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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

  

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FIRES: The number of people missing in the Camp Fire now stands at 993, which is "good" news. That's a drop of nearly 300 with only one added to the toll of lives lost. The number of structures destroyed continues to surge in both fires.

However, the destruction report got much worse this morning, surging by 1,421 structures. The Camp Fire is now more than twice as destructive as the #2 wildfire in California recorded history, last October's Tubbs Fire in Napa and Sonoma counties.

  • Camp Fire: 77 fatalities, 11,713 single-family residences, 277 multi-family residences, 472 commercial destroyed; 14,500 structures threatened; 151,000 acres; 66% contained
  • Woolsey Fire: 3 fatalities, 1,500 structures destroyed; 96,949 acres; 94% contained 

DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 77 deaths (November 2018) - active fire
#4 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 22 deaths (October 2017)
#11 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 9 deaths (October 2017)
#14 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 7 deaths (July 2018)
#15 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 6 deaths (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/19/18) 

MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 12,462 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
#2 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 5,636 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#7 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 1,604 structures destroyed (July 2018)
#8 Woosley Fire (Los Angeles/Ventura): 1,452 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
#9 Nuns Fire (Sonoma): 1,353 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#10 Thomas Fire (Ventura/Santa Barbara): 1,063 structures destroyed (December 2017)
#14 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 783 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#20 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 546 structures destroyed (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/19/18)

THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):

  • Fatalities: 114
  • Structures: 13,929 structures destroyed (excluding "minor structures" i.e. guest houses/"granny" units, barns)

 

THE SECOND START: There has been talk about a mysterious second fire that began around the time of the "main" ignition beneath PG&E high voltage equipment, and now PG&E has notified regulators that it did have another power distribution line failure around 15 minutes after the first fire broke out, reports Matthias Gafni in the MercNews. 

THE HUMAN TRAGEDY: The LA Times team reports on the fluctuating number of missing persons in the Carr Fire and what the uncertainty is means to the survivors. 

THE CAPITOL IMPACT: In the Times, George Skelton looks at the challenges facing lawmakers, who thought they'd have a reprieve after the SB 901 vote. "Hopefully lawmakers will show up with creative ideas. But by then it could be flood season. Attention spans are short."

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Well, happy Monday to you. Yes, there may be truth to the rumor that I escaped politics and fires for a few hours yesterday, blasted holiday songs and cooked and cleaned. Don't judge...I wasn't doing so in Rudolph tightie-reddies--yet.

Regardless of how you feel about John Oliver, President Trump, or Jerry Brown, last night's opening comments about the President's "Paradise/Pleasure" mix-up and Brown's face was pretty damn funny. As someone posted, there needs to be a version of that video with thought bubbles over the governor's head. The only problem is that they would be in Latin.

If you took Nooner days off over the weekend, I don't blame you. Here are a few items you might have missed:

Saturday:

  • Nooner Election Contest Top 25 current standings
  • Joel Anderson's consolation prize?
  • The Assembly GOP's A-B-C loss and the impact on the caucus

Sunday

  • Camp Fire: The PG&E questions and the story of its spread
  • Orange County: Was the congressional catastrophe because of voter drop-off, cross-over, or simple abstention?
  • Understanding the long and winding ballot count: It makes total sense and no, the changes in leads were not provisional ballots or those from polling place conditional registrants. Those can't and mostly haven't been counted until after VBMs are tallied. Simply put, that's the only process to ensure that voters don't cast two ballots.

    Why is that not an issue in most other states? In most states, if grandma shows up to her old polling place and it has changed, she's out of luck if she can't find the correct one or the county office. In California, she can vote "provisional" at any polling place within the county. However, her provisional ballot can't be counted until all polling place and vote-by-mail ballots are counted.

    It's simple. It is not voter fraud. As GOP consultants I talk to concede that Democrats just played the game better and had far more volunteers to do the ballot chase.

  

BALLOT UPDATE as of November 16, 2018

  • Vote-by-mail: 1,003,793
  • Provisional: 958,541
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 55,764
  • Other (i.e. damaged): 56,057
  • Total: 2,074,155

 

Outlook
(as of 11/18/18)
  U.S. House of Representatives State Assembly State Senate
As of 11/06/2018 39 Democrats
14 Republicans
55 Democrats
25 Republicans
26 Democrats
14 Republicans
2019-20 45 Democrats
8 Republicans
60 Democrats
20 Republicans
28 Democrats
12 Republicans 

 

ELECTIONS: Tonight's update from Orange County could be key in SD34, where Senator Janet Nguyen  has a 1,179-vote lead over former assemblymember Tom Umberg (D). Nguyen leads in OC by a narrowing 50.9%-49.1%, but trails 45.5%-54.5% in Los Angeles County. LA is about 20% of the voters, so only a small narrowing in OC could be fatal for Nguyen. Simply put, Nguyen can't have another report like Friday's, which in OC broke 45%-55% against the GOP senator. LA next reports tomorrow.

 

AND THEN THERE WERE THREE... 

  • CA21 (Kings): *David Valadao (R) 51,175 (51.1%), TJ Cox (D) 48,997 (49.1%)
  • SD34 (Westminster-Santa Ana): Janet Nguyen (R) 121,940 (50.2%), Tom Umberg (D) 120,761 (49.8%)
  • AD77 (North San Diego): *Brian Maienschein (R) 86,595 (51.0%), Sunday Gover (D) 83,304 (49.0%) 

Over the next couple of days, I'll look at the polling and projections of congressional races. These are data I was tracking for Nooner Premium before the election.

Let's start today with CA10 (Stanislaus), CA21 (Kings), CA22 (Tulare) and CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale). 

