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FIRES: The number of unaccounted for individuals in the Camp Fire now stands at 203, according to the Butte County Sheriff's Office. This was mostly from cleaning up of the list. No morning update was issued this morning.
DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:
#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 88 deaths (November 2018)
MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:
#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 14,500 structures destroyed (November 2018)
THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):
Meanwhile, Katie Hill flipped a Republican district, CA25 (Santa Clarita/Palmdale), one of several LGBTQ candidates across the country who were victorious this month. And, nobody can forget what launched Dianne Feinstein's statewide political career.
Today is "Giving Tuesday," which I surmise is like confession after a Vegas bachelor/bachelorette party. Anyway, here is my list of media-related nonprofits to support, and most have a doubling of gifts from matching donors today. When giving, I encourage you to write something like "For great state government and political coverage." It's not a restricted contribution, but send a message about the great work we are seeing from these great journalists. Each of these are tax deductible.
CA DEM UPDATE: Following allegations of sexual harassment and the launch of an independent investigation, California Democratic Party chair Eric Bauman has taken a leave of absence.
THE BLUE WAVE IN ORANGE COUNTY: Yesterday, Gavin Newsom took the lead over Republican John Cox in votes for governor in Orange County. Contrast that with 2014, Neel Kashkari (R) beat Jerry Brown (D) in his re-election bid by 11.2%, and Brown didn't have "San Francisco liberal" hanging around his neck.
The GOP consultants and insiders I have been talking to acknowledge that they got their asses kicked on the ground by Democrats. The question is whether those lessons will be remembered and acted on. Both parties have been "great" at acknowledging problems while going back to old playbooks. Democrats played it differently this year, largely led by a crew of political newbie congressional candidates who raised incredible amounts of money, which was wisely deployed.
Congressman Jeff Denham (R-CA10) was on CNN this morning and suggested California needed to look at the validity of provisional votes. It's worth noting that, of the 7 flips by Democrats, only CA21 did so on provisional ballots. The other six, including Denham's seat, did so with the combination of polling place voters and vote-by-mail ballots--not new "conditional voters."
I laid out the order in which ballots are counted a week ago Saturday. It's methodical and done according to law. There are observers on the ground from both parties and campaigns watching the count and at this point, I have seen no formal objection despite widespread allegations on social media and, yes, CNN.
Please don't take this as partisan, as Democrats have raised the voter fraud in other states in cases with varying veracity. I only speak about California because, well, y'all give me plenty to keep my hands full.
A DIVERSE DELEGATION: If current results hold:
It's also a very highly educated group of political newcomers--three Ivies, Duke, and other great schools, and I'm talking about you CSUN Matadors! Don't dismiss Cisneros as an empty suit who won the lottery. He has an MBA from Brown.
THE NOONER ELECTION CONTEST! I re-ran The Nooner Election Contest this morning and the likely flip in CA21 has changed the scores of several people. CA21 was a 7-point question. If CA21 holds, that leaves only AD77 (N. San Diego), which is a ten-point question that could move someone into the top three!
I sent out the updated individual scoresheet links this morning to participants. If you didn't receive yours, email me.
BALLOT UPDATE as of November 26, 2018
TURNOUT as of November 26, 2018
AND THEN THERE WERE TWO... Last night, CA21 flipped and is on a trend to stay that way. Congressman David Valadao was scheduled to host a fundraiser today for recount costs, but it was abruptly canceled after the latest results came out. Meanwhile AD77 got closer. San Diego's next update will be Friday afternoon.
Here is my current projection on AD77, based on last night's results and San Diego's projected number of remaining ballots:
As I mentioned yesterday, I have updated voter registration data on AroundTheCapitol. Here are the changes between 2012 and 2018 for statewide races and Board of Equalization.
Today, let's look at the top ten "best" changes each for Democrats and Republicans among State Senate districts. The full spreadsheet for all districts is available in the Nooner Premum subscriber section. Not surprisingly, it's much the same as we saw with congressional districts, which is not a good picture for the GOP in 2020. Even in the "best" districts, Republicans are losing "market share" to NPP. This doesn't mean that districts are likely to flip. We've already have talked about that and will certainly have a lot more time to discuss.
More below the jump...
LITE GOV-ELECT: Capitol Weekly's Lisa Renner looks at what's ahead for the newly elected lieutenant governor, Eleni Kounalakis.
HISTORIC DOMINANCE: For the Sacramento Bee, Bryan Anderson writes that Democrats have not had this many seats in the State Senate (29) since 1962 and not in the State Assembly (60) since 1883. Of course, Vassar is there for the quote. “Voters gave Democrats an advantage in the Legislature that is unprecedented in modern times,” said Alex Vassar, legislative historian for the California State Library.
MONEY MATTERS: Ben Christopher looks at spending per vote on the ballot measures for CALmatters.
