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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST -- Free and fun!
Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.
With 523 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:
I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/8-10/23/2018 has Democrats+7.3. (change from yesterday: D-0.4)
For comparison purposes only: In 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +5.7. In 2010, Republicans had an edge of +9.4 in the RCV average, with final results of Republicans +6.8. So, it's good for trends, but in the end can change within margins of error. Thank you to a Nooner reader who suggest adding 2010 and final results!
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:
Whoa! What a day yesterday was. It's okay if we simmer down a bit today, although the sun hasn't yet come up at the Nooner Global HQ and it's already getting cray-cray. I'm looking forward to seeing Aggies tonight as the UCD College of Letters and Sciences is hosting a networking session at Mulvaney's B&L for current students and alums who focus on government and public policy. I do more stuff with King Hall, but this is awesome. BTW, did I mention that Aggie football is number 6 in the FCS, #1 in the Big Sky Conference, and are 6-1, with the only loss being to Leland Stanford, Jr. University? GO AGS!
Okay, enough early-morning warm-up, we've got business to attend to. Before we get to it, congrats to Angela Hart, who is moving from the Sacramento Bee to Politico. CALmatters and Politico folks are rocking it, although I weep for the loss of so many great journalists from traditional papers.
C'MON BABY LIGHT MY IRE: In the email box this morning, we got a release from nonpartisan, nonprofit California Women Lead. with the headline "Assemblywoman Catharine Baker Joins California Women Lead Board of Directors."
Now, I think California Women Lead is a great organization. It has women leaders from both major parties who I deeply respect, including Cassandra Pye, Mona Pasquil, Fiona Ma, Kristin Olsen, President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, and others. I like Catharine Baker (R). I don't know Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (D). What I do know is that it's a bloody, multi-million dollar race that's a proxy war over charter schools, much like the Supt. of Public Instruction race. I have no personal interest in the race, but it happens to be one of about a dozen I pay attention to daily because of overall implications.
There is zero reason for California Women Lead to put out this announcement 12 days before a contested election.
POLL POSITION: As I wrote yesterday, the Public Policy Institute of California released its monthly poll yesterday with the recurring Californians and Their Government. [poll top-lines | all voters crosstabs | likely voter crosstabs]
Unless you are a new Noonerite, you know that I have been attacking polling methodology all year. I don't do it to attack the pollsters, but rather to illustrate just how difficult polling has become. I step back and look for consistency in polls and, as usual, the closer we get to Election Day, the more the polls come into agreement, regardless of methodology.
Outliers can of course be created, as it's all in the weighting. Will there be a "blue wave" on November 6 or will Democrats assume everything is just hunky-dory and leave their mail-in ballot on the kitchen table? Will the rash of bomb threats affect turnout? Will we know whether it was a legitimate attack on Democratic electeds and sympathizers or an elaborate hoax before Election Day?
We know less than we assume we know. We go by a treasure trove of data and subjective assessments, and there will be errors. But, when you reach commonality across polls, the "margin of error" becomes less relevant and the differences in methodology become less meaningful.
In governor, US Senate, Prop 6, and Prop 10, PPIC finds basically what is being seen in the private internal polls you don't see. We're basically at a consensus point.
As seen above, 1.26 million ballots have been received. I'm currently estimating that 11.5 million ballots will be cast, which is an average turnout performance averaging between 2014 and 2016 general, so better than your "normal" midterm, but certainly not a presidential. A reader asked and my response on Twitter was:
If the assumptions pan out, that means that 11% of ballots have been received and scanned as received (not tallied) by county elections offices. Some counties are faster than others, so the received number is probably a bit higher, and the receipt rate has now reached about 120k per day.
Voter registration is also not final. As Paul Mitchell noted on yesterday's PDI webinar, there is a lag of up to 5 days in registrations performed at the DMV up until Monday's deadline.
