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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

E-44

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/19/2018 has Democrats+7.8. (Change from yesterday:no change)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

I have literally changed the House data three times this morning as new polls come in. I know--I should do it last, but then I forget.

  • US Senate control: 31.2% D, 68.8% R (Change from yesterday: R+0.6)
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • CA US SENATE PROJECTED VOTE: Feinstein: 61.4%, de León 38.6% (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • House control: 80.0% D, 20.0% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.5)
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.5% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

SPORTS PAGE: After dropping another game against St. Louis yesterday, the Giants begin their final week by hosting the Padres (7:15pm). The week is likely the farewell tour of Giants fan favorite Hunter Pence and appropriately ends with a three day weekend homestand against the Dodgers.

The A's are in Seattle (7:10pm), while the Angels host the Rangers (7:07pm). Of course, Dodgers fans will have one on the blue as they play in Arizona (6:40pm) and the other eye on the Rockies, who are hosting the Phillies (5:40pm). Dodgers lead the NL West over the Rockies by 1.5 games. Among the California NFL teams, only the Rams posted a victory last night, beating the Chargers 35-23.

STUDENTS: 8/10 free Nooner Premium subscriptions paid for by another subscriber are still available. Email me a photo of your student ID and you're set through 01/01/2020.

 

Happy Monday! For the downtown SacTown Noonerites, this is the final week of the midday farmers' markets Tuesday-Thursday.

Yesterday was just, uh, wow. By 9pm last night I couldn't believe it was only 12 hours earlier when I was writing you with the Sunday shows on in the background. So much happened throughout the day that the day seemed like a week. And, as of this writing as the sun comes up at Nooner Global Headquarters, we have no idea what the week holds. 

The week is only six hours old and it feels like it should be Friday already.

Thursday now appears to feature the Kavanaugh hearing and Rod Rosenstein's meeting with his unmaker. In other words, that it is dirty laundry day. Thursday historically is the day to get burried in the news. Try to get your head above water with news this Thursday.

Make no doubt about it, while I love Tip O'Neil's "All Politics is Local" quote, this week "All Politics is Loco." And, that cray-cray scene in Washington WILL impact the November 6 partisan races in California...down the ballot. We just don't know the impact yet and if anyone tells you they do, slap them upside the head.

As Paul Mitchell tweeted yesterday:

"The @scotus vacancy in 2016 gave some Republican voters who didn’t like Trump the justification to vote for him, as the future of the court was on the line.

If you don’t think another election with a @scotus vacancy isn’t a turnout driver for these Rep voters in 2018, you cray."

Yes, while most people are talking about people who identify with the #metoo movement being more motivated to turn out because of the handling of the Kavanaugh nomination, the equal is true on the other end. There's no "#notme" movement but, make no doubt about it, the ire is increasing daily among those most supportive of the President and his pick for the High Court.

Of course, as we've seen in the NYT/Siena polling over the last week in four competitive congressional races (one still be conducted), the President's average approval rating is a net -13.5%. This includes a whopping 14% net negative in CA48 (Huntington Beach). That's in a district that has a tie of Dana Rohrabacher (R) 45%, Harley Rouda (D) 45%. That's a much larger disconnect between the President's approval rating and an incumbent of his party.

This morning, several dozen supporters of the Capitol @WeSaidEnough movement gathered on the Capitol's west steps to demand a fair hearing of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.'s allegations against Kavanaugh.

We Said Enough

 

After yesterday's colossal tease on the Kavanaugh hearings, Michael Avenatti is headlining a funder for www.flipthe14.com/in Los Angeles tonight.

U.S. SENATE: In the Chron, Joe Garafoli  writes that Kevin de León's campaign against Dianne Feinstein is more of a campaign against Donald Trump than against California's senior senator.

CA04 (Foothills): For the Bee, Bryan Anderson reports on yesterday's debate between Congressman Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) and his challenger Jessica Morse (D):

"California’s 4th Congressional District includes Roseville and Lincoln and stretches across the Sierra from Truckee to the Sequoia National Forest. It holds over 700,000 people and is one of the largest districts in the state. And yet, each candidate attacked the other for having little connection to it.

None of the issues McClintock and Morse tackled in Sunday’s debate proved more contentious than questions surrounding their qualifications to represent the voters of the conservative region."

Morse just hopes the moderator follows with a simple question: "Who are you voting for to represent you in Congress this November?"

Moderators just don't do the "If your wife were raped and murdered..." questions at the congressional level.

CA45 (Irvine): In the NYT/Siena College pollwe have interviews from 52.8% (264) of the expected 500 likely voters. IMPORTANT: With only that portion of the sample, the MOE would be +/- 6%. Thus far:

  • Katie Porter (D): 48%
  • Mimi Walters (R-inc.): 44%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 39%
  • Disapprove: 56%
  • Don't know: 6%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 43%
  • Dems take control: 49%
  • Don't know: 8%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 39%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 14%

Interviews continue in CA45 and should be completed tomorrow.

CA49 (Oceanside): The NYT/Siena College poll, was completed last night [n=507]. 

  • Diane Harkey (R): 41%
  • Mike Levin (D): 51%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 41%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 4%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 41%
  • Dems take control: 54%
  • Don't know: 5%

Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?

  • Support: 42%
  • Oppose: 54%
  • Don't know: 5%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 41%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 12%

[NYT/Siena polls, WHEN COMPLETE: n= ~500 self-identified likely voters; live calls, random digit dialing; MOE +/-3.5%; numbers may not add up due to rounding; full methodology discussion]

AD58 (Downey): For Politico, Carla Marinucci reports that some of the biggest women advocates on sexual harassment in the Legislature have sent campaign funds to Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia, who was subject of such an investigation this year.

Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, chair of the Joint Legislative Subcommittee on Sexual Harassment Prevention and Response, and state Senator Holly Mitchell, the committee’s vice-chair, each donated $2,500 each to Garcia’s reelection campaign last week within two days of Gov. Jerry Brown‘s signing of a law they had pushed calling for the establishment of new investigative procedures for harassment victims, according to records on file with the CA secretary of state’s office.

Okay... 

PROP 6: For the SacBee Influencers Series, Dan Schnur looks at the gas tax repeal, which is popular among voters but not among many political and business leaders. 

Important point is that we haven't had reliable independent polling on the issue. As I have written, the last was by Probolsky Research in August and found the measure deeply underwater when the entire ballot title was used. Others haven't associated the tax with the purpose (which will be on the ballot), a serious methodological error. Of course, when you're doing touch-tone polling, a nineteen-word title confuses voters, particularly non-English speakers.

Have I told you yet that almost all current polling has as many potholes as I-5 in Sacramento?

PELOSI: One thing is certain--Nancy Pelosi will win re-election to CA12 on November 6. Whether she will be Speaker, Democratic Leader, or neither is unknown. Also unknown, Politico's Rachel Bade reports, is whether she will continue to lead the women (indirectly) in the caucus:

"A battle is underway for control of the Democratic Women’s Working Group, a little-known caucus aiming to vastly boost its profile and influence in the next Congress. Pelosi and her allies deny the fight is about her. But the mini-rebellion is emerging as another test of the minority leader’s newly strained hold on power — as dozens of House Democratic lawmakers and candidates have said they would not back her for speaker. The move signals a growing determination among the rank and file to decentralize the authority of Pelosi and her confidants."

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

#METOO: Laurel Rosenhall reports for CALmatters on a pending court case that has the California State Senate on the defense on the termination of an employment who alleged sexual harassment. The question is whether the state's labor laws (previously passed by said body) apply to the government, which is no new argument from the Legislature.

COSTLY JUICE: For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at the high cost of transitioning to a carbon-neutral electrical system in California.

LIFE AFTER JANUS: Joel Fox writes that after the Supreme Court's decision in Janus v. AFSCME, public employee unions have to prove their worth to would-be members, while government has to act as a neutral arbiter.

IF YOU WISH UPON A STAR... Workers in Unite Here Local 11 have agreed to a contract with the Disneyland resort that will have starting salaries of at least $15 as of January, reports Hugo Martin in the Los Angeles Times.

Meanwhile, the ballot measure that Unite Here and other unions helped qualify remains on the November ballot in Anaheim. That measure, which applies to employers that have received tax incentives from the city, would require a $15 minimum in January and would increase the minimum wage $1 annually until it reaches $18/hour, and then it would be indexed to inflation. As I have written about before, there's a legal question as to whether it would apply to the Disneyland Resort. 

PENDLETON: Joe Mathews looks at the future of the Marine base at Camp Pendleton as some consider the future of military training facilities and developers and others eye the pristine land for future development in the mostly undeveloped swath along The 5 between Orange County and Sandy Eggo.

  

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Steve Cruz, Alexander Hall, Katie Hanzlik, Cynthia Leon, Berman Obaldia, and Joanne Wendler!

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: An astute reader caught a typo in the polling results from CA25 on Saturday. On the question of the ban of "assault-style" weapons, the "Don't know" should have been 13%, not 43%. I've corrected it online.

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Assembly District 15 Candidate Jovanka Beckles Holds Campaign Event
dailycal.org


GOP Troubles With Women Get Worse After Trump Defends Kavanaugh On Sexual Assault Accusation
Michael Finnegan @
latimes.com
The sexual assault allegation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has firmly set gender politics as a central force in the midterm election as Democrats like Katie Hill in the Santa Clarita area try to build support among suburban women already troubled by President Trump and the GOP.

The Health 202: Republicans are running from health care on the campaign trail -- except for President Trump

Trump talks Obamacare repeal to the base.

New Sexual Abuse Allegations Roil Kavanaugh Nomination
Laura King, Sarah D. Wire @
latimes.com
Hours after Christine Blasey Ford's attorneys commit to a Senate hearing on Thursday, a new allegation of sexual misconduct emerges against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, this one reported by the New Yorker magazine. The White House and Kavanaugh swiftly issue denials.

Texas Senate campaign reveals the differing views of Beto Oâ

Race relations is emerging as a primary issue in the campaign for Cruz's Senate seat.

Jovanka Beckles To Advance In District 15 Race After Dan Kalb Concedes
dailycal.org
According to Kalb, the votes in Contra Costa County would not be able to make up the 295 vote difference between him and Beckles, because Beckles polled better than Kalb in Contra Costa County.

A G.O.P. Senate Candidate Highlights His Drug Industry Career. Should He?

The race for Senator Robert Menendez’s seat has proved competitive in deeply blue New Jersey. His Republican opponent, Bob Hugin, built his career in the pharmaceutical industry.

Los Angeles Reduces Eastern Sierra Water Deliveries Because Of Climate Change. At Risk, Ranchers Say, Is A Way Of Life
Louis Sahagun @
latimes.com
For nearly a century, these lands have been made green thanks to annual flooding by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, helping maintain cattle forage and keeping alive a culture of ranching in southern Mono County.

Top #metoo Lawmakers Donate To Colleague Accused Of Harassment - Politico

California Assemblywoman Cristina Garcia is under investigation following allegations from a former staffer who said Garcia groped him in 2014.