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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.

With 367 participants as of this morning, here are some of the closest projected wins: 

IC Ricardo Lara (D) 48.38%
IC Steve Poizner (N) 51.62%

 

CD39 Young Kim (R) 42.50%
CD39 Gil Cisneros (D)

57.50%

 

SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 43.83%
SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 56.17%

 

SD22 Michael Eng (D) 45.66%
SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 54.34%

 

AD38 Christy Smith (D) 46.67%
AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 53.33%

 

AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 42.62%
AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 57.38%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

 

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E-26

 

BALANCE OF POWER:

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - 1 toss-up -- CA48 (Huntington Beach
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and Reps holding in Baker (AD16).

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/7/2018 has Democrats+6.9. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 19.0% D, 20.0% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.3)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.8%, de León 40.2% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 77.7%% D, 22.3% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.3)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.1% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

  

Happy Thursday to you! I've voted, have you?

An astute reader caught a few errors on the voter registration worksheet (AD43, AD49, AD53) that occurred when I was translating the SOS data for input in to my database. I think things are okay now, both on the website and spreadsheet that compares with 2014.

Nooner Premium subscribers: If you did not receive the special email with the link to my new weekly Premium election memo yesterday, email me and I'll send it to you as an attachment.

THE CONGRESSIONAL LANDSCAPE, RANKED: From my perspective based on several objective and subjective indicators, here is the landscape as I see it, ranked in order of competitiveness. This is competitiveness overall, going in either partisan direction. Thus, CA49 is less competitive than CA50, because while both are more likely than not to flip parties, CA49 is far more likely to.

Yet, even though CA49 is "likely" while CA21 and CA22 are "lean," there will be plenty activity in CA49. This is a ranking of competitiveness down the stretch, not of partisan likelihood. It just works out this year that the truly competitive races in California are all Republican-held seats. The hope at the beginning of the cycle was that CA07 would be competitive, so I list it, but it really is not and is not being played in by parties or significant PACs.

There is truly nothing scientific in this ranking and I'm sure I'll hear from some of you with ideas of re-ordering, which is fine.

  1. CA39 (Fullerton): Gil Cisneros (D) v. Young Kim (R) -- Toss-up
  2. CA48 (Huntington Beach): *Dana Rohrabacher (R) v. Harley Rouda (D) -- Toss-up
  3. CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): Katie Hill (D) v. *Steve Knight (R) -- Leans Democrat
  4. CA45 (Irvine): *Mimi Walters (R) v. Katie Porter (D) -- Leans Democrat
  5. CA21 (Kings): TJ Cox (D) v. *David Valadao (R) -- Leans Republican
  6. CA49 (Oceanside): Diane Harkey (R) v. Mike Levin (D) -- Likely Democrat
  7. CA22 (Tulare): Andrew Janz (D) v. *Devin Nunes -- Leans Republican
  8. CA04 (Foothills): *Tom McClintock (R) v. Jessica Morse (D) -- Leans Republican
  9. CA07 (South/East Sacramento County): *Ami Bera (D) v. Andrew Grant (R) -- Likely Democrat

U.S. SENATE: The Public Policy Institute of California has announced that it will be hosting a conversation with Senate candidates Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de León on Wednesday, October 17, 2018 from 11:45am-1:15pm in San Francisco. While space is limited, the event will be live-streamed. You can register to watch the live-stream and will receive a reminder. 

de León's camp is unhappy that it's a conversation format rather than a debate that allows the candidates to address each other, but at least he'll share a stage with her. Feinstein hasn't "debated" since 2000, which was against Tom Campbell.

GOV: For CALmatters, Ben Christopher profiles GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox. "In nearly a half-dozen campaigns for Congress, U.S. Senate and yes, even the presidency, Cox has embraced the persona of the anti-politician assailing a corrupt establishment. The strategy hasn’t worked yet. But as he seeks to become governor of California, the 63-year-old lawyer, accountant and investment manager is hoping 2018 will be different."

PROP. 6: In the Bee, Alexei Koseff tries to make sense of how much the gas tax really costs the average driver. Alexei, can you translate that into rideshare fares?

$$$: In the Times, Liam Dillon writes that a new analysis that eliminating the carry-forward of base property taxes for vacation and second home properties to the heirs of the decedent could raise $2 billion to the state and local entities. Proponents of eliminating the carry-forward argue that Proposition 13 protections were meant to protect residential homeowners, and a Times analysis found many cases in which well known wealthy individuals inherited property on beaches and elsewhere and are paying decades-old valuations. 

The analysis was from the Legislative Analyst's Office as part of the fiscal analysis for a proposed 2020 initiative on multiple issues sponsored by the California Association of Realtors. That measure was cleared for circulation yesterday.

BALLOT BATTLES (that few understand): For CALmatters, Dan Walters gives the 'splainer on what Propositions 8 and 11 mean and why voters are deciding them on next month's ballot.   

MIXED MESSAGES: While the tech content industry is divided between content and delivery providers over the federal government's lawsuit against the California's new net neutrality law, the are also pushing Washington to block the state's new consumer privacy law. McClatchy's Emily Cadei reports "Representatives for Google, Twitter, Apple, Amazon, AT&T and Charter Communications argued before the same Senate committee on Sept. 26 that Congress needed to pass a federal data standard to prevent a “patchwork” of state laws, like California’s."

PROP 4 (children's hospitals bond): This is a a post I made yesterday on Facebook:

Since I write on politics, I don't endorse, contribute, or get active in campaigns anymore. But, I'll explain and put in a good word for Proposition 4--the children's hospital bond.

Why is there a proposed bond for children's hospitals, when several of them are private, non-profit and not public hospitals? It has to do with Medi-Cal reimbursement rates. Children are disproportionately on Medi-Cal through the state's expansion through the Healthy Families program, which is the state's implementation of the federal "CHIP" program that you have likely heard of during federal budget stalemates.

Well, Medi-Cal reimburses at a lower rate than private insurers do. The designated children's hospitals that are eligible under Proposition 4 serve a disproportionate share of kids covered under Healthy Families/Medi-Cal. That makes it difficult for those hospitals to create a safe, caring environment available to those who pay privately or have private insurance and can pick and choose where to go.

Without the federal government increasing the Medicaid/CHIP reimbursement rates, either the hospitals fall into disrepair, capital construction costs are shifted to private-pay children, or a state solution is found. We could raise provider Medi-Cal for children rates across-the-board, but that would benefit some for-profit hospital corporations or non-profits that have a relatively small share of Medi-Cal children. That would come from the state General Fund. Or, we can issue a general obligation bond serviced by the General Fund, with requirements for non-profit recipient hospitals. This is the best state solution.   

For the third time (both previously successful), the children's hospitals are seeking a bond to fund the construction and renovation of their facilities. All of them are non-profit, and all must meet certain accountability and service thresholds.

The bond is for $1.5 billion, which is for twelve eligible hospitals, including each of those affiliated with a UC campus.

For those who have known me for a long time, you know that I spent lots of time staying in Children's Hospital of Orange County with crappy lungs. I lost a lot of friends there. Later, I was happy to work there for three years in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit.

I'll leave it that. I won't tell you how to vote, but I believe it makes fiscal sense in the overall state fiscal context (which is very strong). And, I just completed my ballot, and I was happiest when I was filling up that bubble.

Note: I have zero professional relationship with the bond measure and nobody asked for this message, but I owe it to them for what they gave to me and my friends when we were children at CHOC.

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: Aaron Read and Associates: administrative assistant for lobbying firm
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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MINIMUM WAGE: For Voice of OC, Thy Vo writes that Anaheim's Measure L, the $15 --> $20, then inflated minimum wage initiative proposal on the ballot, may apply to GardenWalk Mall across from Disneyland and the DoubleTree Hotel next to the Convention Center, and not just to Disneyland and the four luxury hotels discussed by proponents. 

GardenWalk has a collection of chain restaurants including Bubba Gump's, California Pizza Kitchen, Cheesecake Factory, House of Blues, Johnny Rockets, McCormick and Schmicks, P.F. Changs, and Roy's, in addition to more than a dozen retail stores. In the spring, a movie theatre is scheduled to open. I've never been there but I think I would go a few blocks to eat at a family-owned Vietnamese, Korean, or Mexican restaurant. Aside from better food, they don't get tax incentives.