FOLLOW THE DOUGH: For Capitol Weekly, Jessica Hice looks at a new site that tries to connect campaign money with legislative activity.
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to John Hanna, Reyya Del Haro and Luis Marquez!
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POLITICO Playbook PM: Sneak peek: DCCC chair, exec director will take a victory lap tonight
And Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn says a bill to protect Robert Mueller's investigation could see a vote.
Trump, in Mississippi, Seeks to Shore Up Senate Candidate Engulfed in Controversy
The president offered an unabashed endorsement of Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is under fire over comments that seemed to embrace the stateâÂÂs racist history.
Senate plans vote on revoking U.S. support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen
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The vote is expected to come on the heels of a briefing by two Cabinet members this week. House lawmakers say they are being denied a similar briefing.
Democrats push to mobilize black Mississippi voters in racially charged Senate runoff
Republicans are nervous after stumbles by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, but Democratic candidate Mike Espy still faces steep odds in TuesdayâÂÂs election.
Someone hung nooses at the Mississippi Capitol on eve of ra CIA lly charged U.S. Senate runoff
It was an 11th-hour infusion of a potent racial symbol a day before a runoff that features a black candidate for U.S. Senate.
Contradicting Border Chief, Trump Claims 3 Officers ‘very Badly Hurt’ By Migrants - Politico
President Donald Trump, back on the campaign trail for the first time since the midterm elections, made a slew of dubious statements Monday about Central American migrants at the southern border.
On Politics With Lisa Lerer: A Choice for Mississippi
Mississippi voters face a test of their values and priorities in TuesdayâÂÂs Senate election. House Democrats and Nancy Pelosi face a test of their own Wednesday when they elect their new leadership.
Google Wants Its Donation Back From Hyde-smith Campaign - Politico
Google is asking Cindy Hyde-Smith for its campaign contribution back after the senator has been embroiled in several race-related controversies following the midterms earlier this month. | STR/AFP/Getty Images
House Republicans Unveil Giant Tax Package - Politico
House Republicans on Monday evening unexpectedly released a 297-page tax bill they hope to move during the lame-duck session of Congress.
White House: Trump Wants Trade Concessions From China At Xi Meeting - Politico
President Donald Trump on Monday told the Wall Street Journal in an interview that he expects to move forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent. | Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Democrats Try to Derail Judicial Nominee They Call a Vote Suppressor
Democrats are one vote short from derailing the nomination of a North Carolina judge who defended state voting rights laws that federal courts found targeted minorities.
Trump Claims 'heroes' Will Emerge From Mueller's Russia Probe - Politico
President Donald Trump on Tuesday continued to rail against Robert Mueller, attempting to sow doubt about the special counsel and his team, and suggesting that "heroes" will emerge from the investigation into Russian election meddling.
Mississippi Senate Runoff: Hereâ
The stateâÂÂs voters will decide between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy as their next senator.
Trump Judicial Pick Is One Defection Away From Failure - Politico
GOP leaders said they were working overtime to hold together the 50 of 51 GOP senators they will need without Sen. Jeff Flake's vote. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo
'You have to vote': Trump drags Hyde-Smith across the finish line
Democrat Mike Espy has momentum on the eve of the Mississippi special Senate election, but the race is Hyde-Smith's to lose.
Fact Check of the Day: Does the Ninth Circuit Have the Highest Reversal Rate in the Country?
This claim about the federal appeals court circuit, made by President Trump, a Republican senator and conservative pundits, is false by one metric and true by another.
Trump Says He Will Proceed With Chinese Tariff Escalation - Politico
The U.S. bought more than $522 billion worth of goods from China in 2017, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Trump has targeted China over allegations of intellectual property theft and accusations that Beijing forces companies to hand over technology to do business.
Gillum, Abrams speak out against controversial judicial nominee from North Carolina
The gubernatorial candidates from Florida and Georgia added their voices to civil rights groups opposing President TrumpâÂÂs nomination of Thomas Farr.
Mueller protection bill could get Senate vote
The move would pave the way to confirming more of TrumpâÂÂs judges.
'i Don't Believe It': Trump Dismisses Grim Government Report On Climate Change - Politico
Trump was asked by reporters if he had read the report, which was released on Friday in what critics said was an attempt to bury the news over a holiday weekend.
Freshman Dems Demand More Power From Pelosi - Politico
Many incoming freshmen, including some who were critical of Nancy Pelosi on the campaign trail, are now warming to the California Democrat. | Zach Gibson/Getty Images
Trump Warnings On Migrant Caravans Have 'come True,' Conway Says - Politico
Counselor to President Donald Trump Kellyanne Conway on Tuesday said that projectiles and rocks "were thrown at our brave men and women at the border." | AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta
Google joins list of companies seeking refund of campaign donation to Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith after â
Like Walmart, AT&T, Pfizer and other companies, Google asked for its donation back ahead of TuesdayâÂÂs election in Mississippi.