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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • CA45 (Irvine): changed from Toss-up to Leans Democrat
  • AD58 (Downey): changed from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat
  • AD66 (Torrance): changed from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 5 leaners -- Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Walters (CA45) Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      (change: CA45 from toss-up to Leans Dem)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


 

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GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/25/2018 has Democrats+7.4. (Change from yesterday: D-0.3)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 31.7% D, 68.3% R (Change from yesterday: R-1.4)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 59.7%, de León 40.3% (Change from yesterday: Feinstein -0.7)
  • House control: 80.4%% D, 19.6% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.5
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.6% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 46 Democrats, 7 Republicans (Change from yesterday: D+2)

 

Happy Saturday! Sorry about yesterday's glitch. Today is the Farm to Fork festival on Capitol Mall and I'm hungry just reading the schedule. I love that the Mexican Consulate General is sponsoring a cooking demonstration by a chef from Ensenada at 4pm. Rosarito lobster comes to mind, although it's likely a different shellfish or fish. Snapper or dorado (mahi-mahi), I'd bet.

The food along MXN 10...OMG. As Anthony Bourdain wrote in one of his books, the best chefs for all cuisines are Mexican. Obviously, it's all Latin America and our taste buds appreciate your toil. 

SPORTS PAGE: Dodgers are one game out of taking the NL West, and they need a little help from the Giants. Today's game is at 1:05. The Rockies host the Nats at 5:10 PDT. The A's are at the Angels at 6:07, while the Padres host the D-Backs at 5:40. In football, Cal is hosting Oregon at 7:30, Stanford is at Notre Dame at 4:30, and USC is at Arizona @ 7:30.

BILL UPDATE from Friend of The Nooner lobbyist Chris Micheli:

Through yesterday COB (Friday, September 28), the Governor has acted upon 1034 bills this year as follows:

  • Signed:  903
  • Vetoed:  131
  • Total Bills Acted on: 1,034
  • Veto rate:  12.7%
  • He has 183 bills left on his Desk to be acted upon by midnight tomorrow, Sunday, September 30.

GRAY MATTER: On 9/21, Assembly Gov't Org Committee chair Adam Gray (D-Merced) took $35,000 from R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company. Today, he's spiking the football for getting a feasibility study approved for a medical school in the central San Joaquin Valley. For the home-gamers, Assembly GO regulates tobacco and owns the biggest menthol cigarette brand (Newport) in America, which is specifically marketed to African-Americans.

GUNS: Alexei Koseff writes in the Bee that Brown yesterday signed SB 1100 (Portantino), which raises the age required of purchasers of long guns from 18 to 21, providing consistency with the requirement for handguns.

SB 905 (Wiener): The governor vetoed Scott Wiener's bill to create a pilot project allowing nine cities to extend alcohol sales until 4am.  "I believe we have enough mischief between midnight to 2am without adding two more hours of mayhem." Liam Dillon writes it up for the Times.

The cities that wanted the bill are convention cities and, not surprisingly, Coachella. Next year's likely occupant of the corner office likely will have a different take--Gavin Newsom made his money in wineries and hospitality. He was also mayor of San Francisco, the city that wants the authority most. 

By the way, stay at Plumpjack Inn in Squaw Valley. Hosted a staff retreat and a conference there and it was great.

SPREADING THE LOVE: Gavin Newsom sent dough to 15 legislative Democrats from his campaign account in September.  He also gave $200,000 to the California Democratic Party.

PROP 8 (Dialysis centers): DaVita reports giving $12,874,124 to the campaign against the ballot measure that would provide state regulation of kidney dialysis centers. Be ready for a lot more commercials. The no campaign has raised $96.3 million.

REGISTRATION: I missed this tweet from Paul Mitchell earlier this week: "Note the doubling of NEW registrations in #CA25, #CA39, #CA45 and #CA48 over 2016, which is insane. One really huge number: in #CA45 only 5,203 registrations during this period in 2014, compared to 27,416 this year. Never seen this level of registration in a gubernatorial cycle."

