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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

E-48

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/18/2018 has Democrats+8.5. (Change from yesterday: D+0.2)

For comparison purposes only, the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

No new polls today on generic ballot.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 80.7% D, 19.3% R (Change from yesterday: D-1.6)
  • House seats: 233 D, 203 R (Change from yesterday: D-1)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.7% D (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 44 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 2 toss-ups (Change from yesterday: D+1, R+1, TU+1)
  • Not unexpectedly, CA39 went to Leans Republican; CA45 back to toss-up

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Happy humpday! 

After the jump, the NOONER ELECTION CONTEST is coming!

Pry your eyes from Stormy's book--oh wait, the hamsters tell me that it's not out until October 2 even though it is "#1 bestseller" on the bookstore Death Star--and take a few minutes to catch up on California politics and policy.

I haven't bought any of these tell-all books, and really don't want to read the detailed description of President Trump's junk. Can someone just draw an Etch-A-Sketch of the description for me? Ewwww...I'm still haunted by the description of President Clinton's crooked thingamajig.

I really don't want to wade into national politics in this space, but I know there are lots of Republican readers with great connections that read this daily scribe. Can someone who has contacts with 1600 Pennsylvania get the following cue card on the Resolute Desk?

Feinstein Pronunciation

He repeated Feinsteen this morning. That's at least three times he's pronounced it that way and I certainly don't capture every comment, and House Judiciary Committee member Matt Getz (R-FL) followed suit on #FAKENEWS CNN last night. Like her or not, this is intentional just to tweak her.

Back to kahleefonyah news...

POLL POSITION: The University of Virginia Center for Politics is out with polling this morning conducted by Reuters/Ipsos:

US SENATE: (All adults / self-identified likely voters)

  • Dianne Feinstein: 35% / 43%
  • Lean Dianne Feinstein: 5% / 3%
  • Lean Kevin de León: 6% / 6%
  • Kevin de León: 18% / 24% 
  • Other/don't know: 36% / 24%

GOVERNOR: (All adults / self-identified likely voters)

  • John Cox (R): 29% / 39%
  • Lean John Cox: 2% / 1%
  • Lean Gavin Newsom: 3% / 2%
  • Gavin Newsom (D): 45% / 52%
  • Other/none: 22% / 6%

Remember, "other" is not an option as, nder top-two, there are no write-ins.

PRESIDENT TRUMP CALIFORNIA JOB APPROVAL (All adults/self-identified likely voters)

  • Strongly approve: 16% / 19%
  • Somewhat approve: 15% / 16%
  • Lean toward approve: 2% / 1%
  • Lean toward disapprove: 2% / 2%
  • Somewhat disapprove: 12% / 11%
  • Strongly disapprove: 49% / 49%
  • Not sure: 4% / 1%

Don't expect POTUS to hop over to stump here after his Vegas rally tomorrow night.

[n=2,000 adults; 1,021 likely voters; 09/05-09/14/2018; online; credibility error +/- 2.5% of all adults; 3.5% of likely voters] 

A SurveyUSA poll is floating around, but crosstabs are not available yet. They have posted a series of questions of Californians' perspectives on the Kavanaugh nomination situation. 

GOV: Gavin Newsom is scheduled to hit the airwaves tomorrow. Considering he closed June 30 with $11.1 million on hand and has raised $7.1 million in large contributions since, 

CA21 (Kings):  @mediumbuying - "NRCC is again canceling TV schedules in Fresno DMA (for 10/3-10/22). Still has reservations in place for 10/30-11/6" 

NYTIMES CANDY: CA25 (Santa Clarita-Palmdale): The New York Times has a great feature on races across the country and the dynamics driving them, which includes CA25. It is also conducting one of its "live polls" in the district. As of this writing, 30,096 calls have been made and 433 interviews have been conducted. Results thus far have Steve Knight at 48% and Katie Hill at 45%, with 8% undecided. Obviously, calls won't continue until this evening, and they generally aim for 500 interviews in a congressional race.

The page includes an image of where the interviews have been conducted. Love or hate the editorial positions of the NYT, this is some really cool stuff. 

