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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!

Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.

With 532 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:

IC Steve Poizner (N) 55.47%
IC Ricardo Lara (D) 44.33%

 

SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 57.75%
SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 42.25%

 

SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 56.78%
SD22 Michael Eng (D) 43.22%

 

AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 53.46%
AD38 Christy Smith (D) 46.54%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed. 

 

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E-11

DISTRICT CHANGES: 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 hell, I don't knows
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25) Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups in Open/Royce (CA39) and Rohrabacher (CA48)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
      - While I have SD14 as Leans Rep, it's appearing very close
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat, Republicans hold 21, plus:
      likely Dem pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - lean Dem in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - lean Rep in Acosta (AD38) , and Harper AD74
      - toss-ups in Baker (AD16) and Open/Allen (AD72)

 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/23/2018 has Democrats+7.6. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 17.7% D, 82.3% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.6)
  • Senate seats: 48 D, 52 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.5%, de León 40.5% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein-0.3)
  • House control: 84.8% D, 15.2% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.3)
  • House seats: 234 D, 201 R (Change from yesterday: D+1)
  • Popular vote margin: D+8.8% (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 Toss-up-CA39 (Change from yesterday: no change)  

ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:

  • mailed: 12,501,648 total: 5,445,214: Dem (44%), 3,126,925 Rep (25%), 3,929,459 NPP/other (31%)
  • returned: 1,763,918 total: 756,217 (43%), 600,833 (34%), 406,868 (23%) 

Full data:  statewide and local government | federal and state legislative districts

 

Conditional Voter Registration and Voting Continues

 

SPORTS PAGE: Well, that was a game. While Dodgers fans think the series is tied 2-2 after the boys in Blue prevailed after playing 18 innings of ball, it is still 2-1. Game 4 is at 5:09 at Dodgers Stadium. As I'm writing, neither the Dodgers nor Red Sox have announced their starting pitchers.

Tomorrow is now the "Los Angeles Sports Equinox." For the first time in any city, all five major sports leagues have games--National Hockey League (Kings @ 12:30), National Football League (Rams @ 1:25), Major League Soccer (Galaxy @ 1:30), Major League Baseball (Dodgers @ 5:09), and National Basketball Association (Clippers @ 7pm). How is that to make your head explode? For many, it sounds like a good day to camp out at Costco for an all-you-can-eat samples buffet. 

What a week. I thought this morning would be quiet, but you've seen the news by the time you read this. To think that a California congressional candidate last week blamed armed guards at Apple stores on lax policing and criminal sentencing policies... This afternoon across the country, church leaders of all faiths are talking about the same level of security as people gather to worship tomorrow.

I start today with my tail between my legs, and it has nothing to do with baseball. I took Carl De Maio to the woodshed for a fundraising appeal for the Yes on 6 campaign, with part of the appeal suggesting a legal challenge to the Attorney General-crafted title and summary. As I wrote yesterday, that issue was decided during the petititon process. A superior court judge in Sacramento rewrote parts of the AG's work, the Third District Court of Appeal found that the AG's original work was within discretion and upheld the original AG title and summary, and the Supreme Court of California did not take up further appeal. That issue is done.

I should have stopped there. However, I tied fundraising email with reports showing that the campaign was in the red. However, there are four Yes on 6 committees. I knew it wasn't that of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association committee or another small one, but got tripped up and used numbers from the committee controlled by political consultant Dave Gilliard, which has received much of the money from Congressional and legislative Republicans. That's the one in deep debt, although much of that is to Gilliard's firm himself.

De Maio's fundraising appeal was for his committee, Reform California, which is his ballot measure committee that has evolved from work on San Diego issues to now Yes on 6.  That committee, unlike the Gilliard committee, is in the black. It closed the 10/20 reporting period with $714,649.36 on hand and $244,703.76 in unpaid bills. That's net cash on hand of $469,945.60. 

