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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST
Here are the current tallies of the picks of contest participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much candidates will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make or update picks.
With 494 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest (<60%) projected wins:
I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, and the individual race answers will not be listed.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 10/1-10/17/2018 has Democrats+7.7. (change from yesterday: no change)
For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS FROM PDI:
Voter Registration Deadline Tonight at 11:59:59pm
As noted above, CA39 (Fullerton/Diamond Bar) moved to Leans Dem from Toss-up on FiveThirtyEight this morning, and CA10 (Stanislaus) moved from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat. The CA39 change is due to the addition of the NYT/Sienna College poll discussed below. It is only half-finished leading to a 5% MOE, so make of it what you will. CA10 seems to have moved with September campaign finance reports and the generic tracker.
The NYT/Sienna polls over the next few days will be key to a better read. I'll be revisting CA39 (currently toss-up) and CA10 (Stanislaus) as they are completed.
ABSENTEE VOTE WEBINAR: You saw above that I added the daily statewide updates from PDI's Absentee Vote Tracker. You can use the tracker down to state and federal district level, as well as local governments and geography. There is also a demographic breakdown for ballots mailed out and returned. I don't get paid to say this, but it's awesome.
Paul Mitchell and Nick Zoteslo from PDI have added a second webinar to explain what you're looking at and how to use it for Wednesday, from 2pm-3pm.
$$$ FOR TURNOUT: You're not seeing Tom Steyer's "Need to Impeach" mug constantly on the teevee attacking President Trump, but that doesn't mean he's gone into hiding. For the LA Times, Christine Mai-Duc writes that his NextGen America is focused on turning out new and low-propensity young voters.:
"Steyer, whose advocacy group NextGen America has pledged $33 million to engage young voters in 11 states — $3.5 million alone in California — insists that his is no quixotic venture. He and others believe that the only hope Democrats have of taking control of Congress is to inspire new and infrequent voters to cast ballots as a check on President Trump."
As Mai-Duc writes, the success of the program is unknown and won't be for awhile after Election Day after the dust settles. Young voters are notoriously difficult to turn out, particularly in an anger election such as 2018. Young voters are engaged in some states on the gun violence issue because of organizing by the Parland, Florida students, but there is no evidence whatsoever that there has been an effect among California's potential young voters.
Last night, I watched the CA39 (Fullerton) and CA48 (Huntington Beach) debates on C-SPAN. There was nothing to inspire a first-time young voter and if you tuned in, it was "older angry people," particularly in the CA39 conflict clash. Neither candidate provided any inspiration, but the odds of young people watching C-SPAN on a Sunday night are like me leaving my teevee on for Joel Osteen after Face the Nation on Sunday mornings.
Yes, I know that candidates are posting pictures of young campaign volunteers on social media. Campaigns always have young volunteers. Richard Nixon had a brigade. We're not talking about them, but rather the 75-80% of 18-29 year old voters who regularly sit out midterm elections.
However, FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley writes that there are indications that youth turnout may actually be higher in 2018. "[C]ombining the Democratic lean of younger voters with the perceived enthusiasm advantage of Democrats over Republicans in this year’s midterm, it makes sense that we might see greater participation by young voters in a Democratic-leaning electoral environment."
I'll believe it when I see it. Meanwhile, kids, get off my lawn.
POLL POSITION: The New York Times/Siena College collaboratice continues to add "live polls" to its rolling effort and we have three more California ones that were added to the mix over the weekend.
For the new Noonerites, this is a series of polls conducted by live interview in selected competitive congressional races around the country. The results are shared live as they come in once there are 250 respondents, and then continue until they reach 500 to reach a 3.5% margin of error. They are weighted in the normal demographic fashion for likely turnout, and have proved consistent with other legit polls, both internal and independent, we have seen in these races.
Here are the new three that are ongoing for the next few nights:
Donald Trump job approval:
THE #METOO PLAY: Republican challengers are on the attack against Democrat state legislators, using alleged laxity in the crackdown on lawmakers accused of sexual harassment, reports Alexei Koseff in the Bee. The claims are being used against Ken Cooley (AD08), Sabrina Cervantes (AD60), and Sharon Quirk-Silva (AD65).
Be careful with fire folks. The President is, well, not a great banner on the issue and the GOP candidate for governor had his attacks on affairs of two Democratic guber candidates backfire when his own affair allegations was discovered in court documents LAST WEEK. And, the OG remember that the name for The Nooner came from the braggadocio claims by a GOP member about his lunchtime Hyatt affairs with two female lobbyists.
Yeah, that member resigned from the Quirk-Silva seat. And, while sexual assault and harassment are far worse, such interactions by an elected with lobbyists are certainly ethically suspect. Desperation is clearly setting in when the stones are picked up from within glass houses.
WILL GASSY HIGH HOPES SAVE THE GOP? Political commentators Sherry and Douglas Jeffe don't think so. "The California establishment is pretty much united against Proposition 6. Business, labor. environmentalists, local governments and the construction industry have weighed in heavily against Proposition 6. The NO side is vastly outspending Prop 6 proponents and the Republican Party and House leadership have turned off the funding tap for the YES side. Recent polling indicates that Proposition 6 is in trouble."
