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FIRES: In some rare good news, the number of missing in the Camp Fire dropped significantly yesterday and now stands at 296, according to the Butte County Sheriff's Office. This was mostly from cleaning up of the list. No morning update was issued this morning.
DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:
#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 85 deaths (November 2018) - active fire
MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:
#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 14,500 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):
Like after the Carr Fire in July, the Small Business Administration is on the ground with the Federal Emergency Management Association to aid individuals and businesses impacted by the Butte County Camp Fire. Here is the information and below are the introductory important grafs:
A Disaster Recovery Center, where survivors can speak face to face with FEMA, SBA and all other city, county, state, federal and nonprofit organizations, is located at the old Sears inside the Chico Mall, 1982 E. 20th Street in Chico. This center is open seven days a week from 9:00am-7:00pm (including Thanksgiving).
Happy Monday. Supposedly, you are all just shopping online today. That big bad store is teasing me with the new Instant Pot with WiFi at 40% off. Tempting, but my IP is usually 20 feet away from me. However, once session starts... Yesterday, my IP had pork shoulder, hard boiled eggs, beets, and squash duty. No, not all at the same time.
For those just rubbing their eyes from their tryptophan coma, you didn't miss anything over the weekend.
Okay, that's not really accurate. The California Democratic Party is in crisis management mode following the release of accusations, albeit not detailed, of sexual harassment and abuse by party chair Eric Bauman. I'm not going to rehash what I have written the last couple of days, so you can read Saturday and Sunday if you missed them.
Let's just say that the respite of fighting between wings of the party that mostly subsided after the June primary is over.
BALLOT UPDATE as of November 26, 2018
TURNOUT as of November 24, 2018
AND THEN THERE WERE TWO...
As I mentioned yesterday, I have updated voter registration data on AroundTheCapitol. Here are the changes between 2012 and 2018 for statewide races and Board of Equalization.
Today, let's look at the top ten "best" changes each for Democrats and Republicans among congressional district. The full spreadsheet for all districts is available in the Nooner Premum subscriber section.
Of these ten, five were flips from Republicans to Democrats this month--CA25, CA39, CA45, CA48, and CA49. The other flip, CA10 (Stanislaus), and the very possible flip CA21 (Kings/Kern/Fresno), lost both Democratic and Republican registration shares to NPP, but they are D+3.52% and D+16.14% respectively.
This is very good news for Democrats hoping to hold these seats in 2020, with the next shot being the 2022 mid-terms.
Let's look at the top ten for Republicans.
We all know that the California Republican Party has a brand problem and the discussion among GOP leaders is already widespread.
That said, these data are frankly beyond even my belief. Of the top 10 "best districts" among registration, the GOP has done the "least bad" in solid Dem districts in 9 out of 10 cases. They lost the least share in Nancy Pelosi's CA12, but there wasn't much to lose (as in most of these districts). CA12 is R-50.86% now, compared to -47.66% in 2012. In short, Republicans are performing the worst where they need success the most.
In contrast, the "best districts" for Democrats are in competitive districts. But, don't jump to a conclusion that this is a "Trump problem."
Let's look at Congressional District 45, where Katie Porter (D) just defeated Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R). It is typical of the suburban and rapidly diversifying districts the GOP is struggling with. In 2014, it gave a 17-point margin to Neel Kashkari, the Republican challenging Jerry Brown's reelection bid. In 2016, voters in CA45 voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 5.4%. We won't know how Gavin Newsom fared in the governor's race for the district for some time, but I'd bet he didn't win it, but by a margin somewhere in between Kashkari's 2014 showing and that of Clinton in 2016.
Some are quick to point to Trump for Mimi Walters's loss, pointing specifically at two big issues--the federal tax bill and pre-existing condition coverage under the Affordable Care Act. Those certainly provided fodder for Porter's campaign to launch toward Walters, but Republicans would be mistaken to blame the loss solely on a couple of issues or the style of the current occupant of The White House. Yes, the loss of share accelerated after he was the clear nominee, but the bleeding had already begun.
CA45 is still a GOP-leaning district, but only if the party can court the share of voters it has lost to "no party preference." Right now, Porter is ahead by 3.6% over Walters and, with 51,777 Democratic-leaning ballots left to count in Orange County, will likely win by over 4%.
It's widely known that Democrats executed the ground game in targeted districts better than Republicans. The majority party secured passage in 2016 by the Legislature of a change in law to allow any adult rather than specified relative or household member to pick up and deliver a vote-by-mail (VBM) ballot, and deployed troops to do so. Democrats were showered with a bevy of volunteers, for many of whom was the first time working in politics. Instead of "chasing" VBM ballots by phone bank as in the past, Dems put boots on the ground.
