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BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 42 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 3 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 8
      - Dems pick up 3 in Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 55-57 Democrats
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/29-9/11/2018 has Democrats+8.3.

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 78.0% D, 22.0% R (D-0.5)
  • House seats: 230 D, 205 R
  • Popular vote margin: +8.9% D (D-0.2)
  • California delegation: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups

 

Happy Friday! You made it! 

EAR TICKLES: For KQED's Political Breakdown podcast, Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos sit down with Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins. On today's Forum in the 10am hour, Shafer hosted Miriam Powel, the author of "The Browns of California." Before that, he hosted Controller Betty Yee and her challenger, Konstantinos Roditi. Also, out is the CALmatters/LAT Gimme Shelter podcast, where Matt Levin and Liam Dillon talk about the end of session housing issues...

At the Global Climate Action Summit yesterday, Jerry Brown and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg called on the Trump Administration to double greenhouse gas emissions, reports Ezra David Romero for Capital Public Radio. 

The Trump administration has vowed to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement.

“That’s a major assault on the well-being of the people of California, and America, and the world. It borders not only on insanity, but criminality,” Brown said.

Evan Halper writes for the Los Angeles Times. "It was equal parts theater, venting session and business meeting where stuff got done." In the Bee, Alexei Koseff writes that Jerry Brown signed several environmental bills yesterday will riding in a plug-in hybrid ferry in San Francisco Bay.

For CALmatters, Julie Cart reports on the summit discussion on increasing electric vehicles in the state. California Air Board chairwoman Mary "Nichols has acknowledged that that squeezing emissions from transportation will be the most difficult lift of all the state’s near-term climate goals, saying the gains require no less than a “deep transformation.”

Politico's David Siders looks at why Democrats have a hard time getting their base excited about climate change.

GOV: John Cox picked up the endorsement of San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer this morning. Faulconer was the choice to run by many GOP insiders.

DOING THE LAUNDRY:  SD14 candidate Melissa Hurtado picked up $50,000 each from the Humboldt and Napa County Democratic Central Committees for campaign against Senator Andy Vidak. Anna Caballero got $25,000 each from Humboldt and Napa for her campaign against Robert Poythress in SD12Rebecca Bauer-Kahan cashed $50,000 from Sonoma County Democratic Central Committee for her challenge to Catharine Baker in AD16. Tom Umberg received $25,000 from Napa for his SD34 bid against Janet Nguyen.

The California Republican Party sent Dante Acosta (AD38) $31,000, $56,000 to Frank Scotto (AD66), $100,000 to Justin Mendes (AD32), and $50,000 to Robert Poythress (SD14).

The Irvine Company gave the California Republican Party $500,000, bringing its total to $2.25 million for the year.  

PROP 6 (Gas tax repeal): Joel Fox writes about the divide within the business community on the repeal of the gas tax. The California Chamber of Commerce is opposed to the measure, the National Federation of Independent Business is in support, while the California Business Roundtable is neutral.

TOP-TWO: Ben Christopher writes for CALmatters that political insiders are "meh" on the top-two primary, based on a poll of Target Book readers.

H2O: In the Bee, Kate Irby writes that money for water storage could be on its way to California with action in Congress. 

AD72 (Seal Beach): Orange County prosecutors found no misdeeds in investigating allegations that Tyler Diep's campaign for Assembly arranged a decoy candidate for the June primary, reports Jordan Graham in the Orange County Register.

LAX: CALPERS hired a CEO that didn't have a college degree, reports Adam Ashton in the Bee. "Marcie Frost did not claim to have a college degree when she applied to lead the California Public Employees’ Retirement System in 2016. She emphasized it in blue ink, writing “not degreed yet” in a box that asked about her education."

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Assemblymember Travis AllenDavid Bella-Hawkins, Luis CorreaBernice CreagerGordon HinkleMatt KlopfensteinRay LeBov, and Omega Williams!

 

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Gov. Jerry Brown, Michael Bloomberg Challenge Trump Administration On Climate Change, Paris Climate Agreement Goals
Ezra David Romero @
capradio.org
California Gov. Jerry Brown and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg want the United States to double its current greenhouse-gas emission reductions.

On Politics: Paul Manafort Is Said to Be Near a Plea Deal

President Trump's former campaign chairman is close to a plea agreement with federal prosecutors, people familiar with the case said.

At Jerry Brown's Climate Summit, A Lot Of Drama And A Measure Of Momentum
Evan Halper @
latimes.com
It was equal parts theater, venting session and business meeting where stuff got done. Gov. Jerry Brown's climate summit Thursday reflected the scope of the challenges that participants have before them.

Congress Clears First Fiscal 2019 Spending Package - Politico
POLITICO STAFF @

The House has agreed 377-20 to send President Donald Trump a three-bill package that would fund the departments of Energy and Veterans Affairs, as well as congressional operations, water projects and military construction for fiscal 2019.