The first one done was in CA48 (Huntington Beach), which found Dana Rohrabacher (R) with 45%, Harley Rouda (D) with 45%, and 10% undecided. Another started in CA49 (Carlsbad/Issa) last night. Only 40 interviews were completed last night and they usually start releasing data at 150 completed interviews.

They use a very interesting methodology to call "likely voters," and the discussion is a fascinating read if you are a poligeek.

CA39 (Fullerton): On the allegation of sexual harassment against congressional candidate Gil Cisneros aired by the Congressional Leadership Fund GOP SuperPAC, The Washington Post largely debunked the veracity of the commercial. That's a problem with SuperPACs--on both sides of the aisle. They lob the questionable allegations with little accountability, not only to raise questions among would-be voters, but also to throw candidates being attacked off their positive message.

BALLOT PAYOLA WILL CONTINUE: Governor Brown for the second time yesterday vetoed Assemblymember Evan Low's AB 1947 to prohibit paying initiative petition gatherers by signature. 

EDITORIAL SCORECARD: Friends of The Nooner over at Klink Campaigns/Forward Observer have put out their first edition of the editorial scorecard for the November ballot. As you know, I used to this and I am glad someone else is since my hands are very full!

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

 

THE 2018 NOONER ELECTION CONTEST: Long-time readers remember the election contests in previous cycles and were questioned if our past-time represented days gone by when I didn't do one in June. Frankly, the programming is a lot of work, particularly with the top-two primary. In June there were 730 candidates and my head was already exploding.

However, as Abigail Bartlet says, GAME ON, BOYFRIEND!

If all goes as planned in my compact with the hamsters that interpret the horrible spaghetti code I write, the contest will begin at October 1 at, of course, noon. It will end at noon on November 6--Election Day.

Unlike previous years, I'm looking to you to help compose the "ballot." No, we're not doing all 123 questions on the ballot. We're looking at the most competitive or interesting races, and want to make it possible for people who are busy have time to complete it. If you or your boss or your favorite candidate's race is not listed, don't take offense. I think 34 questions are enough to make it a challenge, fun, and not exhausting.

You will notice below that I have assigned different point values based on the perceived competitiveness of the race. If I've missed any significant races or have proposed an inappropriate point value, let me know at scottlay@gmail.com. There is no science to this...this is about having fun.

As previously, participants will be able to choose their moniker. Some use their real names, and some use pseudonyms. Either is fine and your answers will be saved under your unique code, and you can begin working on it whenever and continue to work on it until the contest closes. The top 25 winners will be posted. With the slow nature of counting and likely closely races, I'll probably try to do periodic updates of the top 25. Again, it's sort of up to the hamsters.

  

Proposed General 2018 Nooner Contest Districts
DistrictGeographyCandidates
(i) = incumbent
Proposed Points
United States Senate Statewide
  • Kevin de León (Democratic) - California State Senator
  • (i) Dianne Feinstein (Democratic) - United States Senator
5
Governor Statewide
  • John Cox (Republican) - Businessman/Taxpayer Advocate 
  • Gavin Newsom (Democratic) - Lieutenant Governor/Businessman 
5
Lieutenant Governor Statewide
  • Ed Hernandez (Democratic) - State Senator/Businessman
  • Eleni Kounalakis (Democratic) - Businesswoman/Economic Advisor
7
Superintendent of Public Instruction Statewide
  • Tony Thurmond (Non-partisan) - Educator/State Legislator
  • Marshall Tuck (Non-partisan) - Schools Improvement Director
7
Insurance Commissioner Statewide
  • Ricardo Lara (Democratic) - California Senator 
  • Steve Poizner (No Party Preference) - Businessman/Non-Profit Director 
7
Congressional District 04 Foothills
  • (i) Tom McClintock (Republican) - United States Representative
  • Jessica Morse (Democratic) - Candidate for Congress 
5
Congressional District 10 Stanislaus
  • (i) Jeff Denham (Republican) - Businessman/Farmer/Representative 
  • Josh Harder (Democratic) - Educator/Businessman
10
Congressional District 21 Kings
  • T.J. Cox (Democratic) - Engineer/Small Businessman 
  • (i) David Valadao (Republican) - Farmer/Small Businessman 
7
Congressional District 22 Tulare
  • Andrew Janz (Democratic) - Violent Crime Prosecutor
  • (i) Devin Nunes (Republican) - U.S. Representative/Farmer
5
Congressional District 25 S. Clarita/Palmdale
  • Katie Hill (Democratic) - Homelessness Nonprofit Executive
  • (i) Steve Knight (Republican) - Member of Congress
10
Congressional District 39 Fullerton
  • Gil Cisneros (Democratic) - Education/Veterans Advocate
  • Young Kim (Republican) - Small Business Owner
10
Congressional District 45 Irvine
  • Katie Porter (Democratic) - Consumer Protection Attorney
  • (i) Mimi Walters (Republican) - Member of Congress
10
Congressional District 48 Huntington Beach
  • (i) Dana Rohrabacher (Republican) - Member of Congress
  • Harley Rouda (Democratic) - Businessman
10
Congressional District 49 Carlsbad
  • Diane Harkey (Republican) - Taxpayer Representative/Businesswoman
  • Mike Levin (Democratic) - Clean Energy Advocate
10
Congressional District 50 East SD Co.
  • Ammar Campa-Najjar (Democratic) - Local Business Owner
  • (i) Duncan Hunter (Republican) - U.S. Representative
7
Senate District 12 Salinas-Merced
  • Anna Caballero (Democratic) - California State Assemblywoman
  • Robert Poythress (Republican) - Farmer/Business Owner
7
Senate District 14 Fresno-Bakersfield
  • Melissa Hurtado (Democratic) - Health Advocate/Councilmember
  • (i) Andy Vidak (Republican) - Farmer/Small Businessman
7
Senate District 22 San Gabriel Valley
  • Michael Eng (Democratic) - College Teacher
  • Susan Rubio (Democratic) - Teacher/Councilwoman
10
Senate District 28 Coachella Valley
  • Joy Silver (Democratic) - Businesswoman/Housing Advisor
  • (i) Jeff Stone (Republican) - State Senator/Pharmacist
5
Senate District 34 Westminster-Santa Ana
  • (i) Janet Nguyen (Republican) - State Senator 34th District
  • Tom Umberg (Democratic) - Small Business Owner
10
Assembly District 15 Berkeley
  • Jovanka Beckles (Democratic) - Richmond City Councilmember
  • Buffy Wicks (Democratic) - Community Organizer
7
Assembly District 16 Tri-Valley
  • (i) Catharine Baker (Republican) - California State Assemblymember
  • Rebecca Bauer-Kahan (Democratic) - Law Professor/Mother
7
Assembly District 32 Kings
  • Justin Mendes (Republican) - Hanford City Councilman
  • (i) Rudy Salas (Democratic) - California State Assemblymember 
7
Assembly District 38 Santa Clarita
  • (i) Dante Acosta (Republican) - Member, State Assembly
  • Christy Smith (Democratic) - School Board Member
10
Assembly District 60 Corona
  • (i) Sabrina Cervantes (Democratic) - Member, State Assembly
  • Bill Essayli (Republican) - Federal Prosecutor
10
Assembly District 72 Seal Beach
  • Tyler Diep (Republican) - Councilmember, Westminster City Council
  • Josh Lowenthal (Democratic) - Businessman
10
Assembly District 74 Irvine
  • (i) Matthew Harper (Republican) - Small Business Owner
  • Cottie Petrie-Norris (Democratic) - Small Business Owner
7
Assembly District 76 Carlsbad
  • Tasha Boerner Horvath (Democratic) - City Councilmember/Businesswoman
  • Elizabeth Warren (Democratic) - Journalist/Community Advocate
7
Assembly District 77 North San Diego 
  • Sunday Gover (Democratic) - Real Estate Agent
  • (i) Brian Maienschein (Republican) - Assemblymember
Proposition 6 Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by The Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. 10
Proposition 8 Regulates Amounts Outpatient Kidney Dialysis Clinics Charge for Dialysis Treatment. Initiative Statute. 10
Proposition 10 Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute. 10

TIEBREAKERS

These numerical answers will only be used to sort ties within the top 25.

Governor What percentage of the vote will Gavin Newsom receive?  
Proposition 6/Gas tax repeal What percentage of "Yes" votes will Proposition 6 receive?  

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Jon Katz!

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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