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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!
Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.
With 523 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:
I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/23/2018 has Democrats+7.6. (change from yesterday: D+0.3)
For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:
SPORTS PAGE: Chavez Ravine is the hot spot for Game 3, as the Dodgers try to find a bat at their home park. First pitch is at 5:09 PDT (FOX), with Walker Buehler on the mound for the boys in Dodger Blue and Rick Porcello on the mound for the boys in red. Yes, another evening of hearing Bueller, Bueller, Bueller... joke throughout the game by the broadcasters. Guys, it was cute the first time, but that was it.
EAR TICKLER: The KQED Team of Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos sit down with Senator Dianne Feinstein for the Political Breakdown podcast. Just a few wees ago, Shafer, Lagos, and Guy Marzorati were in The OC covering congressional candidates. Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R-Laguna Niguel) couldn't find time for them. CapPubRadio's Ben Adler and Sandy Schilling also spent time in OC last week to cover the hot campaigns.
¡Feliz viernes! It's 8am and over the last three hours, my teevee has gone from two more likely bombs to an arrest of a suspect. Great work of law enforcement at the local, state, and federal levels, private security and mail room employees, and those of the United States Postal Service.
Last night, the Sutter's Fort State Historic Park was lit up by Swiss artist Gerry Hofstetter for one hour as part of the 50-state tour of similar displays. It was great to see so many Sacramentans out to see the show on a beautiful October Thursday night. The Bee's Vincent Moleski wrote earlier this week:
"Sutter’s Fort was originally called “Nueva Helvetia,” Latin for “New Switzerland,” and will be the only California stop on Hofstetter’s tour, Humes said.
This followed the inaugural networking event of the UC Davis College of Letters and Sciences Government and Public Policy Alumni Group, and it was great to see old and new friends, including folks who were previously just Nooner names to me. Kudos to lobbyist Jackson Gualco for his support of the group and for emceeing the event with speaker Sac councilmember Angelique Ashby. They are building a Facebook and LinkedIn page, which I'll include in this space when up-and-running."
POLL POSITION: First, major correction to yesterday. I proofread for "there" and "their" and "its" and "it's," and I a completely stupid error on Prop. 10. I know most of you like receiving The Nooner in your email, but those that get the link-only version saw a corrected version right away. I hate doing "correction" Nooners unless it's something that could cause an individual harm.
Proposition 10: Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.
Question: Proposition 10 is called the Expands Local Governments Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?
This round of the NYT/Siena College polling is complete:
Donald Trump job approval:
Donald Trump job approval:
Donald Trump job approval:
No changes in my ratings of CA48 and CA49. The former remains one of two toss-ups (with CA39) and CA49 remains Likely Democrat. However, CA10 moves back to Leans Democrat with this poll. Midway through the poll, there was a 6-point lead for Harder, but the final sample landed at 2. Averaged with the LAT/Berkeley IGS poll, that's Harder+3.5. I generally go "likely" at 5+, so it's back at "lean."
SPLIT ROLL: Speaking of polls, the final question results in the USC Dornsife poll were posted Wednesday, and I missed it among all of the other polling madness. Here is the question from the online poll (using email invites from likely voters, but don't stop with the numbers:
QUESTION: A possible statewide ballot initiative for 2020 would change Proposition 13, the state’s limit on property taxes. The proposal would allow commercial and industrial properties to be taxed at their current market value while keeping the existing property tax limits for homeowners unchanged. If this proposal makes it onto the 2020 ballot, from what you know now, would you [support] or [oppose] it?
Read the question again. Just do it.
Now, let's look at the official ballot title that voters will see in 2020. While the signatures were being tallied and have not determined that the measure is qualified, this is the title that was on petititions and will be on the ballot.
BALLOT LABEL: Requires Certain Commercial and Industrial Real Property to be Taxed Based on Fair-Market Value. Dedicates Portion of Any Increased Revenue to Education and Local Services. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
Polling fail. You never, ever poll on a tax increase without explaining what the money will be used for. Conversely, you never poll on a tax decrease without explaining what will be cut, generally or specifically.
