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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!
Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.
With 625 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:
With yesterday's new participants and changed answers, AD72 returns to the list of "close" ones--remember, this is pick to win, not projection of the actual vote.
I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/23/2018 has Democrats+7.6. (change from yesterday: no change)
For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:
Note: Significant shift in increases of ballots mailed and returned, but the same share of turnout.
EAR TICKLER: The CapPubRadio team look at the Orange County congressional races on its Keys to the House podcast.
Before we start, let's laugh with Capitol Weekly's Big Daddy. Today, he's "asked" by a new policy wonk staffer who finds a dispatch to take his/her duffel to Bakersfield to campaign for a legislative candidate. What to make of it? As always, Big Daddy has the answer.
Well, we're one week out. I try to avoid national politics in this space unless it directly implicates California, but my King Hall degree would be taken away if I didn't flat out say, no matter what he says in an interview, the President cannot repeal the Fourteenth Amendment by executive order.
Want to get rid of birthright citizenship? I respect political perspectives from all angles, as much as I may personally disagree. Convince two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-fourths of state legislatures. If women had to do it to get the Nineteenth Amendment to gain rights, a President must do it to take rights away.
Meanwhile, back to Cali.
I sent an update to Nooner Premium subscribers yesterday afternoon that covered the latest metrics of the nine most competitive congressional races. Here's one of them (click for larger), with all data as of 2pm yesterday.
You can get the memo and other subscriber updates over the next month for $5.
OK OK WHAT'S NEXT? There's been speculation about what former San Diego councilman and talk show host Carl De Maio will do after the Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal and road construction) campaign is over, win or lose. Well, in a West Steps Capitol presser yesterday, he announced it.
Patrick McGreevy reports for the Los Angeles Times "Proposition 6 campaign leader Carl DeMaio on Monday threatened a recall campaign against state Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra for providing what he said was a misleading ballot title for the measure that would repeal increases in the gas tax and vehicle fees."
The rationale for the recall is that an argument that Becerra's office received polling information about the most effective "no" polling data was not considered when the Third District Circuit Court of Appeal reversed a Sac Superior judge's rewriting of the work of the AG's office. Of course, the title and summary legal issue was decided in 2017 at the appellate level, and the California Supreme Court that the 3rd DCA decision stand.
I've talked to a couple strong supporters of Prop. 6 and they are not happy.
They were played by congressional Republicans who wanted to make this a major campaign issue to prevent loss of seats, but it's clearly not working in CA49--a region (OC/SD) where the gas tax repeal is very popular. That's the only area where it's really being used in candidate campaigns, and it won't save Issa's seat. Thus, the GOP congressional money is going to campaigns around Nancy Pelosi, government-run health care, and threats that the GOP tax bill will be reversed by a Dem majority (it won't, as the Senate ain't going anywhere).
Some major Prop. 6 players also are sick of this being about title and summary. They acknowledge that they supported the administrative discretion of the office of AG under Republican Dan Lungren, who was attorney general from 1991-1999. Remember "Illegal Aliens" as the first two words of the Prop. 187 title in 1994? Or "Prohibition Against Discrimination or Preferential Treatment by State and Other Public Entities." for Prop. 209 in 1996?
Anyway, the this year's issue is done and I write this to be neither about Carl De Maio nor Proposition 6.
This is about the campaign-industrial complex.
While Yes on Proposition 6 fundraising has been anemic compared to the opposition, supporters have created a large, national network of small-dollar donors. Campaign consultants have made money and people like De Maio have found a statewide platform.
Let's face it, after the cray-cray political year that we've had, 2019 will be flat-out boring. I plan to write about the political dynamics of major issues confronting the Legislature and how the body deals with a new governor. I'm looking forward to it and hope you find it worth my time writing. That said, it's anything but campaign consultant lucrative.
After a needed (and likely very nice, expensive after this cycle) vacation, the campaign-industrial complex needs work. Can you spare a brother an issue?
So, someone came up with the idea of recalling Attorney General Xavier Becerra, an appointed AG who hasn't even been elected yet but will win handily next Tuesday. Sure, there is lots of things for conservatives to dislike about Becerra. He is spending a lot of state funds on legal challenges to Trump Administration administrative regulations. State attorneys general of both parties do this in all administrations. It is true that the Trump Administration, like it or not, challenges the bounds of administrative law and executive authority, in many times to be consistent with campaign promises.
