If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

advertisement

We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

  • SD36 (Carlsbad): changed from Likely Republican to Leans Republican
  • SD36 (Carlsbad): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers]  - NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: I have added to the analysis I emailed out last night.

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

advertisement

Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

E-43

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/19/2018 has Democrats+7.8. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • US Senate control: 30.3% D, 69.7% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.7)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US Senate projected vote: Feinstein: 61.4%, de León 38.6% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 80.4% D, 19.6% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.4)
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.5% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

SPORTS PAGE: Last night, the A's clinched an AL wild card spot, while the Giants fired their general manager. The Dodgers and Rockies both won, so Los Angeles is still holding on to the NL West. The series continue tonight with the Dodgers at Arizona (6:40), Angels hosting the Rangers (7:07), A's at Seattle (7:10), and Padres at the Giants (7:15).

STUDENTS: 4/10 free Nooner Premium subscriptions paid for by another subscriber are still available. Email me a photo of your student ID and you're set through 01/01/2020.

NOONER CONTEST: We're now six days from the 2018 General Nooner Contest! I have added SD36 (Carlsbad) to the contest questions. That makes 30 districts and two tie-breaker questions (Newsom % and Prop. 6%). Contest opens at noon on Monday, October 1st and is free for all Nooner readers. The list of districts were in last Wednesday's Nooner, which is available here. Just add on SD36 with a point value of 7.

 

Happy National Voter Registration Day! No, it's not California's deadline as some people have been thinking. Our deadline is October 22 (E-15) for either postmarks or completed online registration. 17-year olds who will turn 18 by Election Day can complete the regular registration. Other 16- and 17-year-olds can pre-register to vote with their registration becoming automatically active on their 18th birthday.

This morning, Secretary of State Alex Padilla announced that 209,577 pre-registration transactions have been completed by California 16- and 17-year-olds since the program launched in September 2016. More than 104,000 have turned 18 and are eligible to vote in this November’s election.

Also today, the Sacramento Kings announced a nonpartisan voter registration effort with eight other teams from the NBA, NFL and MLB. The effort uses team apps and other platforms to push online registration. The other California teams participating are the Clippers, Lakers, Giants, 49ers, and A's. The customized apps in partnership with nonpartisan, nonprofit Democracy Works will allow registration, absentee ballot requests, and election-related reminders.

The Kings will run a PSA featuring forward Marvin Bagley III in two pre-season games and the October 17 season opener before the 10/22 registration deadline. Kings owner Vivek Ranadive has an op-ed for Sports Illustrated today:

My life’s work has been focused on eliminating friction and I have lived by the belief that if you have the right information at the right place at the right time, you can make the world a better place. We live in an “Uberized” world. You can whip out your phone and have access to just about any product, service or information on the planet. Why not voting? Let’s Uberize democracy.

On National Voter Registration Day, we are standing alongside teams from the MLB, NFL and the NBA to provide a nonpartisan and seamless way for our fans to make their voices heard.

For those wondering, Ranadive has been registered as Decline to State/NPP for over twenty years (perhaps since he became a citizen) and regularly votes.

Meanwhile, yesterday was like a political day in dog years, so the week must be over, right? 

#METOO: Here's a better picture from the walkout yesterday on the Capitol's west steps. Also CALmatters's @LaurelRosenhall tweets "UPDATE: In a tentative ruling this afternoon, a Sacramento judge overruled the Senate's argument that it doesn't have to follow the labor code & upheld argument that Whistleblower law is not retroactive. I'll update this story tomorrow after the court issues final ruling." 

BIG BAD JESSE DADDY: It's that season, the ghost of Jesse Unruh is back answering reader questions at Capitol Weekly.

 

PROP. 6 (Gas tax repeal): For the Los Angeles Times, Patrick McGreevy reports that Prop. 6 opponents are out with their first ad, a 30-second spot. With nearly $30 million raised and more on the way, you're not going to want to drive over any bridge or any underpass until after the election. 

The opposition is not just about the SB 1 gas tax and vehicle license fees approved this year. As the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office writes "Proposition 6 amends the State Constitution to require the Legislature to get voter approval for new or increased taxes on the sale, storage, use, or consumption of gasoline or diesel fuel, as well as for taxes paid for the privilege of operating a vehicle on public highways. Thus, the Legislature would need voter approval for such taxes as gasoline and diesel excise and sales taxes, vehicle license fees, and transportation improvement fees."

