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REMINDER: My email address is still in DNS hell. (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.



Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 540 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

IC Steve Poizner (N) 55.80%
IC Ricardo Lara (D) 44.01%


SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 57.95%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 42.05%


SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 56.58%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 43.42%


AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 53.73%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 46.27%


I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.


You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed. 



We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space



DISTRICT CHANGES: CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): changed from Leans Democrat to Toss-up (discussion below)



  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 42 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 3 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 38; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 3 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups in Knight (CA25) Open/Royce (CA39) and Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
      - While I have SD14 as Leans Rep, it's appearing very close
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat, Republicans hold 21, plus:
      likely Dem pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - lean Dem in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - lean Rep in Acosta (AD38) , and Harper AD74
      - toss-ups in Baker (AD16) and Open/Allen (AD72)



Upward Mobility at Cal State LA


GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/23/2018 has Democrats+7.6. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error. 


  • US Senate control: 18.0% D, 82.0% R (Change from yesterday: R-0.3)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.5%, de León 40.5% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 86.5% D, 13.5% R (Change from yesterday: D+1.6)
  • House seats: 235 D, 200 R (Change from yesterday: D+1)
  • Popular vote margin: D+9.0% (Change from yesterday: D+0.3)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 Toss-up-CA39 (Change from yesterday: no change)  


  • mailed: 12,605,067 total: 5,493,166: Dem (44%), 3,150,945 Rep (25%), 3,960,956 NPP/other (31%)
  • returned: 1,763,918 total: Dem 756,217 (43%), Rep 600,833 (34%), NPP/other 406,868 (23%) 

Full data:  statewide and local government | federal and state legislative districts


Conditional Voter Registration and Voting Continues


SPORTS PAGE: How 'bout dem Rams?

Happy Monday to you. Nice chilly fall morning. The geese are flying above noisily honking before the sun rises this morning, a beautiful sound as winter approaches.

Vote-by-mail returns are currently much whiter (+12) and much older (+23) in the share among those mailed. That's a huge bias leaning GOP.

However, it is also a bit distorted on a statewide basis because of the Voter's Choice Act. In Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, San Mateo counties, all voters received ballots to vote by mail. Those five counties totaled 588,805 mail-in ballots in 2014. This year, over 1.3 million mail-in ballots were sent to those voters, representing 6.8% of registered voters. Based on our historic knowledge of vote-by-mail voters, that means that the shares of ballots mailed out are disproportionately over-represented among non-white and younger voters, particularly for a midterm election.

It's going to take several cycles to create new models of mail-in returns in Voters Choice Act counties. Of those participating this year, only Madera has competitive races--11.3% of SD12, which is competitive and likely flipping to the Dems, and portions of CA04 (3.6%) and CA16 (14.5%) that are interesting but in no top tier list of races. At the end of the day, Voter's Choice Act is very unlikely to affect the outcome of any state or federal election, but could affect local elections. Meanwhile, it will distort non-white and younger voter participation from conventional wisdom models.

Overall, I don't think Voters Choice Act will appreciably increase turnout this year, but may in the long run. I like it for several reasons that has nothing to do with turnout or outcomes. In some states, you have to swear that you will be out of town or disabled to vote-by-mail. Particularly with top-two and lengthy primary ballots and now with all ballot measures on November ballots, in my mind, the kitchen table is far preferable than the polling place and should result in more deliberative voting.  

Under the law, all counties will have the option to join the current club of five in 2020 and several are planning to do so. For now, just keep the current situation in mind while evaluating data.

Meanwhile, I know about the Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) now-deleted tweet targeting three rich folks with Jewish heritage in their families bankrolling Democratic campaign efforts and his omission of a similar, uh, high-roller's support on the GOP side. It is what it is, you know as much as I do on the motivation and awful timing, but that's all that can be said in this space.

POLL POSITION: NYT/Siena College has wrapped up its California polls.