However, recall of Becerra for a court-validated title and summary? There's nothing illegal to look a polling in doing so. Both sides have the opportunity to communicate to the AG during the title and summary writing period and of course have the legal process to challenge the product.
Cal. Const. Art II, Section 14(a): "Recall of a state officer is initiated by delivering to the Secretary of State a petition alleging reason for recall. Sufficiency of reason is not reviewable. Proponents have 160 days to file signed petitions."
Someone can be subject of recall for "being a doofus." Xavier Becerra is no doofus. Josh Newman (2018) is no doofus. Gray Davis (1993) is no doofus. The late Doris Allen (1995) was no doofus. Paul Horcher (1995) is no doofus. Before that, we have to go back 80 years to find a successful
I can name some doofuses who have served, but will hold back since some are living.
De Maio and advisors likely are seeing the breadth of their small dollar support and thinking how it can be turned in to the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association (HJTA) of the 21st Century. The organization, born from the 1978 campaign for Proposition 13, captured a large direct mail audience of small-dollar donors in an era preceding the internet. They were frequently older homeowners who saw the biggest benefit from the cap an inflationary protections on property taxes.
Let's face it, the youngest voter who cast a ballot for Prop. 13 is or would be 58 years old now, and those 18-year-olds then were unlikely to vote, unlikely to be homeowners, and unlikely to be a Prop. 13 supporter. Okay, to put it with delicate crass, most of the HJTA crowd is no longer a voter or contributor.
HJTA tried to gain relevance in the Prop.6 election with its own committee. It has raised $286,332.41 this year, although $270,000 was from other committees controlled by the organization, including "PROTECT PROP. 13, A PROJECT OF THE HOWARD JARVIS TAXPAYERS ASSOCIATION." Prop. 6 sure goes a long way in protecting property taxes.
The HJTA Prop. 6 committee has bought lots of slate cards and paid "Capitol Matrix Consulting" $5,000 for "campaign consulting." The firm is that of former Director of Finance Mike Genest and former LAO chief economist Brad Williams, two guys for whom I have great respect. Genest is credited for "facts" on the non-De Maio Yes on 6 web site. Of course, there are official facts that aren't paid for, composed by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office. Don't get me wrong, both sides play this to have respected names to quote in ads and on web sites.
Can De Maio and fellow Prop. 6 supporters can be the new Howard Jarvis-style organization, replacing one that has lost progressing relevance each decade? That seemed to be the goal of yesterday's presser, attended by, well, a few press folks but few others. It is true that the historic office of the attorney general is in the Capitol, but he's actually on I Street. Black Lives Matter Sacramento knows where the office is.
Anyway, the play seems to be through a recall effort, although they will get zero support from big GOP donors, as they aren't with the Prop. 6 campaign. Those will see it as a self-serving move by the campaign-industrial complex, one that has no chance of succeeding.
That is, unless they find a way to revive Enron and create rolling blackouts.
Nevertheless, it will be lucrative for the complex and keep De Maio's relevance beyond the reach his daily 3-6pm talk show.
MAXINE: For Politico, Zachary Warmbrodt writes that, despite President Trump's use of her as a political punching bag, Congresswoman Maxine Waters is respected by Capitol Hill Republicans, particularly as it appears more likely than not that the House will flip and she will get the gavel if the Financial Services Committee.
“There are many, many things that Maxine and I are completely, diametrically the opposite on,” said Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.), who is in the running to be the committee’s Republican leader. “But I have dealt with her enough on issues to understand she can see the whole picture. It is possible to negotiate with her and she’ll keep her word. That’s an important thing in Congress. Not everybody does that anymore.”
Republicans obviously don't like her positions on the tax cut and banking regulation, "[b]ut her track record on other key issues — as well as pressure she will face from more business-friendly Democrats in what could be a narrowly divided House — has left some lobbyists and Republicans cautiously optimistic about the prospects for getting things done even if the liberal firebrand uses the chair as a platform to attack Trump."
Meanwhile, as President Trump continues asserting that Waters is a "low IQ" individual, her Republican opponent Omar Navarro is making bank. He's raised over $1 million this cycle for a district that is D+43.47, Hillary won by 61.7 points in 2016 and Jerry Brown won by 45.2 in 2014. Like the Democratic challengers in the super-competitive races, Omar has tapped into a nationwide fundraising base.
Non-incumbent candidates may receive a salary under certain circumstances, according to FEC rules. That said, I spend a lot of time reading campaign finance reports and this is very rare.
