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FIRES: The number of unaccounted for individuals in the Camp Fire now stands at 203, according to the Butte County Sheriff's Office. This was mostly from cleaning up of the list. No morning update was issued this morning.

  • Camp Fire: 88 fatalities, 13,672 single-family residences, 282 multi-family residences, 514 commercial destroyed; 153,336 acres; 100% contained

DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 88 deaths (November 2018)
#4 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 22 deaths (October 2017)
#11 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 9 deaths (October 2017)
#14 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 7 deaths (July 2018)
#15 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 6 deaths (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18) 

MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 14,500 structures destroyed (November 2018)
#2 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 5,636 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#7 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 1,604 structures destroyed (July 2018)
#8 Woosley Fire (Los Angeles/Ventura): 1,500 structures destroyed (November 2018)
#9 Nuns Fire (Sonoma): 1,353 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#10 Thomas Fire (Ventura/Santa Barbara): 1,063 structures destroyed (December 2017)
#14 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 783 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#20 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 546 structures destroyed (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18)

THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):

  • Fatalities: 125
  • Structures: 26,985 structures destroyed (excluding "minor structures" i.e. guest houses/"granny" units, barns) 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

Hello, there, Noonerific people. Forty years ago today, Harvey Milk and George Moscone were assassinated by Dan White, and KQED's Scott Shafer reports for NPR. Mark Leno pens a perspective on Milk.

Meanwhile, Katie Hill flipped a Republican district, CA25 (Santa Clarita/Palmdale), one of several LGBTQ candidates across the country who were victorious this month. And, nobody can forget what launched  Dianne Feinstein's statewide political career.

Today is "Giving Tuesday," which I surmise is like confession after a Vegas bachelor/bachelorette party. Anyway, here is my list of media-related nonprofits to support, and most have a doubling of gifts from matching donors today. When giving, I encourage you to write something like "For great state government and political coverage." It's not a restricted contribution, but send a message about the great work we are seeing from these great journalists. Each of these are tax deductible.

CA DEM UPDATE: Following allegations of sexual harassment and the launch of an independent investigation, California Democratic Party chair Eric Bauman has taken a leave of absence.

THE BLUE WAVE IN ORANGE COUNTY: Yesterday, Gavin Newsom took the lead over Republican John Cox in votes for governor in Orange County. Contrast that with 2014, Neel Kashkari (R) beat Jerry Brown (D) in his re-election bid by 11.2%, and Brown didn't have "San Francisco liberal" hanging around his neck.

The GOP consultants and insiders I have been talking to acknowledge that they got their asses kicked on the ground by Democrats. The question is whether those lessons will be remembered and acted on. Both parties have been "great" at acknowledging problems while going back to old playbooks. Democrats played it differently this year, largely led by a crew of political newbie congressional candidates who raised incredible amounts of money, which was wisely deployed. 

Congressman Jeff Denham (R-CA10) was on CNN this morning and suggested California needed to look at the validity of provisional votes. It's worth noting that, of the 7 flips by Democrats, only CA21 did so on provisional ballots. The other six, including Denham's seat, did so with the combination of polling place voters and vote-by-mail ballots--not new "conditional voters." 

I laid out the order in which ballots are counted a week ago Saturday. It's methodical and done according to law. There are observers on the ground from both parties and campaigns watching the count and at this point, I have seen no formal objection despite widespread allegations on social media and, yes, CNN.

Please don't take this as partisan, as Democrats have raised the voter fraud in other states in cases with varying veracity. I only speak about California because, well, y'all give me plenty to keep my hands full.

A DIVERSE DELEGATION: If current results hold:

  • Seven GOP seats flip--2 by retirement and 5 by defeat. They were six white males and 1 white female.
  • The seven new members are five men and two women.
  • 2 Latino men, 1 Asian-American (Filipino, Chinese and white), 1 LGBTQ, and 1 single mother

It's also a very highly educated group of political newcomers--three Ivies, Duke, and other great schools, and I'm talking about you CSUN Matadors! Don't dismiss Cisneros as an empty suit who won the lottery. He has an MBA from Brown. 

THE NOONER ELECTION CONTEST! I re-ran The Nooner Election Contest this morning and the likely flip in CA21 has changed the scores of several people. CA21 was a 7-point question. If CA21 holds, that leaves only AD77 (N. San Diego), which is a ten-point question that could move someone into the top three!

I sent out the updated individual scoresheet links this morning to participants. If you didn't receive yours, email me.

Nooner Election Contest Scoreboard
before CA21 after CA21
Contest scoreboard before update Contest scoreboard after update

 

BALLOT UPDATE as of November 26, 2018

  • Vote-by-mail: 175,562
  • Provisional: 460,782
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 34,230
  • Other (i.e. damaged): 27,277
  • Total: 697,851

TURNOUT as of November 26, 2018

  • Eligible to register: 25,200,451
  • Registered voters as of 10/22: 19,696,371
  • Ballots tallied: 12,095,565
  • Turnout of eligible: 47.50%
  • Turnout of registered: 61.41% 
Outlook
(as of 11/26/18)
  U.S. House of Representatives State Assembly State Senate
As of Nov. 6, 2018 39 Democrats
14 Republicans
55 Democrats
25 Republicans
26 Democrats
14 Republicans
After Nov. 6, 2018 46 Democrats (CA21)
7 Republicans
60 Democrats
19 Republicans
1 Toss-up (AD77)
29 Democrats
11 Republicans 

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO... Last night, CA21 flipped and is on a trend to stay that way. Congressman David Valadao was scheduled to host a fundraiser today for recount costs, but it was abruptly canceled after the latest results came out. Meanwhile AD77 got closer. San Diego's next update will be Friday afternoon.

Here is my current projection on AD77, based on last night's results and San Diego's projected number of remaining ballots:

AD77 projection

  • CA21 (Kings): TJ Cox (D) 55,672 (50.2%), *David Valadao (R) 55,236 (49.8%)
  • AD77 (North San Diego): *Brian Maienschein (R)  98,205 (50.2%), Sunday Gover (D) 97,341 (49.8%) 

As I mentioned yesterday, I have updated voter registration data on AroundTheCapitol. Here are the changes between 2012 and 2018 for statewide races and Board of Equalization. 

 Change from 10/2012 to 10/2018
  Total Registered Democrats Republicans No Party Preference Other
Statewide 1,450,401 -0.21% -5.32% 6.85% -1.32%
BOE1 452,581 -1.26% -5.61% 6.94% -0.09%
BOE2 353,567 -0.37% -3.71% 5.26% -1.18%
BOE3 442,732 -0.78% -4.88% 9.49% -3.83%
BOE4 201,521 1.29% -7.06% 5.85% -0.09%

 

Today, let's look at the top ten "best" changes each for Democrats and Republicans among State Senate districts. The full spreadsheet for all districts is available in the Nooner Premum subscriber section. Not surprisingly, it's much the same as we saw with congressional districts, which is not a good picture for the GOP in 2020. Even in the "best" districts, Republicans are losing "market share" to NPP. This doesn't mean that districts are likely to flip. We've already have talked about that and will certainly have a lot more time to discuss.

 

 State Senate Districts - Best Democratic Registration Performance
Change from 10/2012 to 10/2018
  Total Registered Democrats Republicans No Party Preference Other
SD17
Santa Cruz-SLO
-28,606 7.24% -14.02% 7.79% -1.00%
SD31
Riverside
22,471 2.55% -10.45% 7.89% 0.00%
SD36
Carlsbad
3,633 2.29% -6.78% 4.51% -0.02%
SD29
Fullerton-Diamond Bar
-30,259 2.17% -6.33% 5.44% -1.29%
SD37
Irvine
-36,255 2.10% -6.69% 5.02% -0.43%
SD39
San Diego
42,980 1.35% -5.71% 4.51% -0.16%
SD34
Westminster-Santa Ana
-37,638 1.17% -6.77% 6.29% -0.69%
SD19
Santa Barbara/Ventura
31,654 1.09% -5.98% 5.31% -0.42%
SD25
Pasadena
32,304 0.96% -6.11% 8.66% -3.51%
SD23
Redlands
44,808 0.95% -6.25% 5.20% 0.10%
Bolded rows are up in 2020.

 

 State Senate Districts - Best Republican Registration Performance
Change from 10/2012 to 10/2018
  Total Registered Democrats Republicans No Party Preference Other
SD30
Culver City
77,554 -4.61% -2.08% 11.24% -4.55%
SD11
San Francisco
8,488 0.72% -2.10% 2.45% -1.07%
SD09
Oakland
53,502 -0.46% -2.45% 7.67% -4.77%
SD35
LA South Bay
52,200 -4.66% -2.75% 10.85% -3.43%
SD02
North Coast
11,409 0.68% -3.17% 3.14% -0.65%
SD24
East Los Angeles
80,236 -1.12% -3.54% 10.04% -5.37%
SD10
Hywd-Frmnt-Snta Clra
35,799 -1.64% -3.74% 8.62% -3.25%
SD03
Napa/Yolano
44,843 -1.24% -3.90% 5.10% 0.05%
SD01
Northeast Cal
40,396 -0.57% -3.90% 2.16% 2.30%
SD01
North Coast
47,857   -2.45% -3.96%  11.00%  -4.58% 
Bolded rows are up in 2020.

 

More below the jump... 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Political, Legislative and Regulatory Strategist/Analyst
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

LITE GOV-ELECT: Capitol Weekly's Lisa Renner looks at what's ahead for the newly elected lieutenant governor, Eleni Kounalakis.  

HISTORIC DOMINANCE: For the Sacramento Bee, Bryan Anderson writes that Democrats have not had this many seats in the State Senate (29) since 1962 and not in the State Assembly (60) since 1883. Of course, Vassar is there for the quote. “Voters gave Democrats an advantage in the Legislature that is unprecedented in modern times,” said Alex Vassar, legislative historian for the California State Library.

MONEY MATTERS: Ben Christopher looks at spending per vote on the ballot measures for CALmatters.

FOLLOW THE DOUGH: For Capitol Weekly, Jessica Hice looks at a new site that tries to connect campaign money with legislative activity. 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to John Hanna, Reyya Del Haro and Luis Marquez!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • POLITICAL, LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST/ANALYST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5. Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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signing up you agree to our @

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Jiankui He
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