Around The Capitol

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EAR TICKLER: Former OC Royce and Campbell Congressional staffer turned consultant Lou Penrose will be filling in for radio talk show host Carl DeMaio today (Thursday) 3PM- 6PM on San Diego’s Newsradio 600 KOGO.

Good morning. First, Nooner condolences are extended to Gavin Newsom, his sister, and his family for the loss of Judge William Alfred Newsom III. The senior Newsom served as an attorney for Getty Oil and a Brown 1.0 appointee to Auburn Superior and then the First District Court of Appeal where he sat until 1995. After stepping down from the bench, he became personal financial advisor to members of the Getty family, in particular Gordon Getty

More on Sandy Eggo after the jump but first we have...

POLL POSITION: Last night, the Public Policy Institute of California released its periodic Californians and Their Government, which was conducted November 11-20. [toplines | all adults crosstabs | likely voters crosstabs]

There are lots of data points to look at when you get past the top lines, so I'll be biting off chunks over the next few days. There is also a PPIC briefing tomorrow that may shed more insight than I currently have. 

JERRY BROWN 2.0--THE GOVERNOR AND THE LEGISLATURE: We'll start with job approval trends of likely voters. On each chart, you can click for a larger version.  

Job approval trends

 

When Governor Brown was sworn into office in January 2011, voters gave him the benefit of the doubt with a 47% approval rating after winning the November 2010 election with 53.8%. It was still a regular primary; Republican Meg Whitman received 40.9% of the vote. Brown ends his current two terms modestly higher at 52%. He's held on to his friends but also increased his enemies. He started in January 2011 with a 20% disapproval and ends with 40% who do not like the job that he's doing.

In contrast, the Legislature's approval rating was abysmal, at 18% in January 2011 and dropping to 14% in early April 2011. And, it's not because likely voter respondents didn't have an opinion--68% disapproved of the body's performance. As the 2017-18 session closed, the Legislature's disapproval rating a remarkable 25 points to 43%. Legislative bodies rarely perform well in polling, which first-year political science students learn. "Everybody hates Congress but loves their own congressmember." In the same PPIC poll among likely voters, 20% approve the job Congress is doing, while 74% disapprove.

Approval ratings, particularly the President's, strongly correlate with the economy. So, I decided to look at the S&P 500 index and California's unemployment rate over the same 2011-2018 period.

 

S&P 500 index

 

Unemployment rate:

California unemployment rate

Clearly, people are generally happier in California right now, albeit cautious. The "right direction/wrong direction" numbers are 50-26% now, compared to 32-61% in January 2011. The "good times/bad times over the next 12 months" numbers stand at 46-44%. The same numbers were 28-63% in January 2011. 

How do you make sense with the modest increase in the governor's numbers compared to dramatic increase in the Legislature's approval rating? Well, he is an individual who, like all top executive leaders, evokes an emotional response. The Legislature is a body and, barring doing really bad things that gain notoriety, generally is evaluated along with the underlying economic conditions.

Despite the serious challenges the state has (we'll be talking more about this over the next couple of days), things are going pretty darn well for most Californians. Yes, I see the same social media posts of people saying they are moving to Texas, but churn is really nothing new. From data I have seen, net migration is not negative, even when immigration is excluded. Don't believe the U-Haul stories, as not everybody uses U-Hauls.

Another take-away is that the abhorrent harassment scandals that took over the Capitol conversation in late 2017 and early 2018 didn't really appear to affect the approval standing generally with the Legislature. The Legislature made significant improvements along with the economy and has since largely tracked along with the governor. This polling was conducted before the recent market correction.

In summary, Governor Brown leaves office with a higher approval rating than he came in with, which is something to be proud of. Arnold Schwarzenegger entered in 2004 at 64% approve and left with 27% approve in 2010. Pete Wilson and Gray Davis also left with net negative job approval ratings. Meanwhile, the Legislature still has a net negative at 43-47%, but that's very good for a legislative body.

That Legislature job approval, however is highly partisan among likely voters. Here it is by voter self-identified affiliation:

  • Democrats: 67-22%
  • Republicans: 11-83%
  • Independents/other: 40-51%

The Governor's are similarly heavily tilted: 

  • Democrats: 75-15%
  • Republicans: 17-80%
  • Independents/other: 49-41%

ISSUES: Tomorrow we'll look at issues, but I'll leave this chart I put together this morning. In this standard question, voters say the first answer that comes to mind and the interviewer codes it accordingly. It's an important question as to what is occupying the minds of voters, but that's where it stops. For example, "immigration/illegal immigration" can be answers from a variety of perspectives.

What's remarkable is that jobs/economy is top amidst what's likely the best economy by metrics that we will see for a while. At the same time, perennial chart-toppers crime and education are in the low single digits.

 

Most Important Issue

 

Sandy Eggo after the jumpity jump jump jumpity jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: Disability Rights California: senior legislative advocate
  • Job: Equality California: legislative manager
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Legislative and Regulatory Strategist to Public Policy Strategist
  • Job: Pruitt Consulting LLC: fundraising associate
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

SANDY EGGO: Always known for its outstanding zoo and wild animal park, there is a full-on safari going on in San Diego politics. Yesterday I wrote about the likelihood of Congressman Scott Peters to give up his seat for a mayoral bid. He is likely to be joined in the race by Assemblymember Todd Gloria and councilmember Barbara Bry is also looking at the race.

There is also an interesting wrinkle. While the race would ordinarily be in the normal 2020 cycle, there are lots of rumors of a possible resignation by Mayor Kevin Faulconer setting up a special election in 2019. Why would he do that? Well, like the state, the San Diego City Charter has been amended to move all city ballot measures to the general election. However, that apparently doesn't apply to special municipal elections.

What's the issue? The expansion of the convention center that has been around  for more than a decade and that is backed by Faulconer. Labor and business failed to qualify such a measure for November's ballot and are chomping at the bit to try again. Faulconer tried to get the city council to put a similar measure on the ballot, but members balked. It's a delicate balancing act that involves increasing hotel taxes and ensuring that citizens don't feel that the city is ignoring their priorities, particularly homelessness.

By the way, the salary issue is no longer a concern. San Diego voters amended the charter in November to tie the mayor's salary to that of superior court judges, beginning with the next mayor.

I have more on America's Finest City, but that'll have to wait, as time's up!

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Marilyn Anderson and Cory Salzillo!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: In addition to Lake, Solano, and Napa counties, AD04 also includes slivers of Colusa, Sacramento and Solano counties--and also Sonoma. I actually checked this time.

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Fresno, CA)
    The Political/Community Regional Organizer is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure and engage our members to be a powerful force at their worksites, in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Phoenix, AZ)
    This position is a 6-month assignment to start and is responsible for a broad range of program objectives to build and strengthen our infrastructure, engage our members and workers to be a powerful force at their worksites while participating in the legislative process, in the community and at the ballot box. Proven track record and experience with Arizona politics/legislation is a must. Competitive salary and excellent benefits. For more information on the position and to apply please visit our candidate portal at seiuunitedhealthcareworkers.appone.com.
  • Class A Office Space Available on L Street, across from Capitol.  One well-furnished executive office & assistant station.  Great views of Capitol.  Use of in-suite 10-person conference room, kitchen, closet, & color printer/copier.  $1,250/mo.  Contact Michael Daft @ 916.448.3075 or mdaft@apreamicheli.com
  • Pruitt Consulting LLC, seeks a part-time Fundraising Associate in Sacramento.
    Pruitt Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in fundraising for Democratic members of the California State Legislature, Constitutional officers, nonprofits, and political action committees.The Political Fundraising Associate assists the Political Fundraising Director and Chief Executive Officers in identifying donors, planning and attending fundraising events, and other business operations. This position requires analyzing political contributions, improving fundraising database, and assisting in various office duties.
     
    Email your resume to Gabriel Castellanos Jr, gabriel@pruitts.us or call at 916-400-4044.
  • Equality California, California's statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, is seeking a full-time Legislative Manager. The Legislative Manager will have the opportunity to spearhead Equality California’s legislative advocacy both substantively and administratively, as well as participate in electoral work for pro-LGBTQ candidates and community engagement throughout California. For more information and to apply, visit www.eqca.org/legislative-manager
  • CCST Expert Briefing on California’s Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Monday, December 17th, Noon-1:00pm in Capitol Room 126. Join us for a briefing with experts from NASA Ames, DOE’s Joint Bioenergy Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Perspectives from California’s Federal Laboratories.” Panelists will discuss emissions monitoring, biomass, and soil carbon capture. To receive a to-go lunch box following the briefing, RSVP by Noon on December 14 to Puneet Bhullar at puneet@ccst.us 
  • Disability Rights California
    We are seeking a Senior or Experienced Legislative Advocate for an aggressive disability rights organization. Join a lobbying team to advocate on issues that impact Californians with disabilities. Experience in special education and housing accessibility issues a plus. Salary based on experience. Apply here. Deadline is 12/7/2018.
  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST TO PUBLIC POLICY STRATEGIST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Book now for February 7-8 or April 4-5 dates (December 13-14 are sold out). Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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