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FIRES: After yesterday's respite from fatalities, we have one more in the Camp Fire reported this morning. There are media reports of an additional two, but they are not reflected in this morning's CALFIRE update, which is what I use. The fire is now 100% contained.

  • Camp Fire: 85 fatalities, 13,672 single-family residences, 282 multi-family residences, 514 commercial destroyed; 153,336 acres; 100% contained

DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 85 deaths (November 2018) - active fire
#4 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 22 deaths (October 2017)
#11 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 9 deaths (October 2017)
#14 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 7 deaths (July 2018)
#15 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 6 deaths (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18) 

MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 14,500 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
#2 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 5,636 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#7 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 1,604 structures destroyed (July 2018)
#8 Woosley Fire (Los Angeles/Ventura): 1,500 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
#9 Nuns Fire (Sonoma): 1,353 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#10 Thomas Fire (Ventura/Santa Barbara): 1,063 structures destroyed (December 2017)
#14 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 783 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#20 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 546 structures destroyed (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/24/18)

THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):

  • Fatalities: 122
  • Structures: 26,985 structures destroyed (excluding "minor structures" i.e. guest houses/"granny" units, barns)

THE AFTERMATH: In the Los Angeles Times, Anna M. Phillips writes that the problem for evacuees now is finding housing in the region of the Camp Fire for the long, cold, and (hopefully) wet winter ahead.

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

Well, happy Sunday to you. It should be a nice day throughout California. Yes, that means that you're back on leaf-raking duty. Just a few notes this morning before I get my dharma on at church and fill up my bags at farmers market. 

Last night, I finally got around to importing the October 22 voter registration date, which is now displayed on the district pages, as well as on the voter registration trends by district pages and the sortable voter registration statistics. Nooner Premium users can download the latest data for all districts in the subscribers section. If you forgot or haven't set a password, just click on "Forgot Password" on that page.

There was an oddity in the data that I had never noticed before. There is a congressional district that has part of a county, but has zero registered voters. It routinely appears on registration and election reports with all zeroes.

It is CA13, Barbara Lee's East Bay seat. Due to an interesting history, the City and County of San Francisco includes a slice of land on the island of Alameda that is part of the shuttered Alameda Naval Air Station. That piece of land is split between CA13 and Nancy Pelosi's CA12, but has nobody living on it.

Kudos to @Ricki_Wells for sharing this KQED Bay Curious piece on the history of the Alameda land!

DEMOCRATIC DISARRAY: Following up on yesterday's item regarding sexual harassment allegations against California Democratic Party chair Eric Bauman, and calls for his removal, let's just say that things are ugly and likely to get uglier. There may be more dirty laundry against both Bauman and Congressman Ro Khanna, who publicized the complaint that was made by party Second Vice-Chair Daraka Larimore-Hall.

Right after putting yesterday's Nooner to bed, Larimore-Hall sent out a lengthy email to executive board members of the party. In that email, he explains that the investigation has been ongoing (albeit, apparently internal), and includes complaints brought forth to Larimore-Hall by party staff and includes the word "assault."  

"In the days since the first brave souls have come forward, they have been joined by others with similar stories and experiences. I want to thank all of them for their trust and confidence in me, and most of all for speaking truth to power. I stand with them and I stand by them."

It is unclear whether party Secretary Jenny Bach has mailed the Statement of Charges submitted by Larimore-Hall to Bauman yet, as she has 7 days to do so. Bauman then has 10 days to file a formal response. 

There are conflicting reports as to whether Larimore-Hall was a private supporter of Kimberly Ellis or Bauman in 2017, while publicly neutral. It is also strange why staff went the political route through a second vice-chair rather than through an internal or external legal avenue. As I wrote yesterday, these issues against anyone in a supervisorial role must be independently investigated by an external party, as the Legislature is now doing.

Alleged victims need to be interviewed and a report needs to be provided to an appropriate body. The party's bylaws allows for a special committee created by the chair. I no longer am at all engaged with the party, but if I were, I would suggest a special committee of ten people, with each of the five officers appointing two.