This would be one thing if the above taxes and fees were all percentage taxes and not fixed rate. The problem as you know with percentage is that there are huge changes in gas prices over time--up and down, based on international market forces. However, the fixed costs of labor and materials to perform road maintenance and construction don't change in correlation with gas prices. So, over the years, to promote stability, it has been a fixed rate. That fixed rate can be adjusted on a two-thirds vote of the Legislature, as was done in SB 1.

I don't write this to persuade Nooner readers on SB 1. You all are smart enough to make up your own mind and likely have. I'm writing about why this is much higher stakes for business and labor backers of SB 1 than just whether or not that measure stands for the next ten years. Proponents likely overreached by requiring voter approval for all vehicle-related taxes, including fixed rate ones for inflation, without approval by the voters. 

Try going to the voters every four years to explain a 10% increase in the excise tax on gasoline to adjust for the consumer price index and how it will make The 405 better. 

Spending against Prop. 6 is about the next 50+ years, and not just the next ten. It's not just about the roughly $58 billion anticipated over the next ten years--it's about hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure spending. From benefactors in business and labor, no amount of spending against the measure is too small to block Prop. 6.

The main yes committee has raised around $2.5 million, with most of it coming from the California Republican Party and Members of Congress who see it as a political play to pump up turnout. Unlike the "no" side, those big donors have already likely exhausted what's available for the campaign. They have to pivot their funds to actually win over voters on five congressional races.

While I see a lot about the gas tax on social media, privately I hear from GOP electeds who think Prop. 6 is an overreach. Many are happy to have road funding behind them without a big general obligation bond or more toll roads for awhile, leaving the Dems with the political cost of "ramming it through."

Voters will have their say on November 6. Meanwhile, be prepared to be scared to death about driving after a deluge of teevee ads. 

GOV: Last night, Gray and Sharon Davis hosted a fundraiser for Gavin Newsom at their Los Angeles home. Remember, the recall was fifteen years ago and people don't remember breakfast this morning, let alone rolling blackouts that weren't his fault. Ask a non-involved California voter how Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor in 2003, and I would bet 9 out of 10 would have no clue. Meanwhile, Gray has appeared with Arnold numerous times for discussions on California's challenges.

For those that have known me for a while, you may recall that I led colossal battles against Davis over community college funding and, while I voted against the recall, found a great friend in Arnold (a Santa Monica College alum) on those issues. As with most things in politics, it was timing. 

Thank you Gray, for your service to the state and your continued work on the issues affecting California.

CA45 (Irvine): In the NYT/Siena College pollwe have interviews from 43.4% (467) of the expected 500 likely voters. IMPORTANT: With only that portion of the sample, the MOE would be +/- 4.7%. Thus far:

  • Katie Porter (D): 49%
  • Mimi Walters (R-inc.): 43%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 40%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 5%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 43%
  • Dems take control: 51%
  • Don't know: 6%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 40%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 12%

Interviews continue in CA45 and should be completed tonight.

[NYT/Siena polls, WHEN COMPLETE: n= ~500 self-identified likely voters; live calls, random digit dialing; MOE +/-3.5%; numbers may not add up due to rounding; full methodology discussion]

CA50 (East San Diego County): Yesterday, Congressman Duncan Hunter, Jr. (R) and his wife Margaret appeared yesterday in federal court on the campaign finance fraud and related charges, reports Karen Kucher in the Union-Tribune. The hearing was just for the judge to accept a delay until December 3 (note: after the election) for the parties to review the voluminous documents in the trial. The formal delay is required under federal law ensuring the right of defendants to a speedy trial. 