I offer my sincere apologies to Carl. I would have sent out an immediate correction when I found out about it at 7:12pm, but the Dodgers game was in the 7th and was going to be over soon. Well, at 12:15am or whenever it was when Munch hit the walk-off, I thought the correction could wait until this space.

Of course, the better cash on hand picture is dwarfed by the money poured in by labor and private contractors likely to benefit from the gas tax and vehicle fee increase. That's who has bought the doom and gloom time on your teevee. 

There's another issue that I heard from a smart Nooner reader yesterday who is involved with the Yes on 6 effort. This divide between the efforts of Gilliard and De Maio has caused strategic problems. De Maio's effort has been more statewide, while Gilliard's has been more around Republican candidates, many of whom he has worked for on the campaign side. Thus, the events and earned media are in base areas and not the "bang for the buck" areas of free coverage--needed in an effort with a huge cash disadvantage. 

Orange and San Diego are important regions in the state, but you can't win a statewide ballot measure there when it is trailing an average of 11 points in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. Of course Orange and San Diego is where the competitive congressional races are. Up here, Republican Congressman Jeff Denham is not campaigning for the gas tax repeal in the Tracy-Modesto district. Trust me, as I write all day long, I could recite almost every Denham and Josh Harder ad at this point.

I've written before that I thought the proponents of 6 over-reached with the requirement that future gas tax and vehicle increases be approved by voters, even for inflation on the fixed-rate taxes and fees. That ginned up the opposition looking at the future of road construction funding in California and not just the SB 1 increase. But, this strategic conflict appears to be having an even greater impact on the Yes campaign.

Much of the activity is for the play for GOP congressional seats with red meat. Big money is not arriving in the general statewide effort steered by De Maio. It is unclear whether that is because donors are focused elsewhere on GOP races or something personal about not giving De Maio a platform for future office. It is likely a combination of both.

I think De Maio is a good moderate voice within the Republican Party, similar to moderate Democrats that Democratic activists marginalize. Face it, we know of Republican electeds who don't want De Maio to be anywhere near them because he, OMG as the kiddoes say, held his partner's hand in parade and a picture was used in a campaign ad.

If you want GOP electeds from San Diego, you have to understand San Diego values. It is the most fiscally conservative, socially libertarian metro area in the state. There's a reason why former Republican Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher is now a Democrat with a good shot against Republican former DA Bonnie Dumanis on the San Diego County Board of Supervisors next week. 

Of course, it happens on the left too. Labor is giving a cold shoulder Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) in a possible pick-up against embattled congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr. (R) because Ammar doesn't flat out say he opposes Prop. 6. In CA50, the measure is Yes+7. The same poll finds Hunter with only a two-point lead. You can't expect a challenger within the margin of error to erase that margin and gain the lead by campaigning against a popular initiative in that district. Instead, labor moved its focus to CA04, where Jessica Morse is running a great campaign, but is still a longer shot than Campa-Najjar. 

If the GOP wants electeds from San Diego proper beyond nonpartisan local offices, they have to invite people like De Maio to the party. If Democrats want suburban inland areas east and north, they need to also be tolerant.

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
    Job: California Medical Association: Director of Communications & Public Affairs (Sacramento)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: The Council of State Governments: Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator (Sacramento)
  • Job: Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Job: University of California Office of the President: Administrative Services Manager (Sacramento)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

EYE SPI: EdVoice added another $1,000,000 to its independent expenditure committee supporting the campaign of Marshall Tuck for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

CA25 (Simi Valley-Palmdale): The NYT/Siena College live poll has triggered a move from Leans Democrat->Likely Democrat on FiveThirtyEight this morning after the first two nights of polling.

