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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.

With 335 participants as of this morning, here are a some of the closest projected wins:

 

IC Ricardo Lara (D) 47.52%
IC Steve Poizner (N) 52.48%

 

CD39 Young Kim (R) 44.56%
CD39 Gil Cisneros (D) 55.44%

 

SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 43.43%
SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 56.57%

 

SD22 Michael Eng (D) 46.57%
SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 53.43%

 

AD38 Christy Smith (D) 45.90%
AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 54.10%

 

AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 43.07%
AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 56.93%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

 

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E-27

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA48 (Huntington Beach): changed from Leans Democrat to Toss-up

BALANCE OF POWER:

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45) and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - 1 toss-up -- CA48 (Huntington Beach
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and Reps holding in Baker (AD16).

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/7/2018 has Democrats+6.9. (change from yesterday: D-0.4) 

This includes a new CNN poll of Dems+13 among likely voters, which is certainly an outlier.

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 19.3% D, 80.7% R (Change from yesterday: R+2.4)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.8%, de León 40.2% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein+0.1)
  • House control: 77.4%% D, 22.6% R (Change from yesterday: D+1.3)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R (Change from yesterday: D+2)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.1% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

BALLOT SCORECARD: The Klink/Forward Observer ballot measure editorial scorecard has been updated. "First of all, Gavin Newsom is not on crack. The ad is also deceptive because it blames Newsom, a former mayor of San Francisco, for policies he was not involved in implementing."

THE CLUB: Senator Dianne Feinstein joined Hillary Clinton in the "Lock Her Up!" club last night, as Trump turned his ire toward the ranking member of Senate Judiciary during an Iowa rally. Of course, someone forgot to put our cue-card on the prompter:

Feinstein Pronunciation

He just does it to get under her skin. (no I don't know why I put that extra N and the end of Harvey's, but I'm too lazy/busy this morning to re-create it.

PROP 6 (gas tax repeal/road construction): The LAT's Patrick McGreevy reports on the efforts by the Yes on 6 campaign to highlight high salaries at Caltrans and other transportation agency employees. Carl DeMaio will be holding a presser in from of the MTA headquarters in Los Angeles today.

GOVThe Bee's Angela Hart does the smell test on the independent "Are you on crack?" ad against Gavin Newsom. Meanwhile, the AP's Don Thompson fact checks the two gubernatorial candidates on their answers on the recent change from a money bail to risk-assessment release.

LG: Eleni Kounalakis doubled her cash on hand yesterday by throwing a cool mill of her own money into her campaign for lieutenant governor.

CA08 (San Bernardino High Desert): For the Desert Sun, Samuel Metz looks at the only race pitting two Republicans against each other, which means its different like any other. Cpngressman Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley) is being challenged from the right by former assemblyman Tim Donnelly (R-Twin Peaks). Metz writes:

"Cook’s congressional votes have aligned with President Trump’s agenda 98 percent of the time according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight, but to unseat the incumbent congressman, Donnelly’s strategy is to convince voters he isn’t sufficiently conservative. On the campaign trail, Donnelly has said his outsider persona and record as a border security hawk liken him to President Trump. Donnelly has focused on wedge issues, painting himself as the more conservative candidate and casting Cook as an anti-Trump centrist, a charge Cook denies."

CA49 (Oceanside): While the parties have largely considered the race over in favor of Democrat Mike Levin, the League of Conversation Voters, with funding from Michael Bloomberg, is spending $780,000 to seal the deal to flip the seat currently held by Darrell Issa (R-Vista).

CA50 (East San Diego County): The first independent expenditure in CA50 has emerged, $100,000 in support of Ammar Campa-Najjar. The expenditure is through PowerPAC and is to the Alliance San Diego Mobilization Fund for a field program.

VOTER REG: Secretary of State Alex Padilla held a presser yesterday to address the Los Angeles Times report that an additional 1,500 voters were inappropriately automatically registered by the DMV, including at least one non-citizen. Mini Racker reports:

"The registration errors might have been caused by the motor voter program, which requires Californians to opt out if they do not want to be registered to vote when they get a driver’s license. Padilla said that a freeze of the program was on the table, and has also called for an independent audit of the DMV’s technology and procedures. . . .

"Upon discovering the mistakes, the secretary of State’s office immediately cancelled the incorrect registrations, and any affected ballots will not be counted on election day. But Padilla said his office is still uncertain as to whether people who were registered incorrectly voted in the primaries."

REAPPORTIONMENT AND REDISTRICTING: The Public Policy Institute of California is out with a new study that looks at the upcoming 2020 census and what it will mean for reapportionment. For those that forget between the ten-year interim, reapportionment is the allocation of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. After that happen, it is up to the states to redistrict, or divide up their apportionment. In California, that is now done by the Citizens Commission. 

