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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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E-44

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/18/2018 has Democrats+7.8. (Change from yesterday: D-0.2)

For comparison purposes only: In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

I have literally changed the House data three times this morning as new polls come in. I know--I should do it last, but then I forget.

  • US Senate control: 31.6% D, 68.4% R
  • Senate seats: 49 D, 51 R
  • CA US SENATE PROJECTED VOTE: Feinstein: 61.4%, de León 38.6%
  • House control: 80.3% D, 19.7% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.2)
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.5% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

 

SPORTS PAGE:  Ugh, what I comeback by Stanford. Jim Battin and I are in the fetal position this morning, with quack-en-gitis. Still, great game and the teams deserve their respective rankings. Go Ducks! Ducks head to Memorial Stadium at Cal next weekend for what should be a great game. My Aggies had a great 44-21 win in the Big Sky opener over Idaho, while the Hornets fell a touchdown behind Montana. For the SLO alum, don't look at the score. 70-17 loss to Eastern Washington.

In béisbol, A's and Dodgers both won, and the Angels, Giants, and Padres (to the Dodgers) lost. Today we have morning games and Padres @ Dodgers at 1:10pm. The battle for LALA LAND is at 1:05pm at Memorial Coliseum.

Of course, it's Sunday. Niners are finishing their game in Kansas City as you read this, as are the silver and black in Miami.  

STUDENTS: An awesome Nooner Premium subscriber has purchased ten student Nooner Premium subscriptions for enrolled students. First come, first served. Send me a photo of your ID card or some other verification, and it is yours. Email scottlay@gmail.com.

One of my motivations for The Nooner goes back to being a community college student. Newcomers to California politics, you may not remember the great California Journal. It was a monthly magazine that dove in to politics and policy in a way not found by any single source these days. There are lots of great writers around, but the world has changed since the day of the Journal.

It cost something like $39.99/year back in 1994 (a fortune!) when I was a community college student, and Paul Mitchell and I basically ran for student government at Orange Coast College so we'd have access to a copy in the student government office. Okay, that's in jest, but that's how we treated that publication.  

Anyway, I try to provide a little bit of that gem daily. So, grab one of the free subscriptions if you're a student, which gives you full access to the full race analysis on competitive races. If you'd like to sponsor a student subscription for $10/year, you can do so here.

OH YEAH, POLITICS AND POLICY

Happy first Sunday of fall! Great morning at farmers' market for a break in the middle of writing as I awaited this morning's polls to be incorporated in the models. For the SacTown readers, this is the final week of the Tues-Wed-Thurs markets. Of course, Sunday continues to be year-around.

I have added the U.S. Senate outlook to the FiveThirtyEight daily model projections above at the request of a user. Don't worry, your Nooner is not becoming a national newsletter but, as he put it, it limits a visit to yet one more site to get a daily data point.

The voter registration data on the AroundTheCapitol district pages are now the most recent (05/21) data. Before I had January. Believe it or not, it's actually a pain to convert the Excel/CSV files from SOS to be able to import them. Yes, I'll have a comparison page in the next couple of days.

CA10 (Stanislaus): Garth Stapley reports in the Bee on yesterday's "lively" forum in Turlock between Congressman Jeff Denham (R) and his challenger, venture capitalist Josh Harder (D).  

Unlike Thursday’s mostly polite discussion before Modesto Bee editors, the candidates came out swinging Saturday and kept landing blows until the event, hosted by the Turlock Journal, ended 90 minutes later.

“We’re throwing barbs back and forth today. I guess it’s kind of fun, kind of entertaining,” Denham reflected toward the end of Saturday’s fray.

Sonja Hutson also covered the forum for KQED.

CA22 (Tulare): A data point I didn't write about earlier this week. The Act Blue monthly aggregate contributions came in. Devin Nunes (R-inc.) challenger Andrew Janz (D) received $1.1 million through the indirect giving site in August. It's still a long shot for the Democrats and no big interest is playing on Janz's behalf, but that number is huge. But, it shows the polarizing nature of House Intelligence Committee chair Nunes.

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): In the Times, Robin Abcarian went to a Palmdale "debate" in the seat of Katie Hill's (D) challenge of Congressman Steve Knight and reports that it was more a structured Q&A session than an actual debate. Shocking, I tell you. "Cheers are not dispositive. But I just have a feeling about Hill."

It is truly a dead heat race, as we saw in the NYT/Siena poll, which found Knight 27%, Hill 25%. The ground reports (familial and otherwise) I get are that the TV is overwhelming, but Hill's ground forces are clearly stronger. The ground forces are not unexpected, and are not always determinative--ask Bernie Sanders. That's also true about debates/forums. Unless they are controlled attendance, such as presidential debates, supporters of challengers always have more motivation than supporters of incumbents.  