DOING THE LAUNDRY: The nice people in Mendocino County sent $30,000 to Sabrina Cervantes (D-AD60) and $25,000 to Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-AD74). That's $2.39 per Democrat from the small but beautiful county. No, they didn't drop the money in a coin jar at the awesome Mendocino Market on Ukiah Street in the village. Rather, it was legally laundered. Here are the top contributions given to the county committee this calendar year. Note that one of the two SEIU max contributions 

CA STATE COUNCIL OF SERVICE EMPLOYEES $36,500.00
CA STATE COUNCIL OF SERVICE EMPLOYEES $36,500.00
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE, COUNTY AND MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES, AFL-CIO (AFSCME) $36,500.00
CALIFORNIA TEACHERS ASSN. ASSN. FOR BETTER CITIZENSHIP $35,500.00
PROFESSIONAL ENGINEERS IN CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT PECG-PAC $35,000.00
FACULTY FOR OUR UNIVERSITY'S FUTURE, A COMMITTEE SPONSORED BY THE CALIFORNIA FACULTY ASSOCIATION $21,125.00

 

Don't blame me. Y'all (well, 60.1%) including me voted for Proposition 34--written by the parties, for the parties. This is the game, and playas gotta play.

 

After the jump--WATER WARS and, of course, #CAKEDAY!

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

advertisement


The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

WATER: In Monterey County, there is a battle royale over water. While we normally think of California water wars about the rights to the liquid, in Monterey it's over who owns and thus charges for the conveyance of H2O.

Currently, the private California American Water company provides water to the Monterey Peninsula. The company is a subsidiary of the American Water Works Company. While much of the water delivered has historically been from the Carmel River, state rulings have ordered reducing the draw-down and there has been a shift to desalination and additional groundwater usage and wells to store the desalinated water. The question is how much of the cost of the new infrastructure is passed on to ratepayers when the rates are charged by a nearly $16 billion private company that pays dividends to shareholders.

Sound familiar? We just went through this issue of the cost recovery of liability incurred by PG&E relating to the wildfires.

That's about all I know. Anyway, for the second time, local activists are seeking a vote to require the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District to explore the feasibility of purchasing the infrastructure, including through eminent domain, that is currently owned and maintained by California American Water.

Supporters include numerous local officials, the League of Women Voters, and the county Democratic Central Committee. The main opponent is obviously California American Water Company.

Yesterday, California American Water reported giving $1 million to the campaign against the initiative. It spent $2.5 million in June 2014 to defeat a similar measure.

It reminds me of the 2006 effort by Yolo County to be annexed by the Sacramento Metropolitan Utility District (SMUD) for electrical service. For the out-of-towners, the city of Sacramento and many neighboring communities are served by SMUD for electricity and PG&E for natural gas. Yolo County residents wanted to have the same situation. The effort was killed when SMUD district voters were persuaded through an expensive campaign by PG&E that Yolo might increase the cost to existing customers.

Obviously, I don't live in Yolo anymore, so I don't know if activists are still dreaming of another push. 

WILDFIRES: Speaking of PG&E, Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins and Senator Bill Dodd (D-Napa) take to CALmatters to explain their rationale for spreading the cost of wildfire damages that Pacific Gas and Electric may be responsible for to ratepayers.

CANCER FIGHT SCORE: The American Cancer Society - Cancer Action Network is out with its scorecard of the stance of congressional candidates on Medi-Cal expansion.

No, I am not going to start publishing all the scorecards out there. I get some level of editorial discretion here. I have friends on both sides of this particular card, but it occurred to me how little attention is being paid to health care this mid-term.

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Joe Devlin, Anne Dunsmore, Jonathan Feldman, Stacey Fortner, and Lisa Kaplan

#FAREWELL: Longtime jack-of-all-trades state government leader Cliff Allenby (1936-2018) and former state senator Robert Presley (1924-2018).

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Anti-proposition 6 Campaign Launches Tv Ad Saying Repeal Of Gas Tax Would Put Public Safety At Risk
Patrick McGreevy @
latimes.com
The campaign against an initiative that would repeal increases to California’s gas tax launched its first television ad on Monday, asserting that Proposition 6 will put the safety of motorists in jeopardy by taking away road and bridge repair funds.

California Water Myths - Public Policy Institute Of California
ppic.org
California faces enormous challenges in establishing a sustainable path for water resource management. One challenge is the rhetoric surrounding major water issues in the state. This study highlights eight common water myths, focusing on water supply, ecosystems, and legal and governance issues. In combating these myths, the report sets the stage for a more informed approach to water policy and management.

House Conservatives Threaten Rosenstein Impeachment Vote - Politico

President Donald Trump's top allies in Congress say they'll force a vote on impeaching Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein if he refuses to testify this week about reports that he sought to secretly record the president after FBI Director James Comey's firing last year.