Navarro "has" over 166,000 Twitter followers. Setting aside that a significant number of these have never posted and others are in faraway countries with no political postings whatsoever, thus appearing purchased, 166k is nothing to brush off your shoulder over.
Thus, since there are really no campaign events in CA43 and he spends most of his time retweeting, perhaps a salary is appropriate. I really should have run for Congress instead of waking up before dawn and reading campaign finance reports as the late shows begin. The Navarro model is far more lucrative than what I do. No offense, Doris, you've got my vote this year, but look out in 2020!
The greatest part of all of this? His campaign against Maxine Waters is that she is "self-serving."
More after the jump...
FINAL PUSH: For Politico, Carla Marinucci reports that Senator Kamala Harris and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom will spend the Saturday campaigning together in Southern California. The rallies will be in CA25 (Sta Clarita-Palmdale), CD39 (Fullerton-Diamond Bar), CD45 (Irvine), CD48 (Huntington Beach). Comedian Chelsea Handler will join for the CA45 rally. Handler is slated to be at tonight's fundraiser for CA48 candidate Harley Rouda with cast and crew members of The West Wing, who I listed on Sunday.
For those stumped on my irrelevant trivia, Tim Matheson played VP John Hoynes. Tommy Schlamme is Aaron Sorkin's regular directing and producing buddy. Schlamme actually did the last couple of seasons of Sports Night and the first couple of The West Wing concurrently, and they were shot at different studios leading to frantic drives between the two. Setting aside CA48 politics, this TWW fan boy sure wishes he could be in Silverlake tonight!
Anyway, if you have not been paying attention, the Harris/Newsom schedule shows the SoCal battlegrounds which could be decisive in control of the House. It's also a critical showing by Harris, who some California Democrats have been criticizing over the last couple of weeks as she rallies voters in selected, shall we say 2020, states.
I know GOP candidates everywhere in The Golden State are crushed, but POTUS's aggressive final campaign schedule will not include California. Well that's GOP candidates perhaps except Omar.
THE CAMPAIGN BREAD BAKERY: Everyone is getting rich except for the reporters who are writing about it. Laurel Rosenhall gives the write-up for CALmatters of the big industry spending on this year's ballot. "It wouldn’t be election season without a bunch of big-money interests trying to tell you how to vote. This year, with hundreds of millions of dollars rolling into initiative campaigns over housing and health care, California has hit a new record."
SPEAKING OF DOUGH: @DavidWrightCNN - "Here's a look at the top 10 House races by spending in *just* the last week of the campaign:
1. TX-32 - $4.2 million
Several thousand of that CA10 money has been wasted on my teevee, although I don't live in the district and my ballot was received by Sac County 15 days ago.
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblymember Monique Limón and Mary Valdemar!
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Bombing Suspect Targeted More People In Los Angeles, Sources Say
Richard Winton @ latimes.com
The FBI and other law enforcement agencies have begun reaching out to potential Southern California targets of Cesar Altieri Sayoc Jr., 56, who is accused of mailing 14 explosive devices to formerPresident Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, senators, actor Robert De Niro and CNN.
Harris And Newsom To Barnstorm Southern California In Final House Push - Politico
Newsom and Harris will campaign together in Santa Clarita on Saturday morning to support both Assembly candidate Christy Smith and Democratic House candidate Katie Hill, a nonprofit executive whose tight race in the 25th Congressional District against incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Knight is viewed as a prime Democratic opportunity to flip a House seat.
Midterm Election Spending Nears A Record $5 Billion, And Democrats Outpace Republicans, Report Finds
Michael Finnegan @ latimes.com
Spending on the Nov. 6th congressional election is approaching $5 billion, breaking the record for a midterm, a report by the Center for Responsive Politics found.
Texans say glitchy voting machines are changing their ballots. The state blames user error.
As Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz fight for a Senate seat, Texas voters say machines are erroneously changing their ballots.
White House Scrambles To Portray Trump As Empathetic Amid Backlash To President's Response To Violence
Eli Stokols, Noah Bierman @ latimes.com
Even as aides worked to portray Trump as a unifying figure, however, the president continued to lash out at critics, including the news media he labeled as “the true Enemy of the People.” In a tweet Monday morning, he stirred fear of an immigrant “invasion,” choosing the same word used by the suspect in the Pittsburgh shooting spree that killed 11 Jewish worshipers Saturday.