Like the new law or don't (and Republicans don't), it won't be changing anytime soon and the GOP needs to organize accordingly.
Of course, the bigger issue is the loss of NPP voters. Those can be split into a couple of categories. First, younger voters are more likely to eschew a party than their parents were. This has increased because of online and DMV registration. When college students first registered on campus, it was usually done by college activists or youth sent by parties to campus to register. Those signing up were often persuaded to join the party doing the registering. Now, "I'm already registered" is not just the old lie, it's more often reality.
And, I don't need to tell you that these younger NPP voters have a heavy tilt toward the Democrats.
That said, the other segment of NPP voters have little party identity. They are issues and values voters. By values, I don't mean that in the "Values Voter," strong conservative sense. Rather, I include within that style. And, that is where the Trump factor weighs in. Beyond issues, races across the nation show that Trump is losing the suburban independent voters, particularly college-educated women.
That tide working against California Republicans likely won't end in 2020, but it could ebb in 2022. Ironically, that is most likely if Democrats take over The White House, making that cycle the first midterm of an opposition President. And, we know that that means...
Meanwhile, the Republican Party can focus on how it executes on the ground. In a district like CA45, it still has an edge and now they aren't held responsible for House votes that prove to be a political liability.
More below the jump...
THE BORDER: Yesterday, was a miserable day for all involved at the San Ysidro border crossing where a breakaway group from "the caravan" attempted to breach the border crossing. Customs and Border Patrol officials responded by shutting the border and using rubber bullets and tear gas to dissuade those trying to cross. In the Union-Tribune, the team reports:
"The chaos left pedestrians on both sides of the border stranded, snarled freeway traffic for miles and prompted the closure of a nearby outlet mall on one of the busiest shopping days of the season, all as helicopters circled in the sky.
The confrontations highlighted the escalating tensions along the border as thousands of migrants from Central America poured into Tijuana in recent weeks seeking U.S. asylum. President Trump has pushed to keep any migrants in Mexico as they await the immigration process."
I'll leave the immigration debate to other fora. However, the impact on San Diego is huge to the extent that the already-strained San Ysidro crossing is closed or otherwise impeded. Here is an interesting article from last year on the cross-border daily business traffic.
"There are an estimated 350 million annual legal crossings on the U.S.-Mexico border, with San Ysidro as the busiest, with an average of 120,000 commuter vehicles, 6,000 trucks, and 63,000 pedestrians crossing daily.
A 2007 joint study by the San Diego Association of Governments and California Department of Transportation found that inefficiencies at entry points like San Ysidro cost $7.2 billion in lost economic output and 62,000 jobs on both sides of the “CaliBaja Binational Mega-Region,” as civic and business leaders have taken to calling the transborder metropolitan area.
The region is the most productive — and populous — along the U.S.-Mexico border, with 6.8 million people residing in CaliBaja, which encompasses San Diego and Imperial Counties and the state of Baja California, and a combined economic output of $220 billion. In comparison, the entire border, from east to west, has a population of 12 million."
It's not all SDSU Aztecs cruising over for a night of underage drinking.
2020: For the Washington Post, Karoun Demirjian and Seung Min Kim write that the losses by Democrats in the United States Senate this month may put a damper on the presidential hopes of California's Kamala Harris. Specifically, the committee membership of Senate Judiciary is likely to be a reduction of one Democrat, and Harris is the most junior Democrat. Harris supporters hope that either a deal can be struck with Senate Republicans or among the other Democratic members of the committee to save her position.
"In a Senate full of lawyers, Harris is seen as one of Democratic Party’s most talented interrogators — skills she put on display during the committee’s contentious hearing to address sexual assault allegations brought against Brett M. Kavanaugh, who eventually won Senate confirmation to the Supreme Court. She is also one of only two African Americans on the committee — the other being the Democrats’ next-most-junior member, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), who also has presidential aspirations.
Shortly after the midterm elections, Harris told Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) that she wanted to stay on the Judiciary panel, according to her spokeswoman, Lily Adams. For Democrats who have repeatedly pointed out that the Republican side of the dais is all male and all white, the prospect of losing Harris is anathema."
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Ray Bishop, Pete Conaty, Sean Doherty, Walter Hughes, and Jason Murphy, Bart Reed!
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On Politics: The Lame-Duck Session Looms
Lawmakers returning to Capitol Hill this week face a reckoning with the dreaded reality of a gridlocked Washington: critical, unresolved legislation.
Mia Love gives Trump no love as she concedes a narrow loss in Utah
The day after Election Day, the president criticized the Republican congresswoman for failing to embrace him during the campaign.
POLITICO Playbook PM: Trump loses his body guy, and thousands of GM jobs
And Jared Kushner worked to push a Saudi arms deal to $110 billion, ABC reports.
Mia Love: Trump Has 'no Real Relationships, Just Convenient Transactions' - Politico
Rep. Mia Love said President Donald Trump's criticism of her had given her new insight into his thinking. | Scott G Winterton/Deseret News, via AP, Pool
Trump Accuses Mueller Of Ignoring 2016 Staffers Who 'want To Be' Questioned - Politico
President Donald Trump has long labeled Robert Mueller's investigation a "witch hunt" and has complained that Mueller's nomination as special counsel was not approved by Congress. | Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images
Climate Change Coverage — 'how A Free Press Can Die' — Shine's Fox Payout — Joe And Mika Wed- Politico Media
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KUSHNER MEETS DAILY CALLER EDITORS: White House adviser Jared Kushner met with senior Daily Caller editors last week about his White House initiatives, including criminal justice reform, a source familiar with the meeting told Daniel Lippman. Daily Caller editor-in-chief Geoff Ingersoll said that senior editors were at the White House on Monday, but declined to discuss specifics. Daily Caller editorial director Vince Coglianese, who posted a picture of the White House on Instagram, declined to comment. A spokesman for Kushner also declined to comment.
House Dem: Impeaching Trump On Party Lines Would 'tear The Country Apart' - Politico
House Judiciary Committee ranking member Rep. Jerry Nadler indicated that he had yet to see evidence that impeaching President Donald Trump is warranted. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
How Southern politicians defended white supremacy â
Before the civil rights movement, Southern legislators cared a great deal more about preserving white supremacy than legislators from the rest of the country cared about democracy for all AmericaâÂÂs citizens.
Capitol Hill boys club braces for scores of new female members
From adding lactation stations to considering child care needs, Congress is rushing to adapt to a record number of women.
Conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi is at the center of the probe into whether the Trump campaign had preemptive knowledge of Russian election hacking.
Trump questions why Mueller hasnâ
In morning tweets, the president sought to cast doubt on an expected report from the special counsel investigating Russian election interference.
Lawmakers return this week to a host of pressing major issues, including a farm bill and a potential government shutdown, and a narrow window to act.
'We don't want an Alabama': Hyde-Smith has Republicans holding their breath
Democrat Mike Espy claims momentum in the final days of the Mississippi special Senate election, but Donald Trump heads to the state Monday to blunt it.
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Sen. Kamala Harris is the lowest-ranking member on the high-profile Senate Judiciary Committee, where absent some expert dealmaking, Democrats are set to lose a seat.
Trumbull County, Ohio, shifted 30 points to vote Trump. It didnâ
Trump swung two Midwest counties in part by pledging to revive their economies. Both just lost major GM facilities.
Centrist Democrats vow again to oppose Pelosi unless rules demands are met
Problem Solvers Caucus members said they arenâÂÂt giving in until they get guarantees that bipartisan legislation will more easily come to a vote.
The Health 202: Obamacare enrollment is lagging, despite cheaper options
That could pose a problem for the Trump administration.
POLITICO Playbook: Shutdown watch
And thereâÂÂs more good news for Nancy Pelosi in her speakership bid.
Trump Threatens Border Shutdown If Mexico Doesn't Remove Migrants - Politico
A Honduran woman rests with her granddaughter at a temporary shelter near U.S. border on in Tijuana, Mexico, on Nov 21, 2018. | Mario Tama/Getty Images
Power Up: Trump's full plate: Borders, climate change and the Mississippi Senate race
Here we go again.
Franken scandal haunts Gillibrandâ
âÂÂLet me tell you how strongly I felt about it âÂÂ I didnâÂÂt even vote for her in the recent election. I left it blank,âÂÂ said one top donor.
White House lacks lawyers to deal with empowered Democrats
The office has been without a permanent leader since October and top deputies are departing, leaving just a skeletal staff in place.
The Trailer: Mississippi Democrats have two campaign operations and an arithmetic problem
In this edition: The Democrats' bet on Mississippi, the party's problems in a rising star's district, the Southern ad wars, and the big week ahead for Bernie Sanders.
Trump's trusted body man to depart White House
Jordan Karem greets Trump in the morning, walks him to the residence at night and travels with him, straddling the president's personal and professional lives.
The New Old Age: Social Security Runs Short of Money and Ideas Fly on How to Repair It
As Social Security dips into its trust fund, policymakers propose changes to fix the programâÂÂs finances and strengthen its benefits, especially for women.