The polling didn't mention "increased revenue to education and local services," making the poll question completely meaningless. A majority of voters never support a tax increase--even on big bad corporations--that goes into the state General Fund. As we saw yesterday, the Legislature has an overall approval rating of 43%. As always, legislative bodies as a whole don't receive high approval ratings, as they were obvious, while local legislators frequently poll higher when the name is provided to a poll respondent.
Obviously, I can't recreate the poll with a proper question, but I am guessing this fatal flaw of not informing the respondent that the money would be dedicated to education and local services results in at least a 10-point drop in overall support.
While "split roll" is now on the November 2020 ballot, although there could be a legislative deal that leads to a "ghost measure" (abandoned by proponents), the discussion is relevant this year. Supporters of Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal; road construction funding) don't believe the results of the PPIC poll I wrote up yesterday and have messaged me and blasted PPIC on social media. It was:
Question: Proposition 6 is the Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. If held today, would you vote yes or no?
That is the most accurate depiction of what voters will see on the ballot. Undecided voters at this point will largely base their vote on that title and are unlikely to spend a lot of time reading the 94-page statewide ballot pamphlet.
Like official ballot labels and summaries, which are prepared by the office of the Attorney General. There is a legal challenge process, which the Prop. 6 campaign, arguing that the AG's work was misleading and a Sac Superior judge agreed. However, the court of appeal disagreed and found it met the legal scrutiny for neutrality. The California Supreme Court did not take up a further appeal.
The LAT's Patrick McGreevy tweeted yesterday "Carl DeMaio, chair of gas-tax-repeal campaign, sends out fundraising appeal “for a legal action we plan to take next week,” seeking a “remedy” involving what he calls the “deceptive and false title that state politicians put on Prop. 6.”
In the filing period closing October 20, Yes on 6 had $88,285.98 on hand. It had $765,803.60 in debt, $370,803.60 of which is hard (not-loan) debt. So, lie about a legal challenge about a something that has already been pursued. DeMaio is raising money for a starved campaign, not a legal challenge.
Like or dislike the process for legal title summary, but it's California Constitution Art. II, Section 10(d) that puts it in the hands of the Attorney General. The implementing law provides the legal process for appealing impartiality. Want to allow proponents unfettered ability to write their own titles? Change the constitution, the same thing Prop. 6 proponents try for taking gas tax/vehicle fee-setting authority away from the Legislature.
For now, it is what it is.
Back to polling, which is also being used to keep hope alive to raise dough to pay off the consultants and attorneys, with debt that goes back to signature gathering.
They cite crap like this: "KPIX 5 / SurveyUSA Poll: Newsom Leads Cox, Prop. 6 Gas Tax Repeal Likely To Pass," aired and posted on October 17--while PPIC was out in the field. KPIX writes "On ballot measures, SurveyUSA found Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax hike recently approved by the legislature, poised to pass. The poll found 58 percent of voters supporting the repeal, while 29 percent are opposed and 13 percent are undecided."
Whoa! PPIC must be making up lies!
Well, let's look at the beaut' SurveyUSA used:
"Next, Proposition 6, a constitutional amendment which would repeal gasoline and diesel taxes, and vehicle fees, that were enacted in 2017 and would require any future fuel taxes be approved by voters. A YES vote on Prop 6 would repeal fuel tax increases that were enacted in 2017, including the Road Repaid and Accountability Act of 2017. A NO vote on Prop 6 would keep the fuel taxes imposed in 2017 by the California legislature in place, and would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future, provided 2/3 of the CA House and 2/3 of the CA Senate approved. On Proposition 6, how do you vote?"
