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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 8
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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E-50

DISTRICT UPDATES

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/11/2018 has Democrats+8.3.

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

No new polls today on generic ballot.

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 77.8% D, 22.2% R (Change from yesterday: D-0.6)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.8% D (Change from yesterday: D-0.1)
  • California delegation: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups

 

Happy Monday! Hope you had a great weekend. It sure was beautiful here in SacTown, and the week should be no different.

SPORTS PAGE: The, er, "home stretch" has arrived in Major League Baseball's regular season. The A's seem very likely to capture a wild card spot, while the Dodgers have two competitors--Colorado to win the west and, if not, St. Louis to grab the second NL wild cart spot. Tonight at 7:10, Colorado heads to Chavez Ravine to face the Dodgers, beginning a critical three-game series between the two teams. 

Good job, Niners. Sorry, Raiders fans, that was a tough loss. Most of you know that I am a Broncos fan. The Chargers face the Rams in Memorial Coliseum on Sunday.

Moving on to politics...

KAVANAUGH AND THE CALIFORNIA IMPACT: The next two weeks may be the most important in the entire election for several key California races. As I write, the Senate Judiciary Committee is still deciding whether to allow Palo Alto University professor Christine Blasey Ford to testify about her allegations of a sexual assault in high school by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Kavanaugh is at The White House.

Let me set one thing aside. There is a talking point that Dr. Ford shouldn't be trusted because she didn't come forward in the confirmation hearings. Remember, in our own Capitol community, we had a former assemblymember sue his accuser for defamation after she did. It's not just professional damage that is risked, but we have precedent that an alleged victim could be hit personally, even if it's just attorneys' fees. I don't know if the case has been dropped now that the Senate's independent investigators substantiated the allegations as more likely than not to have occurred. 

Trump Senior Advisor Kellyanne Conway says that testimony should be allowed. Republican Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley (R-IA) suggests that it should be done in private phone calls with Grassley, Dianne Feinstein, Dr. Ford and Kavanaugh. 

Politically speaking, damned if they do, damned if they don't. Of course, I personally believe they should and also allow Kavanaugh and any eyewitnesses to testify against the allegations. Ignore this "65 women letter." They were character witnesses, not actual witnesses.

When I was 18, Anita Hill took to the stand to testify with allegations against now-Justice Clarence Thomas. She alleged sexual harassment in a far-different social environment than we have today on that issue. Now, we have the possibility of testimony about sexual assault, going beyond a public hair on a soda can. While Thomas was seated on the Court, the next year became the Year of the Women, and those hearings (overseen by Democrat Joe Biden) were a big part of it.

We already know that women are a macro challenge for the Republican Party brand this year. Starting last year in Virginia and continuing this year, the gender gap is larger than it has been in years.

Why do I say damned if they do, damned if they don't?

Damned if they do because those supporting Kavanaugh are 10 older white men, plus Jeff Flake, who probably can be considered wavering at this point (he's also the 11th vote likely needed to pass the nomination out of committee). On the Democrats side, you have ranking member Dianne Feinstein, of whom Christine Blasey Ford is a constituent. You also have Kamala Harris, of whom Ford is a constituent. The rest of the Democrats are five white men, an Asian-American and an African-American (in addition to Harris, who is both). The final Democrat is a white woman, Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

Notably, the "phone call" option proposed by Grassley would keep former prosecutor Harris and Yale attorney Cory Booker (D-NY) out of the questioning.  

For those who are my age or older, you remember the Anita Hill hearings. They were all over television. This was before the Internet as we know it today. The optics of the questioning of Ford would be ugly for Republicans and friendly for Democrats. We've already seen the early hearings, where Democrats largely marked their trees. Of the Democrats on Senate Judiciary Committee up for election this year (Feinstein, Klobuchar, and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), none are vulnerable this year.

Feinstein is the only one with a somewhat serious challenge, and she can only go left in these hearings to help her in California.

So, damned if the don't are also the optics. Envision this diverse group of ten Senate Judiciary Democrats standing on the Capitol steps talking about the unwillingness of the majority--all white men--not allowing the testimony. 

The most persuadable voters that might be motivated on this issue are primarily 18-45 year-old college-educated white independent women. But, that's true on most things this cycle.

I write about California impacts. First, Feinstein is helped on this issue, as her biggest vulnerability in her face-off against State Senator Kevin de León is that she's (use every euphemism for old) out-of-touch. As this story pans out, her seniority is front-and-senator and, with a chance (33.9% by FiveThirtyEight), she would be chair of Judish. I love de León, but these hearings are essentially game-set-match (unless Feinstein breaks her racket).

Let's move on to Congress. We have ten plausibly competitive congressional races in California, all held by Republicans.

 

DistrictIncumbentChallenger(s)ATC RatingNet Impact*
CA04 (Foothills) Tom McClintock (R) Jessica Morse (D) Leans Republican Minor
CA10 (Stanislaus) Jeff Denham (R)  Josh Harder (D) Toss-up Minor
CA21 (Fresno/Bakersfield) David Valadao (R) TJ Cox (D) Leans Republican Minor
CA22 (Tulare) Devin Nunes (R) Andrew Janz (D) Leans Republican Moderate (GOP leadership)
CA25 (Santa Clarita/ Antelope Vly) Steve Knight (R) Katie Hill (D) Leans D Significant
CA39 (Fullerton) None (Royce-R) Gil Cisneros (D)
Young Kim (R)
Toss-up None
CA45 (Irvine) Mimi Walters (R) Katie Porter (D) Toss-up Moderate (D is a law professor)
CA48 (Huntington Beach) Dana Rohrabacher (R) Harley Rouda (D) Leans D None
CA49 (Oceanside) None (Issa-R) Diane Harkey (R)
Mike Levin (D)
Leans D None (Levin, an attorney, used "clean energy advocate" as a ballot designation)
CA50 (E. San Diego County) Duncan Hunter (R) Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) Leans R Moderate (Hunter's indictment alleges marital indiscretions paid for by campaign funds; diversity)
     
*Impact = This is the impact only on the issue of the Kavanaugh hearings. Many other factors will come into play.

 

On state races, I don't know the impact, unless it propels women to vote who otherwise would not. And, of course, we just don't have as many volatile races at the state level. Here's where you could see an impact. Unlike congressional impact, I don't think the Kavanaugh hearings will be decisive unless we start at a 1-2% gap in each race. Of course, we don't have reliable polling on most of these.

  • Lieutenant Governor: State Senator Ed Hernandez (D) v. Eleni Kounalakis Tsakapolous (D) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Eleni
  • SD22 (San Gabriel Valley): Mike Eng (D) v. Susan Rubio (D) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Rubio
  • AD38 (Santa Clarita): Dante Acosta* (R) v. Christy Smith (D) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Smith
  • AD60 (Corona): Sabrina Cervantes* (D) v. Bill Essayli (R) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters would likely help Cervantes
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): Tyler Diep (R) v. Josh Lowenthal (D)  - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Lowenthal
  • AD74 (Irvine): Cottie Petrie-Norris (D) v. Matthew Harper* (R) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Norris
  • AD78 (N. San Diego): Sunday Gover (D) v. Brian Maienschein* (R) - increased turnout of otherwise iffy female voters could help Gover

* = incumbent 

In California, 434,013 voters in Madera, Napa, Nevada, Sacramento and San Mateo county will be receiving their ballots under the Voters Choice Act October 10-11 and can register and vote in voting centers (conditional registration) beginning October 9. That's fifteen business days from now. Of the races listed above, only CA04 (Foothills) has a Voters Choice County--Madera and it's an insignificant share of the district (3.7%) and is heavily Republican.

Nevertheless, candidates need to remember that crunch time is accelerated--it's no longer the last couple of weeks of October.

GOV: For the Chron, Joe Garafoli writes that gubernatorial candidates John Cox (R) and Gavin Newsom (D) are far apart on many environmental issues. "Gavin Newsom and John Cox both drive zero-emission Teslas. That’s about where the common ground ends between California’s candidates for governor when it comes to the environment."

GOV: Carla Marinucci reports for Politico that Gavin Newsom is looking to expand on the Democratic strongholds to build the base against the Trump Administration. This primarily involves electing Democrats in GOP areas as we have seen him promoting over his bus trip across the state.  

MONEY CAN'T BY ME LOVE, BUT A NOONER TAG LINE MIGHT: Note the personalization on this walk piece from Senate Approps consultant Lisa Murawski which showed up on my door yesterday:

 Lisa Murawski

 

Below the jump...changes to the Sofa Degree!  

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

SOFA DEGREE: I haven't revisited the Sofa Degree in a while and remembered that when I wrote about the new book on the Brown family last week and recognizing that some on policy rather than history have become outdated.

 

THE SOFA DEGREE IN CALIFORNIA POLITICS AND POLICY:

Which Top 30 books would you read to get a university-quality education that would prepare you for a career in California politics or policy?

NOONER readers were asked, and this is what we came up with. The list is constantly evolving, as some are added and others are deleted. Feel free to weigh in.

Suggest more books

 

 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CONGRATS: Taryn Luna is moving from The Sacramento Bee to the Capitol Bureau of the Los Angeles Times early next month.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblymembers Ed Chau, Tim Grayson, and Sharon Quirk-Silva, as well as Julie Phillips, and Jessie Ryan!

 

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The Political Centrist in the Time of Trump Trailer

THE POLITICAL CENTRIST IN THE TIME OF TRUMP documentary asks, why are our politics so angry, polarized, partisan, biased, petty, perturbed, sexist, uncompromising and fraught with financial paybacks?
View for free on Amazon Prime.

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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