This round of the NYT/Siena College polling continues:

INCOMPLETE: CA25 (Simi Valley-Palmdale): [n=500; MOE +/- 7; calls continue today] 

  • Katie Hill (D): 48%
  • *Steve Knight (R): 47%
  • Undecided: 5%

Donald Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 45%
  • Disapprove: 48%
  • Don't know: 7%

PROP. 8 (kidney dialysis clinics): For the Associated Press, Sophia Bollag reports that the $111 million spent against Proposition 8 is now the largest amount of spending on a ballot measure in the United States since at least 2002, and likely ever even after adjusting for inflation. Prop. 8 spending now exceeds Prop. 61 on prescription drug pricing in 2016. The common thread between Proposition 61 in 2016 and the 2018 ballot? Both Prop. 61 and this year's Prop. 10 (rent control) were the brain childs of Michael Weinstein, CEO of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, a wealthy entrepreneurial "nonprofit" that bankrolled both measures.

On Prop. 8, Bollag writes "Dialysis companies make roughly $3 billion in annual profits from their California operations, according to nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office."

The initiative is going down, but the amount of spending does show how lucrative it is and why we have a major health care cost problem in this country. I'll write more on the single-payer debate in the Legislature and the orchestrated maneuvers. I don't want to be accused of either side on candidate races where the issue is a big fight over ends/means, so, I'll hold it until after the election.

Propositions 8, 10, 11, and 12 should all be legislative issues, but special interests on both sides didn't want compromise in the Legislature and decided to fight it out at the ballot box. That's an utter shame and the responsibility lies at the hands of legislators and special interests on both sides. The only winners are the campaign industry, which ranges from consultants to attorneys to television and radio stations. They're the only ones making money off these complex policy fights that should be subject to legislative deliberations rather than a ballot title/summary and a barrage of ads. 

I've only told you that I voted yes on Proposition 4, because of my personal history in and with children's hospitals. I'll only tell you that I did not vote in line with any slate on more than one measure. I take that back. I'll tell you I voted to let the Legislature say "pretty please" to Congress over Daylight Savings Time because, well, this honey badger don't care.

 

More after the jump! 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to former Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Steve Castellanos, Assemblymember Kansen Chu, and Laura Fitzgerald!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

  • Small, downtown Los Angeles boutique law firm is looking for an associate attorney with a demonstrated interest and/or experience in political, election, and nonprofit organization law, as well as a broader interest and/or experience in business law and civil litigation. [full job description]
    Email resumes to Ana Simeonova, Office Manager, ana@politicallaw.com 
  • The University of California Office of the President is looking for an Administrative Services Manager for its Sacramento Office. The position manages the office’s human resource administration, budget development and tracking, account, fiscal and inventory controls, space planning and technical support services, among other administrative duties. Bachelor's degree in related area or equivalent experience is required, plus five years of experience performing a range of administrative functions. Salary commensurate with experience. To apply, visit apptrkr.com/1319417 and search for requisition 20180461. 
  • Director of Communications & Public Affairs – California Medical Association (Sacramento)
    Reporting directly to the VP of Strategic Communications, this position will develop/execute earned media and public affairs strategies in support of physician-focused health care advocacy. Seeking an assertive and tactful self-starter with the ability to effectively generate and shape media coverage. Must be driven with the ability to adapt to evolving priorities and deadlines. On-the-record experience required; health care or political experience strongly desired. Great culture and amazing benefits with 401k match. $85-100k DOE. View the full description and apply at: www.cmadocs.org/careers.

  • The Council of State Governments is seeking a Policy Committees and Programs Coordinator in Sacramento, CA.
    Position contributes to the organization's policy objectives and engagement with regional policy-makers and other stakeholders. This includes coordinating and providing policy committee and program support.

    • Provides administrative, logistical and communications support to policy committees and programs staff.
    • Conducts entry-level policy research, follow-up activities, and provides information to members.
    • Maintains communication, conducts outreach and establishes rapport with committee staff, legislators, representatives of the private sector, and with federal, state and local government officials.

    View full posting at csg.applicantpro.com CSG is an Equal Opportunity Employer (Minorities/Females/Veterans/Disabled)

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. 
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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