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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!

Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 645 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

IC Steve Poizner (N) 57.73%
IC Ricardo Lara (D) 42.11%

 

SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 58.16%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 41.67%

 

SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 57.45%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 42.55%

 

AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 55.15%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 44.67%

 

AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 59.23%
AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 40.77%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed. 

 

We Stand With Seniors

 

E-6 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 42 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 3 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 38; Reps hold 9, including tough holds in CA04, CA21, CA22, and CA50
      - Dems pick up 3 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups in Knight (CA25) Open/Royce (CA39) and Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
      - While I have SD14 as Leans Rep, it's appearing very close
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat, Republicans hold 21, plus:
      likely Dem pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - lean Dem in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - lean Rep in Acosta (AD38) , and Harper AD74
      - toss-ups in Baker (AD16) and Open/Allen (AD72)

 

Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/30/2018 has Democrats+7.5. (change from yesterday: D-0.1) 

For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 18.0% D, 82.0% R (Change from yesterday: R-0.3)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.5%, de León 40.5% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 85.2% D, 14.8% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.6)
  • House seats: 234 D, 201 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: D+8.9% (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 Toss-up-CA39 (Change from yesterday: no change)  

ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:

  • mailed: 12,963,459 total: 5,640,432 Dem (44%), 3,198,656 Rep (25%), 4,124,371 NPP/other (32%)
  • returned: 2,531,755 total: Dem 1,089,749 (43%), Rep 846,699 (33%), NPP/other 595,307 (24%) 

Full data:  statewide and local government | federal and state legislative districts

 

Conditional Voter Registration and Voting Continues

 

Boo! Happy Halloween Noonerific people!

I'll be candid, I have to seperate myself from the news as I wind down at the end of what are super long days right now. But y'all know about that. My normal routine is herbal tea and the NYT crossword. Last night, I decided to do something different and I made you a crossword. It's not a contest, results aren't saved, but hopefully these will be occasional respites of fun that are also somewhat educational on California politics and policy. 

So, here is the inaugural Nooner crossword.

Meanwhile, we have polls! Nooner Premium subscribers will receive polling w/ averages for these and congressional races this afternoon. This includes new ones beginning at $5 and I'll send this afternoon's to any new ones through tomorrow. Each of you should have received a special offer that ends at midnight tonight, so if you didn't, email me.

WHAT A MORNING!

POLLS POSITION: 

BERKELEY/IGS

This morning, the Berkeley Institute of Gov't Studies released its final poll before the election.

These are the only races polled, but does give us a glimpse at LG and IC.

Governor

  • Newsom (D) 58%
  • Cox (R) 40%
  • undecided 2%

United States Senate

  • Feinstein (D) 45%
  • de León 36%
  • und/will not vote 19%

Lieutenant Governor

  • Kounalakis (D) 45%
  • Hernandez (D) 31%
  • und/will not vote 24%

Insurance Commissioner

  • Poizner (NPP) 49%
  • Lara (D) 44%
  • und/will not vote 7%

Supt of Public Instruction (non-partisan)

  • Tuck 48%
  • Thurmond 36%
  • und/will not vote 16%

Prop 6 (gas tax repeal)

  • Yes: 40%
  • No 56%
  • undecided 4%

Prop 10 (rent control expansion)

  • Yes 35%
  • No 60%
  • undecided 5%

[n=1,139 likely voters; 10/19-25; online/email invite; Eng/Span; MOE +/- 4%]

Probolsky Research

Governor

  • Newsom (D) 47%
  • Cox (R) 37%
  • unsure 16%

United States Senate

  • Feinstein (D) 41%
  • de León 35%
  • undecided 24%

[n=10/25-30; live landline/cell telephone & online; English/Spanish; MOE]

 

KFI/NBC 4 (Thomas Partner Strategies - GOP)

Governor

  • Newsom (D) 53.9%
  • Cox (R) 41.4%
  • undecided 4.7%%

Lieutenant Governor

  • Kounalakis (D): 34.05%
  • Hernandez (D): 29.12%
  • unsure: 36.8%

Superintendent of Public Instruction (non-partisan)

  • Thurmond: 34.8%
  • Tuck: 37.2%
  • unsure: 28%%

Proposition 6 (gas tax)

  • yes: 35.9%
  • no: 42.3%
  • unsure: 20.8% 

[n=1,068 likely voters; 10/18-20; live landline; English; MOE +/- 3.5% (3% on Prop. 6)]

 

Gravis (GOP)

Governor

  • Newsom (D) 55%
  • Cox (R) 35%
  • undecided 9%
Attorney General
  • Becerra (D) 52%
  • Bailey (R) 34%
  • uncertain 14%

NYT/SIENA: Meanwhile, there are two California NYT/Siena College "live" polls in the field both of which are incomplete. As usual, the conductors of the poll seek a sample of 500 before closing it with a satisfactory margin of error. Both polls will be back in the field tonight.

INCOMPLETE: CA45 (Irvine): [n=421; MOE +/- 5%]

  • Katie Porter (D): 48%
  • *Mimi Walters (R): 45%
  • undecided: 6%

President Trump job approval:

  • approve: 43%
  • disapprove: 52%
  • undecided: 5%

INCOMPLETE: CA48 (Huntington Beach): [n=159; interviews continue tonight]

As always, numbers may not add up do to rounding. If you see anything that looks strange, let me know. I'm working fast with lots of numbers.

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

BAIL: For WaPo, Peter Whoriskey looks at the Oregon-based private equity firm that has spent $800,000 to gather signatures for the effort to repeal by referendum SB 10, the law that changes "money bail" in favor of risk-based pre-trial release. That amount makes it the largest contributor, demonstrating that the moneyed repeal effort is not the mom-and-pop small businesses that showed up in commercials and at legislative hearings, but rather the big insurance and other financial efforts that bankroll the industry.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblymember Marc Berman, Sarah Palacios, and Gabriel Sanchez

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at tinyurl.com/ydez2t5a. Email cover letter and resume to info@apalf.org.
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit apptrkr.com/1319417 and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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Maine is pioneering ranked-choice voting in its federal general election this fall, where the race for its 2nd Congressional District is razor-thin and just may be decided by the new voting style.

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