Utter crap in context of the legal title and summary. As I wrote previously, polling malpractice is found in the phrase "would allow the legislature to impose whatever fees and taxes it approved in the future." Well, property taxes can't be changed by the Legislature. Others, like the additional cigarette tax (Prop. 56) and the income tax surcharge for mental health (Prop. 63) can't be changed without the approval of the voters. (Proposition 30's temporary income tax expires next year.)
A NO vote does not do what the poll question says it does.
Any news source that published the results of this must be embarrassed. SurveyUSA is a sham for cheap, sensationalist headlines. Losing campaigns love it, because it creates hope among donors in losing campaigns.
Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It repeals a 2017 transportation law’s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6?
Let's do a side-by side of the results of the two polls on Proposition 6:
In fairness to KPIX, the organizations that paid for and used this crap are: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco, San Diego Union-Tribune.
I don't do this to blast Proposition 6 per se. I don't espouse positions on measures unless, like Proposition 4 for children's hospitals where I have a personal (but not financial) interest. My job is to cut through the noise.
I have run a ballot measure campaign for community college funding and fee limitations that went down amidst an ugly state budget situation. I dealt with raising money and paying bills along with my brothers and sister partners in labor. I had bills to pay to keep signature gatherers on the street and, toward the failing end, to pay consulting and legal bills. We ended with no debt, unlike where Prop. 6 looks that it will land, but we of course kept the most positive message possible down the stretch.
I don't recall using polls as absurd as the SurveyUSA one, but I see why Prop. 6 supporters tout it and dismiss PPIC. For Noonerites who are unaffiliated regardless how you voted/intend to vote, take a step back and compare the methodologies and questions asked.
When it looks like crap and smells like crap, well, there you go.
More after the jump...
CA25 (Simi Valley-Palmdale): Los Angeles Daily News's Kevin Modesti writes up the debate last night between Katie Hill (D) and Congressman Steve Knight (R) in one of the hottest races in the nation. There was the awkward moment where Knight almost clapped during a point Hill made in her closing argument and then pulled back, like the fake handshake-hair smoothing "psych" we used to do as kids.
Let's just say that this is not a campaign particularly filled with comity.
¿TERCER PARTIDO POLÍTICO? For Fox&Hounds, our friend Joel Fox writes that the PPIC poll suggests Californians want a third party, but wouldn't likely agree on what it should look like. Yes, Ross Perot is still alive. We could use him to cut through the crap this cycle--on both sides. I'd like to hear him talk about promises of tax cuts after the election by the President and single-payer health care by many Democrats over the last week.
No, I didn't vote for Ross Perot or Jerry Brown in 1992. I voted for Paul Tsongas. He had me at "pander bear."
There's much more out there...I need to hop on a Jump and get myself to the PPIC briefing.
More later or tomorrow...
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Niesha Fritz!
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They Say Terrible Things About Nancy Pelosi. Her Response: Just Win, Democrats
Mark Z. Barabak @ latimes.com
With the doors locked and police standing guard, the Democratic congressional leader delivered her exhortation to dozens of volunteers — Make those phone calls, walk those precincts, the future of America’s at stake this midterm election! — as crisp and unruffled as her white pantsuit.
Judge Rules Against Activist Yvette Felarca In Lawsuit Against Busd
A judge ruled Oct. 19 that Martin Luther King Jr. Middle School teacher Yvette Felarca cannot block Berkeley Unified School District, or BUSD, from releasing documents about Felarca to conservative advocacy group Judicial Watch.
In the closing days of the election, Trump turns to his favorite weapon: Immigration
The Central American caravan provides the president with a new spin on an issue he has used to close every election since he entered the presidential contest.
Supreme Court Weighs Whether To Hear Its First Abortion-related Case Since Kavanaugh Joined The Bench
David G. Savage @ latimes.com
The Supreme Court could announce as early as Friday whether it will hear its first abortion-related appeal with newly-seated Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh.
For Transgender Americans, the Political Gets Even More Personal
The Trump administration delivered a one-two punch to transgender people just weeks before a midterm election in which a record number of L.G.B.T.Q. candidates are seeking office.