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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/16-10/2/2018 has Democrats+7.7. (change from yesterday D+0.5)
For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4.
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:
SPORTS PAGE: Well A's, it was fun while it lasted. The Dodgers host Atlanta at 5:37pm on FS1, following the Rockies at Milwaukee at 2:07. Dodgers are starting Hyun-jin Ryu on the mound.
Happy National Taco Day. That's just wrong. National Taco Day is every Sunday for street tacos at Our Lady of Guadalupe.
POLL POSITION: Overnight (literally at 3am), the Los Angeles Times and Berkeley IGS released poll results on 8 California congressional races we're all watching carefully, reports David Lauter. Lauter writes up the methodology used.
CA25 (Santa Clarita/Palmdale):
CA48 (Huntington Beach):
CA50 (East San Diego County):
* = incumbent
[n=5,090 likely voters, online w/email invite, September 16-23. "The number of likely voters in each district varies from 912 in the 22nd district to 519 in the 45th. The margin of error ranges from roughly 4 to 6 percentage points in either direction.]
What's striking to me how close these races, with the exception of Mike Levin (D) in CA49. Another is how close Ammar Campa-Najjar has gotten to Congressman Duncan Hunter (R), and was before Hunter's stupid attack ad against Campa-Najjar discussed below.
We can debate methodology with any poll, but the numbers largely confirm the NYT/Siena College results in "live polling" last week.
The polling was conducted before the controversial Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court confirmation hearing. Fight Back California is out with polling suggesting it's a volatile issue in the Orange County races.
Women overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidates for U.S. House
CONGRE$$$: In the Times, Maya Sweedler reports on the big fundraising hauls by Democratic challengers in some of the competitive congressional races.
Andrew Janz, a Fresno County prosecutor challenging incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare) in California’s 22nd Congressional District, revealed Wednesday that his campaign brought in $4.3 million last quarter. He entered the quarter with $1.1 million in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Nunes, an eight-term incumbent who has consistently polled ahead of Janz, entered the quarter with more than $6 million on hand.
In the 10th District, Josh Harder’s campaign announced it raised $3.5 million between July and September. The single-quarter haul is more than any congressional candidate in the Central Valley district has raised in an entire two-year cycle, his campaign said. Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Turlock), who is trying to fend off the former venture capitalist’s challenge, has not released fundraising numbers for the past quarter ahead of the filing deadline, but his campaign had $2.4 million on hand as of June 30. FEC filings for the most recent quarter are due on Oct. 15.
In the battle to replace retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), environmental attorney Mike Levin raised $2.2 million over the summer, almost doubling the amount he raised in the 15 months prior. He is facing Republican Diane Harkey, chairwoman of the State Board of Equalization, in the competition for the 49th District covering northern San Diego and southern Orange counties.
VOTER REG DAY: The Secretary of State's Office reports that 95,872 Californians newly registered or updated their voter registration through the state’s online voter registration portal RegisterToVote.ca.gov on the Sept. 25 National Voter Registration Day. Of those, 22,780 are new registrations and 73,092 are updates to registrations. Those are in addition to yesterday's Report of Registration as of September 7. There are 1,451,713 more registered voters than there were at the same point during the previous Gubernatorial Election cycle in 2014.
From Paul Mitchell: "Some of this incredible growth in new and re-registrations is coming in the state’s most competitive congressional districts. Two in particular – the 39th district with Young Kim (R) facing Gil Cisneros (D), and the 45th district with Mimi Walters (R) vs. Katie Porter (D) — have seen a tripling of total registrations and nine-fold increases in re-registration compared to 2014."
Wow. Just wow.
U.S. SENATE: It is still unclear whether we get a debate between Dianne Feinstein (D) and Kevin de León (D). She hasn't debated since the 2000 race against former congressman Tom Campbell in a debate hosted by KRON-TV.
BACK-UP PLAN: de León yesterday opened a committee for lieutenant governor in 2026.
INSURANCE COMMISH: State Senator Ricardo Lara (D) debated Businessman/Non-Profit Director Steve Poizner on KQED's Forum yesterday.
CA39 (Fullerton): In the super competitive race to succeed retiring Ed Royce, the SuperPAC airing the ads accusing Gil Cisneros has dropped the ad after the woman recanted her sexual harassment case, reports Jordan Graham in the Register.
Speaking of Fullerton, former Vice President Joe Biden is in Fullerton to rally the troops in support of the county's congressional candidates. Ballots will be arriving in mailboxes mid-next week. Orange County is not a Voters Choice Act county.
CA50 (East San Diego County): Congressman Duncan Hunter is up with an ad suggesting Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) is a secret Muslim. He is a Christian. By the end of the day, 70 current and former foreign affairs and national security experts condemned the ad in a letter, reports Maya Sweedler in the Times.
AD60 (Corona): Prosecutor Bill Essayli yesterday picked up $100,000 from Republican Party of Orange County landromat for his run against Assemblymember Sabrina Cervantes (D). The GOP has been one of the key committees collecting money from around the state to pass on to competitive races. It also passed along $77,000 to Rob Poythress in SD12.
PROP 6 (gas tax repeal): In the Chron, John Wildermuth reports that the GOP spent a lot money qualifying the gas tax repeal, but largely abandoned it down the campaign stretch. Of course, as I've written, many just saw it as a political tool to improve turnout and are fine with the law staying put as road projects get underway in their districts.
Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti joined business and labor leaders yesterday to call for rejection of the measure, reports Laura J. Nelson in the Times. Joel Fox writes that the measure is in trouble with staggering opposition. Meanwhile, Joe Rodota and Matt Klink have updated their endorsement scorecard of the ballot measures.
SB 822 (Wiener): While the broadband industry has joined the federal Department of Justice lawsuit to block California's net neutrality bill, backers of the law are vowing to fight back. Fight for the Future has launched a website for a national expansion. The nonprofit is supported by big foundations and tech interests. As I've written about before, AT&T, Verizon and Comcast spent heavily against and used a suspicious astroturf campaign that had lots of opposition reflected in legislative analysis, apparently without permission.
Many of these organizations were also listed in the SB 901 as supporting bill to allow PG&E to recoup wildfire costs and have questioned how they got listed. In particular,
The SB 822 analysis is really a remarkable document to read. It lists that the Senate Floor Analysis support and opposition was verified on August 29, the day before it got final passage in both houses. Lots of small minority chambers of commerce and small civic organizations. I don't know how legislative staff could contact a couple of hundred organizations in the last week of the frenetic legislative session. The support list is similarly lengthy.
AT&T has lots of lobbyists, so it is unclear who is responsible.
The LAT's Maura Dolan looks at the case and a unrelated showdown in the D.C. Circuit that challenges the Federal Communications Commission's administrative process in banning net neutrality. The California case is in the Eastern District, located in Sacramento.
FROM THE DESK OF THE DEAN: George Skelton looks at some of the fun Jerry Brown had in his veto messages in his final year as governor.
FROM DAN'S DESK: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes on two election-related bills acted on by the governor--one signed and one vetoed. One was the measure to ban initiative, referendum, and recall campaigns from using paid signature gatherers, which he vetoed. The other one signed is a measure to allow the Davis Joint Unified School District to exempt teachers another school employees from a parcel tax, if approved by voters.
DOUBLE-X FACTOR: For KQED, Katie Orr reports how women of color are hoping to exercise their political power this November.
WATER: The Bee's Kate Irby writes up Congressman Jeff Denham (R-Turlock) attempt to block a reservoir in his district that would divert water to the ocean to help salmon populations:
Denham first tried to include a provision in a congressional budget bill in July that would prevent a federal reservoir, called New Melones, from using federal dollars to participate in the plan, which would direct greater amounts of water out of his district’s water resources and into the ocean, purportedly to help salmon populations.
The California Republican’s provision was successfully attached to a House bill, but blocked in the Senate version mainly by Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California.
DON'T MESS WITH THE GRIZZLY: For Capital Public Radio, Chris Nichols fact checks Texas senator Ted Cruz's contention that California is "hemorrhaging" people to Texas. "Cruz argued challenger [Beto] O’Rourke offers Texas a future with higher taxes similar to California."
"About five million people moved to California from other states, while about six million left the state from 2007 to 2016, according to the LAO report, which cited data from the American Community Survey."
LA-LA LAND: LA County Sheriff's deputies have been cruising I-5 over the Grapevine looking for drug traffickers. Unturnately, two thirds of the drivers pulled over are Latino, report Joel Rubin and Ben Poston in the Times.
More than two-thirds of the drivers pulled over by the Domestic Highway Enforcement Team were Latino, according to a Times analysis of Sheriff’s Department data. And sheriff’s deputies searched the vehicles of more than 3,500 drivers who turned out to have no drugs or other illegal items, the analysis found. The overwhelming majority of those were Latino.
Several of the team’s big drug busts have been dismissed in federal court as the credibility of some deputies came under fire and judges ruled that deputies violated the rights of motorists by conducting unconstitutional searches.
RECYCLING: Also in CapPubRad, Bob Moffitt writes that what you're recycling is often not actually used.
Sat, Oct 6, 2018
Fans of political Americana, pinback button collectors, and pop culture enthusiasts will be out in full force at this robust memorabilia show in Southern California. Thousands of buttons, posters, ribbons, badges, and other items – covering presidential campaigns, statewide politics, advertising, sports, movies and TV, woman’s suffrage, protest and cause-related, and pop culture themes – will be available to buy, sell or trade.
Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing firstname.lastname@example.org for $40/week.
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Garcetti Urges Voters To Reject Proposition 6, Which Would Repeal California's New Gas Tax
Laura J. Nelson @ latimes.com
At a news conference near LAX, Mayor Eric Garcetti told voters that repealing the gas tax could jeopardize dozens of paving, transit and highway projects underway in Los Angeles County.
Ex-democratic Staffer Charged With Posting Senators’ Private Info - Politico
The information was posted during an extraordinary hearing in which Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford testified in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. | John Shinkle/POLITICO
Suit To Block California's Net Neutrality Law Could Be Overshadowed By Broader Challenge In D.C. Circuit
Maura Dolan @ latimes.com
A lawsuit by the Trump administration to block California's new net neutrality law could be put on hold until a U.S. appeals court decides whether the federal government acted legally in ending internet regulation.
Senate Polls: GOP Leads In North Dakota, 4 Other Races Close - Politico
Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer has a double digit lead over Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in the North Dakota poll, with 53 percent of likely voters picking the Republican and 41 percent supporting the Democrat. | Mark Wilson/Getty Images