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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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EAR TICKLER: On the KQED Political Breakdown Podcast, Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos talk to California Supreme Court Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye about the SCOTUS confirmation hearings, bail reform, and the continued vacancy on the state's high court.

As always, I have to express my adoration of Cantil-Sakuye, a community college->UCD->UCD Law graduate!

 

DISTRICT UPDATES:

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 42 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 3 toss-ups
      - Dems hold 39; Reps hold 8
      - Dems pick up 3 in Knight (CA25)Rohrabacher (CA48), and Open/Issa (CA49)
      - Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats, 23-21 Republicans
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


For Nooner Premium subscribers, the chart of my ratings and those of five others has been updated on the subscribers page.

 

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Vote YES on SB 1017

 

DAILY GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT: The current Real Clear Politics generic congressional ballot average of polls from 8/23-9/04/2018 has Democrats+8.3. (Change D-0.2).

In the same period in 2014, Republicans had an edge of +2.4. 

DAILY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM PROJECTION UPDATE:

  • House control: 72.6% D, 27.4% R
  • House seats: 228 D, 207 R
  • Popular vote margin: +8.1% D
  • California delegation: 43 Democrats, 8 Republicans, 2 toss-ups

 

ASTROTURF AT BEST, FALSIFIED AT WORST: Since I wrote about the unusual array of nonprofit groups that weighed in on behalf of the wildfire bill that helped PG&E and labor and many of which coincidentally also opposed the net neutrality bill, I've heard from several of them that claimed that those were not positions of the organizations.

I tried to create an easy listing of support and opposition of each bill, but formatting was just ugly because it's coming from a PDF. But, you can find both the final support and opposition lists on the following Senate Floor analyses: SB 822 (Wiener and de León) | SB 901 (Dodd).

Both claim verification of positions of listed organizations "verified" on 08/29 for SB 822, which passed the next day. For SB 901, "verification" is listed as of 08/30, the day before it had final passed. 

I don't want to blame the overworked staff charged with pulling together analysis and organizational positions on very complicated legislation. Dozens of these organizations are small, have no lobbyists, and couldn't have had board meetings to take positions on the final versions of the bills. I don't think the organizations provided power of attorney to weigh in on legislation or have bylaws that allow positions to be taken without some deliberation. 

Try getting most legislative staffers to explain securitization of yet-to-be-calculated 2017 wildfire claims with ratepayer recovery to a nonprofit board focused on specialty community chambers of commerce and small nonprofits.

When I was President/CEO of the Community College League, I don't know that I could explain it to my boards given all of the other issues we dealt with at the end of session. The same is true of the pros and cons of the final version of net neutrality that was adopted one week before passage. Both as a lobbyist and organization CEO, I had to explain why staff advocated for bills after amendments, based on previous positions taken. 

We're not talking about prior position precedent in these cases.

I don't take positions on bills these days. But, I do raise a flag when something seems fishy. Again, these organizations don't have lobbyists. Somebody was speaking for them. The question is whom? And, shouldn't that be only listed on official analysis if there is a signed letter from the organization, unless a lobbyist is registered to represent the organization?

In the end, most of the organizations listed on these strange lists won on SB 901 (wildfires) and lost on SB 822 (net neutrality).

It all just leaves a bad taste in my mouth--win or lose.

FOLLOW THE MONEY: The California Democratic Party picked up $800,000 from the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare West and $333,333 from the California State Pipe Trades Council.

DOING THE LAUNDRY:

  • The San Diego County Democratic Party has sent $40,000 to Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi (D), who is facing off against businessman and former Torrance Councilman Frank Sciutto (R) in AD66. Muratsuchi should be save, but this has been a yo-yo district over the last decade.
  • The California Republican Party has sent SD12 candidate Rob Poythress $100,000, as he faces off against Assemblymember Anna Caballero (D) in a possibly decisive race for Democrats seeking a supermajority. 

EYE SPI: San Francisco investor Arthur Rock has chipped in $1 million to PAC of EdVoice, the nonprofit that advocates reform in public schools, joining recent large contributions from former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan, businessman Bill Bloomfield, and homebuilder-turned-philanthropist Eli Broad. The money is likely headed toward to the independent expenditure campaign of Marshall Tuck for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

DA BAIL BUSINESS: The Lexington National Insurance Corporation reports that it reports $401,116.36 to the committee opened for the referendum against SB 10 (Hertzberg), the bill which would replace money bail with a system of pre-trial risk assessment. That's an odd number, so I'm guessing it's an in-kind contribution to launch the effort. The company's tagline is "Built By Bondsmen For Bondsmen."

