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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 8
      - Dems pick up 4 Leaners in Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • CA10 (Merced): changed from Toss-up to Leans Democrat
  • AD60 (Corona): updated analysis (available to Nooner Premium subscribers)

E-52

Happy Saturday! The Aggies are playing Stanford right now. Ags got an interception and put the first points on the board with a field goal.

Tonight is El Grito de Dolores, the eve of Mexican Independence Day. In Sacramento, El Grito will be read from the balcony above the Capitol's west steps. The event, which will have food, is from 5-9pm. Tomorrow from 11am-6pm is Latin Independence Festival: Fiesta en el Calle in Southside Park. It's free and will have food, music, dancing, and the classic car show.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/11/2018 has Democrats+8.3.

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 78.2% D, 21.8% R (D+0.2)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R
  • Popular vote margin: +8.9% D (D-0.2)
  • California delegation: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups

 

GUBER ACTION UPDATE, from our friend lobbyist Chris Micheli:

  • SIGNED: 424
  • VETOED: 23
  • Allowed to become law w/o his signature: 0
  • TOTAL BILLS: 447
  • Veto rate: 5%
  • Total number of bills remaining on Governor’s Desk as of COB on 9/14: 770
  • Governor has 16 days to act on the remaining bills (about 48 bills per day).

Bills signed yesterday.

MOONBEAM! Press were told to be prepared for a significant announcement from Governor Jerry Brown to close the Global Climate Access Summit in San Francisco yesterday. Well, it at the closing session yesterday--and it was the return of a previous mentioned idea--a greenhouse monitoring "own damn" satellite sponsored by the state. However, state funding would not be provided, rather two foundations have stepped up to get the idea off the ground.

The satellite would be provisioned by San Francisco-based earth imaging company Planet Labs, with the planned launch in 2019 with the first data available in 2020. The data would be available in the public domain for academic researchers and other interested parties. The goal is to better identify source greenhouse gas emissions.

It only took 42 years to get from Moonbeam I to Moonbeam II, but this is a much bigger effort with lots of key supporters. Add to that the political middle finger to The White House as Brown heads to Colusa...

US SENATE: McClatchy's Emily Cadei and Kate Irby report that the race between Kevin de León and Senator Dianne Feinstein increased in intensity yesterday as de León criticized Feinstein's handling of the letter accusing Supreme Court nominee Bret Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct during high school.

PROP 8 (Private ambulance employees: lunch hour): Big money came in yesterday from private-ambulance company American Medical Response (AMR) with $5 million in support of the measure that would require private ambulance employees to be on call through their lunch hour. They will likely have lots of television ads talking about wait times. While opposed by labor and the Democratic Party, no committee has been formed in opposition. The employees of AMR are generally members of small AFSCME locals.

PROP 10 (Rent control): Settling on old score perhaps, the Pharmaceutical Researchers and Manufacturing Association (PhRMA) yesterday gave $50,000 to the committee against the ballot measure to allow local communities to enact rent control measures (repeal of Costa-Hawkins). Why do pharmaceutical companies care about rent control? The lead proponent on the is Los Angeles based AIDS Healthcare Foundation and its controversial CEO Michael Weinstein, which sought passage of a pharmaceutical price controls measure in 2016.

The Foundation operates a huge mail-order pharmacy and had revenues of over $1 billion in 2016 and Weinstein made $421,672. Pharmaceutical companies and other opponents spent $110 million to defeat Prop. 61.

JANITORS MARCH FOR #METOO: A 100-mile march from San Francisco culminated at the State Capitol yesterday, reports Nadine Sedai for Capital Public Radio. They want mandatory sexual harassment training for all supervisory and peer-training employees at employers with 5 or employees, which is called for a bill on the governor's desk--AB 2079 (Gonzalez Fletcher). The Chamber of Commerce is opposed with concerns about litigation costs.

There's an alternative bill that cover all employers, SB 1343 (Mitchell), which has no documented opposition.

DRUG COURTS: Pauline Repard reports in the Union-Tribune that drug courts are seeing a decline following the implementation of Proposition 47, which reduced certain drug crimes from felonies to misdemeanors. The reason? Some offenders will take a few months of county jail rather than an 18-month court-supervised drug rehab program. "The numbers appear to be significant, if not alarming. The Probation Department tracked a dip from 408 cases in November 2014, the month Proposition 47 was passed, to 390 a year later, a decrease of a little more than 4 percent."

MOUSE EARS: In the Times, Hugo Martin looks at the continued debate over Anaheim's Measure L, which would require large hospitality companies that receive tax rebates from the city to pay employees a livable wage. The issue is whether it would apply to Disneyland, which benefitted from a 1996 deal to construct a six-story parking garage, paid for by a city-issued bond. The $335 million bond is paid off with parking proceeds, as well as some of the hotel occupancy tax revenues around the Resort. 

Recently, Anaheim cancelled two tax rebates, seeking to ensure Measure L wouldn't apply to the city's largest employer. The city owns the garage, but plans to transfer ownership when the bonds are paid off sometime around 2026. So, is it a subsidy or is it not? Lawyers will certainly being fighting over it, as Disneyland Reports constitute a majority of union UNITE-HERE members in Anaheim.

AB 1577 (Gipson): In the LA Times, Angel Jennings reports on the gut-and-amend bill that would eliminate the Sativa-Los Angeles County Water Board in Compton, and shift the water agency to supervision of State Water Control Board. The bill, which is sitting on the governor's desk with no "nay" votes throughout the legislative process. The City of Compton and the Los Angeles LAFCO, and the Los Angeles Board of Supervisors all supported it. No opposition was officially registered. Local leaders allege that the agency doesn't have sufficient resources to tackle deferred maintenance needs, and there have been allegations of water quality issue.

Water quality appears to be a real problem in Compton, Willowbank, and unincorporated Los Angeles County served by Sativa.

While the small agency's five directors receive only nominal compensation, they do receive benefits, including CalPERS benefits. That's likely what's stuck in their craw. The agency has 14 employees, according to State Controller's Office. 

There's another issue. Compton has undergone significant demographic changes from African-American to Latino. All five directors are now Latino. I'm not saying that's the reason for the bill, but there is less resistance of changing the historic patronage for these small little offices now. 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to A.G. Block, Blanca Rubio, Tamara Torlakson, and Dan Weitzman!

 

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

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