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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.

With 294 participants as of 11:20am, here are a some of the closest projected wins:

IC Ricardo Lara (N) 46.04%
IC Steve Poizner (N) 53.96%

 

CD39 Young Kim (R) 45.38%
CD39 Gil Cisneros (D) 54.62%

 

SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 43.28%
SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 56.72%

 

SD22 Michael Eng (D) 47.30%
SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 52.70%

 

SD34 Tom Umberg (D) 41.35%
SD34 Janet Nguyen (R) 58.65%

 

AD38 Christy Smith (D) 45.26%
AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 54.74%

 

AD72 Tyler Diep (R) 45.02%
AD72 Josh Lowenthal (D) 54.98%

 

I previously announced the awards:

  • First: $100 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Second: $50 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)
  • Third: $25 Amazon card or charitable contribution of your choice (pot in case of tie)

In addition, any Nooner Premium subscriber will have a $25 bonus applied to their prize in thanks for their support.

Here is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove the link since it belongs to you. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

##CONTESTLINK##

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

 

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E-28

DISTRICT UPDATES:

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45), Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and Reps holding in Baker (AD16).

 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/7/2018 has Democrats+7.3. (change from yesterday: D+0.7) 

This includes a new CNN poll of Dems+13 among likely voters, which is certainly an outlier.

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 21.7% D, 78.3% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.3)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.8%, de León 40.2% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein+0.1)
  • House control: 76.1%% D, 23.9% R (Change from yesterday: D+3.1)
  • House seats: 229 D, 206 R (Change from yesterday: D+1)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.0% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.2)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

EAR TICKLER: The "Gimme Shelter" Podcast with CALmatters's Matt Levin and the LAT's Liam Dillon are joined this week with the "LA Podcast" hosts for a cross-over episode "about the connections between housing affordability issues in Los Angeles and the state as a whole." 

SPORTS PAGE:  Well, the Dodgers advance to the National League Championship Series for the third time in the same number of years. They defeated the Atlanta Braves 6-2 yesterday and move on to face the Milwaukee Brewers. Game 1 will be Friday, although a time has not been set. 

THE BIG SCREEN: Highly recommend "A Star is Born," but you've likely heard that by now. 

Election Day is four weeks from today (28 Days--good movie), and ballots will be hitting mailboxes of 65%+ of the voters likely to cast a ballot in November's election beginning today. In Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo counties, every voter who has already registered will receive a ballot in the next couple of days. New voters or any voter that wants to request a vote-by-mail ballot in any county who hasn't yet done so has until October 30 to submit a request.  

Congratulations, Politico, for getting Kevin Yamamura as the DC-based operation's California editor. It's another big loss for the Bee. Kevin's tweet is "Some personal news: I'll be joining @POLITICO as California editor next week after nearly two decades at @sacbee_news. Excited to build a new team in Sacramento. Appreciate all the wonderful opportunities I've had at The Bee, where reporters continue to do amazing work."

It certainly sounds like Politico plans on something much bigger for Sacramento...

GUBER DEBATE: Here is where you can listen to yesterday's connversation hosted by KQED and CapPubRad has a transcript. There wasn't much news broken, with the biggest story being that Republican John Cox went pretty much straight to the elevator while Gavin Newsom held court with media. 

GOV: Phil Willon reports why there is no candidate statement for Gavin Newsom in the statewide ballot pamphlet--he didn't agree to the campaign spending limits required to do so.

The strategery answer--nobody reads those except for the person at the Secretary of State's office who has to count the words. They are worth it for local, non-partisan offices. 

On that note, when you see a campaign advertisement on ballot measures with someone claiming to "read the fine print," that doesn't mean they read the fine print of the measure itself--it means they are reading a script with a quote from ballot arguments. That's why ballot arguments are written. Text isn't mailed out anymore. Most of the arguments on both sides are BS and these are complicated issues. 

BABY, YOU CAN DRIVE MY VOTE (OR NOT): Whoopsies! The DMV yesterday admitted that another 1,500 voters were registered without requesting it, including non-citizens. John Myers reports for the Times "A DMV spokeswoman said a department employee mistakenly changed [Canadian Randall] Marquis’ citizenship information and his eligibility to vote, then correctly updated the information to show he is not a U.S. citizen. But that did not stop the documents from being sent to elections officials, and state records last week identified him as an unaffiliated voter who could cast a ballot in the Nov. 6 election."