California's minimum wage is currently $11/hour ($10.50 for employers with 25 or fewer employees). Under SB 3 (Leno--Chapter 3, Statutes of 2016) is scheduled to go to $12/hour on January 1, 2019, $13/hour on January 1, 2020, $14/hour on January 1, 2021, and $15/hour on January 1, 2022. Employers with 25 or fewer employees have a slower escalation that reaches $15/hour on January 1, 2023. Annually after the respective wages reach $15/hour, the minimum would be increased by inflation annually by the consumer price index, with a maximum of 3.5% in any given year, although it would not be reduced in negative CPI years.

Measure L imposes the faster path to $15 on developments associated with the Disneyland Resort that have received specified targeted tax incentives by the City of Anaheim. Disneyland Resort itself has already reached collective bargaining agreements with its union employees to move to $15/hour on January 1.

There is no easy solution. Cities draw in large developments/redevelopments through tax incentives. In the long run for the city it makes sense. However, it creates a patchwork of inequality for businesses. So would Measure L. California's minimum wage does not have a tip calculation as many states/cities do. The serving employees at the big chain restaurants will be making $15 plus tips That could easily be $25-$35/hour at those branded, high-ticket restaurants. Meanwhile, the working mom at IHOP one block away from GardenWalk will be $12/hour plus tips, which might work out to $20/hour. 

And, yes, let's not ignore the social equity issue as to who is hired to work as a server at House of Blues versus IHOP. One benefits from a higher wage because their employer got a tax incentive and one doesn't because of their demographic. (Yeah, try proving employment discrimination in cases where hundreds of applications a month come in.)

Another inequity is that many tip-earning employees "tip-out," or share their tips, to those who do not directly receive tips, such as kitchen staff, bussers and hosts. Most larger restaurants have a formalized system, although enforcement is tricky. Smaller restaurants and varying models ("full-service" vs. "fast-casual") make equity more difficult to determine. I'll admit, when I got two "paleo" burger combo meals (yes, that's with fries) at Burger Lounge before "A Star is Born" on Sunday, I didn't know how much to tip for the order at the counter that was later brought to the table. Since it was on a card, that's tracked. If it was in the jar, it's up to the manager.

The tipping issue is really complicated because of tracking. Obviously, tips by credit card are easily tracked, but what about that $100 bill I would leave for a hotel maid at Thanksgiving or Christmas if I was traveling at the time? (That's when I had a nice salary.) That can't be tracked (and I would do that also with a smaller, but large cash tip at a restaurant at that time of year, even if I paid with a card). 

The problem is patchwork policy, and it applies both ways. A patchwork of tax incentives. A patchwork of minimum wages. There is no such thing as the Kingdom of Disneyland Resort, so there is no easy way to create policy. Both tax incentives and triggered minimum wages create unfair playing fields for business (particularly small businesses) and employees. 

To be honest, if Measure L was on my ballot when I filled it out yesterday, I don't know what I would do. It's a true policy quandary.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Reggie Fair and Lisa Silverman!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Of course, I was talking about CA49 (Oceanside) yesterday in the Bloomberg independent expenditure, not CA48. And my fingers typed "Conversation Voters" on the same item. It's of course the green type and not necessarily the talkative type.

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

  • Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
GOP At Risk Of Losing Several Key Governorships At A Crucial Political Moment
Evan Halper @
latimes.com
In governor's races throughout the nation, the GOP's lock on state power is in serious jeopardy as candidates in even the reddest states struggle. GOP losses in the states will reverberate for years, as the winners in November will be drawing the next decade's political boundaries.

Midterm fear factor: Republicans, Democrats stoke anxiety over health care, rule of law

In closing arguments to voters, the GOP is painting Democrats as extremists, while Democrats portray Republicans as a threat to Americans with preexisting medical conditions.

Kavanaugh Backs Trump Administration On Jailing And Deporting Immigrants For Crimes Committed Years Earlier
David G. Savage @
latimes.com
The Supreme Court will review a California case that will decide whether long-time legal immigrants will be arrested and jailed for past criminal convictions.

Democratic Senators Demand Pompeo Reverse Visa Denials For Lgbtq Diplomats' Partners - Politico
JESUS RODRIGUEZ @

A supporter of LGBT rights holds up an "equality flag" on Capitol Hill in Washington on Wednesday, July 26, 2017. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP photo