COMPLETE: CA25 (Simi Valley-Palmdale): [n=429; MOE +/- 5

  • Katie Hill (D): 44%
  • *Steve Knight (R): 48%
  • Undecided: 8%

Donald Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 47%
  • Disapprove: 47%
  • Don't know: 6%

As you saw above, I have moved the CA25 to toss-up. The average of the two most recent independent polls (NYT/Siena and LAT/Berkeley IGS) is now 47%-47%. With an average of 6% undecided, this is really a turnout game at this point. As I wrote yesterday, President Trump's approval rating is much higher in NYT/Siena, but that's unclear whether its a methodological difference (phone v. online and option of a "somewhat" option in Berkeley IGS) or reflective of the overall decline in POTUS disapproval in the RCP polling average over the last month is unclear. 

The President has had a relatively good month or, some might say, a less bad month. The national polling in the RCP average was mostly done before the awful news of last week. NYT/Siena was "in the field" conducting interviews for CA25 from October 25 to October 28. The "mystery" and arrest of the multiple pipe bombs allegedly sent by a Florida man came to a seeming end on Friday, October 26, the second night of polling interviews. Saturday, the second day of interviews, was when the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting occurred.

No pollster wants to be in the field on news days like that. Ignore the paid "contributors" on both sides on the cable news networks. Their respective spin on the impact on voters attitudes as ballots are being cast is as predictable as the state budget passage by June 15 (now that it's simple majority and lawmakers forfeit their pay if not done so by then).

No political consultant can say whether the last seven days drives turnout one way or another. The vast majority of voters have made up their minds and, in CA25, ballots for 19.4% of those who had been mailed ballots had been received by county elections officials by Friday. In share of ballots returned versus mailed, Dem is up +1%, Rep is up +8%, and NPP/other is down -9%. 

Obviously, the weekend news didn't affect their votes, but could have to those had/have not yet voted.

Most optimistic takeaway for the GOP? Knight leads in each of the seven turnout models in weighting of the NYT/Siena results, ranging from types of people who voted in the 2016 presidential (Knight+2) to types of people who voted in the 2014 midterm (Knight+9). In my models, I look at turnout to be in the middle of the two, adjusted for change in registration between the average of the two and 2018. That doesn't mean that, based on one poll, you get a precise number.

The good news for Hill is that 63% of likely registered voters (we don't have final from the 10/22 close) have ballots in their hands, and 80% of those are the focus of turnout efforts, and they are disproportionately Dem and independent/minor party voters.

CA25 was getting away from the GOP a month ago but seems to be settling clearly in the toss-up club along with CA39 (Fullerton/Diamond Bar) and CA48 (Huntington Beach).

Dems have a significant turnout mountain to climb to flip this seat. FiveThirtyEight still has the race as Leans Dem based mostly on fundraising and generic congressional ballot (national), but no handicappers now have it in a column other than toss-up.

EYE ON EARLY TURNOUT: Paul Mitchell tweets on vote-by-mail returns:

"It’s Monday morning, 8 days out, and here’s a snapshot of the swingy state senate districts. In #SD12 and #SD14 we see Dems leading in turnout, but, only in #SD12 did Dem votes exceed Rep in the primary.

"Equivalent turnout in the General would suggest Reps hold #SD14 & #SD34"

GOV: For the AP, Jonathan J. Cooper writes that the multiple hospitality businesses that Gavin Newsom has ownership interests in could provide an ethical challenge should he become governor. Cooper writes:

"The potential for blurred lines between business and government service has become especially resonant since President Donald Trump broke with tradition for U.S. presidents and chose not to divest from his extensive holdings. Newsom has been a harsh critic of the president’s policies but has said little about this issue.

"Newsom’s hospitality businesses are heavily regulated by the state and could provide opportunities for interest groups to try to curry favor by renting facilities at Newsom’s properties for events."

Republicans aren't really using the issue to campaign against Newsom for two reasons--the bar on conflicts has somewhat changed by activities in Washington, D.C. and, well, challengers of Newsom don't want to paint him as a businessman. It doesn't work with the socialism label.

So, the only related issue being used is that Newsom got his business start with the support of his business partner's father, Gordon Getty. Getty is an heir of the J. Paul Getty oil fortune. However, even that attack appears hypocritical to many who point to the changing story of President's escalating amount of money given to him by his father to start the President's real estate empire. 


