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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE NOONER NOVEMBER 2018 ELECTION CONTEST

Thus far, 108 Nooner readers have made picks. Here are the current tallies of the picks participants. These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. The page is updated live as participants join and make picks.

As I write (6am), the SD22 race was literally 50%-50% among readers in the big Dem-on-Dem fight and just moved to 48.35% picking labor-backed Mike Eng and 51.65% picking "more business friendly" Susan Rubio. I couldn't believe the 50-50 number but verified it in the database. As usual, lots of participants make there picks in chunks--starting with the constitutional officers and highest profile congressional races and come back later to complete their scorecards. For example, 89 participants have made a pick in SD22, and of course those can change their picks.

Below is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove this block. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

##CONTESTLINK##

 

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E-30

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • Lots going on as discussed below. Still working on updating analyses for Nooner Premium subscribers! Hopefully by tonight I'll have several done.

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45), Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and long-shot for Dems in Baker (AD16).

 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/23-10/4/2018 has Democrats+6.6. (change from yesterday D-0.6) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 22.1% D, 77.9% R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 73.7%% D, 26.3% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • House seats: 228 D, 207 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +7.8% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

SPORTS PAGE:  Bad, bad day for the PAC-12 teams from California! The UC Davis Aggies won at Northern Colorado, while the Sac State Hornets fell to Cal Poly. Today, Raiders are at Chargers with a 1:05 kickoff (CBS) and the Niners host Arizona at 1:25 (FOX). The Rams, which along with only Kansas City are undefeated, visit the Seahawks at 1:25. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are in Atlanta for game 3 with a 5:07 PDT first pitch. 

Well, happy Sunday to you! Another beautiful and crazy morning at The Nooner Global Headquarters. 

GRAYING CALIFORNIA: In her excellent series in the Los Angeles Times, Melanie Mason writes that California's senior population is growing faster than any other age group and what issues that will put on the next governor's plate.

COLLATERAL EFFECT: John Myers uses his Sunday LAT column to look at the possible effect on state legislative seats of the state's hot congressional races. If you read yesterday, I wrote about the possible impact on Assemblymember Matthew Harper (R-Huntington Beach) because of the race between challenger Katie Porter and Congresswoman Mimi Walters for CA45 (Irvine).

Here are the possible legislative seats that could be in play that, in an ordinary year, likely would not be:

  • CA10 --> SD12 (Salinas-Merced)
  • CA21/CA22 --> SD14 (Fresno-Bakersfield)
  • CA25 --> AD38 (Santa Clarita)
  • CA39 --> AD55 (Yorba Linda)
  • CA45 --> AD72 (Seal Beach) and AD74 (Irvine)
  • CA49 --> SD36 (Carlsbad) --> this one is buoyed because the southern half is AD76, which has a "mainstream" Democrat against "Berniecrat" general 

Add in that in SD12 and SD14, you have Democratic Latinas running against white men, which in this political environment must be considered if there is a blue-wave with a bigger-than-usual gender differential. Also, in AD74 has a white woman against a white man. I know that some of you don't like me talking about those aspects, but they are political facts, and some of you pay me for that perspective. In many cases, Democrats would prefer I shut up as they sneak in for the win rather than give a nudge for GOP supporters. Candidates in these races know these dynamics well.

Yes, I probably should have had AD55 and SD36 in the contest.

CA50 (East San Diego County) is to the east of the competitive AD77 (North San Diego), which is in Scott Peters's CA52. However, AD77 is still a race to watch. It's a Clinton +16.3 and is a female (Sunday Glover) against incumbent male (Brian Maienschein) election. It's still a lean Rep, as Maienschein has a pretty good reputation across the aisle from his time representing much of the district on the San Diego City Council.

Has your head exploded yet? Mine certainly has. Those of us who have been around long enough miss the 1991 (constitutionally unfair) and previous redistrictings, which had "nested" districts. Each Senate district was made up of two Assembly districts. Now, we geeks have to constantly refer to maps.

Because of the national political dynamics and changes in voting systems, this is the wildest election I've seen.

Meanwhile, voter registrations continue to roll in and we won't see an official report that updates the September 7 report until a few days before the election. While the deadline for paper/online/DMV registrations is October 22, any eligible would-be voter can "conditionally register" and cast a provisional ballot through Election Day. In the five Voter's Choice counties (Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento, and San Mateo), that can be done at any of the designated "Vote Centers" within the voter's county. In other counties, it generally needs to be done at the county registrar.

