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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

  

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Wharton Executive MBA

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CHECK YOUR VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOT STATUS 

 

BALLOT UPDATE

  • Vote-by-mail: 3,459,665
  • Provisional: 1,032,942
  • Conditional Voter Registration Provisional: 55,036
  • Other (i.e. damaged): 81,285
  • Total: 4,628,928

SPORTS PAGE: Who is excited about Monday Night Football? 1-7 NYG @ 2-7 SF. I think I'll be busy washing my hair. ESPN is running ads just saying "Monday Night Football" without mentioning the teams!

 

It's Monday. We're sad as as the Camp Fire is now the most destructive and tied for the deadliest in California history. At 29, Camp ties the 1933 Griffith Park Fire incidentally, is one of several of the deadliest that did not involve any structures. The Los Angeles Times's Bob Pool wrote up the catastrophe in 2007. The victims were largely civilians on a Works Project Admistration project and firefighters. 

Ugh, a new incident, the Peak Fire, just broke out in the Santa Susana Pass next to the 118 less than a mile from my sister's house. Fortunately, it's burning toward the freeway and not down toward the residential area, and the neighborhoods have been through this scary situation before.

Let's have a better week and hope that cases of reported missing individuals are reunited with their loved ones.

 

FIRES:

  • Camp Fire: 29 deaths, 6,453 residences, 260 commercial destroyed; 15,500 structures threatened; 113,000 acres; 25% contained
  • Woolsey Fire: 2 deaths (believed to be related), 370 structures destroyed; 57,000 structures threatened; 91,572 acres; 20% contained. 

Food Network's Guy Fieri showed up at the Butte College staging area last night to law enforcement. As in the past, it was a surprise and the only media coverage was by the Butte County Sheriff's Office via Twitter. Fieri also did a lot for his hometown (and residence) of Santa Rosa and showed up at the Shasta College evacuation center in July.

CONTEST: Several of you have asked when the first Nooner Election Contest standings will be out. I think by the end of the week, since the universe of uncertains is at around five.

ELECTIONS: I have bolded changes from yesterday to district levels below. Remember, counting updates vary among counties, so in any district in multiple counties, don't consider day-to-day changes. Lots of people are looking at it and it is impossible to predict in close races. While 2% is often used as "close," it is like a margin of error. It can go either way, and obviously the larger the "sample," to greater the possibility that things can change.

Obviously, since there are district changes, there are to statewide races as well, although there are no changes in the overall results so far. Los Angeles will report tomorrow and Orange County will late today, which could be significant in both of these races.

On social media last night, lots of people were posting about Thurmond taking the lead from Tuck in the SPI race. However, that was due to a reporting error from Kern County (which also exaggerated the narrowing of the lead of Valadao in CA21). The numbers have since been corrected.

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Marshall Tuck (nonpartisan race) 3,539,406 (50.2%), Tony Thurmond (nonpartisan race) 3,509,982 (49.8%)

Insurance Commissioner: Ricardo Lara (D) 3,943,033 (51.0%), Steve Poizner (NPP) 3,793,029 (49.0%)

Board of Equalization 4 (south state): Joel Anderson (R) 967,367 (50.2%), Mike Schaefer (D) 959,876 (49.8%)

House of Representatives - The current California delegation is 39 Democrats and 14 Republicans. With the first significant late ballot returns last night, most analysts add four for the Democrats--CA10, CA25, CA48, and CA49. The remaining two in play are CA39 and CA45, which predictably with late ballots, are trending toward the Democratic candidates. Thus, the range for Democrats is 43-45, and correspondingly for Republicans it is 8-10. CA39 is more difficult to predict than CA45, as CA45 is pretty much partisan-predictable. CA39 adds ethnic issues that motivate candidate support, possibly in a way that supersedes party.

  • CA04 (Foothills): *Tom McClintock (R) 145,361 (55.2%), Jessica Morse (D) 118,052 (44.8%)
  • CA10 (Stanislaus): Josh Harder (D) 88,961 (50.9%), *Jeff Denham 85,743 (49.1%)
  • CA21 (Kings): *David Valadao (R) 43,469 (51.2%), TJ Cox (D) 41,390 (48.8%)
  • CA22 (Tulare): *Devin Nunes (R) 81,543 (55.2%), Andrew Janz (D) 66,277 (44.8%)
  • CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): Katie Hill (D) 90,298 (51.7%), *Steve Knight (R) 84,272 (48.3%)
  • CA39 (Fullerton): Young Kim (R) 87,924 (50.7%), Gil Cisneros (D) 85,501 (49.3%)
  • CA45 (Irvine): *Mimi Walters (R) 107,132 (50.5%), Katie Porter (D) 105,123 (49.5%)
  • CA48 (Hunt. Beach): Harley Rouda (D) 109,591 (52.0%), *Dana Rohrabacher (R) 105,047 (48.0%) 
  • CA49 (S. OC/N. SD Coast): Mike Levin (D) 116,817 (54.9%), Diane Harkey (R) 96,100 (45.1%)
  • CA50 (E. SD County): Duncan Hunter (R) 94,533 (53.2%), Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) 83,045 (46.8%)

State Senate  - Democrats went in to the cycle with 26, and will pick up two seats for 28. That is supermajority plus one. 

  • SD12 (Salinas-Merced): Anna Caballero (D) 72,034 (52.2%), Rob Poythress (R) 65,853 (47.8%)
  • SD14 (Fresno-Bakersfield): Melissa Hurtado (D) 53,459 (54.0%), *Andy Vidak (R) 45,532 (46.0%)
  • SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): Susan Rubio (D) 71,323 (52.3%), Mike Eng (D) 65,042 (47.7%)

State Assembly - Democrats start the cycle with 55, pick up two in AD40 and AD76, and are likely to pick up AD16, AD38, and AD74. If they hold on to their defensive plays in AD32 and AD60, they will enter the 2019-20 session with 60 votes. 

  • AD15 (Berkeley): Buffy Wicks (D) 75,811 (55.4%), Jovanka Beckles (D) 61,100 (44.6%)
  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): *Catharine Baker (R) 78,252 (50.2%), Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D) 77,625 (49.8%)
  • AD32 (Kings): *Rudy Salas (D) 31,461 (55.9%), Justin Mendes (R) 24,832 (44.1%)
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): *Dante Acosta (R) 68,518 (50.1%), Christy Smith (D) 68,305 (49.9%)
  • AD40 (Redlands): James Ramos (D) 50,901 (57.9%), Henry Gomez Nickel (R) 37,058 (42.1%)
  • AD60 (Corona): Bill Essayli (R) 28,687 (50.2%), *Sabrina Cervantes (D) 28,511 (49.8%)
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): Tyler Diep (R) 61,008 (53.4%), Josh Lowenthal (D) 53,286 (46.6%)
  • AD74 (Irvine): Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) 70,558 (50.7%), *Matthew Harper (R) 68,741 (49.5%)
  • AD76 (Oceanside): Tasha Boerner Horvath (D) 58,653 (55.6%), Elizabeth Warren (D) 46,839 (44.4%)

 

 More below the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The University of California Office of the President: Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its (Sacramento). 
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

SPLIT ROLL: Capitol Weekly's Lisa Renner looks at the upcoming fight  over whether commercial and industrial property should be treated differently from residential property. A "split roll" measure for education and local government has already qualified for the November 2020 ballot. 

Neither party wants to see a November 2020 costly fight over a complicated issue so there will be significant pressure on a deal by the Legislature 2019. It would need some acrobats of both a constitutional amendment to rescind the currently qualified measure and a separate one with a deal. Or, the compromise ends up on the November 2020 ballot as a competing "orphaned" measure, which was last done with a local government initiative qualified by the League of California Cities. When conflicting measures are on the ballot, the one with the highest number of votes takes effect. 

TAKING THE "LITE" OUT OF LiteGov? Georg Skelton writes in the Times that Eleni Kounalakis has the opportunity to give the office of lieutenant governor more meaning than just a stepping-stone to a run for governor, and takes for her families history to do so.

I do think it's a great opportunity for not just Eleni! but also Gavin. Eleni should tell Gavin that she would love to carry his message. Unlike the Brown-Newsom relationship, Schwarzenegger-Bustamante, Schwarzanegger-Garamendi, Davis-Bustamante, Wilson-Davis, Wilson-McCarthy, Deukmejian-McCarthy were.

Newsom and Kounalakis are both Bay Area progressives and were born seven months apart, he in San Francisco and she in Sacramento. They could have a complementary partnership, particularly if Newsom decides to remain living in Marin County where his four young kids are enrolled in school. He can do a fair amount of governing from the state office on Golden Gate Avenue in San Francisco. He can travel to Sacramento for major events and Eleni can attend to more frequent events in Sacramento. 

They could create a ticket-like partnership in a non-ticket state, which as I have opined it should be. Gavin is not one to share the spotlight, but I think it can be done in a way that doesn't take away from his star-power. It would also allow him to respond to big-ticket invitations on climate change, guns, and other issues on the national stage. He has an A-team already with Ann O'Leary as chief of staff and Ana Matasantos as cabinet secretary. There is no more budget "Big 5." We have teleconferencing now. He can be omnipresent.

I like Gavin. I try not to try to give him advice, but if I would have any for the governor-elect and Eleni, it would be to work as a team as if it were Obama-Biden or Reagan-Bush. Those seemed to work pretty well and we can break the dysfunctional situation we have in The Golden State.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to John de los Angeles, Marcos Bretón, Christopher Cabaldon, Sharon Cvetich, Wendy James, and Karen Keesler!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Of course, San Francisco was the only county to oppose Prop. 11 (on-call meal breaks for private ambulance employees).

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • WHY DOES CAPITOL SEMINARS DRAW PARTICIPANTS FROM ALL OVER CALIFORNIA? Because we offer comprehensive, cost-effective advocacy training you can put to immediate use. Our moderator, 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, and guest faculty are current practitioners in governmental advocacy or state government, and provide unique inside insights you won't find anywhere else. We're the No.1 advocacy training resource for nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, government entities and trade associations. Professionals in government relations, public affairs, public policy, public administration and allied fields know that our training helps advocates, support staff, and execs who hire and manage lobbyists work together more effectively. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8, April 4-5. Learn more / register at www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Associate Director of Strategy, Planning & Operations in its Sacramento Office. The position serves as a key member of the office’s management team, facilitates issue management across legislative, budgetary and advocacy portfolios, produces briefings, memos, reports and presentations on a variety of matters affecting the University, and directs special projects. Job requires strong knowledge of UC, the executive and legislative branches of California government and higher education policy. Bachelor’s or advanced degree in public policy-related fields and 7 years of related experience is preferred. Salary commensurate with experience.
     
    To apply, visit:
  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit apptrkr.com/1319417 and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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