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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

E-41

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/25/2018 has Democrats+7.7. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 30.3% D, 69.7% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.7)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 61.4%, de León 38.6% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 79.9%% D, 29.1% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.5
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.5% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

EAR TICKLER: There is a new Serial podcast episode out today and later today, the Sacramento Bee's political team will debut a podcast.

SPORTS PAGE: The Giants dropped a game to the Padres, but of course it doesn't matter. The big loss was by the Dodgers, while the Rockies polished off the Phillies 14-0. The A's and Angels both won, but it is irrelevant to the playoff race. Today's a day off for all of our California teams. Tomorrow begins the regular season-ending series between the Giants and Dodgers, at the park on Willie Mays Plaza. 

People ask me how I can be both a Giants and Dodgers fan--it is heretical, particularly in NorCal (SoCal folks don't have an attention span--you know me after all). Yes, I grew up with Dodger Blue pumping through my veins. When I moved to Davis for college, my two roommates were from the Bay Area and diehard Giants fans. I had the choice of loving the orange and black or never waking up after a slumber. It was a life or death choice. Do not judge. Yes, my friends such as Cynthia Leon will never get over it, but oh well.

Yeah, it's okay for the Giants to drop these final three games as we bid farewell to Hunter Pence.

CA45 (Irvine): The NYT/Siena College poll is complete [n=518; +/- 4.5%]:

  • Katie Porter (D): 48%
  • Mimi Walters (R-inc.): 43%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 41%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 4%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 43%
  • Dems take control: 51%
  • Don't know: 6%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 40%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 12%

POLL POSITION: The respected nonpartisan, nonprofit Public Policy Institute of California is out with a statewide survey. The numbers are not surprising for those of us who see legit internals. Yes, everybody likes to glom onto outlier polls casting something different than reality, as there is an incentive for both sides to make it seem more competitive. 

There's a lunchtime briefing on the poll today, which I'll be rushing over to attend assuming this Senate Judiciary Committee clusterf*** . Here are some of the results. I have something like 200+ crosstabs. I love Nooner Premium subscribers, but even I run out of time!

Governor - likely voters

  • John Cox (R): 39%
  • Gavin Newsom (D): 51%
  • Don't know: 7%
  • Neither/won't vote for governor (volunteered): 3%

U.S. Senate - likely voters

  • Dianne Feinstein (D): 40%
  • Kevin de León (D): 29%
  • Don't know: 3%
  • Neither/won't vote for governor (volunteered): 23%

Prop 6 (Gas tax repeal) - likely voters

  • Yes: 39%
  • No: 52%
  • Don't know: 8%

Prop 10 (rent control expansion) - likely voters

  • Yes: 36%
  • No: 48%
  • Don't know: 16%

Jerry Brown job approval - all respondents

  • Approve: 49%
  • Disapprove: 32%
  • Who's Jerry Brown? (really, don't know): 20%

Legislature job approval - all respondents

  • Approve: 46%
  • Disapprove: 37%
  • What's a legislature (really, don't know): 17%

Taxes/services - all respondents

  • 50% higher taxes and more services
  • 44 lower taxes and fewer services
  • 6 don’t know

President Trump job approval - all respondents

  • Approve: 30%
  • Disapprove: 66%
  • Don't know: 5%

Senator Feinstein job approval - all respondents

  • Approve: 44%
  • Disapprove: 35%
  • Don't know: 20%

Senator Harris job approval - all respondents

  • Approve: 44%
  • Disapprove: 27%
  • Don't know: 29%

Importance of Supreme Court nomination - all respondents

  • Very important: 59%
  • Somewhat important: 24%
  • Not too important: 8%
  • Not at all important: 6%
  • Don't know: 3%

Abortion - all respondents

  • Yes, overturn Roe versus Wade: 26%
  • No, not overturn Roe versus Wade: 66%
  • Don’t know: 7%

[n=1,710 adult residents; 09/08-09/19/2018; live telephone calls with random digit dialing; English/Spanish; MOE +/- 3.5%]

 

GOV: Yesterday, John Cox started his statewide bus tour by playing to our taste buds. It began at the Rosemead factory of Huy Fong foods. You know it as the wonderland that makes Sriracha.

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
University Of California Assets Increase, Totaling $118.7 Billion
dailycal.org
The assets of the University of California increased by $8.9 billion over the past year, outpacing its benchmark and totaling $118.7 billion as of June 30, 2018, according to the UC Chief Investment Officer of the Regents Jagdeep Bachher recent’s report.

UC Faculty Leaders Announce Study On Whether Sat And Act Tests Accurately Predict College Success
Teresa Watanabe @
latimes.com
At the request of UC President Janet Napolitano, the Academic Senate will study the value of requiring applicants to take standardized tests and submit their scores. The study will take time, so no decision is likely for months to come.

UC Berkeley Alumna Creates Pandia Health To Increase Birth Control Access
dailycal.org
With a goal to prevent all unwanted pregnancies, campus alumna Sophia Yen co-founded an organization called Pandia Health that aims to make access to birth control easier for those who need it.

Trump Says He'll Avert Government Shutdown - Politico
POLITICO STAFF @

President Donald Trump on Wednesday committed to signing an $852 billion funding bill that would avert a partial government shutdown on midnight on Sunday.

Republicans To Tread Carefully In Questioning Kavanaugh And Ford
Jennifer Haberkorn @
latimes.com
Republicans don't want to be seen mistreating someone who claims she was nearly raped.

Scenes from Fordâ

Christine Blasey Ford, who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were both in high school, testified Thursday before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Her testimony was marked by protesters who swarmed Capitol Hill and the Senate Office Building where Ford's testimony took place, as well as by lawmakers who joined with protesters in opposing Kavanaugh's confirmation.