This means that campaigns in these hot races literally will be courting new voters up until Election Day. There is no longer an absolutely defined universe that campaigns will focus on. It also means that we may not have results for hot races for up to a few weeks.

None of the Voter's Choice counties cover the super-contested races.

GOV: Tomorrow at 10am is the lone gubernatorial debate, and the candidates need not worry about outfits or make-up. It will be aired/streamed by San Francisco-based public radio station KQED. The LAT's Phil Willon reports on the face-off, which will be moderated by the great Scott Shafer and is billed as a "conversation." KQED's Guy Marzorati writes up what to look for in the conversation, which is on during the second hour of the station's Forum program.

WHAT WE REALLY WANT TO KNOW: Gavin and John, will you be wearing pants beneath the desk?

PROP 10 (rent control expansion): For the Times, Emily Alpert Reyes dissects the impact of rent control on Airbnb-type rentals. Rent control arguably limits the ability to rent out units at market rates under the Airbnb platform when they are out of town. Los Angeles just lifted rent control in one building and there is a fierce debate about the impact on tenants.

CA22 (Tulare): For KQED, Alexandra Hall looks at the ongoing war against the Fresno Bee by Congressman Devin Nunes (R-Hanford):

"This week, some residents in Republican Rep. Devin Nunes' Central Valley district received a piece of political campaign mail that was unlike your typical mailer asking for donations. It's a 38-page, full-size color magazine titled “The Fresno Bees: The dirty little secrets of the Valley’s propaganda machine.”

CA49 (Oceanside): In the SDUT, columnist Michael Smolens writes up the impact of the Kavanaugh confirmation on House races, particularly the race to fill Darrell Issa's (R-Vista) congressional seat. Notably, Smolens writes:

One thing seems clear: Republicans are doubling down with appeals to keep their base fired up, perhaps at the expense of alienating moderate voters. Maybe that was the plan to begin with, but the confirmation fight certainly gave the effort more focus.

This is happening not only in red-state Senate races, but in critical House districts. Late last week, President Donald Trump’s campaign organization put out a statement of support for Diane Harkey, the Republican running in the contentious 49th district, which stretches up the north San Diego County coast into southern Orange County.

Harkey is down fourteen points in the LAT/Berkeley IGS poll and the national money is not heading there to support her. This morning, the GOP's main SuperPAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund dumped $841.5k in CA10, $263k in CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale), $74k in CA39 (Fullerton), $338k more in CA45 (Irvine), $49k in CA48--nothing for CA49.

In the poll, President Trump has a 39% approval rating in the district. Unlike the NYT/Siena live polls (which didn't occur in CA49), we don't know the geography of support.

The southern part of the district is more Dem/independent, while the northern is more Republican and that's where Harkey is from. It would be interesting to see if the issue of offshore oil drilling pushed by President Trump is hurting her among her neighbors in Dana Point, even though she opposes it and the state has taken new action to try to block the President's plans.

Offshore oil drilling in California is literally a multi-million dollar issue of home valuation for individual voters in Dana Point and San Clemente, where ocean-view homes run into the tens of millions of dollars. They think Trump and a GOP House and know that she could, well, be swept under the tide of a hard push by POTUS. 

If that is a major factor that ends Harkey's hopes of going to DC, it could also increase the likelihood that Senate Republican Leader Pat Bates loses re-election in SD36, as discussed above. Bates voted for the bills against expansion of drilling on state offshore lands but, when voters get very crabby an issue, they get turn into crustaceans.

In the very non-scientific Nooner election contest, as of this writing, 81.32% forecast a Mike Levin (D) win in the district. And, the respondents don't seem to have a strong left lean. The same participants overwhelmingly pick Nunes, Valadao, and Hunter to all survive re-election. 

 

More after the jump... 

 

Classifieds below:

      • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
      • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
      • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
      • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
      • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
      • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
      • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
      • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
      • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
      • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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EDUCATION MATTERS: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes that the education achievement gap persists and, either significantly more money is needed as called for in a recent report (which would be opposed by many taxpayers and social services advocates), or major other changes must be sought. 

HIGH-$$$ CHOO-CHOO: For the LA Daily News, Elizabeth Chou reports on the opposition of some San Fernando Valley residents of proposed routes of high-speed rail.

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Anna Molander!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Yes, I admit that the Nooner Premium edition yesterday had Cox winning Newsom's percentage in The Nooner Contest. Heck, it was Saturday, and that's just how my brain was rollin' at 6am. 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: drive.google.com/open?id=17CJ2zGPbUL6TBLrj12rvQ5AqeiAfSqj7

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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