Local bond agents that have the "Open 24/7" neon lights on many city streets around jails and courthouses are often akin to an insurance agent. They underwrite the immediate cash for release, generally 10% of the court's bond amount for release. That's a non-refundable insurance fee is used to buy the insurance from a company like Lexington, with the remainder used for operations and profit.

The referendum will be interesting simply from the standpoint of where the money comes from to overturn the controversial bill in an industry with which few people are familiar. 

CA48 (Huntington Beach): In the New York Times, Jessica Medina looks at the challenge to Congressman Dana Rohrabacher by real estate executive Harley Rouda (D):

"The contest has become one of the most closely watched political fights in the country and Democrats see defeating the eight-term incumbent as one of their top priorities. It also demonstrates just how much has changed in Orange County, which less than a generation ago was solidly Republican. Mr. Rouda has capitalized on the shifts by denouncing Mr. Rohrabacher at every turn and now must use the remaining time before the election to convince voters that he is just like many of them: a former Republican who believes the party has abandoned moderate views."

 

More after the jump...

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: Lobbying Seminars with veteran Ray LeBov: Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels 

 

 

SUGAR-SWEETENED BEVERAGES: After several successful defeats by the beverage industry and associates, the Secretary of State has cleared an initiative for signature gathering for the November 2020 ballot that would impose a tax of $0.02/oz on sugar-sweetened beverages. The Legislative Analyst's Office estimates that the tax would raise $2-3 billion annually, which the proceeds from would be dedicated to health-related programs. The measure is sponsored by the California Medical Association and the California Dental Association.

The measure also includes a constitutional amendment to allow local governments to levy similar taxes. This overturns a deal made between several parties, including the beverage industry earlier this year in SB 872 (Committee on Budget and Fiscal Review). The bill pre-empted the imposition by local governments of taxes on "groceries," including sugar-sweetened beverages.  

That legislative deal was to get the California Business Roundtable to drop an initiative that would have broadened the requirement of two-thirds voter approval for local governments to approve taxes, including sugar-sweetened beverage taxes. Shortly after the bill was signed, the medical and dental associations announced they would go to the ballot. 

As Dr. Abigail Bartlet said in one of the best The West Wing episodes, "Game on, homeboy."

THE 916: The family of unarmed black youth Stephon Clark  is seeking "in excess of $15 million" in wrongful death damages over the March 18 shooting by two Sacramento Police Department officers, reports Nick Miller for Capitol Public Radio.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Robyn Boyer, Melanie Cuevas, Mandy Lee, and Arthur Valenzuela!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • WE CAN HELP MAKE YOUR LOBBYING EFFORTS MORE EFFECTIVE. Numerous nonprofits and private sector organizations, lobbying firms, trade associations and government entities use Capitol Seminars as their No.1 training resource -- for new lobbyists, support staff, executives who hire and manage lobbyists. Conducted by 43-year Capitol veteran Ray LeBov, our Lobbying 101 & 201 seminars provide comprehensive coverage of the Legislative process, plus best practices for Legislative, Budget, and Regulatory Agency advocacy, Lobbying the Administration, and Media Strategies. You’ll find the extensive curriculum materials valuable long after the seminars are over. Next dates: October 4-5, December 13-14, February 7-8. More info / registration: www.capitolseminars.net or 916-442-5009.
  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.
    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Former UC Irvine Vice Chancellor Committed Sex Discrimination By Paying Women Less Than Men, Review Finds
Teresa Watanabe @
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A former UC Irvine vice chancellor touted for promoting equity and diversity committed sex discrimination by paying three women less than men for the same or similar work, a campus review found. Thomas A. Parham, who denies wrongdoing, now serves as president of Cal State Dominguez Hills.

Pence To Hit 3 Democratic Senate Candidates In Tv Ad Buy - Politico

Vice President Mike Pence has crisscrossed the country for Republican candidates in recent months, holding dozens of fundraisers and campaign events. | Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

How Eight Elite San Francisco Families Funded Gavin Newsom’s Political Ascent
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San Francisco’s wealthiest have supported Newsom for decades, spending big on his political career since his earliest days in public office.

Former President Obama to warn of voter apathy ahead of the November elections

A speech delivered in Illinois will be his first act in a wide-ranging effort to turn out Democrats for the midterm elections--without energizing Republicans.

New Documents Released About Kavanaugh, But Trump's High Court Pick Is On Track For Confirmation
Jennifer Haberkorn, David G. Savage, Sarah D. Wire @
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The clash over documents dominates the start of Day 3 of the Supreme Court confirmation hearing.

Watergate Figure John Dean Calls Kavanaugh Nomination 'troubling' - Politico

Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh will sit Friday for his fourth and final day of confirmation hearings before the Senate Judiciary Committee.