The problem for Prop 6 proponents is twofold. First, the GOP whales (and there are many still in California despite the overall partisan bias) aren't passionately against the gas tax. An overwhelming number of major businesses are opposed, leading to the opposition from the California Chamber of Commerce. While labor benefits from the roadwork funded by the tax, so do tons of private businesses, which range from small subcontractors to behemoths like Sacramento's Teichert.
Owners and leaders of these businesses may vote GOP, but they're not going to take money out of their pockets to support a ballot measure that will take money away that is going in to their pockets through work. I've written before that the proponents overreached by adding the kicker of requiring all future tax and vehicle-related increases to be approved with a vote of the people. That includes inflationary increases on fixed-rate, rather than %, taxes.
Thus, the Yes campaign is raising money in small dollar amounts. While that's working for congressional challengers through large national networks, that doesn't work for a California gas tax repeal. The measure would not have qualified had it not been for the support of House Republicans concerned with California congressional races in the context of making Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) Speaker and keeping the gavel from going to Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco). After qualification, they went back focusing on defending their seats, rather than to see a gas tax repeal to the finish line.
The other factor is the one that few people are willing to talk about on the record. Carl De Maio is not liked among most in the California Republican Party. I'll leave whether it's because he's a San Diego moderate in the vain of pre-Prop 187 Pete Wilson or because he is gay and ran an ad holding his partner's hand for you to discuss at the water cooler. I don't know De Maio personally and only know this from conversations with GOP insiders over several years.
Let's just say that the GOP is not going all-in on the gas tax as hoped by Prop 6 supporters. The money is simply not coming forth from the usual party benefactors, and De Maio is part of the reason. But, the bigger one is the opposition by big business leaders. Both parties are responsive to these business players and how their priorities have a correlation to political strategy down the stretch.
More after the jump...
ALL POLITICS IS LOCO: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes about the fine line that local governments must follow when they have measures on the ballot before the voters. Public funds can not be used to expressly encourage a vote one way or another. That's well known. Objective information about the impact of a vote either way is allowable. Just how close to a saying "yes" or "no" without going over the line is a lot more complicated and, well, you can always find an attorney to take either side of a challenge.
OAKTOWN: In the East Bay Times, George Kelley writes that Oakland mayor Libby Schaaf has ordered the police department to stop asking applicants to waive their rights in background investigations that would reveal if they have been past victims of sexual assault. The action was in response to an article published yesterday by the Chron's Kimberly Veklerov.
NGUYỄNING! For the Los Angeles Times, Anh Do writes why first name is more important than last name for lawn signs for many Orange County races. "In this part of the traditionally Republican county, it is open to debate whether a much-touted Democratic “blue wave” will sweep through the midterm elections. But it’s indisputable that there will be a Nguyen wave."
Okay, since Anh wrote it, we can use the "Nguyen Nguyen" joke here, which was last used in a San Jose City Council race.
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Gil Gonzales and Mike Shimpock!
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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
2018: The Health Care Election
airing totals @ mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
After the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, pro-Democratic ads tended to avoid the issue of health care. It appeared in a mere 8.7 percent of ad airings in 2010, 7.6 percent in 2012, 7.0 percent in 2014, and 10 percent in 2016, a stark contrast to the 54.5 percent of pro-Democratic airings in 2018 that mentioned health care.
Tax Cuts A Bust For Republicans In Midterms - Politico
With polls showing Americans are more likely to disapprove of the tax law than to approve of it, GOP candidates have been changing the subject to other issues like immigration and health care. Some of the lawmakers who wrote the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are even struggling to hang onto their seats.
Is There Interference In The 2018 U.S. Midterm Elections?
Associated Press @ latimes.com
A look at what is known about foreign efforts to interfere in U.S. elections.
The Health 202: These four states will vote on marijuana in the midterms
Michigan and North Dakota will vote on legalizing pot for recreational use. Utah and Missouri will vote on medical marijuana.
Sharon Quirk Silva Is Scary – Voter Discretion Advised
On Politics: Republicans Fret Over Key Battleground Races
Republican leaders worry that candidates for governor and Senate are in trouble in several key battleground states, and that difficulties could spill into House races.
3 UC Berkeley Professors Elected To National Academy Of Medicine
Three UC Berkeley professors were elected Monday to serve in the National Academy of Medicine, or NAM, for their research on issues related to health and medicine.
Running Anti-muslim Campaigns 'a Losing Strategy,' Report Finds - Politico
Muslim advocates say Rep. Duncan Hunter is running the most anti-Muslim campaign in the country. | Denis Poroy/AP Photo
Barbara Lee, Laura Wells Vie For 13th Congressional District Seat
Though Wells said she believes that Lee, as an incumbent, has a very high chance of winning the election, Wells hopes that the Green Party can make a name for itself by being represented on the November ballot.