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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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We Stand With Seniors

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45) Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      (change: CA45 from toss-up to Leans Dem)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/16-9/230/2018 has Democrats+7.4. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 27.4% D, 72.6% R (Change from yesterday: R+1.4)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein +1.0)
  • House control: 76.3%% D, 23.7% R (Change from yesterday: D-4.2)
  • House seats: 229 D, 206 R (Change from yesterday: D-3)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.1% D (Change from yesterday: D-0.4)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 7 Republicans (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

Sorry about yesterday. Server problems again as I wasn't able to save. Things still seem to be glitchy this morning, but I'll try to get this out.

We have a new report of voter reg

FELONY MURDER: When I was in law school, it was surprising that someone could be charged with murder for being an accomplice. This particularly has hit African-American men involved in gangs. Jerry Brown signed SB 1437 (Skinner) on Sunday to allow inmates to petition for resentencing under certain circumstances and drastically changes the felony murder law. 

It was a shock to learn that someone participating in a convenience store robbery could be convicted for felony murder and sentenced to life in prison, even if he didn't pull a trigger. I think Professor Poulus teared up teaching us that. 

Thank you, Governor Brown and Senator Nancy Skinner. To the vulnerable Democrats who ducked the vote, quack quack. Thank you Republicans Joel Anderson, Anthony Cannella, and John Moorlach for voting "aye" in the face of opposition of law enforcement, including DAs.

NO JUSTICE FOR JANITORS: The governor vetoed  AB 2079 (Gonzalez Fletcher), the much publicized bill to require protections from sexual harassment/abuse of janitorial workers, including peer trainers. 100 janitors marched from San Francisco to Sacramento to call for the bill's approval. The bill was strongly opposed by business interests over costs for training and liability threats.

It was not a good last day of the bill-signing period for Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher (D-San Diego), as she had six bills vetoed, mostly on abuse and employment discrimination. She likely would have fared better under fellow San Diegan Pete Wilson.

MUST READ: Padma Lakshmi's op-ed in the NYT about her sexual assault.

 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jim Araby, Brandon Castillo, Gina FrisbyRyan McHinney, Darrell Park, Bob Reid (go Ducks!) and Andrea York!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

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