While the officers beyond Larimore-Hall are more allies of Bauman than not, they are also people with political careers that would appoint people who would give a report from an independent attorney a fair shake if given the ability to ask questions of the attorney. No officers should be on that special committee. The special committee can then report on its findings to the Executive Board if Bauman is still in place and if the Statement of Charges by Daraka-More has not been withdrawn. 

As I said on social media, until that process takes place, everyone on all sides should STFU until a process is followed, for the sake of alleged victims, Bauman, and the party. Home gamers, if you don't know what STFU means, just put duct tape over your mouth.

I have no knowledge of the veracity of the complaints and, as we have seen from investigations in the Capitol, allegations against legislators have ranged from one unwelcome hug to dropping trou in a Vegas nightclub. The results have ranged from resignations to publicly embarrassing rebukes to and, in one case, a re-election with financial support from other female legislators while an investigation was ongoing. The point is that this is a spectrum and nothing is being solved by the crap on social media--on both sides.

Bauman has announced that independent counsel has been hired by the party from the firm Churchwell White to investigate the accusations from staff members. He states that he is fully cooperating and encourages those with concerns of his behavior to step forward and share it confidentially with that firm. I like Steve Churchwell and Doug White (who I went to undergrad with), although it is a law-lobbying firm that is seen as quite political (bipartisan). Hopefully that's not used against the party. Of course, most law firms in Sac have both law and lobbying operations.

I believe Bauman should also announce that a special committee is being created and that, while the investigation is taking place, each officer will appoint members. The names of the committee members should be public, but they should be the only ones who see the law firm's report and interact with the attorney. 

These are legal issues that could include liability and everyone should shut up in social media land. If they love the party, each time they hit "post" on either side could be at the detriment to the party they claim they love--politically and financially.

For now, the papers are all over it today and things are very ugly behind the scenes. But, you know, Democrats felt left out of all the November infighting taking place among their Republican brethren.

Meanwhile, as John Myers writes in the LAT this morning, the next campaign season is less than a year away.

BALLOT UPDATE as of November 21, 2018

  • Vote-by-mail: 286,233
  • Provisional: 694,609
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 39,038
  • Other (i.e. damaged): 28,021
  • Total: 1,047,901

TURNOUT as of November 24, 2018

  • Eligible to register: 25,200,451
  • Registered voters as of 10/22: 19,696,371
  • Ballots tallied: 11,853,912
  • Turnout of eligible: 47.04%
  • Turnout of registered: 60.18% 
Outlook
(as of 11/24/18)
  U.S. House of Representatives State Assembly State Senate
As of 11/06/2018 39 Democrats
14 Republicans
55 Democrats
25 Republicans
26 Democrats
14 Republicans
2019-20 45 Democrats
7 Republicans
1 Toss-up (CA21)
60 Democrats
19 Republicans
1 Toss-up (AD77)
29 Democrats
11 Republicans 

 

AND THEN THERE WERE TWO... 

  • CA21 (Kings): *David Valadao (R) 54,713 (50.2%), TJ Cox (D) 54,266 (49.8%)
  • AD77 (North San Diego): *Brian Maienschein (R)  95,146 (50.6%), Sunday Gover (D) 92,960 (49.4%) 

More below the jump... 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Education: Wharton School of Business: Executive MBA Informational Reception: Thursday, December 6
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Hospital Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Political, Legislative and Regulatory Strategist/Analyst
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: Victor Valley Community College Community College District: Vice President of Human Resources (Victorville)
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

GUESS WHO'S BACK... And you thought it was okay to turn the boob tube back on following the election. But, now Tom Steyer is back with his "need to impeach" ads as he contemplates a run for the nation's highest office. House Democrats aren't crazy about the return of the commercials, which had been paused as he focused his organization's efforts on youth voter turnout.

There are plenty of Democrats eager to vote "yes" on articles of impeachment even though removal from office by the United States Senate won't happen. However, Pelosi and strategists know that doing so in advance of a Mueller report or some other independent finding will be seen as political and not helpful to the surge of new members. Whether it be on the left with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or in a moderate-conservative district like CA10 with Josh Harder, none of these new candidates won on impeachment.

