If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

advertisement

We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 9
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-up of Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

advertisement


The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

E-49

DISTRICT UPDATES

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/11/2018 has Democrats+8.3.

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

No new polls today on generic ballot.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 82.3% D, 17.7% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.5)
  • House seats: 233 D, 202 R (Change from yesterday: D+3)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.8% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 45 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 1 toss-up (Change from yesterday: D+2, R+1, TU-1)

Good morning! Whoa, my head is spinning this morning...politics is cray-cray! And, yes, I'm still on only my first pot of coffee.

Before I get going, may I make a request among, you, the non-Premium subscribers? I get that a full Nooner Premium subscription may be more than you need or can afford. How about $10, which will help keep The Nooner alive? I love doing this work and people tell me all they time they like it, but like you're hearing from media across the board, it can't be free. 8,800 people read The Nooner, and I would have to have a complete paywall, but I need your support. You don't need to create a PayPal account to contribute to this endeavor. -- Thanks for listening, Scott

The best bill of the year (for my tummy) was signed yesterday--SB 946 (Lara). The bill provides a statewide rubric for reasonable regulation of sidewalk vendors and prohibits local regulations that are other than objective health, safety, or welfare concerns. As longtime readers know, I'm a big fan of the tacos, tamales,  bacon-wrapped hot dogs, etc. in my neighborhood on Sundays. The abuse of these vendors in some cities was ridiculous.

Of particular disappointment among the opposition was from where I grew up. The City of Placentia, which along with Beverly Hills, were among seven NIMBY cities that went beyond the League of Cities general and reasonable state pre-emption concern. For those unfamiliar with Placentia--the womb of Orange County--there is a traditional barrio on the south side of the city neighboring Anaheim where you find the real food. Of course, El Farolito is where you go to sit down, but we all need sidewalk vendors for a bite on the run.

I love the chill in the air and wearing a hoodie as the sub prepares to rise. Thank you to the several of you who submitted suggestions to the Sofa Degree list. I'm going to need more bookshelves!

If you note above, the FiveThirtyEight model has had two seats move to from Toss-up to Lean Democrat. They are CA45 (Irvine-Walters) and CA48 (Huntington Beach-Rohrabacher). I already had CA48 as Leans Democrat, but am keeping CA45 as a Toss-up for now. We'll see how the next week plays out. 

KAVANAUGH: Well, it sounds like we're going to have a hearing on Monday, although I've heard from people on both sides of the political aisle who believe that there are already high level conversations about a Kavanaugh withdrawal and a subsequent nomination of Amy Coney Barrett. She was a top three and from the famed "Federalist Society" list and would remove the optics of the all-male GOP support and more diverse Democratic minority (one vote) on the committee. That said, some believe that Barrett is not confirmable and was the third choice within The White House, as her writings as a law professor provide a paper trail that would be unpalatable among the critical Senators Collins and Murkowski.

That said, it could be a potential disaster as new polls in Arizona (Open-Flake) and Tennessee (Blackburn) show those U.S. Senate seats in play, and with Democrats actually slightly favored. In Texas, Ted Cruz is slightly favored, but Beto O'Rourke is nipping at his heels.

POLL POSITION - CA39 (Fullerton): A Monmouth University poll out this morning finds Young Kim (R) with a 10-point lead over Gil Cisneros (D) among "normal midterm voters. Among a "Democratic surge" scenario, Kim maintains a 6-point lead. [n=300 standard likely/"Democratic surge" midterm voters; 9/13-9/16; live landline/cell; MOE +/- ~4.9%]

Why did I move the race from Toss-up to Leans Democrat based on one poll? First, it's the first non-partisan poll we've seen here and the methodology is legit. The only question is the sample that shows an overall job approval for President Trump of 47%-47% (among all registered voters, which seems high. 

Kim has a 9-point favorability lead (32%) over Cisneros, although 57%-53% have no opinion. Of the over voters sample, 49% are following the race "not too closely."

However, Democrat Gil Cisneros is being hammered by a Congressional Leadership Fund ad that details a sexual harassment allegation by a former unsuccessful Democratic primary candidate for Assembly that Cisneros invited himself into her hotel room and offered an exchange of an endorsement for sex. The allegation was made in an open letter by Melissa Fazil (D) who ran in the AD55 primary. Fazil came in third in the top-two to challenge Assemblymember Phillip Chen (R) on November 6.

Cisneros denies the allegation.

Nevertheless, in this environment, we have a "she said-he said" and I need not tell you that the #METOO discussion after a summer hiatus is extremely volatile. That is easily enough to push a Toss-up race to give the edge to the female Republican in the race.

A complete analysis, including the race dynamics--which play huge--here for Nooner Premium this afternoon. The cross-tabs are not yet available are important in looking at Asian and Latino voters in particular.

