If you don't see images in this message, click "Display Images" or the equivalent.
Having trouble viewing this email? Click here
Receive this as a forward? Get the Nooner in your e-mail box.

Become a Nooner Premium subscriber to access exclusive election analysis and back end data. | Follow @scottlay

Advertise in The Nooner to reach over 8,000 readers

 

REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

advertisement

We Stand With Seniors

reserve this space

 

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 8
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

advertisement


Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

E-51

DISTRICT UPDATES

No race outlook changes this week, as the only relevant poll has been Quinnipiac and it was just on the President and used self-identified registered voters. 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/11/2018 has Democrats+8.3.

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 78.5% D, 21.5% R (Change from yesterday: D+0.3)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • Popular vote margin: +8.9% D (Change from yesterday: no change)
  • California delegation: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups

 

Happy Sunday! We have a week before fall officially arrives, although we've borrowed its weather a bit early.

It was a great evening last night as thousands gathered at the Capitol to hear the Consulado General de Mexíco read El Grito de Delores from the Capitol's west balcony. Hours of bands and dancing entertained thousands, and the party continued after I left after El Grito as traditional Mexican music turned to modern Mexican rock. The event was not political, with the only sign of politics being a booth for voter registration by the non-partisan California Endowment. And, speakers recurrently said ¡Viva Mexíco! ¡Viva Estados Unidos! ¡Viva California! ¡Viva Sacramento!  

Today, a separate celebration takes place at Southside Park from 11am-6pm with a broader Latin independence theme in a free event of food, music, dancing and classic cars.

IRONY: The Dodgers might end up in the playoffs because the Giants woke up from their coma, and it just happened to be against the Rockies. D-ROD takes to the mound for the Giants at 1:05pm. Tough sports morning for NorCal--Giants and Niners at 1:05 and Raiders at 1:25 (Go Broncos!).

CLIMATE: John Myers reports in the Los Angeles Times that many of most interesting discussions in San Francisco at the Global Climate Action summit this week were in closed-door meetings that leaders from around the world had with Governor Jerry Brown.  

Brown bristled at the accusations [of critics protesting that he hasn't done enough], insisting that environmental policy is still constrained by what’s politically possible.

“Without a doubt, California has the most aggressive green energy plans in the Western Hemisphere,” he said on Thursday. “In the world of dreams, you can do a lot of things. In the world of practicality, there’s a way it works.”

JOHN'S PEN: For his Sunday column, John Myers writes the story of how Proposition 11 landed on the ballot. It goes back to a 2016 California Supreme Court case--Augustus et al. v. ABM Security Services, Inc., which concluded that companies could not keep employees "on-call" during state-mandated meal breaks. That was a particular blow to private ambulance companies--particularly the behemoth American Medical Response (AMR), which has contracts with cities and counties to provide services.

In 2017, labor proposed that the Legislature to make changes for emergency service ambulance employees, knowing that it was difficult to implement the case for AMR, particularly in small towns with only one rig. Labor wanted that any break in time of a break be added at a premium pay rate. That was the sticking point and, thus, the Legislature did not act--the bill was parked by leadership.

The original case decided the case based on a private security company. The initiative only applies to emergency services ambulance employees, and AMR might get a pass since it only applies to such. As I wrote yesterday, no committee in opposition has been formed yet. 

BROWN'S COSTLY CLIMATE GOAL: For CALmatters, Dan Walters writes about the governor's carbon-neutral goal: "The auto dilemma illustrates the conundrum posed by Brown’s efforts to make California a carbon-neutral state. Although polls, including a new one from the Public Policy Institute of California, indicate that Californians support carbon reduction in principle, they’ve not been fully told what it would take to reach the goal, or what financial sacrifices they would bear to reach it."

Meanwhile, on Nextdoor.com, neighbors are fighting over the color of Jump bikes. Ummm...as a rider, I really don't want them to "blend in with the landscape," and I'm guessing drivers don't want that either.

CA04 (Foothills): I'm seeing Jessica Morse's (D) new ad in heavy rotation but nothing from Congressman Tom McClintock (R). I'm seeing pro-Josh Harder and anti-Harder in CA10. I try to time-shift an vary channels. Let me know if I'm just missing McClintock's. 

CA22 (Tulare): Congressman Devin Nunes said this week that he intends to release 70 documents from the House Intelligence Committee on its Russia investigation. This is an issue that challenger Andrew Janz (D) has been hitting Nunes on, and which Intel Ranking Member Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) has been calling for.

If Nunes releases it, I would likely move it from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Of course, that could change if Schiff goes on the record saying that non-classified documents were omitted. I haven't seen any polls on this, but I'm guessing that Schiff has very high favorables among indies. 

CA50 (East SD County): While in a lull in legal proceedings that likely won't end until after the election, the SDUT's Andrew Dyer reports that veterans are conflicted in the race of Duncan Hunter, Jr., who is being challenged by Ammar Campa-Najjar (D). Beyond the normal partisan divide, the allegations for campaign finance fraud and other felonies include fraudulent claims that purchased items were for "wounded warriors" and included a profane slander of the U.S. Navy, after the force denied a request for a tour that would have allowed him to claim the family trip as official business. He charged it to the campaign instead.

We need a more polling data for this district!

TRONC: In the Chicago Tribune, Robert Channick reports that McClatchy is in "early discussions" to buy Tronc. Tronc recently sold the Los Angeles Times, San Diego Union-Tribune, and several community papers to physician and entrepreneur Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong., generally to relief to the staff of the California newspapers. The discussions come as a surprise to Sacramento Bee current and former employees after the paper has had layoffs over the past couple of years. Former Sac Bee arts and culture writer Ed Fletcher was one laid off earlier this year tweets "I didn’t think McClatchy could afford to buy a toaster."

McClatchy's market cap is currently $68 million, while Tronc's (which stands to Tribune Online Content) has a market cap of $572 million. The balance sheets are basically the same, so this would likely be a leveraged buyout and can't be seen as a good thing for the people of the dozens of papers involved. 

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez Fletcher, Nick Pappas, and Chris Rogers!

#DEPTOFCORRECTIONS: The emergency ambulance lunch break initiative is Proposition 11, nor Proposition 8. 

 

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM