Around The Capitol

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DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • SD01 (Northeast Cal): added Rex Hime (R) - 2019 special for Ted Gaines seat - date set in January

Happy Monday! Anybody want to be White House Chief of Staff? I haven't seen this many "noes" since I was seeking a prom date. Actually, I had dropped out junior and senior prom, but you get the picture.

Thank you for the great feedback on my write-up on the challenges of the CA GOP yesterday. If you didn't read it, I encourage you to and share your thoughts.

I had one sentence that I had edited with the gibberish filter on and did not catch in my final read-through. On the issue of Congresswoman Alexandra Cortez-Ocasio's criticism of the agenda and sponsorship of the Harvard Kennedy School's orientation for new members, I meant to convey that if Ms. Cortez-Ocasio wants to ensure that all interests are represented on every panel, then she should propose that the government pay for it. After all, the "Welcome to Washington" free event is voluntary and not official.

After overseeing conferences over many years, I know that they are expensive and you will never please everyone. I frequently heard from my members in hotel hallways "You know who we really needed on that panel..." Cortez-Ocasio--who while I think is a bright light to Washington and I appreciate the fight she brings from the Bronx--is a media darling right now, making a normal grumble turn into a political issue. 

CAGOP: Here are the statements of the three candidates for chair of the California Republican Party, published by Jon Fleischman in his Flash Report.

Former state senator Ray Haynes  lends his voice on the situation, and he lands in between the finger-pointing. "We have met the enemy. And, he is us. We are the problem. We lost because we deserve to lose, and until we face that, we will continue to lose." 

Is he a candidate?

SD34 (Westminster-Santa Ana): The recount has begun in former state senator Janet Nguyen (R) loss to sworn-in State Senator Tom Umberg (D) today. There has been some misreporting about this being on the taxpayer dime. In California, a candidate-requested recount is only paid for by the taxpayer if the results flip the race. Otherwise, Nguyen is on the hook. If the county registrar suspects a major error, that registrar can conduct a recount at government expense. The request provides an ordering of precincts to be counted and can be canceled at any time. Because we're talking about a 3,089-vote deficit, huge errors would have to be found and the recount likely won't continue through the week.

Here are the results for the Orange County portion of SD34. You can guess where Nguyen will be looking for votes. Nguyen has not asked for any recount of the Los Angeles County (south/east Long Beach, including CSULB) precincts. Umberg won that portion 55-45%, while Nguyen ended up 2 votes ahead in the dominant Orange County portion.

SD34 results map

 

If you want to geek-out and have finished your holiday preparations, you can look at this map and the precinct reports here.

The schedule for the recount, which involves a sampling of precincts, is below.  Daily results will be here in detail and if you are really bored today, you can watch streaming video. As of 11:00am, there was no such live video...

  • Monday, December 10th - 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
  • Tuesday, December 11th - 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
  • Wednesday, December 12th - 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
  • Thursday, December 13th - 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
  • Friday, December 14th - 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. 

NOT OVERLOOKED: Libertarian Jeff Hewitt defeated former assemblymember Russ Bogh (R) in a race for Riverside County Supervisor. While a non-partisan office, it was well known that Hewitt is a Libertarian and Bogh was Republican caucus chair in the Assembly. It's not unheard of for non-Dem, non-Rep candidates to gain election to minor office, but county supervisor is rare, particularly in a county as large as Riverside. The last such candidate to win election to the Legislature was Audie Bock in 1999 in a strange special and that was only for one term. 

Meanwhile, make your Bogh-Baugh jokes now. They were both leaders in the Assembly Republican Caucus and both lost races this year in seats that changed parties. Russ Bogh in Riverside County 5 and Scott Baugh in CA48 (Huntington Beach), where eventually Dana Rohrabacher (R) lost to Harley Rouda (D).

Speaking of Riverside County, former assemblymember Eric Linder, who was defeated by Sabrina Cervantes in AD60 in 2016, lost his bid against fellow Coronan to Karen Spiegal for supe district 2. After a closely watched campaign that had Cervantes at 49.8% on Election Night, she ended up winning easily with 54.1% of the vote.

UTILITIES: With the question of the liability for wildfires that occurred in 2018 pending as one of the most pressing issues for the Legislature to tackle in 2019 pending, CALmatters's Dan Walters asks the third-rail question--is it time to take the investor-owned utilities "off the grid"? No, not from an energy independence standpoint, but a governance and operational one. Walters points out the cost for 750 kWhs in Sacramento's public utility and PG&E and other investor owned utilities.

Let's get ready to rumble!

ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS...EVERYTHING! With a governor coming off a campaign with support from many spendthrift interests and large supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature, campaign promises are now turning into legislative proposals. While only a handful of bills have been introduced, the desires are beginning to find their way into legislative language. 

Warning...weeds ahead...

With the Legislative Analyst's Office finding that the prior year (2017-18) revenues ending at $1.1 billion above and the current year (2018-19) at $4.2 billion above projections, the kids are hungry to fill their stockings. That's after a combined reserve of $15.9 billion beginning the current fiscal year. So, when the Governor and Legislature are looking at shaping the 2019-20 budget, there is $5.3 billion in one-time money.

Then, there is an additional projected $11.7 billion in "ongoing" revenues in 2019-20 over the enacted 2018-19 budget, with the "moderate" growth projection of the LAO. Why is that such a big number? Well, you have to consider the increased "baseline" of $4.2 billion and then add on the moderate growth in 2019-20, which is really just roughly the same percentage growth as the current year.

So, that's $5.3 billion in one-time and $11.7 billion in ongoing funds for the elves. Of that, $1.7 billion in ongoing funds need to go into the constitutionally required (Prop 57) Budget Stabilization Account due to General Fund Growth, but it is capped at that (10% of GF revenues). Additional amounts can then be put in the "Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties," but that fund already started the current year at $2 billion. We don't know the state's cost of wildfires or the extent of the federal government's aid yet, but much will likely come from that fund. ($200 million was also included in the budget specifically for current year wildfire costs.)

There are about $2.1 billion in General Fund commitments already made, according to the LAO. The Proposition 98 funding requirement for K-12 schools and community colleges is expected to only increase by $2.4 billion (3.1%), with K-12 enrollment decline and inflationary adjustments offsetting the guarantee's increase. A large share of that will be from local property taxes, providing relief to the General Fund. That said, don't think that K-14 interests will be happy with 3.1%, with legislative proposals forthcoming to call for funding California per pupil funding in the top 10 states.

Community colleges, flush with new funds for student success and slower enrollment growth, are also calling for a change for community college students who are eligible for Cal Grants that would cover non-fee costs. They have a fair argument that the program disadvantages students--I made it many times. That has a price tag estimated at $1.5 billion at full implementation, and that is non-98. It is true that there are many students currently eligible for free community college, but are living in their cars. Colleges have opened gym showers during off times to accommodate students and there are active campaigns for student-organized food banks.

Meanwhile, the Governor-elect and Department of Finance are working on the January 10 budget proposal right now. They numbers need to be decided on shortly so the written description ("A Pages") can be composed. Ideally, that's done before Christmas as there is still a lot of work after the holiday with finalizing charts and the print-formatted document. Yes, it still has to be printed.

Something significant has happened since the Legislative Analyst's Office released its required Fiscal Outlook on November 14. The Dow Jones is down nearly 3%. The LAO uses an S&P 500 annual average, derived from a Moody's Analytics "consensus survey." The number used for 2018 is 2,774 and for 2019 is 2,810. This is very important because the greatest volatility in personal income tax revenue (PIT)--by far the largest source of state income--is the PIT tax on capital gains income.

As I type now, the S&P 500 stands at 2,605, or 6% below the 2018 consensus average. That said, an average is exactly that--an average. So, today's data point has to be averaged with all other trading days of the calendar year, which have been as high as 2,923 and as low as 2,582 in April. All things said, the 2,774 consensus may be a bit high but is not completely unreasonable even after the last five trading days (markets were closed on Wednesday).

In short for those who understandably skipped the last five grafs, the LAO's numbers might be a tad high, nobody knows, and it gives the Governor the rationale to low-ball the personal income tax revenue projections in his January budget proposal. All governor's do, but it is particularly important for Gavin Newsom, given the salivary glands of those with their hands out. 

The LAT's George Skelton writes about the challenge Governor Newsom has in taming the ambitions of legislators from his party and stakeholders, while Matier and Ross add the challenge ahead for San Francisco Assemblyman Phil Ting. Ting is the chair of the Assembly Budget Committee, who similarly has to handle expectations. Add Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher (D-San Diego), the influential chair of the Assembly Appropriations Committee and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon.

Gonzalez Fletcher will likely be faced with a record amount of proposed in spending, mostly by her fellow Democrats. The week of May 13 will include the Appropriations committee deadlines in both houses to approve bills to go to the floor--the "Suspense File," aka guillotine. Budget decisions aren't made at that point, but it's a careful ballet of moving forward items that have a budget year impact and will likely be in the budget.

The Governor's May Revise comes out that same week, another dancer in the ballet. Approps chairs hate to be the one to say "uh, no" to members of their caucus, and Gonzales Fletcher has 59 others to work with. But she also doesn't want to jam her San Diego neighbor Toni Atkins, the Pro Tem of the State Senate, or expected Senate Approps chair Anthony Portantino (D-La Cañada Flintridge). The Senate will be going through the same exercise

The change in term limits from 6+8 to 12 years is generally accepted as a great change among those inside and outside the Capitol. That said, it makes these fiscal leadership roles much more difficult, as does the "Super Super Majorities" as GOP chair candidate Steve Frank calls it. I have no belief that any of the leaders are in jeopardy, but they have to watch their backs. For that, they need Gavin Newsom to take the heat for legislative restraint.

Newsom has immense political capital. Not only did he win with 61.9% of the vote, but he spent much of the final weeks of the campaign essentially on the stump for Democratic candidates in perceived to be tough races.  They almost all won and know that his support brought money and volunteers out to win locally down the stretch. He's also likely sitting on $10 million in campaign funds.

Jerry may be the "No Man," but Gavin will likely begin his term as the "Not Yet Man." 

We have birthdays below the jump!

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: Disability Rights California: senior legislative advocate
  • Job: Equality California: legislative manager
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Legislative and Regulatory Strategist to Public Policy Strategist
  • Job: Pruitt Consulting LLC: fundraising associate
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Primo Castro, Kevin deLeónDenise Penn, Congressman Mark Takano!

CELEBRATIONS: Happy anniversary to Annie Lam and Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Pruitt Consulting LLC, seeks a part-time Fundraising Associate in Sacramento.
    Pruitt Consulting is a consulting firm that specializes in fundraising for Democratic members of the California State Legislature, Constitutional officers, nonprofits, and political action committees.The Political Fundraising Associate assists the Political Fundraising Director and Chief Executive Officers in identifying donors, planning and attending fundraising events, and other business operations. This position requires analyzing political contributions, improving fundraising database, and assisting in various office duties.
     
    Email your resume to Gabriel Castellanos Jr, gabriel@pruitts.us or call at 916-400-4044.
  • Equality California, California's statewide LGBTQ civil rights organization, is seeking a full-time Legislative Manager. The Legislative Manager will have the opportunity to spearhead Equality California’s legislative advocacy both substantively and administratively, as well as participate in electoral work for pro-LGBTQ candidates and community engagement throughout California. For more information and to apply, visit www.eqca.org/legislative-manager
  • CCST Expert Briefing on California’s Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Monday, December 17th, Noon-1:00pm in Capitol Room 126. Join us for a briefing with experts from NASA Ames, DOE’s Joint Bioenergy Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, “Pathways to Carbon Neutrality: Perspectives from California’s Federal Laboratories.” Panelists will discuss emissions monitoring, biomass, and soil carbon capture. To receive a to-go lunch box following the briefing, RSVP by Noon on December 14 to Puneet Bhullar at puneet@ccst.us 
  • Disability Rights California
    We are seeking a Senior or Experienced Legislative Advocate for an aggressive disability rights organization. Join a lobbying team to advocate on issues that impact Californians with disabilities. Experience in special education and housing accessibility issues a plus. Salary based on experience. Apply here. Deadline is 12/7/2018.
  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST TO PUBLIC POLICY STRATEGIST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Book now for February 7-8 or April 4-5 dates (December 13-14 are sold out). Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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