CA10 (Stanislaus): *Jeff Denham (R) v. Josh Harder (D)

 

POLLING IN CA10 (Stanislaus)

 

NYT/Siena

Berkeley IGS

Average

Result as of 11/18

 

10/21-10/25

9/16-9/23

 

 

*Jeff Denham (R)

45%

50%

48%

48.6% 

Josh Harder (D)

47%

45%

46%

51.4% 

undecided

8%

5%

7%

 

 

ATC/Nooner Cook UVA/Sabato Roll Call/
Inside Elections
FiveThirtyEight CNN Result
Leans Dem Toss Up Toss Up Toss Up Likely Dem Toss Up Dem pick up

 

CA21 (Kings): TJ Cox (D) v. *David Valadao (R)

No recent public polls. 

 

ATC/Nooner Cook UVA/Sabato Roll Call/
Inside Elections
FiveThirtyEight CNN Result
Leans Rep Rep Likely Rep Likely Rep Likely Dem Likely Dem Close Race

 

CA22 (Tulare):  Andrew Janz (D) v. *Devin Nunes (R)

POLLING IN CA22

 

Berkeley IGS

Result as of 11/18

 

9/16-9/23

 

Andrew Janz (D)

45%

46.5%

*Devin Nunes (R)

53%

53.5%

undecided

2%

 


 

ATC/Nooner Cook UVA/Sabato Roll Call/
Inside Elections
FiveThirtyEight CNN Result
Likely Rep Likely Rep Likely Rep Safe Rep Likely Rep Likely Rep Rep 

 

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): Katie Hill (D) v. *Steve Knight (R)
 

POLLING IN CA25

 

NYT/Siena

Berkeley IGS

Average

Result as of 11/18

 

10/26-10/28

9/16-9/23

 

 

Katie Hill (D)

44%

50%

47%

53.2% 

*Steve Knight (R)

48%

46%

47%

46.8% 

undecided

8%

4%

6%

 


 

ATC/Nooner Cook UVA/Sabato Roll Call/
Inside Elections
FiveThirtyEight CNN Result
Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up Leans Dem Toss-up Dem pick up 

 

 

MONEY CAN'T BUY ME LOVE (SORT OF): In the Bee, Sophia Bollag writes that while supporters of charter schools spent millions this year, they lost big with Antonio Villaraigosa in June and Marshall Tuck in November. Of course, there was plenty of money working against their dough.

WAITING TO EXHALE: While ballots are still being counted for 2018, the 2020 campaign is underway. For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at what's ahead.

THE OC: For Voice of OC, Norberto Santana, Jr. writes "While the national Blue Wave fueled by President Trump was a key factor in the lopsided election results favoring Democrats here in Orange County, a deeper reading of the results points much more to energy than ideology." Santana continues:

"Candidates and activists who got out there and engaged – from our four new members of Congress, to our new District Attorney-elect Todd Spitzer, to the new council majorities in Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, to the wage initiative in Anaheim – they all won.

Incumbents that opted for the same, old, tired approach to campaigning here in Orange County – ie: avoiding any public debates or discussions and solely talking to their base through campaign mail – lost."

Dem political consultant Andrew Acosta tweets "4 years ago Orange County had just 640,000 voters show up in the elections.  That was 32% turnout.  Governor Brown lost by 11%. As of today - turnout was over 64%. Over 1 million voters.  Cox is beating Newsom by LESS than 10,000 votes. Still can't put my finger on it."

In the NY Times, Adam Nagourney and Jill Cowan write that House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (D-Bakersfield) focus on the gas tax and pushing for vulnerable members to vote for the President's tax bill may have led to the Orange County losses.

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: NorCal Cannabis: Political, Legislative and Regulatory Strategist/Analyst
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Lobbying: The California Rental Housing Association: lobbying RFP
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

CALIFORNIA, IRRELEVANT AS USUAL: While there was lots of talk in advance of the election about California's importance in Democrats' hope to retake the House, Capitol Weekly's John Howard reports that at the end of the day, the 6 seats Dems flipped in the Golden State were just gravy. After all, 

Of course, that gravy might just push Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) over the line to reclaim the title of Speaker.

HIGH HOPES: For the Bee, Alexei Koseff writes that, while governor-elect Gavin Newsom has pledged to reform the state's volatile tax structure, it is no easy task, which is why it hasn't been tackled by previous occupants of the corner office. 

"Newsom has not indicated what direction he would like to see a tax redesign go. He told reporters that “all of that needs to be brought to the table.” But any plan, which would need the approval of two-thirds of the Legislature, will require an enormous expenditure of his political capital."

 

 

Probolsky Research

  

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Senator Bob Hertzberg and Rachel Polish!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • The California Rental Housing Association (fresh off a win on Proposition 10) is looking for a lobbyist. For details please contact Russell Lowery at Russell@yourcea.com or call 916-710-2872. CalRHA represents 22,000 people who provide 500,000 homes for families across California. Are you interested in working with the Governor and Legislature on real solutions? Contact us today. [full description]

  • POLITICAL, LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY STRATEGIST/ANALYST – NorCal Cannabis
    NorCal Cannabis has been developing and shaping the legal cannabis industry since 2016. We are looking for spirited and motivated individual who will ensure NorCal Cannabis Company is engaged and strategic in its current regulations and future legislative changes affecting the company at the state and local level.

Responsibilities:

    • Legislative and regulatory tracking and strategy for California cannabis opportunities on a local and state level.
    • Support government relations and public affairs at the local and state level.
    • Follow and examine the legislation and regulations and provide detailed reports about how the legislation will influence the organization's activities.

      Please go to our website for the complete posting at norcalcann.com or email staffing@norcalcann.com with your resume and cover letter. 
  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5. Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  •  
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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