I know that's basic for a lot of you, but I still reapportionment and redistricting used interchangeably all the time.

Anyway, the PPIC study provides a strong likelihood that California will remain static at 53 congressional districts. However, if there is a low count with a low-accuracy and immigration-related undercount, the state could drop to 52 seats. In other words, one person would be on the chopping block. Further, undercount in certain communities could result in underrepresentation in the ultimate districts drawn by the Citizens Commission.

The report cites that 1990 resulted in an undercount that would, if repeated, lead to the same worst case they warn about 2020. The report states that the 2010 Census was the was "the most accurate in the nation's history." 

Low-accuracy undercount: PPIC identifies two areas that could lead to a low-accuracy undercount in 2010, and both deal with funding. Like 2010, the first round will be through a survey before human follow-up is pursued. In 2010, the first round was done by mail. The Census Bureau plans to do the first round by Internet in 2020. While that might sound like a no-brainer to many of us, we don't have to think long to also think of the downsides. PPIC cites that the cost-saving Internet collection will likely disadvantage the same communities undercounted using the pencil-and-paper method. (Yes, I said pencil, and many of you said "what's that?" I think the last time I used a pencil was on the bar exam.)

The second is overall underfunding of the Census Bureau, the report states. This affects both the pre-Census education as well as the follow-up budget for those who do not complete the first-round survey.

Immigration-related undercount: While the purpose of the Census is a full enumeration of every person regardless of citizenship status, immigrant groups in the past have been harder to count for a variety of issues. PPIC writes that this has been heightened by the current political environment and the addition of a question of citizenship to the Census. Such a question has not been asked of all participants since 1950. While Census data is treated like IRS data and private to the Bureau, there is still a belief that the question would lead to an increased non-response rate from households with immigrants, with or without legal residency.

While this report is focused on the impact of political representation, Census data is used throughout the federal and state governments for apportionment of many different funding streams that are meant to be aligned with true population, and not "citizen voting age population." While the latter is used to evaluate fairness in election systems, base true population is meant for the underlying district size and funding apportionments.

The addition of the citizenship question is being challenged over procedural issues administrative law.

Not just about 52 or 53, but how the lines are drawn - After the Census is conducted, the Citizens Commission has to draw the specified number of congressional seats, four Board of Equalization districts, forty State Senate districts, and eighty Assembly districts. Meanwhile, counties, cities, and school districts also use the Census data for the accurate drawing of lines. In all of these cases, it's not just an accurate top-line that is essential to be accurate, but in many cases, racial demographics. 

There is a PPIC briefing tomorrow on the report that I plan to attend, so I may have more.

More below the jump . . .

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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FIRE AND DOUGH: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall reports that the company that has been criticized for its response in its federal contract to clean-up after last year's Santa Rosa fire has given significant sums to the California Democratic Party and Gavin Newsom. Rosenhall writes:

"AshBritt, which contracted with the federal government to clean up the disaster, and another company owned by AshBritt chairman Randal Perkins together donated $250,000 to the state Democratic Party on Oct. 4, campaign filings show. Two weeks earlier, AshBritt CEO Brittany Perkins donated $29,200 to Newsom’s campaign, the maximum allowed." 

FIRE AND LIABILITY: CAL FIRE pointed the finger at PG&E yesterday for being responsible for yet another fire, the Yuba County's Cascade Fire last October, due to "sagging" power lines, reports Dale Kasler in The Bee. "The investigation into the Cascade Fire “found no negligence,” said Cal Fire spokesman Mike Mohler in an email." That means that ratepayers are likely on the hook.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Victoria Grajek, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, and Dan Walters!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

  • Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Campaign To Repeal Gas-tax Increase Attacks Spending By Caltrans, Los Angeles Mta
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
The Proposition 6 campaign on Tuesday cited six-figure salaries given to thousands of government transportation workers as among the reasons why California voters should approve the initiative that would repeal fuel tax and vehicle fee increases enacted last year. Less than a month before the Nov...

Senate Democrats Fail To Block Trump's Short-term Health Plans - Politico

The Senate vote ended in a 50-50 tie, falling short of the majority needed to pass the measure reversing new regulations allowing insurers to sell skimpy health plans outside the Obamacare markets for up to a year, rather than the previous limit of three months.

Celebrity Advocates Use Social Media To Influence Which California Bills Become Law
Mini Racker @
latimes.com
As California legislators cast votes in the final hours of this year’s session, celebrities leveraged their fan bases on Facebook and Twitter to encourage lawmakers to pass bills and Gov. Jerry Brown to sign them into law.

Kamala Harris To Make First South Carolina Trip Ahead Of 2020 - Politico

California Sen. Kamala Harris has helped raise or donated more than $6.5 million for Democratic candidates and causes across the country this year. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images