CA45 (Irvine): I didn't know we were going to get a live poll in CA45. It's like Christmas! In the NYT/Siena College pollwe have interviews from 37.6% (188) of the expected 500 likely voters. IMPORTANT: With only that portion of the sample, the MOE would be +/- 8%. Thus far:

  • Katie Porter (D): 49%
  • Mimi Walters (R-inc.): 43%
  • Undecided: 8%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 38%
  • Disapprove: 58%
  • Don't know: 4%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 42%
  • Dems take control: 50%
  • Don't know: 7%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 38%
  • Oppose: 50%
  • Don't know: 13%

Interviews continue in CA45 and should be completed Monday.

CA49 (Oceanside): I thought we'd have reached the sample goal of 500 last night, but Saturday's are tough to reach people in an already difficult telephone polling environment. In the NYT/Siena College pollwe have interviews from 92.0% (460) of the expected 500 likely voters. Thus far:

  • Diane Harkey (R): 42%
  • Mike Levin (D): 51%
  • Undecided: 7%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 40%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 5%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 41%
  • Dems take control: 54%
  • Don't know: 5%

Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?

  • Support: 41%
  • Oppose: 49%
  • Don't know: 10%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 40%
  • Oppose: 49%
  • Don't know: 11%

Interviews continue in CA49 and should be completed tonight.

[NYT/Siena polls, WHEN COMPLETE: n= ~500 self-identified likely voters; live calls, random digit dialing; MOE +/-3.5%; numbers may not add up due to rounding; full methodology discussion]

CA50 (East San Diego County): Like Janz in CA22, Ammar Campa-Najjar had a huge haul through Act Blue in the month of August following the indictment of Duncan Hunter, Jr. on campaign finance fraud. Like CA22, this is still a long-shot and not a target of Democrats, but both Campa-Najjar and Janz have plenty of money for television and mail. They just have to turn it around quickly, as ballots start hitting mailboxes in just over two weeks. Of course, those who vote the first week after receiving their ballot aren't persuadable voters, particularly for races high on the ticket. 

AD60 (Corona): Republican Bill Essayli  picked up $50,000 from the California Republican Party ATM yesterday for his challenge against Assemblymember Sabrina Cervantes (D).

While polling suggest that the gas tax repeal is heading to failure, make no doubt about it that it's a hot issue in this commuter-heavy district. Essayli and allies are attacking Cervantes for her vote in favor of SB 1, while Cervantes and allies argue what that vote and the tax are delivering to solve commuter woes in the district. 

CALIFORNIA DREAMING: All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray... For the Times, Melanie Mason begins a series on California's economy through the eyes of "The 94301" (Palo Alto) and other wealthy zip codes. 

The state scooped up just under $1 billion from nearly 9,000 tax returns filed in 94301 in 2016 — more revenue than from any other ZIP Code in California.

Much is made of the widening gap between California’s very rich and very poor. But just as significant is how the fate of the latter depends heavily on the former. . . 

“We are very dependent on millionaires,” said Mike Genest, former budget director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “If the millionaires get a cold, we all die of the flu.”

Residents in that single Palo Alto ZIP Code paid 28 times more in taxes in 2016 than all those living in Tehama County, 200 miles northeast of Palo Alto in the heart of California’s northern forests.

Tehama feels worlds away from Silicon Valley — the kind of place that exports walnuts and black olives, not a buzzy new app or revolutionary gadget.

So long as the taxpayers of Palo Alto are thriving — as they are now — their tax dollars help fund government programs in Tehama and other less prosperous areas of California.

Economists and politicians have long said that California’s volatile revenue base leaves the state at risk for a painful budgetary reckoning when the economy slumps. But there’s been little incentive to change the system as long as California’s economy booms. And the political risks of revamping the tax structure have so far proved more intimidating than the prospect of recession.

Sorry for the long excerpt, but I just find it a great story. Folks, this type of deep reporting is why we need media that support writers (and other team members) composing it. Great work, Mel! 

More after the jump . . . 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

CALIFORNIA VOTING RIGHTS ACT: For the Union-Tribune, Kristen Taketa looks at why some school districts, even after switching to district rather than at-large elections under the CVRA, don't always result in a change in the demographic membership of their governing boards.

CCPOA: In his Sunday column, John Myers writes up the attempted resurgence of the once-central California Correctional Peace Officers Association.

[W]hile unions representing teachers and nurses have remained a constant presence, the California Correctional Peace Officers Assn. seemed to step back from the spotlight over the past decade. The CCPOA remained a political force but eschewed the kind of splashy statewide campaigns that had made it an electoral juggernaut. . . .

Last week, the organization inched back toward its high-profile past by spending $1 million for television commercials promoting two Democrats: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom for governor and Richmond Assemblyman Tony Thurmond for superintendent of public instruction. That’s not huge money for TV ads in California. But it was a reminder that the union still has what it takes to bring attention to its almost 27,000 prison officers who pride themselves on “walking the toughest beat in the state,” as their slogan says.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Rebecca Barrett, Dan Borenstein, Sophia Fanslau, Assemblymember Adam Gray, Kara Bush Grossglauser, Paul Hegyi, Khaim Morton, and Dan Weintraub!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/r.html?s=n&l=https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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