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FIRES: Last night, the number missing in the Camp Fire surged to over 1,011, from a previous estimate of around 150 and 631 Thursday night. These were largely from better cataloging of reports previous filed. At 826 structures destroyed, the SoCal Woosley Fire now makes the Top 20 list of most destructive wildfires in California recorded history.

DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 71 deaths (November 2018) - active fire
#4 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 22 deaths (October 2017)
#11 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 9 deaths (October 2017)
#14 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 7 deaths (July 2018)
#15 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 6 deaths (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/16/18) 

MOST DESTRUCTIVE WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA RECORDED HISTORY OVER THE LAST 13 MONTHS:

#1 Camp Fire (Butte): 9,070 structures destroyed (November 2018) - active fire
#2 Tubbs Fire (Napa/Sonoma): 5,636 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#7 Carr Fire (Shasta/Tehama/Trinity): 1,604 structures destroyed (July 2018)
#8 Nuns Fire (Sonoma): 1,353 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#9 Thomas Fire (Ventura/Santa Barbara): 1,063 structures destroyed (December 2017)
#13 Woosley Fire (Los Angeles/Ventura): 836 structures destroyed (November 2018)
#14 Atlas Fire (Napa/Solano): 783 structures destroyed (October 2017)
#20 Redwood Valley Fire (Mendocino): 546 structures destroyed (October 2017)

(source: CALFIRE plus Camp Fire incident update; as of 11/16/18)

THIRTEEN MONTH TALLY (only from top 20):

 

EAR TICKLER: On LAT's California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Marisa Lagos chat up the election results, which obviously are different than last week. 

¡Buenos dias mis amigos! My "e" key is being tempramental this morning. I've tried giving it coffee (which may have originally caused the problem), but it's still sluggish. For those of you who write for a living, you know how frustrating that it is. The "q" key never goes on strike. Meanwhile, the tech support hamsters are still in bed. 

Okay, now I'm in a truly bad mood after already having a tough morning. Nooner Force One just rebooted on its own, losing three hours of writing/updating. Okay, stop with the giggles about me working for three hours, but updating all these numbers takes awhile. I am totally serious that this happened as I turned my back to my desk to see President Trump step off Air Force One at Beale.

Thus, I am running late and some stories will get the write-up tomorrow (sorry Jeffes, Madrid, and Marinucci...I had given y'all treatment on the first draft).

On the season finale (boo hoo) episode of "Real Time with Bill Maher" last night, Rep. Eric Swalwell  (D-CA15) got the first segment seat to give his early pitch of why a relatively unknown congressman should be considered legit for the presidential nomination. He and Beto can have a handsome-down.

Last night, I sent Nooner Election Contest participants their draft scoresheets. Here is the current top 25 of the top 25 participants. We'll have to wait on CA21, SD34, and AD77 to declare it final. While I'm not ready to use the "toss-up" phrase, they are all approaching the center of the radar.

BIGGEST CONSOLATION PRIZE? The biggest surprise of the election in California thus far was in Board of Equalization district 4 (Orange/Riverside south), where State Senator Joel Anderson (R) lost to perennial candidate and former San Diego City Councilmember Mike Shaefer (D). It was probably the most under-the-radar race, and just shows how big the NPP break to Dems was. 

However, all is not lost to Anderson. You all know that Ammar Campa-Najjar's bid against indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter, Jr. was unsuccessful. You likely also know that Hunter is unlikely to be in office a year from now, but will likely will resign and forfeit future office in exchange for a reduced prison sentence for the and his wife over the campaign finance fraud charges. A resignation would trigger a special election 126-140 days after the procalamation, which would be within fourteen days of a resignation. The primary would be the Tuesday seven weeks prior.

Anderson is the clear favorite in a special, and the job is much better than serving on the eviscerated Board of Equalization. No, Dems, you don't have a chance. If Ammar couldn't win it against Hunter in November 2018 with his fundraising, organization, and passion, it won't be flipped in a 2019 special and likely even not in a 2020 presidential.  

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Outlook
(as of 11/17/18)
  U.S. House of Representatives State Assembly State Senate
As of 11/06/2018 39 Democrats
14 Republicans
55 Democrats
25 Republicans
26 Democrats
14 Republicans
2019-20 45 Democrats
8 Republicans
60 Democrats
20 Republicans
28 Democrats
12 Republicans 

 

ELECTIONS: Last night, it became clear that AD16 (Tri-Valley) would flip, with two-term Assemblymember Catharine Baker (R) conceding to fellow attorney Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D). Baker is well liked in Sacramento and many are sad to see her go. Of course, people can pick and choose individual votes and some have purely a partisan role. Stepping back though, look what the Assembly GOP lost last Tuesday (Chávez in the CA49 primary):

Acosta, Baker, Chávez...it's as easy as 1, 2, 3...

That's a big hit for those looking for a more "balanced" caucus, which is of course in the eye of the beholder. Critics of those who called them "squish" members need to realize that their loss makes the caucus less relevant. That's neither good for the caucus nor, I would proffer, for California. Leader-elect Marie Waldron has a tough row to hoe on her hands. It's actually a bigger challenge to be a player without the mods.

Democrats, don't gloat, as the same is true about your mods. 

Some of the social media discussions I am seeing are proclaiming all kinds of voter fraud with hordes of "illegals" showing up in Los Angeles County and filling out conditional registration ballots. That's b... bunk.

Let's look at the numbers:

 

BALLOT UPDATE as of November 16, 2018

BALLOT UPDATE  as of November 9, 2018

Simply put, the ordering of ballot counting is as such:

  1. Vote-by-mail received before Election Day
  2. Polling place (VBMs already crossed off the rolls)
  3. Vote-by-mail received on Election Day or postmarked thereon and received by Friday, November 9
  4. Damaged (can't be machine read and have to be re-created by elections staff with supervision)
  5. Provisional (after ensuring voter has not voted via an above method)
  6. Conditional provisional (after 1. validating new/re-registration and 2. ensuring voter has not voted via an above method)

Few counties have gotten to provisionals yet, let alone conditional provisionals.

The process ensures that only valid ballots are counted. Both parties have observers in election offices. There are lots of conspiracy theories out there, but we have good elections officials (elected nonpartisan, unlike many states) in Democratic and Republican counties.

I have yet to see a formal objection in California about the count and candidates falling on the short end are graciously and expeditiously conceding.

Meanwhile, results:

House of Representatives: 

State Senate: 

State Assembly: 

 

 

Probolsky Research

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