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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.

Here are a few of the closest ones as of 9:00 a.m., when there were 152 participants :

IC Ricardo Lara (D) 44.27%
IC Steve Poizner (N) 55.73%

 

SD14 Melissa Hurtado (D) 47.20%
SD14 Andy Vidak (R) 52.80%

 

SD22 Michael Eng (D) 49.19%
SD22 Susan Rubio (D) 50.81%

 

AD38 Christy Smith (D) 45.83%
AD38 Dante Acosta (R) 54.17%

 

This is the sixth time I've done a contest such as this and I never know what to expect. It's open to the current 8,800 Nooner subscribers. There is a certain universe that are into the micro-politics of it all and that's generally who participates in the contest. I limit it to subscribers not because I try to expand the subscription list, but rather that's the way I know that minimizes gaming of it since I use the automatically generated unique ID. Sure, people can have multiple email addresses, but we're not talking Russian BOTs here. 

Anyway, the test of gaming is in the results, and to be honest, the current "Wisdom of the Crowd" is pretty much what those closest to the day-to-day would expect. The final scoring will determine who comes out on top!

Below is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove this block. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

##CONTESTLINK##

 

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E-29

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA22 (Tulare): changed from Leans Republican to Likely Republican
  • CA50 (East San Diego): changed from Leans Republican to Toss-up 
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers]
  • AD74 (Irvine): changed from Leans Republican to Toss-up
  • AD74 (Irvine): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers]

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45), Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and Reps holding in Baker (AD16).

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/4/2018 has Democrats+6.6. (change from yesterday: no change) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 21.4% D, 78.6% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.5)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 73.6%% D, 26.4% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • House seats: 228 D, 207 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +7.8% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

SPORTS PAGE:  Dodgers dropped game 3 in Atlanta last night 6-5, and will face the Braves for game 4 today at 1:30 pm PDT. 

BALLOTING HAS BEGUN

Happy Monday to you! While vote-by-mail ballots won't go out until tomorrow since today is a federal holiday, some county offices are allowing voting today for eager beavers. Call first. Don't do it if you are a permanent VBM or in a Voter's Choice Act county (Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, San Mateo), as your ballot has already been packaged in pre-sort mail for drop-off tomorrow when USPS is open or was dropped at the bulk mail center over the weekend.

The state and schools previously swapped out Columbus Day for Cesar Chavez Day (March 31), when the latter was created as a state holiday. Today is a holiday for state and federal courts, while Cesar Chavez Day is a holiday for state courts only. Figure that all out. 

Yes, I do plan to have a "Legislator of the Year" survey with various categories after Election Day. One thing at a time.

GOV: For CapPubRad, Ben Adler writes up what to look at/listen for in today's gubernatorial debate.

LITE GOV: For the Chron, Melody Gutierrez reports that the candidates for lieutenant governor have ambitious plans for the position should they be elected to it. Of course, so did Gavin. On last week's KQED's Political Breakdown Podcast with Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos, the now-gubernatorial candidate acknowledged that he overstepped his role when he released an ambitious economic plan while the governor was wrestling with a $26 billion budget shortfall.

To be honest, I haven't spent much time thinking about it in the past, but I now think we should amend the constitution and have a ticket system of governor-lieutenant governor. In the era of top two, a "running mate" would add one clear decision by the top of the ticket, rather than just a series of campaign promises. The lieutenant governor would keep the positions on the various boards and commissions, but would likely also be involved in critical meetings with the governor. 

While no lieutenant governor in recent memory has abused his power of being "acting governor" when the governor is out of state, it's still a nonsensical system to hand the keys to the Tesla to the 16-year-old because you're going on a business trip. No, I'm not suggesting that my friend Gavin or either of the two candidates next month are 16-year-olds, but you get the analogy.

The things we find on the Interweb. I typed in "the original california constitution" to Google this morning. The first item on the "People also ask" under the top result was "Does California have a Constitution?" Uh, yes, read your ballot pamphlet. Prop. 5 and Prop. 6 are both constitutional amendments.

Anyway, voters are not paying attention to the race for lieutenant governor. When I talk to the regular Joe (read: my dad Roy), he asks me about the ballot measures, but as a moderate Orange County Republican, he would have no idea in a Hernandez-Kounalakis race (and he didn't ask me about that). I don't know about OC, but I haven't received a sample ballot yet and my actual ballot will likely be here Thursday. I haven't received any mail on the lite gov race nor seen any commercials, and I can recite ballot measure commercials word-for-word. 

In the era of top-two, it's time to unite the governor and lieutenant governor as a ticket. We all know that, unless an Arnold Schwarzenegger comes along amidst a catastrophe of rolling blackouts, the GOP is extremely unlikely to have a serious chance at the top office any time soon. Let's put the onus on candidates for governor to make that first choice--a running mate--and actually empower the governor to have a right-hand woman or man, instead of just a stopping off place for a future run for governor.

PROP 10 (rent control): Both sides on the ballot measure to allow cities pre-empted from local rental control ordinances under Costa-Hawkins are being deceptive in their campaigns, writes Angela Hart in the Sacramento Bee. SHOCKING, I TELL YOU! Hart concludes "It is true that the initiative, if passed, would give local communities broad authority to pass rent control. If they choose to, cities would be allowed to determine how best to craft local ordinances."

Meanwhile, George Skelton sides with the opponents of the initiative, writing "My view: I’m wary of government controlling prices charged by private enterprise. That’s fine for energy utilities because they’re allowed monopolies. But housing is a wide-open market." 

Classifieds below:

      • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
      • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
      • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
      • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
      • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
      • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
      • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
      • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
      • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
      • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Syrus Devers, Michael Kapp, Josh Kurpies, Rachael O'Brien, and Tammy Paster!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: drive.google.com/open?id=17CJ2zGPbUL6TBLrj12rvQ5AqeiAfSqj7

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
With The Midterm Election Looming, Calls To Impeach Kavanaugh Pose An Awkward Challenge For Democrats
Laura King @
latimes.com
After bruising confirmation battle, Democratic leaders don't want the midterm campaigns to turn on whether to impeach Justice Kavanaugh. But impeachment calls from some on the left may make it hard to keep an explosive and divisive question out of midterm campaign.

Brazilâ
ASSOCIATED PRESS @

A far-right former army captain who expresses nostalgia for Brazil’s military dictatorship took a strong lead in its presidential election Sunday.

Nobel Prize In Economics Awarded To Two American Researchers For Their Studies In Climate Change And Innovation
Associated Press @
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Two American researchers have been awarded the Nobel Prize for economics for studying the interplay of climate change and technological innovation with economics.

Taylor Swift Shakes Off Political Silence, Endorses Tennessee Democrats - Politico

In a post to Instagram, Taylor Swift told her followers that she intends to vote for Democrat Phil Bredesen, who is running to replace GOP Sen. Bob Corker. | Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP/Getty Images