If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

THE 2018 NOONER GENERAL ELECTION CONTEST

Good morning! In the first twelve hours, 65 Nooner readers had made picks.

Looking through the totals, here's where we are at:

  • Overwhelmingly, users believe Feinstein (92%) and Newsom (96.8%) will win.
  • A significant majority believe Eleni (72.1%) will be the next lieutenant governor.
  • 65% believe Thurmond will win SPI.
  • For insurance commissioner, 60% believe Poizner will win.
  • Congress: CA04: McClintock (81.8%); CA07: Bera (96.2%); CA10: Harder (59.2%); CA21: Valadao (56.6%); CA22: Nunes (83.3%) CA25: Hill (79.2%); CA39: Cisneros (54.7%); CA45: Porter (71.7%); CA48: Rouda (71.7%); CA49: Levin (81.1%); CA50: Hunter (81.1%)

These are all percentages of participants who predict the candidate will win, of course not how much they will win by. Almost all of these will be close races. Anyway, I hope to have the "Wisdom of the Crowd" script finished later today so you can see all the percentages.  

Below is your unique link. If you forward this message, remove this block. New Nooner email subscribers (paid or unpaid) will be get their own link between now and the contest close.

You can come back to change your picks any time up to 12pm on Election Day--November 6.

Only the top 25 participants will be shown, but the individual race answers will not be listed. As I've done in the past, I will have a "Wisdom of the Crowds" page showing the percentages of each of the answers after there is a sufficient sample size of participants. 

##CONTESTLINK##

 

advertisement

We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space

 

E-31

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA49 (Oceanside): changed from Leans Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • AD74 (Irvine): borderline between Leans Republican and Toss-up, but keeping it Leans Rep. for now. See discussion below.

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 44 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners/likelies -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45), Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, with guaranteed pick-up AD76 Chávez/Open seat
      likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40)
      - tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60)
      - tough holds for Reps in Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72), Harper AD74 and long-shot for Dems in Baker (AD16).

 

advertisement

Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/16-10/4/2018 has Democrats+7.2. (change from yesterday D-0.5) 

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 22.1% D, 77.9% R (Change from yesterday: R+1.3)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 73.6%% D, 26.4% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.4)
  • House seats: 228 D, 207 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +7.8% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

SPORTS PAGE: Kershaw was outstanding for the Dodgers last night, who prevailed 3-0 over the Braves. They face-off in game 3 tomorrow in Atlanta at 5:07 PDT. In college football, Washington is at UCLA at 4:30 (FOX); Cal is at Arizona at 7:00 (FS1); Utes visit Stanford at 7:30 (ESPN).

By the way, FS1, screw you for interrupting baseball with spine-tingling candy commercial last night.

Happy Saturday to you all! Paid subscribers, I'm going to work on updated analyses this afternoon/tonight. These have been exhausting twelve-hour days--much of it on data and programming--and I know I am behind. Thank you for your support!

EAR TICKLERS: On the California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Melanie Mason chat about the competitive congressional races poll results released this week and some of the bills acted on by the governor by the September 30 deadline.

U.S. SENATE: Yesterday, we saw the profile of Kevin de León on CALmatters; today we get a write-up on Dianne Feinstein by Marc Sandelow.

PROP. POLL POSITION: On Thursday, we discussed the congressional polling results from LATimes/Berkeley IGS in eight key congressional districts. In those districts, two ballot measures were also tested. These are essentially six relative toss-ups and Republican-favored districts. All are currently held by Republicans.

Here are the average results from the eight districts, with official ballot title and summary:

  • Proposition 6 (gas tax repeal): Yes: 35.3%, No: 38.9%, Don't know: 25.9%
  • Proposition 10 (expansion of rent control): Yes: 24.3%, No: 39%, Don't know: 36.8%

Again, this is only eight districts, but this largely mirrors statewide polling. Generally speaking, any ballot measure with significant opposition needs to be well above 50% at this point, as uncertain voters will break "no." With nearly 5 million voters receiving ballots this week, both Proposition 6 and 10 are almost certainly going down, and opponents are still sitting on plenty of cash for the no side.

PROP 8 (kidney dialysis clinic regulation): For California Healthline, David Tuller and Harriet Rowan write up the complicated and expensive fight over regulation of kidney dialysis clinics.

CA10 (Stanislaus): For the ModBee, Garth Stapely looks at the status of the Denham v. Harder race, one of the hottest in the country.

CA50 (East San Diego County): The AP's Julie Watson reports on the race of indicted Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine) against newcomer Ammar Campa-Najjar (D-San Diego). Hunter "has spent as much on legal fees as his re-election campaign while splitting time between meeting voters and fighting corruption charges."

It's become a bare-knuckles affair with Hunter's campaign running an ad saying his San Diego-born opponent, Ammar Campa-Najjar, changed his name to "hide his family's ties to terrorism" and now wants to "infiltrate" Congress. Campa-Najjar responded by saying Hunter has lost his grip on reality.

Even with the 47-page indictment detailing alleged misuse of hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign funds, Hunter is the favorite. Republicans hold a nearly 15-point registration edge in the district, where many military veterans identify with Hunter's service as a Marine in Iraq.

As noted above, only 18.9% of Nooner Contest participants thus far pick Campa-Najjar. The LAT/Berkeley IGS poll released Thursday has Campa-Najjar down 2 points to Hunter. There is a lot of time--31 days--left on the clock. The poll was conducted before the unsavory CLF ad (which has been pulled) and before Kavanaugh. 

On my contest sheet, I currently have Hunter picked, but that could change. In this political environment, it is only half-time with both teams biting their nails in the locker room. 

AD32 (Kings): The Western Growers Association yesterday reported adding $100,000 to its IE committee to oppose Assemblymember Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield).

AD74 (Irvine): I still have AD74 as Leans Republican, but my friend Matthew Harper is at big risk under the Kavanaugh issue like Mimi Walters if there is a large late registration/re-registration drive at UC Irvine or a shift of NPP voters from the campus. Historically, the campus of 32,400 students and 11,000 staff (faculty and non-teaching staff) has been one of the least political UC campuses, and resides in the most conservative areas of any UC campus. Students have often kept their registrations of their hometowns rather than re-registering at their school address.

However, with the CA45 race that has UCI law professor Katie Porter running against incumbent Walters with huge expenditures by both parties, combined with the Kavanaugh situation, that may be changing among the Anteaters. 

Already between September 2014 and September 2018, the Republican advantage over Democrats has shrunk from R+12.43% to R+6.2%. Meanwhile, NPP registration has increased by 3.14% of the overall district share. So, that's D: 30.71%, R: 36.91%, and NPP: 27.83%. That's D: 82,207, R: 98,806, with 74,489 NPP voters.

Watch the NPP number, as we know that young people are more likely to register. In Orange County, pre-registrations of 16- and 17-year olds through September 7 was 3,718 among those registration with the Democratic and Republican parties COMBINED. Meanwhile, 5,148 pre-registered as No Party Preference. Not good news for the parties.

We won't see the 15-day registration report until a few days before Election Day, based on prior precedent. But, I'm sure Paul Mitchell will be putting our data on CA_120 Twitter feed.

BTW...In CA45, 260,665 voters are permanent vote-by-mail, or 64.7% of registered voters. 79,990 are Dems, 97,714 are Reps, and 72,617 are NPP. They will have ballots by Wednesday-Thursday. They'll be voting passionately on Kavanaugh. Where the NPP voters go is the question.

In AD74, 176,036 ballots will be mailed Tuesday, according the Orange County Registrar.

In Irvine, 78,465 VBMs will be mailed on Tuesday. Breakdown is 28,196 Dem, 20,913 Rep, 26,584 NPP, and then third parties.

This is a HUGE weekend.

PARTY ON, EXCELLENT! As part of large hauls by the California Democratic Party and California Republican Party yesterday Assemblymember Jim Frazier sent $269,500 to the Dems, and The Irvine Company sent $625,000 to the GOP.

Bohemian Rhapsody is in theatres on Thursday, November 1. Who will be singing "We Are the Champions" on November 6? 

 

Classifieds below:

      • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
      • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
      • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
      • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
      • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
      • Lighthouse Public Affairs: Legislative Assistant (Sacramento)
      • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
      • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
      • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
      • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
      • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

advertisement


The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for Samantha Corbin, Duncan McFetridge, David Pruitt, and Eric Zell!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Lighthouse Public Affairs, Sacramento seeks FT Legislative Assistant to provide scheduling, technical and legislative support in fast-paced, collaborative environment. Salary range $40-50k w/benefits. Open until filled. Send resume and cover letter to sosan@lh-pa.com.

    Link to full job description: drive.google.com/open?id=17CJ2zGPbUL6TBLrj12rvQ5AqeiAfSqj7

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu.
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM