took over the Capitol conversation in late 2017 and early 2018 didn't really appear to affect the approval standing generally with the Legislature. The Legislature made significant improvements along with the economy and has since largely tracked along with the governor. This polling was conducted before the recent market correction.
In summary, Governor Brown leaves office with a higher approval rating than he came in with, which is something to be proud of. Arnold Schwarzenegger entered in 2004 at 64% approve and left with 27% approve in 2010. Pete Wilson and Gray Davis also left with net negative job approval ratings. Meanwhile, the Legislature still has a net negative at 43-47%, but that's very good for a legislative body.
That Legislature job approval, however is highly partisan among likely voters. Here it is by voter self-identified affiliation:
The Governor's are similarly heavily tilted:
ISSUES: Tomorrow we'll look at issues, but I'll leave this chart I put together this morning. In this standard question, voters say the first answer that comes to mind and the interviewer codes it accordingly. It's an important question as to what is occupying the minds of voters, but that's where it stops. For example, "immigration/illegal immigration" can be answers from a variety of perspectives.
What's remarkable is that jobs/economy is top amidst what's likely the best economy by metrics that we will see for a while. At the same time, perennial chart-toppers crime and education are in the low single digits.
Sandy Eggo after the jumpity jump jump jumpity jump...
SANDY EGGO: Always known for its outstanding zoo and wild animal park, there is a full-on safari going on in San Diego politics. Yesterday I wrote about the likelihood of Congressman Scott Peters to give up his seat for a mayoral bid. He is likely to be joined in the race by Assemblymember Todd Gloria and councilmember Barbara Bry is also looking at the race.
There is also an interesting wrinkle. While the race would ordinarily be in the normal 2020 cycle, there are lots of rumors of a possible resignation by Mayor Kevin Faulconer setting up a special election in 2019. Why would he do that? Well, like the state, the San Diego City Charter has been amended to move all city ballot measures to the general election. However, that apparently doesn't apply to special municipal elections.
What's the issue? The expansion of the convention center that has been around for more than a decade and that is backed by Faulconer. Labor and business failed to qualify such a measure for November's ballot and are chomping at the bit to try again. Faulconer tried to get the city council to put a similar measure on the ballot, but members balked. It's a delicate balancing act that involves increasing hotel taxes and ensuring that citizens don't feel that the city is ignoring their priorities, particularly homelessness.
By the way, the salary issue is no longer a concern. San Diego voters amended the charter in November to tie the mayor's salary to that of superior court judges, beginning with the next mayor.
I have more on America's Finest City, but that'll have to wait, as time's up!
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Marilyn Anderson and Cory Salzillo!
DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: In addition to Lake, Solano, and Napa counties, AD04 also includes slivers of Colusa, Sacramento and Solano counties--and also Sonoma. I actually checked this time.
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Poll Tells Gavin Newsom: Make Universal Health Care Highest Priority - Capradio.org
Ben Adler @ capradio.org
Capital Public Radio, Inc.7055 Folsom BoulevardSacramento, CA 95826
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In the #MeToo era, pressure was on Congress to make the process fairer for those who accuse lawmakers or staffers of sexual misconduct. The House and Senate had passed separate legislation and struggled to reach a compromise, but two congressional aides said Wednesday that they had broken the logjam. This is a developing story. It [âÂ¦]
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Don’t be shocked by the North Carolina fraud allegations. Absentee ballots are much less secure than polling places.
contrast, no one oversees voters filling out absentee ballots to ensure that they fill out the ballot and return it without t @
In polling places, trained observers oversee and double-check voters and their ballots. Who's watching those who fill out absentee ballots?
Should health care be treated as a human right?
Here's what we can learn from Colombia's experience.