U.S. SENATE: With Kevin de León continuing to attack  Dianne Feinstein in her handling of the sexual assault complaint against SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh, state Capitol #METOO leaders took to Twitter to blast de León for his delay in handling the issue as Senate President Pro Tem. Further, there's ire that Feinstein's delay was because of the anonymity in the complaint. Christine Blasey Ford came forward only after media started narrowing it down and looking at her, upon which she authored came forward on Sunday to the WaPo. In the MercNews, Julia Prodis Sulek writes why Dr. Ford waited.

The Sacramento women were also very hesitant to come forward, fearing similar personal and professional costs.

Alicia Lewis tweets on de León:

"I REALLY wanted CA’s next US Sen. to be a Latino/a so I voted for in the primary. Now I’ll be supporting in Nov. It was bad enough KDL didn’t address the assualters & rapists in the CA Capitol, but the way he’s politicizing is just appalling."

"He’s so full of it. Victims had already been fired under his watch- BEFORE the movement. He dragged his feet on taking action against his roommate Mendoza. AND he still works with known harassers & assaulters. The overhaul was because Capitol women made it happen."

Ouch.

I certainly appreciate the women who came forward and continue to speak out, and the change in culture that it is creating (slowly).

They did when a victory yesterday when the governor signed into law SB 867 (Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review), which creates a new investigative unit in the Office of the Legislative Counsel to give advice on and to investigate workplace misconduct complaints. The bill provides $1.5 million to Leg Counsel and takes effect immediately. Not surprisingly, the bill passed unanimously.

This takes it away from the respective Rules committees of both houses and places it in the hands of the independent, nonpartisan and highly respected Counsel's office. I'm guessing most members on Rules are thankful to have investigations of colleagues and their staff off their lap. Capital Public Radio's Ben Adler reports on the gubernatorial action.

CA22 (Tulare): In the Fresno Bee, Rory Appleton reports on a mysterious event for Congressman Devin Nunes today in Sanger, which requires attendees to check a box agreeing to a personal search and that no pictures will be allowed (although "an official photographer will be available upon request.") It's billed as a "Meet and Greet" and not a fundraiser, and no $$$ amounts are listed.

EYE SPI: The big independent expenditure money kicked the quiet Superintendent of Public Instruction race up a notch yesterday, with education labor unions contributing another $2 million to the independent expenditure committee supporting Assemblymember Tony Thurmond against education reformer Marshall Tuck. The committee also reported buying $1.5 million in television ads, the first buy since the primary. 

DOING THE LAUNDRY: The good people of the Democratic Central Committee of Marin County spread gifts around yesterday:

  • AD16 (Tri-Valley): Rebecca Bauer-Kohen: $30,000
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): Christy Smith: $30,000
  • AD65 (Fullerton): Sharon Quirk-Silva: $40,000
  • AD74 (Irvine): Cottie Petrie-Norris: $25,000
  • AD77 (N. San Diego): Sunday Gover: $25,000 (note: I erred yesterday and put Gover in AD78--that's Todd Gloria)

The "good people of Marin" are mostly state unions and Tom Steyer's NextGen CA Committee. It's all in the game, yo'. I don't see any efforts to change Proposition 34 any time soon, so it's likely here to stay.

Meanwhile, the San Mateo County Democratic Central Committee sent $25,000 to Anna Caballero for her SD12 campaign against Robert Poythress (R).

 

advertisement

Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

IN-BOX FILLER: For those of you like me who enjoy KQED's Political Breakdown podcast, the team is now putting out a weekly newsletter. Sign up here and, also, support public radio and put in a comment that you are doing so to support State Capitol and political reporting! 

Speaking of public radio, our friend and KQED alum Tamara Keith made her first Sunday morning appearance last Sunday on "This Week" and did a great job. Keith is now a White House correspondent for NPR. They also have a politics podcast as well. They are short and daily, with a longer weekly roundup.

MONEY CAN'T BUY ME LOVE, BUT A NOONER TAG LINE MIGHT: Following yesterday's post from another this appeared on my door. Note that I don't endorse. #GAMEON

 Lisa Murawski

 

 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Sandy Goldfarb and a belated happy birthday (Saturday) to Don Singer, my friend who is running for re-election to the San Bernardino Community College Board! I almost missed the #CAKEDAY of California Medical Association CEO Dustin Corcoran, which was Friday. Dustin hasn't discovered Facebook yet, where honestly I get most of the birthdates. For the Nooner newbies, Dustin, Paul Mitche!! and I go back to Orange County days, when we fought over how late to stay up to put up signs. (For the record, I was the whiny early-bird.) And, yes Mitche!! is intentional, as you can guess why Paul Mitchell is taken across social media.

DEPT OF CORRECTIONS: Yes, I meant to type "pubic hair on a soda can" yesterday and not "public hair on a soda can" in reference to the Thomas hearings. Come to think of it, once it is separated from the human, doesn't it become a "public hair"?

I usually make the mistake in the reverse, which can be a much more embarrassing mistake.

 

advertisement


The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM