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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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We Stand With Seniors

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DISTRICT UPDATE:

  • SD14 (Bakersfield-Fresno): Changed from Likely Republican to Leans Republican 

E-34

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 9 Republicans
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45), Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/16-9/230/2018 has Democrats+7.4. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 27.6% D, 72.4% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.1)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 76.5%% D, 22.9% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.2)
  • House seats: 229 D, 206 R (Change from yesterday: D-1)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.1% D (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 6 Republicans, 1 toss-up (Change from yesterday: R-1)

 

Happy Humpday! Is this the longest week in American politics? The Senate procedurally can't vote until Friday under cloture rules. This afternoon will be the test of the Presidential Alert System to cell phones. Actually, you have already gotten it since it's supposed to start at 2:18pm EDT and last for 30 minutes.

Because, that's what we need this week. Just don't panic if you get the message while catching Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9. 

VOTER REG: Paul Mitchell has a piece in Capitol Weekly on the latest voter registration data, which shows a spike in No Party Preference registrations. He writes: 

"In a series of changes—most notably the way that voter sign-ups are done at the Department of Motor Vehicles—California has entered an era of nearly automatic voter registration.

This system is already having an impact on our state voter file. The most recent county-level records from Political Data Inc. show a spike in registrations that is on pace to be greater than any prior gubernatorial election cycle."

We're now six days from when voting begins in the five Voter's Choice Act counties.

#METOO: For CALmatters, Laurel Rosenhall wraps the session on sexual harassment, writing that Governor Brown paddled on the left, along with on the right--using the famous legislative adage. "He sided with victims’ advocates in some cases, signing bills that put California at the forefront of clamping down on harassment. In other cases he sided with employers, vetoing bills they said were too onerous."

PROP 10 (rent control): In the Times, Liam Dillon and Chris Megerian write up the arguments for and against the rent control expansion ballot measure.

SAN BERDON'T: In the San Bernardino Sun, Scott Schweibke and Roxana Kopetman report on the awful conditions at a privately run Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in San Bernardino. The headline speaks volumes: "Makeshift nooses among problems found at San Bernardino County immigration detention center struggling with suicide attempts."

AG: The Bee's Angela Hart looks at the cost of Attorney General Xavier Becerra's war against The White House. 

"California has filed 44 lawsuits against the Trump administration in the past 21 months, with major battles on health care, immigration and energy policy. The federal government, meanwhile, has filed three suits against California. The price tag for the California vs. Trump war was $9.2 million for the 2017-2018 fiscal year ending June 30, up from $2.8 million the previous year — which included six months of the president’s first year in office. 

The total federal workload for attorneys, expert analysis and other legal costs represented a little more than 1 percent of the total $894 million Department of Justice budget, up from a third of a percent the previous year."

CA39 (Fullerton): Woman who accused Democratic House candidate of harassment says it was a 'misunderstanding' [Christine Mai-Duc @ LAT] - "A woman recanted her allegation of sexual harassment against a Democratic House candidate on Monday, blunting a major line of attack that a conservative super PAC had been using against Gil Cisneros in a key California race."

SD14 (Fresno-Bakersfield): Melissa Hurtado  picked up $100,000 from the landromat from the San Mateo County Democratic Central Committee for race against Senator Andy Vidak (R). The IE committee for Mike Eng in SD22 added $50,000 from the Consumer Attorneys.

LEG: In the Bee, Bryan Anderson and Alexei Koseff report on some of the bills signed by the governor.

Best is the caption of the the video in the article: "A fund-raising drive to benefit a Berkeley hot dog vendor whose money was confiscated Saturday by a police officer has raised more than $70,000. Martin Flores, a UC Berkeley alumnus, caught the incident on video. Beto Matias was selling food from a cart."

As you know, I love my street food. On the seventh day, the creator made bacon-wrapped hot dogs and mangonadas. Namu Amida Butsu!

GAS TAX: Patrick McGreevy reports in the Times that those road signs will no longer tout SB 1, which is on the ballot for repeal next month. 

$$$: Also in the Bee, Adam Ashton writes that the Legislative Analyst reports that state employee will increase $1.4 billion in the current budget year to $17.7 billion.

Meanwhile, Amazon is moving to a $15 per hour minimum wage. Margot Roosevelt reports in the Times on the impact in the Inland Empire, where 20,000 people work for Amazon in the key transportation hub as well as Whole Foods Markets, which Amazon bought last year. The increase helps small businesses as well as employees spend more. Roosevelt writes "In an April filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Amazon disclosed its workers’ median annual pay as $28,446, or about $13.68 an hour, meaning half its workers earn less and half earn more."

For Sacramento, Amazon has a large warehouse near the airport and a delivery center warehouse in West Sacramento. Wages are "Up to $14.55/hour." At the airport location, up 1,500 employees are being expected to be hired.

 

DOING THE LAUNDRY: The California Democratic Party this morning reported $154,000 from the State Building and Construction Trades Union, while Assemblymember Ken Cooley (D-Rancho Cordova) sent $50,000 to the party. Cooley is chair of Rules and a member of Governmental Organization.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Al Austin II, Zach DenneyPaul Olson, Mark Orozco, and Tim Steed!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYIN

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
California Lawmakers Wrote 1,016 New Laws This Year. Here's Some Of What Did And Didn't Make It
John Myers @
latimes.com
Sunday marked the end of the year for enacting new California laws, as Gov. Jerry Brown took action on hundreds of bills sent to him by the Legislature this summer. Some new laws will be felt from restaurants to the corporate boardroom and beyond. Other sweeping proposals, though, were rejected.

White House Has a Message for Republican Candidates: Stay Close to Trump

In a memo, Bill Stepien, the White House political director, described a plan for the president to campaign in seven states for House candidates who support his agenda.