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FIRES: The number of unaccounted individuals is down to 158 and there are no new fatalities reported today. CALFIRE has stopped updating the breakdown of structures destroyed numbers as the incident has largely been handed off to locals and now just has the total, which stands at an astonishing 18,804.

  • Camp Fire: 88 fatalities, 18,804 structures destroyed; 153,336 acres; 100% contained

DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 88 deaths (November 2018)
#4 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 22 deaths (October 2017)
#11 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 9 deaths (October 2017)
#14 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 7 deaths (July 2018)
#15 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 6 deaths (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18) 

MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 18,804 structures destroyed (November 2018)
#2 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 5,636 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#7 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 1,604 structures destroyed (July 2018)
#8 Woosley Fire (Los Angeles/Ventura): 1,500 structures destroyed (November 2018)
#9 Nuns Fire (Sonoma): 1,353 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#10 Thomas Fire (Ventura/Santa Barbara): 1,063 structures destroyed (December 2017)
#14 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 783 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#20 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 546 structures destroyed (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18)

THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):

  • Fatalities: 125
  • Structures: 31,321 structures destroyed (excluding "minor structures" i.e. guest houses/"granny" units, barns) 

HELP IS AVAILABLE:

Butte County Recovery Community Meeting

Butte County and the Town of Paradise are partnering with other local, state, and federal agencies to host a community meeting for fire survivors to provide an update on search and recovery efforts and discuss available resources.

Representatives from multiple agencies coordinating recovery efforts will be present to offer information and answer questions from the community. Please arrive early as the meeting will start promptly at 7 p.m.

Date: Thursday, November 29, 2018

Time: 7 – 9 p.m.

Pleasant Valley High School Performing Arts Center
1475 East Ave, Chico CA

Free Parking
First Come, First Served

The meeting will be livestreamed on the Facebook page of California's Office of Emergency Services.

NEXT TIME: For the Los Angeles Times, Patrick McGreevy writes up a legislative hearing yesterday that looked at warning systems and evacuation procedures in wildfires like the fast-moving Camp Fire that destroyed Paradise.

THE LONG AND WINDING LEGAL ROAD: In the Union-Tribune, Rob Nikolewski reports that San Diego Gas and Electric has appealed an appellate court refusal to review a 5-0 Public Utilities Commission that blocked the utility from passing along $379 million in 2007 wildfire costs to ratepayers. 

This highlights the stickiness of wildfire liability. A fire occurs and insurers step in immediately for their policy-holders. The insurers then seek remuneration from the utility for liability. If unsuccessful, the insurer is on the hook, leading to premium increases or a hit to their bottom line and, thus, shareholders and employees. If successful, the utility is liable and either shareholders, ratepayers, or a combination thereof are on the hook. 

Of course, 2007 is under different law than 2017 and January 1, 2019 going forward. 2018, who knows?

Amidst a colossal human tragedy, we have a huge legal mess playing out in courtrooms and will for decades.

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

EAR TICKLER: On the Senate Democratic Caucus's Then There's California podcast, State Senator Henry Stern (D-Canoga Park) discusses the dual tragedies that hit his district this month--the Borderline shooting in Thousand Oaks and the Woosley Fire.

Happy Humpday! Normally, the week after Thanksgiving is one big tryptophan fest, but things are simply cray-cray.

Here's a look at the "new faces" doc I will send to Nooner Premium subscribers on Monday when the Legislature convenes for the 2019-20 session. Okay, Tom Umberg is only a new face to the young'ns, but you get the picture of what I am putting together. This is the quick version, with the more detailed two-pager for each member that I'm working on, which will have the final election results and more information about the district and member. Election results are certified on December 14.

New members sample

BALLOT UPDATE as of November 26, 2018

  • Vote-by-mail: 152,348
  • Provisional: 379,700
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 25,383
  • Other (i.e. damaged): 22,344
  • Total: 579,775

TURNOUT as of November 26, 2018

  • Eligible to register: 25,200,451
  • Registered voters as of 10/22: 19,696,371
  • Ballots tallied: 12,173,501
  • Turnout of eligible: 48.30%
  • Turnout of registered: 61.80% 
Outlook
(as of 11/27/18)
  U.S. House of Representatives State Assembly State Senate
As of Nov. 6, 2018 39 Democrats
14 Republicans
55 Democrats
25 Republicans
26 Democrats
14 Republicans
After Nov. 6, 2018 46 Democrats
7 Republicans
60 Democrats
19 Republicans
1 Toss-up (AD77)
29 Democrats
11 Republicans 

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO... 

  • CA21 (Kings): TJ Cox (D) 56,426 (50.2%), *David Valadao (R) 55,920 (49.8%)
  • AD77 (North San Diego): *Brian Maienschein (R)  98,205 (50.2%), Sunday Gover (D) 97,341 (49.8%) 

DE LEÓN AND LA-LA LAND - OK...OK...WHAT'S NEXT: While there were a couple of rough spots, like when he criticized Dianne Feinstein's handling of the Kavanaugh accusations, most observers judge State Senator Kevin de León's performance in the U.S. Senate campaign positively. He didn't have much money or opportunity for free media via debates, but right now has 4,860,859 (45.7%) votes, nearly 300,000 more than were cast for GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox.

On Friday night at midnight, the high profile legislator is out of a job. But, anybody who knows him knows that he is not out of politics. Instead, the ill-fortunes of Los Angeles city councilman José Huizar may have opened the door for de León's next step. Huizar represents downtown, Boyle Heights, Highland Park and environs and is termed out in 2020. José's plan had been that his successor would be his wife, Richelle Rios. However, the FBI recently raided two of Huizar's offices and the couple's home. While the specifics of the investigation are not disclosed, they appear to center around campaign finance. Huizar has been stripped of his city council committee assignments, and recently missed several meetings.

Rios has dropped her bid for the 2020 City Council race and de León appears to now have his eye on it. de León lives in Gil Cedillo's council district 1 and has another term left, so a de León bid would require him to establish a new residence, although that is now easier to do under the bill passed and signed by Governor Brown this year.

But, would city council sate the appetite of de León after serving as President Pro Tem of the State Senate and a statewide candidate who garnered significant grass roots support and is in the top tier of California Latino politicians? Likely not. 

In 2022, Eric Garcetti is term-limited as mayor of the City of Angels, and the seat is wide open. Councilmember and former Assembly Speaker Herb Wesson would like it, but many believe his better bet is for Mark Ridley-Thomas's seat on the county Board of Supervisors that same year, a safer political bet for what is seen as a top office. With MRT's son Sebastian's departure from the Assembly on health and other grounds, it is unlikely the seat will stay in the family.

And, that leaves the opening for a strong candidacy of KDL for mayor in 2022. There are lots of local political leaders who would like to see the city's first female mayor, particularly after the 2013 loss by Greuel. However, the council is 13 men and two women. The city attorney and controller are both men. The biggest possibility would be Supervisor Janice Hahn, for whom 2022 would be a free ride. However, she likely would win easy re-election in 2024 for a final term on the board. She will be 72 in 2024 and may be looking for a final election after 23 years in politics at that point.

I never like talking about age and an 80-year-old was just elected to the Board of Equalization, but mayor of Los Angeles is a pretty exhausting job. I know I'd be content with a safe seat on the county board at that point.

Being mayor of Los Angeles has its risk and rewards. The role immediately lands the officeholder on the list of the nation's major political figures, as Garcetti is experiencing now. Garcetti was not necessarily a political star when he was elected in 2013, narrowly winning a runoff against then city controller Wendy Greuel.

However, the cost can be big if the timing is wrong, as Antonio Villaraigosa experienced. Villaraigosa's mayoral reign occurred during the deep recession leading to large budget cuts that hit city employees. Villaraigosa, who had been a darling of labor with a background as an organizer for United Teachers Los Angeles, suddenly found backs turned to him. That was amplified by his embrace of charter schools as a possible solution to the city's most ailing schools. 

Despite big spending by supporters of charter schools Villaraigosa ended up placing third in the 2018 gubernatorial primary and has now joined the lobbying/public affairs powerhouse Mercury.

The question for de León is whether the good economic times will continue through the decade of 2020. Garcetti has been lucky and Villaraigosa wasn't. Both have had good and bad steps, but the overall political approval of a reign has a strong correlation with the economy. A recession could hit and be gone by 2022 or the current economic environment could continue and a downturn could be after that. Anyone who says they know for certain is a liar.

Obviously, the chatter about Garcetti is about a potential bid for President. He makes an intriguing candidate as the city's first Jewish mayor and as a Mexican-American. However, while he is an attractive draw right now when he shows up in early caucus and primary states, the starting gates are full with promising ponies. He doesn't really have anything to lose in a respectable run. After all, look at California's outgoing governor.

Whether or not he decides on a winter in New Hampshire and Iowa, Garcetti's more likely play is a run for governor in 2026, a mayor-to-governor play a la Carcetti. Los Angeles still stings from the losses by Tom Bradley in 1982 and 1986 and would love to occupy the office.

For both Garcetti and de León, there is a huge shiny thing in respective possible runs for governor and mayor--the 2028 Olympics. Los Angeles will be the world's focus again after a 44-year absence while looking at cities around the world. The 1984 Olympics were one of the biggest successes of the international sporting and cultural event, even though they were boycotted by the Soviet Union and allied Eastern Bloc countries.

However, the event left the city in the black with extraordinary sponsorship fundraising and existing city facilities, and warnings of horrific traffic led to much better traffic than usual. It launched the political career of businessman Richard Riordan, who would succeed Tom Bradley for two terms as mayor and serve as Arnold Schwarzenegger's secretary for education. 

Unfortunately, the city was badly bruised only eight years later with the Los Angeles riots following the Rodney King beating and trial of Los Angeles police officers. 

For 2028, the city is even more prepared, with numerous largely privately constructed facilities in a relatively close proximity. Downtown Los Angeles is no longer an abyss after business hours and on weekends with new hotels and restaurants. Los Angeles is preparing to expand its convention center and this will perhaps be the biggest international marketing event the city has ever had. Of course, like California's other large cities, there's still a big problem with homelessness that needs to be tackled before the global cameras converge on the City of Angels.

In short, Eric Garcetti and Kevin de León would love to be on that international stage for the Games of the XXXIV Olympiad 2028 in their city of birth, Los Angeles. They will be 57 and 60 respectively and it would be a major highlight of successful political careers, and there is a path for it to happen. 

More below the jump... 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: Disability Rights California: senior legislative advocate
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Political, Legislative and Regulatory Strategist/Analyst
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

THE OTHER CAPITOL: For the Los Angeles Times, Sarah D. Wire reports that Oakland congresswoman Barbara Lee is hoping to become the first African-American woman to serve in House leadership. "Lee, of Oakland, faces Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York in the race to lead the [House Democratic Caucus] for the next two years. Both are members of the Congressional Black Caucus."

"While not the most powerful position in House leadership, running the House Democratic Caucus is the fifth-highest ranked leadership position. The caucus chair is in the room where decisions are made and plays a role in deciding Democrats’ legislative strategy. It’s also commonly seen as a launching point for further moves up the leadership ladder."

Pete Aguilar (D-CA31) is running for Caucus Vice Chair, hoping to succeed Linda Sanchez (D-CA38) in the role. The vote is expected around 2:30 EST, when I'll be on a Jump bike over to the Open California/Capitol Weekly board meeting.

THE BORDER: NPR fact checks what's really happening at the border.

Joel Fox weighs in on the crisis in a reasonable manner "Speed in dealing with the amnesty requests is the answer. Resources should be dedicated to expedite the process but also the law must be followed. Allow those who truly deserve amnesty into the country but don’t open the door to all who seek entry by extralegal means." The U-T's Michael Smolens writes that the crisis could provide an opportunity for Tijuana, which actually has a labor shortage. It's just a challenge to get migrants to refocus their hopes of entering the United States with staying in Mexíco, at least for the time being. 

Cartoonist Mark Fiore gives the "immigrant crossing" warning signs along the SoCal north-south freeways a new look for KQED.

President Trump is doubling-down on his demand funding for the border wall, threatening a of a government shutdown if he doesn't get at least $5 billion. Politico's Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer report:

"Nine days ahead of a deadline that could trigger a partial government shutdown, with no solution in sight, the president told POLITICO in a Tuesday Oval Office interview that he is unflinchingly firm Congress must send him a bill approving $5 billion for his wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, and said he would "totally be willing" to shut down the government if he doesn't get it. Democratic leaders — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) — have said they would approve $1.6 billion for the wall, placing the two sides billions of dollars apart as the lame-duck session begins.

Raising the stakes even higher for the GOP, Trump said the $5 billion would only cover the physical border. "The number is larger for border security," he said."

Border wall polling Look at the number among Independents. The California GOP needs to ignore the Republican column. That's the party's primary voters. Those that it has lost and are thus losing generals are independents. It can't win on self-identified Republicans alone. 

While that's all adults, the numbers really aren't much better among likely voters.

Meanwhile, the "fun" isn't limited to California's Republicans. Dan Walters writes for CALmatters that Democratic Party's dominance in California is bringing about more internecine fights and looks at the response to the sexual harassment allegations against party chair Eric Bauman, who has temporarily stepped down for an independent investigation.

PRETTY PICTURES: CALmatters's Ben Christopher looks at "California's GOP congressional map: whiter, less-educated, less well-off, Trumpier."

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Sasha Horwitz, Emmie Johnson, and Kathryn Scott!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Disability Rights California
    We are seeking a Senior or Experienced Legislative Advocate for an aggressive disability rights organization. Join a lobbying team to advocate on issues that impact Californians with disabilities. Experience in special education and housing accessibility issues a plus. Salary based on experience. Apply here. Deadline is 12/7/2018.

  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • POLITICAL, LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST/ANALYST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5. Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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Ronald D. Vitiello, a veteran law enforcement official whom the president tapped to run ICE, faced criticism at his Senate confirmation hearing this month.

Senate panel delays confirmation vote on Trump’s nominee to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement, citing unspecified concerns
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Ronald D. Vitiello, a veteran law enforcement official whom the president tapped to run ICE, faced criticism at his Senate confirmation hearing earlier this month after he refused to rule out the possibility that the Trump administration would resort again to separating migrant parents and children at the U.S.-Mexico border. This is a developing story. […]

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Vice President Pence cast the tiebreaking vote to help move his nomination. Farr has defended voting laws that a court ruled were designed to disenfranchise minority voters.

Pompeo: There Is 'no Direct Reporting' Showing Crown Prince Ordered Khashoggi Killing - Politico

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Trump Appears To Accuse Rosenstein Of Treason In Tweeted Meme - Politico

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