They won on pre-existing conditions, the perceived unfairness of the tax bill, infrastructure, and other concrete issues before Congress. The ads by the Patriot Majority USA PAC are focusing on that action agenda, in contrast to the Steyer ads.

Pelosi's camp knows that they need to focus on the issues of the campaign to lay the groundwork for holding the House in 2020 with this new cache of districts. An impeachment vote could come, but only after there is documented evidence that is seen as apolitical. Steyer is not helping House Democrats with his ads, but he is helping consultants and ad sales teams.

Whoa, I wrote this section before Steyer was on "Meet the Press" this morning.

THE ENTERING CLASS: For Politico, Heather Caygle finds seven incoming congressional Democrats to watch. Making the list from California is Harley Rouda (D-CA48). "Rouda’s victory helped secure a Democratic sweep of Orange County, once a Republican stronghold home to both Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. Now Rouda hopes to land a spot on the Transportation or Energy committees so he can focus on his main goal: pushing an infrastructure bill that addresses climate change, he said in an interview."

THE SCHITTMAN: Congressman Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) provided his usual even-headed presence on CNN's State of the Union this morning.

EDUWARS: For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at what is next for proponents of charter schools following their losses in the race for governor (Antonio Villaraigosa in the primary) and Superintendent of Public Instruction (Marshall Tuck in the general).

Probolsky Research  

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Zak Castillo-KringsKristina HamiltonJoel Olsson, and Gregg Solkovits!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Congressman Ro Khanna has six appointments to the Democratic State Central Committee, not three.

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • The Victor Valley Community College District is currently recruiting for the position of Vice President of Human Resources. First date of review is scheduled for December 20, 2018. [full job description and application]

    This positions will plan, organize, direct and supervise a comprehensive human resources program, including recruitment and selection, classification and pay, employee-employer relations, benefits, unemployment and record keeping; may provide general supervision for the district’s campus police and safety program; promote, direct, and implement programs to ensure equal employment opportunity, tolerance, and cultural awareness; assure compliance with applicable district policies and procedures, state and federal laws, codes and regulations; serve as chief negotiator.

  • Looking to make a real difference?  The California Hospital Association is seeking a full-time Legislative Advocate.  This position will be responsible for representing and advocating the interests, policies and issues of CHA on state legislation, including high priority and complex state legislation. For more information and to apply, visit www.calhospital.org/job-opportunities
  • Learn how you can earn the top ranked Wharton MBA right here on the West Coast, without putting your career on hold. Join Admissions Director Barbara Craft for an Information Reception on Thursday, December 6and learn what it takes to earn the Wharton MBA while continuing to live and work in Sacramento. Barbara will be joined by local students and alumni who will share their perspectives on why Wharton is worth the commute. This event will provide an overview of the admissions process and discuss what makes the Wharton program unique, followed by time to network and ask additional questions while enjoying light refreshments. Register for the event here.

    The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • POLITICAL, LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST/ANALYST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5. Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
The election is hardly over and yet California's next campaign season is less than a year away
John Myers @

More than a dozen Californians will win their first terms in the state Legislature or U.S. Congress if current election results hold, most for two-year terms in office. But they won’t even get half of that time — less than any freshmen lawmakers in more than a decade — to do the job before the pressure of fundraising, opponents and electoral politics begins to build again.

Klobuchar: Trump Has 'gut-punched' Immigration Reform Efforts - Politico

Trump also is staring down an impending clash with Congress over funding for his campaign-trail promise of a border wall, and has not ruled out shutting down the government if that money is not included in a must-pass government funding measure.

Lawmakers Disagree With Trump On Khashoggi Assessment - Politico

"I can say that I think the president is being dishonest with the American people," said. Rep. Adam Schiff. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Ex-Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos must report to prison Monday, judge orders

The judge rejected Papadopoulos's bid to delay the start of his 14-day sentence.

Trump Thanks 'president T' In Thanksgiving Weekend Tweet - Politico

Asked what he was most thankful for, Trump replied: "For having a great family and for having made a tremendous difference in this country. I've made a tremendous difference in the country. This country is so much stronger now than it was when I took office that you wouldn't believe it."

