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THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST
Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.
With 335 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest projected wins:
I previously announced the awards:
In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.
Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.
You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.
Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants.
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/7/2018 has Democrats+6.9. (change from yesterday: D-0.4)
This includes a new CNN poll of Dems+13 among likely voters, which is certainly an outlier.
For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
BALLOT SCORECARD: The Klink/Forward Observer ballot measure editorial scorecard has been updated. "First of all, Gavin Newsom is not on crack. The ad is also deceptive because it blames Newsom, a former mayor of San Francisco, for policies he was not involved in implementing."
THE CLUB: Senator Dianne Feinstein joined Hillary Clinton in the "Lock Her Up!" club last night, as Trump turned his ire toward the ranking member of Senate Judiciary during an Iowa rally. Of course, someone forgot to put our cue-card on the prompter:
He just does it to get under her skin. (no I don't know why I put that extra N and the end of Harvey's, but I'm too lazy/busy this morning to re-create it.
PROP 6 (gas tax repeal/road construction): The LAT's Patrick McGreevy reports on the efforts by the Yes on 6 campaign to highlight high salaries at Caltrans and other transportation agency employees. Carl DeMaio will be holding a presser in from of the MTA headquarters in Los Angeles today.
GOV: The Bee's Angela Hart does the smell test on the independent "Are you on crack?" ad against Gavin Newsom. Meanwhile, the AP's Don Thompson fact checks the two gubernatorial candidates on their answers on the recent change from a money bail to risk-assessment release.
CA08 (San Bernardino High Desert): For the Desert Sun, Samuel Metz looks at the only race pitting two Republicans against each other, which means its different like any other. Cpngressman Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) is being challenged from the right by former assemblyman Tim Donnelly (R-Twin Peaks). Metz writes:
"Cook’s congressional votes have aligned with President Trump’s agenda 98 percent of the time according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, but to unseat the incumbent congressman, Donnelly’s strategy is to convince voters he isn’t sufficiently conservative. On the campaign trail, Donnelly has said his outsider persona and record as a border security hawk liken him to President Trump. Donnelly has focused on wedge issues, painting himself as the more conservative candidate and casting Cook as an anti-Trump centrist, a charge Cook denies."
CA49 (Oceanside): While the parties have largely considered the race over in favor of Democrat Mike Levin, the League of Conversation Voters, with funding from Michael Bloomberg, is spending $780,000 to seal the deal to flip the seat currently held by Darrell Issa (R-Vista).
CA50 (East San Diego County): The first independent expenditure in CA50 has emerged, $100,000 in support of Ammar Campa-Najjar. The expenditure is through PowerPAC and is to the Alliance San Diego Mobilization Fund for a field program.
VOTER REG: Secretary of State Alex Padilla held a presser yesterday to address the Los Angeles Times report that an additional 1,500 voters were inappropriately automatically registered by the DMV, including at least one non-citizen. Mini Racker reports:
"The registration errors might have been caused by the motor voter program, which requires Californians to opt out if they do not want to be registered to vote when they get a driver’s license. Padilla said that a freeze of the program was on the table, and has also called for an independent audit of the DMV’s technology and procedures. . . .
"Upon discovering the mistakes, the secretary of State’s office immediately cancelled the incorrect registrations, and any affected ballots will not be counted on election day. But Padilla said his office is still uncertain as to whether people who were registered incorrectly voted in the primaries."
REAPPORTIONMENT AND REDISTRICTING: The Public Policy Institute of California is out with a new study that looks at the upcoming 2020 census and what it will mean for reapportionment. For those that forget between the ten-year interim, reapportionment is the allocation of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. After that happen, it is up to the states to redistrict, or divide up their apportionment. In California, that is now done by the Citizens Commission.
I know that's basic for a lot of you, but I still reapportionment and redistricting used interchangeably all the time.
Anyway, the PPIC study provides a strong likelihood that California will remain static at 53 congressional districts. However, if there is a low count with a low-accuracy and immigration-related undercount, the state could drop to 52 seats. In other words, one person would be on the chopping block. Further, undercount in certain communities could result in underrepresentation in the ultimate districts drawn by the Citizens Commission.
The report cites that 1990 resulted in an undercount that would, if repeated, lead to the same worst case they warn about 2020. The report states that the 2010 Census was the was "the most accurate in the nation's history."