More after the jump...


Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation: full-time program manager (Los Angeles)
  • Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 


HEELS AGAINST PROP 6: Following up on the Twitter exchange about whether it's possible to wear heels on a bike, there was a drag bike ride yesterday in SF. This followed CA49 candidate Diane Harkey's suggestion at a rally that the gas tax hike is trying to force people to ride bikes, something impossible for women who wears heels and have nice hair.

Of course, State Senator Scott Wiener (D-SF) donned his wig and heels for the ride.

KQED's Muna Danish writes up the ride. She writes "[Harkey] can drive if she wants to," said State Sen. Scott Wiener, who helped organize the event, "but other people do ride bikes with hair and with heels, and people should be able to choose how they get around."

DO GOOD, DAMMIT! I've plugged fundraising events for the John Burton Advocates for Youth nonprofit. For newcomers, former Senate President Pro Tem, assemblymember, and congressman, John Burton has a retirement focus on helping foster youth. It's not a newfound passion as he carried it during his time in elected office. The foundation works, frequently in collaboration with public agencies, on education, health, and housing issues particularly affecting foster and homeless youth. 

It's a passion of mine because of my twenty years of advocacy for community colleges, where most foster youth start. After they leave the foster system, they frequently are on their own, on the borderline of homelessness. Don't get me wrong, there are some amazing foster families out there, many of whom have adopted foster youth. But, unfortunately, that is too often the exception rather than the rule.

As you likely know, homelessness of college students has significantly increased in recent years and is getting far more attention. Of course, it is not a new problem but a hidden one, as students in between having a roof over their heads frequently try to hide it from their peers, professors, and academic counselors. Colleges now are frequently allowing the use of gym showers and opening food pantries to serve these students.

So, to go all John Burton on you, drop what you're f'ing doing and put this g*ddamn event on your calendar:

Support the John Burton Advocates for Youth nonprofit organization with music from Remedy 7!

Thursday, November 1
6pm - 9pm
Old Ironsides
1901 10th Street
Sacramento, CA

$25 suggested donation at the door.
tax-deductible 501(c)(3) | Tax ID # 81-2600695

Going to the first showing of Bohemian Rhapsody? You can give directly online.

Remedy 7 is a great Sacramento band that has Capitol alums an Noonerites who put on a great show that will get you to shake your hips--for kids.

For skeptics, tax filings report that Burton receives no compensation for his role as chair of the bipartisan/nonpartisan board of directors, nor do the other directors. 


Probolsky Research


#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Victor Costa, Rob Flanigan, and Coby King!



Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing for $40/week.

  • Asian Pacific American Leadership Foundation seeks a full-time program manager in Los Angeles. The program manager will reach out to, educate, and involve key constituencies, including state and local elected officials, leaders of community groups, and their respective constituencies. A full job description can be found at Email cover letter and resume to
  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, 
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at:

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to

    Link to full job description:

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here:
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here:  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at or contact us at
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu:
Us Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Barbara Lee Talk Voting At Berkeley Rally
All the speakers echoed the idea of making a change through voting. Topics addressed during the rally included corporate greed, income inequality, single-payer health care, free education and voter turnout.

In some states, ballot measures offer a Trump-free rallying cry

“There’s quite a bit of evidence ... that turnout is higher when you have these salient initiatives on the ballot. And it has to do with how salient they are,” said Caroline Tolbert, a University of Iowa political science professor.

As The White Nationalist Movement Faltered In The U.S. Over The Last Year, Gab Remained One Of Its Safe Harbors
Matt Pearce @
But white nationalism isn’t just any social movement. Meetings get canceled when venue owners realize who’s renting their space. Rallies come under violent attack by organized anti-fascists. And big Silicon Valley tech companies are coming under increasing pressure to kick far-right personalities off their services.

Trump Accuses Media Of Stoking 'great Anger' In The United States - Politico

President Donald Trump has issued sharp rebukes over the last several days in response to accusations that his incendiary rhetoric was to blame for a a spate of violence seen by many as rooted in political motives. | Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images