There are few undecided voters left on major races. Sure, some wealthy 54-year-olds wanting a beach house when they retire next year might be meeting with their financial advisors to decide on their vote on Prop. 5 and others may be debating whether they want to the legislator to vote to ask Congress "pretty please" to avoid having to change their clocks twice a year to decide on Prop. 7, but the persuasion time is mostly over.
The soufflé (voters) has been cooked (decided) and it's time to remove it from the oven with surgical (targeted) precision. It's all about GOTV and it's actually easier than it has ever been, if a campaign has a good "ground" campaign.
Here are some excerpts from last night's memo to Nooner Premium. For subscribers, I spent a lot of time diving in to the crosstabs for parties and demographic breakdown. There are also other questions that I'll be writing about over the next few days and after tomorrow's PPIC briefing on the poll.
Interestingly, Dianne Feinstein leads Kevin de León by double digits among both Los Angeles region and Latino voters. The gender gap in this race is wild. Feinstein is up 17 among women, while de León is up 8 among men.
Only 53% of Republicans are "yes" on the gas tax repeal, which was largely put on the ballot by money from GOP members of Congress hoping to save seats in California and elect Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) as Speaker. They have since mostly abandoned financial support for the measure, and few of their candidates, incumbent and otherwise, are using it in the campaign.
The only region where it has a lead is Orange/San Diego. That's important considering that most of the competitive congressional districts are located there. CA49 (s. Orange and n. San Diego county coast) is a goner for the GOP, and CA45 is not looking good. CA39 (Fullerton/Diamond Bar)and CA48 (Huntington Beach) are as tossity-toss-up as you can get, and that gas tax play very well could pay off with a couple of points for the Republican candidates.
Voter Enthusiasm, Generic Congressional Ballot and Job Approval
Democrats claim to be more enthusiastic than Republicans, but will it translate to votes?
U.S. Congress job approval: I gave a breakdown for approval in Dem-held districts and Rep-held districts. Not surprisingly, the response among likely voters largely reflects parties and historic response on the question.
Jerry Brown job approval:
State Legislature job approval:
Important: remember that I'm sharing Likely Voter numbers only today. Interestingly in contrast to assumptions, Jerry Brown is more popular among likely voters than all adults (48%) and registered voters (46%). Of course, that's all are within the margin of error. Trump approval is 29% (all adults), 35% (registered voters, and 39% (likely voters).
Generic congressional ballot: Okay, you get the full table provided to Nooner Premium on this question as well.
Question: "If the 2018 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [ROTATE]  the Republican candidate [OR]  the Democratic candidate] in your district?
(n=979 likely voters)
Despite the usual “noise,” the race for California’s top executive office is about what I expected, with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom turning in an 11-point lead over John Cox, the Republican businessman from Rancho Santa Fe.
Cox and Newsom court essentially the same percentage of their own parties. While Newsom pulls a larger share of GOP votes than Cox Democrats, the poll also finds a slightly greater percentage of undecided Democrats after a bruising primary. Voters with no party preference or aligned with a qualified minor party give an edge to Cox, but it’s far from enough to overcome the dominance in voter registration of Democrats of 19.42% over Republicans.
United States Senate
(n=979 likely voters)
The readers always write: Some folks have asked why I list Feinstein before de León in my alphabetization of candidates. It is because KDL's legal name is Kevin Alexander León, and that is reflected on his voter registration. However, the native Angeleno uses "de León" in a tip to his heritage. Despite, his tough spot in the polls and where you feel about him politically, nobody denies that he has shown that he is indeed of the lion during his time in the State Capitol. Of course, ballot order is determined by a random drawing by the Secretary of State and changes at each Assembly District level.
Like the race for governor, the competition to represent The Golden State in the United States in the poll generally lands within what was expected.
Nearly one-fourth of likely voters don’t plan on voting in the two-Democrat general election, including 51% of all Republicans.
Perhaps most surprising that de León is not getting a recognizable edge with either Latino voters or those in the Los Angeles region. This running against a white San Franciscan, with voters actually seeing Feinstein’s “junior,” Senator Kamala Harris on the television more than the one who is actually up for election this year.
Feinstein loaned her campaign $8 million for the cycle, of which she has repaid herself $4.75 million, leaving $2.25 million outstanding of the loan. Including that, she ended the third quarter with $4.1 million on hand.
When Feinstein put that much of her money on the table, it accomplished three things—it sent a message that she was in it to win it, dissuaded independent groups from lining up behind possible opponents, and freed up her schedule from fundraising. She raised $982k to de Leon’s $208k in Q3. Combined, the two raised less than nine Democratic congressional challengers, none of whom ever have held elective office.
Feinstein clearly has a consistent lead in polls and continues to be overwhelmingly favored.
Yes, only two were tested so don't ask about others. PPIC uses the official ballot label in the question, rather than summaries crafted by other polls, some unbiased and others unbiased from my biased perspective. That said, at this stage of the game, undecided voters are going to go by ballot label and are not reading the 94-page state ballot pamphlet, so the PPIC approach at this point is correct.
Proposition 6: Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees Be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.
(n=974 likely voters)
Question: Proposition 6 is the Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. If held today, would you vote yes or no?
Proposition 10: Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.
Question: Proposition 10 is called the Expands Local Governments Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?
[Overall methodology: n=1,704 adult residents; 989 likely voters; 10/12-10/21/18; live telephone; English/Spanish; MOE: +/-3.3% for full sample, +/-4.2% for likely voters]
Two of the three NYT/Siena College "live" polls are now complete, and the third has a satisfactory sample to share results. CA10 will continue and likely be completed tonight.
Donald Trump job approval:
Donald Trump job approval:
Donald Trump job approval:
More after the jump...
CA48 (Huntington Beach): AP's Michael R. Blood reports that Dana Rohrabacher (R) is shedding his Republican background in his competitive re-election race, replacing it with a "political maverick" theme as someone willing to take on both parties.
AD32 (Kings): Dan Morain writes for CALmatters that the ag industry is trying to take out Assemblymember Rudy Salas (D-Fresno). "Agricultural interests have poured $420,000 in recent days into a push to unseat Bakersfield Democrat Rudy Salas Jr., who voted for a landmark bill in 2016 granting farm workers overtime."
PROP 3 (water bond): For CapPubRad, Ezra David Romero looks at the undercard Proposition 3, which has insiders divided but which few voters know anything about.
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Angelica Gonzalez!
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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Proposition 10's Support Craters In New Poll, Which Shows 60% Of Voters Are Against Rent Control Initiative
Liam Dillon @ latimes.com
An initiative to expand rent control across California is losing ground and now faces a large deficit less than two weeks before election day, according to a new poll.
A Black Senate Candidate Stumps in Mississippi, but His Party Holds Him Back
Mike Espy, former President ClintonâÂÂs agriculture secretary, could emerge as the top vote-getter in MississippiâÂÂs Senate race on Election Day, but the runoff will be the hard part.
San Diego Union-tribune Staff, Others Briefly Evacuated After Suspicious Packages Spotted - The San Diego Union-tribune
Lyndsay Winkley @ sandiegouniontribune.com
President Trump Says He Wants to Reform Prisons. His Attorney General Has Other Ideas.
JUSTIN GEORGE @
Jeff Sessions is overseeing a drastic cutback in the number of prisoners sent to halfway houses and home confinement.
Saudi Arabia Says Khashoggi Killing Was Premeditated
Saudi Arabia's public prosecutor said Thursday that Jamal Khashoggi was killed in a planned operation, based on information it received from Turkish investigators in Istanbul.
Polls show voters want candidates to preserve protections for those with preexisting medical conditions. But eight years of health-care repeal efforts are taking their toll on Republicans.
San Diego County Rep. Duncan Hunter And His Wife Are Indicted On Campaign Finance Violations
Rep. Duncan Hunter and his wife have been indicted for allegedly using $250,000 in campaign money for personal expenses.