Low-accuracy undercount: PPIC identifies two areas that could lead to a low-accuracy undercount in 2010, and both deal with funding. Like 2010, the first round will be through a survey before human follow-up is pursued. In 2010, the first round was done by mail. The Census Bureau plans to do the first round by Internet in 2020. While that might sound like a no-brainer to many of us, we don't have to think long to also think of the downsides. PPIC cites that the cost-saving Internet collection will likely disadvantage the same communities undercounted using the pencil-and-paper method. (Yes, I said pencil, and many of you said "what's that?" I think the last time I used a pencil was on the bar exam.)
The second is overall underfunding of the Census Bureau, the report states. This affects both the pre-Census education as well as the follow-up budget for those who do not complete the first-round survey.
Immigration-related undercount: While the purpose of the Census is a full enumeration of every person regardless of citizenship status, immigrant groups in the past have been harder to count for a variety of issues. PPIC writes that this has been heightened by the current political environment and the addition of a question of citizenship to the Census. Such a question has not been asked of all participants since 1950. While Census data is treated like IRS data and private to the Bureau, there is still a belief that the question would lead to an increased non-response rate from households with immigrants, with or without legal residency.
While this report is focused on the impact of political representation, Census data is used throughout the federal and state governments for apportionment of many different funding streams that are meant to be aligned with true population, and not "citizen voting age population." While the latter is used to evaluate fairness in election systems, base true population is meant for the underlying district size and funding apportionments.
The addition of the citizenship question is being challenged over procedural issues administrative law.
Not just about 52 or 53, but how the lines are drawn - After the Census is conducted, the Citizens Commission has to draw the specified number of congressional seats, four Board of Equalization districts, forty State Senate districts, and eighty Assembly districts. Meanwhile, counties, cities, and school districts also use the Census data for the accurate drawing of lines. In all of these cases, it's not just an accurate top-line that is essential to be accurate, but in many cases, racial demographics.
There is a PPIC briefing tomorrow on the report that I plan to attend, so I may have more.
More below the jump . . .
FIRE AND DOUGH: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall reports that the company that has been criticized for its response in its federal contract to clean-up after last year's Santa Rosa fire has given significant sums to the California Democratic Party and Gavin Newsom. Rosenhall writes:
"AshBritt, which contracted with the federal government to clean up the disaster, and another company owned by AshBritt chairman Randal Perkins together donated $250,000 to the state Democratic Party on Oct. 4, campaign filings show. Two weeks earlier, AshBritt CEO Brittany Perkins donated $29,200 to Newsom’s campaign, the maximum allowed."
FIRE AND LIABILITY: CAL FIRE pointed the finger at PG&E yesterday for being responsible for yet another fire, the Yuba County's Cascade Fire last October, due to "sagging" power lines, reports Dale Kasler in The Bee. "The investigation into the Cascade Fire “found no negligence,” said Cal Fire spokesman Mike Mohler in an email." That means that ratepayers are likely on the hook.
#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Victoria Grajek, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, and Dan Walters!
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TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Campaign To Repeal Gas-tax Increase Attacks Spending By Caltrans, Los Angeles Mta
Patrick McGreevy @ latimes.com
The Proposition 6 campaign on Tuesday cited six-figure salaries given to thousands of government transportation workers as among the reasons why California voters should approve the initiative that would repeal fuel tax and vehicle fee increases enacted last year. Less than a month before the Nov...
Senate Democrats Fail To Block Trump's Short-term Health Plans - Politico
The Senate vote ended in a 50-50 tie, falling short of the majority needed to pass the measure reversing new regulations allowing insurers to sell skimpy health plans outside the Obamacare markets for up to a year, rather than the previous limit of three months.
Celebrity Advocates Use Social Media To Influence Which California Bills Become Law
Mini Racker @ latimes.com
As California legislators cast votes in the final hours of this year’s session, celebrities leveraged their fan bases on Facebook and Twitter to encourage lawmakers to pass bills and Gov. Jerry Brown to sign them into law.
Kamala Harris To Make First South Carolina Trip Ahead Of 2020 - Politico
California Sen. Kamala Harris has helped raise or donated more than $6.5 million for Democratic candidates and causes across the country this year. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images