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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!

Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 666 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

Seriously, my refresh to update this section today was exactly 666 on the Day of the Dead. All the doing of hamsters. If you look at the hamsters, the "sample size" are pretty flipping objective. You don't know how happy that makes me.

SPI Tony Thurmond (N) 58.23%
SPI Marshall Tuck (N) 41.61%

 

SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 58.76%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 41.07%

 

SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 57.29%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 42.71%

 

AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 55.77%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 44.06%

 

AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 58.83%
AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 41.17%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed. 

 

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E-4 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 42 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 3 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 38; Reps hold 9, including tough holds in CA04, CA21, CA22, and CA50
      - Dems pick up 3 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups in Knight (CA25), Open/Royce (CA39) and Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
      - While I have SD14 as Leans Rep, it's appearing very close
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat, Republicans hold 21, plus:
      likely Dem pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - lean Dem in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - lean Rep in Acosta (AD38) , and Harper AD74
      - toss-ups in Baker (AD16) and Open/Allen (AD72)

 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/30/2018 has Democrats+7.5. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 14.9% D, 85.1% R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 58.0%, de León 42.0% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein-0.1)
  • House control: 84.6% D, 15.4% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.2)
  • House seats: 233 D, 202 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: D+9.0% (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 Toss-up-CA39 (Change from yesterday: no change)  

ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:

  • mailed: 12,995,065 total: 5,654,960 Dem (44%), 3,205,659 Rep (25%), 4,134,446 NPP/other (32%)
  • returned: 2,836,268 total: Dem 1,229,935 (43%), Rep 940314 (33%), NPP/other 666,019 (23%) 

Full data:  statewide and local government | federal and state legislative districts

 

Conditional Voter Registration and Voting Continues

 

EAR TICKLERS: The team of Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos (and Guy Marzaroti in the booth) are in your ears with KQED's Political Breakdown podcast, while Ben Adler and Sally Schilling continue their look at the OC congressionals on CapPubRad's Keys to the House podcast.

SPORTS PAGE: Apparently, there was one of those international NFL games last night in Santa Clara. Someone forgot to tell the Raiders. Niners 34, Raiders 3. Niners had a first-time starting QB. U-G-L-Y, you ain't got alibi. I had a tweet liked on the game from Hunter Pence. It doesn't get better than that.

NOONER PREMIUM: I keep updating your memo even has I don't plague your email aggy with update memos. Email me if you're not getting it!

No está bien. No está mal. Solo es. Día de los Muertos.

CA48 has moved from Leans Dem to Toss-up on FiveThirtyEight. Love it or not, is the biggest aggregarters of all the polls. I was already Toss-up. This is the last graf I wrote today, so there may be inconsictencies. 

Our Nooner friends at Sabato's Crystal Ball made two California changes yesterday. They moved CA21 (Kings) from Likely Republican to Leans Republican and CA01 (Northeast CA) from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Both are the same as my ratings.

The independent race observers talk about what we see. I'm a bit more aggressive on race changes not because my national friends are timid, but because my universe is 157 this year in district races (don't forget BOE!). Also, the NRCC and DCCC and superPAC mavens don't call me when I make a change. Y'all email me and I welcome that.

Anyway, here's where my scorecard stands the Friday before the election. I'll send you the entirety of my best guess on Tuesday at noon, when the Nooner election contest closes.

Likelies are the stretch. If either party loses CA01 or CA16, that's a cluster. In fairness, Audrey Denney (D) in CA01 and Elizabeth Heng (R) in CA16 have run outstanding campaigns. At the close, I have to go with metrics. These are 99/100 safe seats for the parties that hold them. People like me, though, thrive on surprises.

All other races are safe for incumbents. Thus:

Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans 
Democrat seats in play: 1 likely D
Republican seats in play: 3 likely R, 2 lean R, 1 likely D, 2 lean D, 3 toss-ups

I'll give my guesses on all races on Tuesday when The Nooner election contest closes. As always, they are guesses and not necessarily how I voted.

POLL POSITION: NYT/Siena College polls: one done, one in progress.

CA45 (Irvine): [n=499; live call; MOE=4.6%]

  • Katie Porter (D): 48%
  • *Mimi Walters (R): 46%
  • undecided: 6%

President Trump job approval:

  • approve: 45%
  • disapprove: 49%
  • undecided: 6%

CA48 (Huntington Beach): With 392 interviews, the NYT/Siena poll is too weighted for the pollsters to share results. However, you can see them and the geographic distribution. The "live" poll started very ugly for Democrat challenger Harley Rouda, but has now changed. This is truly a WTF district. It's sort of fitting as I think even Congressman Dana Rohrabacher would say something along the lines of "yeah, I'm pro-Putin, pro-pot, and pro-surfing...WTF?"

Yeah, I went to community college in CA-Rohrabacher. He's an odd duck, but my fellow community college alum has held on because he has fit the district. That said, he has never seen competition like Harley this cycle. I'd say check back after you wake up from Thanksgiving for results. 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Reed and Davidson: Associate Attorney (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Glen Schaller, Paco Torres, and Naddir Vissanjy!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit apptrkr.com/1319417 and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gavin Newsom And John Cox Crisscross California In Final Stretch Of The Governor's Race
Dakota Smith, Phil Willon @
latimes.com
California gubernatorial candidates John Cox and Gavin Newsom barnstormed California on their respective tour buses Thursday, stopping to shake hands and pose for selfies with voters across the state in the final days of the race.

GOP Governor Describes Trump In 3 Words: ‘outrageous, Disgraceful And A Divider’ - Politico

Governor of Massachusetts Charlie Baker's ability to keep President Donald Trump at arm's length has enabled him to build a wide margin in his reelection campaign. | Nicholas Hunt/Getty Images for MGM Springfield

State Water Contractors
swc.org
Our Members

Dhs Secretary On Midterms: 'most Secure Election We’ve Ever Had' - Politico

Facebook and other social media giants have faced tough criticism from Capitol Hill and others over their attempts to tackle foreign influence campaigns, but DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen defended their efforts. | AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Is Trump's Constant Campaign Helping His Party? It Depends Where You Look
Noah Bierman, Eli Stokols @
latimes.com
President Trump's dominance in the midterm campaign forces Republicans to choose: ally with him, keep a distance or straddle. His strong but controversial pitch to supporters is Trump's idea, and reflects a White House focus on keeping the Senate even at the expense of the House. But is he helping?

North Dakota Voter ID Law Stands After Last-Ditch Lawsuit

Native American tribes and advocacy groups are now preparing for the possibility of fighting for provisional ballots to be counted after Election Day.

Most Americans Aren't Financially Healthy Despite Booming Economy, Survey Finds
James Rufus Koren @
latimes.com
Unemployment is low and the economy is growing at a healthy pace, but about three-quarters of Americans have financial problems, according to a survey released Thursday by USC and the nonprofit Center for Financial Services Innovation.

Trump and the media get an almost equal share of the blame for politically motivated violence in new Post-ABC poll

Almost 7 in 10 voters say reducing political divisions between people and groups in this country is an important issue in their midterm vote.