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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

E-45

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 9/06-9/18/2018 has Democrats+8.0. (Change from yesterday: no change)

For comparison purposes only, the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 80.9% D, 20.1% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.4)
  • House seats: 232 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: D-1)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.6% D (Change from yesterday: D+0.1)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: no change)

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

EAR TICKLER: On the California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Melanie Mason talk about the impact of the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings on California's U.S. Senate race and the governor's actions on legislative bills.

On the podcast topic, if you haven't listened to the new season of the Serial podcast by This American Life and WBEZ, I can tell you that the first episode ("A Bar Fight Walks into the Justice Center") was fantastic. If you missed my previous graf on it, this season is a year inside the county courthouse Cleveland, OH. As host Sarah Koenig points out, this could be any of America's mid-large sized cities, including Sacramento. The team chose Cleveland because it was the most open in terms of media access. 

For anybody interested in the criminal justice system from any perspective, it's worth a listen. In the first episode, Sarah interviews the defense attorney, prosecutor, accused, and a witness.

SPORTS PAGE: This play was not called targeting in the USC-WSU game last night. If I had kids, that alone would have me keep them out of football. 

Meanwhile, today's big PAC-12 game is #7 Stanford @ #20 Oregon at 5pm (ABC). Quack! In béisbal, the Gigantes played at 10:05am, the Angels are in Houston (4:!0pm), the A's host the Twins (6:05pm), and the Padres return for game to in Chavez Ravine at 6:10pm. Last night, the A's won with a walk-off by Khris Davis in the 10th and the Dodgers dropped game one of the series 3-5.

The A's appear safely in an AL wild card slot and the Dodgers are in the NL West spot by 1.5 games.

 

Well, hello there. Happy fall, California.

What a flippin' week. My apologies for the BIG ERROR on typing out the insurance commissioner results as if they were superintendent of public instruction. I have no idea how that happened. My brain was literally thinking "What is Steve Poizner running as again?" NPP...non-partisan...SPI. Thurmond/Tuck. That's the best I can figure out.

Meanwhile, I also made an error on CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale). As corrected below, the results were Knight (R) 47%, Hill (D) 45% and not the other way around as my stupid fingers typed. Too many numbers this week. I didn't send out a correction immediately as I did in IC/SPI because the error was discovered later (thanks readers!) and it was within the 3.5% margin of error.

I hate errors and, to be honest, there are a lot more out there than you see. Those of us in the media and pseudo-media (me) find them all the time and alert each other before others see them. I found a major labeling error (wrong race) in Reuters/Ipsos...I don't make fun of them, I let them know.

Anyway, most importantly, I didn't type that the Angels beat the A's 21-3, and got that one correct.

 

From the desk of Friend of the Nooner lobbyist Chris Micheli:

Through yesterday COB (Friday, September 21), the Governor has acted upon 727 bills this year as follows:

    • Signed: 666
    • Vetoed: 61
    • Total Bills Acted on: 727
    • Veto rate: 8.4 %

He has 490 bills left on his Desk to be acted upon by midnight on Sunday, September 30. With 9 full days left, he’ll need to act on an average of 55 bills per day to finish.

Please note, I reversed the numbers in CA25. I didn't send out an emergency correction since it was within the MOE. That said, my apologies. Too many damn numbers this week.

 

Here are the NYT/Siena results so far. Note that I have added more issues questions, as I find them interesting. Not all of the same questions were asked among districts.

CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): In the final results of the NYT/Siena College poll, [n=500 likely voters; 09/17-19/18]:

  • Katie Hill (D): 45%
  • Steve Knight (R-inc.): 47%
  • Undecided: 7%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 43%
  • Disapprove: 52%
  • Undecided: 5%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 46%
  • Dems take control: 49%
  • Don't know: 5% 

Do you favor abolishing ICE, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency?

  • Support: 29%
  • Oppose: 62%
  • Don't know: 9%

Do you support a bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border?

  • Support: 40%
  • Oppose: 54%
  • Don't know: 6%

Do you support or oppose a federal ban on the sale of assault-style guns and high-capacity magazines?

  • Support: 56%
  • Oppose: 42%
  • Don't know: 13%

CA48 (Huntington Beach): In the final results of the NYT/Siena College poll, [n=501 likely voters; 09/04-06/18]:

  • Dana Rohrabacher (R-inc.): 45%
  • Harley Rouda (D): 45%
  • Undecided: 10%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 40%
  • Disapprove: 54%
  • Undecided: 7%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 45%
  • Dems take control: 49%
  • Don't know: 6%

Do you support or oppose the actions of N.F.L. players who kneel in protest during the national anthem?

  • Support: 43%
  • Oppose: 48%
  • Don't know: 9% 

Do you support or oppose the right of N.F.L. players to kneel in protest during the national anthem?

  • Support: 56%
  • Oppose: 36%
  • Don't know: 7%

Has President Trump committed federal crimes since declaring his presidential candidacy?

  • Agree: 49%
  • Disagree: 40%
  • Don't know: 11%

CA49 (Oceanside): In the NYT/Siena College poll, we have interviews from 87.4% of the expected 500 likely voters. Thus far:

  • Diane Harkey (R): 43%
  • Mike Levin (D): 51%
  • Undecided: 7%

President Trump job approval:

  • Approve: 40%
  • Disapprove: 55%
  • Don't know: 5%

Prefer GOP keeps control of House or Dems take control?

  • GOP keeps control: 41%
  • Dems take control: 54%
  • Don't know: 5%

Do you support or oppose the tax reform bill passed by Congress and signed by the president last year?

  • Support: 42%
  • Oppose: 49%
  • Don't know: 9%

Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?

  • Support: 41%
  • Oppose: 49%
  • Don't know: 11%

Interviews continue in CA49 and should be completed tonight.

[n= ~500 self-identified likely voters; live calls, random digit dialing; MOE +/-3.5%; numbers may not add up due to rounding; full methodology discussion]

 

HEY, BIG SPENDER: Some notes from yesterday:

  • PROP 6 (Gas Tax Repeal) - NO: The United Brotherhood of Carpenters gave a cool $1 million to the campaign against the gas tax repeal.
  • SD14 (Fresno-Bakersfield): Melissa Hurtado (D) picked up $150,000 from the laundromat (Fresno and Orange County central committees) for her challenge against Senator Andy Vidak (R).
  • AD60 (Corona): SEIU State Council sent $125,000 to the independent expenditure committee for Sabrina Cervantes (D).
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): A new independent expenditure committee in support of Josh Lowenthal (D) was opened yesterday with $45,000 in seed money from David Erickson. Hehe..."independent"--Erickson is the Founder and CEO of FreeConferenceCall.com. Lowenthal is the President of the company. But, as long as they don't talk strategy when they're sitting in adjacent stalls in the C-Suite restrooms, all is legal.

    After all, it was legal for a father to bankroll an independent expenditure for his daughter in June.
  • THE DCCC: The expenditures by the Democrats' congressional committee continue. Yesterday, we had new reports in CA25 and CA45 (Irvine). 
  • THE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND: The main GOP House leadership independent expenditure committee continues to spend big. I saw reports for CA10 (Stanislaus) and CA39 (Fullerton) yesterday. Of course, the results of the CA10 buys are on my boob tube blasting Josh Harder (D) commercials in between his positive ones.
  • CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATIC PARTY: The building a couple of blocks from me picked up $1.1 million yesterday, with $500k from the California Teachers Association and lots of transfers from legislators' committees. I better wrap up this Nooner, as the lunch buffet today must be fab!

H/T to Rob Pyers and The Target Book. I couldn't keep track of all of these relying on Cal-Access and FEC alone. Follow the stream at @catargetbot.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblymember Rob Bonta, former Assemblymember Roger Dickinson, and Grant Henninger!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • POSITION YOURSELF FOR LOBBYING SUCCESS IN JUST TWO DAYS. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, Capitol Seminars' Lobbying 101 & 201 courses offer you cost-effective, comprehensive coverage of California's Legislative, Budget and Regulatory processes, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies, along with an inside perspective on best practices for navigating these processes. You’ll refer repeatedly to our valuable curriculum materials long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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