CA45 (Irvine): In the NYT/Siena College poll, women are 52%-39% for Democrat Katie Porter. Men break 48%-45% for Republican Congresswoman Mimi Walters. Walters gets crossover of 9% and Porter 7%. Of non-Dems/non-Reps, Porter gets 57%, Walters captures 26%. 17% of those voters are undecided.

That's huge among independent/minor party voters. Walters can't win re-election without them. Porter leads among nonwhite (50%) and white, college-educated voters (53%). Walters gets white, non-college educated voters (50%). The polling was done before Thursday's Kavanaugh hearing. The result in the district was 40% support of confirmation and 48% against. 

Voter registration, polling, and Kavanaugh moves this race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat. This is the sixth district with the highest percentage of bachelor degree attainment (54.7%). UC Irvine has 32,443 students and over 11,000 staff. Damn university outranked my beloved Davis in the U.S. News & World Report rankings. The Anteaters are #7 among public universities, while the Aggies are #10.

Anyway, I'm betting that the conversation on the UCI campus over the next 38 days won't be advantageous to Walters.

Ballot titles also, all things considered. Walters is "U.S. Representative, 45th District," while Porter has "Consumer Protection Attorney." If I were running Porter's campaign, I would have used Consumer Attorney/Professor. If I were running the campaign for Walters, I think I'd use "Investment Banker." This is not a year for incumbent advantage in a swing district. Even the scorned banking industry is more popular than Congress right now.

SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): The State Building and Construction trade gave $50,000 to the independent expenditure committee supporting former Assemblyman Mike Eng (D-Monterey Park) against Baldwin Hills councilmember Susan Rubio (D). The IE committee supporting Rubio and against Eng has spent $104k from PhARMA, New Car Dealers Association, and the mod Dem group Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy, which courts support from big business interests. 

SD36 Laundromat: Marggie Castellano (D) picked up $40,000 from the Democratic Party of Orange County. Best contribution received by the county party in September? $5,000 from Lockyer for Controller 2022. Leftover campaign money is nice to have. 

Lockyer had $1,408,674.97 cash on hand as of last Saturday. He will be 81 in 2022. He is closer to Orange County than his Hayward days, now living in Long Beach.

AD15 (Berkeley): The independent expenditure committee supporting Buffy Wicks reports spending $146,951 on mail, polling, and consulting. The committee is funded by a combined $282,500 from the California Dental Association, California Medical Association, and EdVoice. The IE committee is named "Coalition for East Bay Health Care Access, Affordable Housing and Quality Public Schools."

Wicks is running against fellow Democrat Jovanka Beckles, a Richmond councilmember. Like in AD76, AD15 is a showdown of a "Berniecrat" vs. a more "conventional" Dem. Wicks worked for Obama in campaigns and in The White House. That earned her the endorsement of Obama, a big assist in the very diverse district. Beckles is African-American.

AD16 (Tri-Valley): Assemblymember Catharine Baker (R-Dublin) picked up the laundry yesterday, which included $125,000 from the Alameda County Republican Central Committee and $75,000 from the California Republican Party. Alameda's money came from PG&E, Valero, The Dentists Insurance Company (malpractice), and four Assembly GOP colleagues. Valero's refinery is in the neighboring AD11.

AD32 (Kings): The California Republican Party also sent $75k to Justin Mendes (R-Hanford) for his campaign against Assemblymember Rudy Salas.

AD58 (Downey): The State Building and Construction Trades continue their campaign against Assemblymember Cristina Garcia (D-Bell Gardens) with $100,000 more and a $30,917 mailer.

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Kevin Perèz-Allen!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
  • For 30 Years PDI has been California’s premier data vendor. Now, you can get live online trainings on the newest PDI software every week :

    - Tuesday 4PM Intro Training http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/7974123804544951041
    - Wednesday 10AM Advanced Training http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/5939475338323113986
    - Thursday 10AM Intro Training http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/9139751265522417409
    - Thursday 4PM Field Canvassing Training http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/2643687035041950723
  • Add your classified for $40/week by emailing scottlay@gmail.com.

 

 

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