'Where do people go?': Camp fire makes California's housing crisis worse

Two weeks after California’s deadliest and most destructive wildfire sent thousands of evacuees fleeing the town of Paradise, “No Vacancy” signs have become a feature of the landscape here.

Politico Playbook: Trump’s Border Dealmaking - Politico

Good Sunday morning. The president is at Trump International Golf Course this morning, according to a pool report. He and first lady Melania Trump will leave Mar-a-Lago and fly back to Washington at 4:20 p.m. They are scheduled to return to the White House by 6:50 p.m.

Ernst: Congress, Trump Should Avoid Shutdown Over Border Wall - Politico

Sen. Joni Ernst also disagreed with the president on wanting to close the border, saying: "We would prefer that we keep it open." | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

New Hampshire political legend falls prey to Trump effect

'One of the great ironies is backlash against President Trump is likely to cost to Bill Gardner his job,' says one Republican.

Mexico Agrees To Hold Asylum Seekers At Border
Ian Kullgren @

Incoming Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will work with the Trump administration to keep asylum seekers out of the U.S. while their applications are pending in court, according to a Mexican official with knowledge of the talks.

New book by Trump advisers alleges that the president has 'embedded enemies'
Phillip Rucker @

Two of the president's longest-serving advisers allege in a new book that scores of officials inside the White House, Congress, the Justice Department and intelligence agencies are "embedded enemies of President Trump" working to stymie his agenda and delegitimize his presidency.

Lewandowski on scuffle with John Kelly: 'The Secret Service didn't break anything up'
Felicia Somnez @

Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski on Sunday acknowledged tensions with White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly but disputed that the Secret Service once had to break up a fight between the two earlier this year.

Cummings: Asylum Seekers Should Be Allowed In U.S. - Politico

"They should be allowed to come in, seek asylum, that's the law," said Rep. Elijah Cummings. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The 2018 blue wave included quite a few LGBT wins -- even though voters are still wary of gay and trans candidates.
Gabriel Magni and Andrew Reynolds @

The blue wave in the midterm elections had some rainbow in it. Democrats gained a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives, state houses and governorships -- and women, people of color and LGBTQ Americans were in front.

EU leaders approve 'best possible' Brexit deal
Charlie Cooper @

EU leaders approved a Brexit deal agreed with the U.K. government at a special summit Sunday, but warned that there could be no meaningful renegotiation of the agreement, even if the British parliament rejects it.

Obama Alumni Return to Washington, This Time as House Freshmen

Nearly a dozen incoming House freshmen served in previous presidential administrations. Eight from the Obama administration are determined to restore Mr. Obama’s legacy.

Trump called himself â

"Thank you President T," President T wrote on Twitter.

Judge Rejects George Papadopoulosâ

Last year, Mr. Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign adviser, pleaded guilty to lying to the F.B.I. He is slated to begin his 14-day sentence on Monday.

More Republicans challenge Trump on defense of Saudi crown prince
signing up you agree to our @

Conservative GOP senators say Trump’s repeated suggestions that Mohammed bin Salman was not involved in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi defies the intelligence they’ve seen.

Trump demands action to reduce deficit, pushes new deficit spending

The president is asking his aides to address the deficit, but his limits on what they can do have all but ruled out meaningful reduction.

Alabama GOP: Sessions not guaranteed to win back his old seat

The deposed attorney general would be the front-runner, and he remains popular in the state, but Trump remains a big X factor.

Gowdy: Avoid ‘carnival’ By Taping Comey Interview For Public To See - Politico

"I think the remedy is to videotape the deposition," said Rep. Trey Gowdy. | Zach Gibson/Getty Images

European Union to Britain: Lose-lose Brexit deal is best you will get



Papadopoulos Ordered To Jail Monday
Josh Gorstein @

A federal judge has rejected a last-ditch bid by former Trump campaign foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos to put off his looming but brief federal prison sentence.

Sasse Says Conversation Needed On Climate Change Solutions - Politico

"What the U.S. needs to do is participate in a long-term conversation about how you get to innovation," said Sen. Ben Sasse. | Nati Harnik/AP Photo