"Elections officials canceled the registrations. And though absentee ballots will begin going out this week, they said the bar code on each individual ballot would ensure that no votes would be tallied on election day.

The revelation of additional errors could heighten scrutiny of how DMV and state technology officials rolled out the “new motor voter” system in April, a process by which eligible Californians have to opt out of registering to vote when applying for a new or updated license. In addition to the 23,000 registration errors disclosed last month, the system mistakenly sent out double registration forms for some Californians who had visited the DMV in the spring."

PROP 6 (gas tax repeal/road funding): The proponents of Proposition 6, which repeals the gas tax that funds road construction and other transportation projects, have a mailer that looks like an official change to the ballot title, reports Alexei Koseff for the Bee. "The official ballot title for Proposition 6 — which begins “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding” — has caused much consternation for its supporters," Koseff writes. 

Meanwhile, Byrhonda Lyons and Ben Christopher give their 60-second treatment to Proposition 6 for CALmatters.

"MEMBER COMMUNICATION": For the Times, Taryn Luna writes up how the political parties receive large contributions from ballot measure campaigns to send out costly mailers to their members. This allows the campaigns to hide who is really paying for the communication:

"The California Republican Party spent $5.8 million against two November ballot measures that would expand rent control and limit profits for dialysis clinics after accepting a similar amount of money from business interests."

CA04 (Foothills): Before the gubernatorial debate, Congressman Tom McClintock (R) faced his opponent, Jessica Morse (D) for the district that begins in the Roseville area east of Sacramento, and then stretches through Gold County to Yosemite. Bryan Anderson reports on a testy moment: "When McClintock critiqued Morse’s past comments of “living a vagabond life,” he also took aim at a controversy involving her being denied a “national security consultant” ballot designation. Morse was quick with a comeback: “We’ll get you a sense of humor after we send you home.”

CA48 (Huntington Beach): In the Times, David Willman looks at Congressman Dana Rohrabacher's ties to Russia and hears back from his campaign in writing. "Rohrabacher declined to be interviewed for this article. In written responses to questions, a spokesman, Andrew Eisenberger, noted the lawmaker is chairman of a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that has Russia in its purview. Rohrabacher, he said, has acted in line with his official duties."

CA50 (East San Diego County): The LAT's Robin Abcarian visited the conservative town in Ramona to see how they are handling the congressional race that pits indicted Congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr. against Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar. "I had gone to Ramona expecting to find gung-ho supporters of Hunter and Trump. But the conversations I had were much more nuanced than I expected. Seems like things are starting to change in the 50th."

SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): The California Building Industry Association is part of the coalition spending independently through the Keep California Golden committee in support of Susan Rubio in SD22. Rubio is facing off against fellow Democrat Mike Eng to succeed Ed Hernandez in the seat. BIA kicked in $200,000 yesterday. Eng is strongly backed by labor, while Rubio is seen as more business friendly. Keep California Golden is largely funded by the realtors, new car dealers, Phillip Morris, the prison guards, and charter school advocates.

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Joshua Golka, former assemblymember Eric LinderJackie NuttingMichael SaragosaChristina Spagnoli and Thomas Wong!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Administrative Assistant for Lobby Firm
    Qualifications: Experience working in a governmental affairs office, outstanding communications skills, working knowledge of the legislative process, calendaring and arranging travel, proficient in Microsoft Outlook, Excel and Word. Salary based on experience.

    Send resume to jmccoy@aaronread.com For questions, call Joelle at (916) 448-3444.

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

  • Link to full job description: lh-pa.com/saclegasst.pdf

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Trump Is Still Losing Millions At His Golf Resorts In Scotland
Stephanie Baker @
latimes.com
After sinking more than $196 million into his Scottish golf courses, President Trump has yet to make a profit.

Trump’s Shadow Hangs Over California Governor’s Debate - Politico

Cox, both before and after the debate, appeared reluctant to tie himself to the president on key issues.

Civil Rights Attorneys Settle Lawsuit Accusing Court Of Improperly Suspending Poor People's Driver's Licenses
Alene Tchekmedyian @
latimes.com
The lawsuit centered around Gloria Mata Alvarado, who was hit with a $712 fine for not wearing her seat belt while in the car with her husband. According to the suit, Alvarado and her husband are disabled and living on fixed retirement and disability payments of $1,514 a month. When she explained her situation in court, the judge reduced the fine to $600, the suit said.