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DISTRICT UPDATE(S):

BALANCE OF POWER: 

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 40 Democrats, 9 Republicans, 5 toss-ups
      - Hold of 39, pick-up in Open/Issa CA49; Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25), Rohrabacher (CA48), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats, 23-21 Republicans
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).

 Congressional delegation outlook

 

 

Happy humpday to you. It's all downhill from here...for good and bad. Cray-cray morning of writing and listening to committees and floor sessions. Here is this morning's picture of the 2017-18 Legislature with Governor Jerry Brown (click to enlarge):

Legislature with Governor Jerry Brown

THE DEADLINE: From lobbyist Chris Micheli:

"By my count, there are 18 bills that were amended yesterday, the final day for amendments under Prop. 54 to be considered by this Friday’s midnight adjournment date (with exceptions for urgency clauses, tax levies, etc.). Of the 18 total measures, there are 7 SBs and 11 ABs for consideration. On the attached chart, the bills are listed along with the time the amendments went into print and can therefore be considered after that time on the other house’s floor. I also put them in time order."

SB 901 (Dodd): The two-house conference committee on wildfire prevention and response came to a conclusion last night with a signed conference report that readies the proposal for a floor vote this Friday. However, as critics of the final language start lobbying members against the final bill, passage is not certain, even if the bill only requires a simple majority.

In testimony on the final package, ratepayers, particularly those of big industries such as agriculture, manufacturers, and oil production and refining, opposed the "solution" in the bill that would allow utilities--primarily PG&E--to borrow money on the private market that is "securitized" by PUC-approved rate "surcharges." That long-term borrowing with a dedicated revenue stream lowers the borrowing cost for PG&E on what could be several billion dollars. Some opponents call it a "bailout"--a "third rail" word. 

A representative from The Utility Reform Network (TURN) joined the opposition on behalf of individual ratepayers, which was echoed by a press release by the organization today with the subject line "Bailout Worth Billions Approved for PG&E." TURN reported 83.4% of its $6,328,354 revenues in 2017 from reimbursement of attorneys fees. The organization does good work, but is essentially a nonprofit public interest law firm focused on regulated utilities. That isn't a negative as similar groups are responsible to a lot of the civil rights work over the years.

For KQED, Guy Marzorati and Marisa Lagos report:

[The compromise is] aimed at both protecting utility ratepayers from footing the bill for billions of dollars in damage caused by electrical equipment -- and ensuring that PG&E and other utilities don't go bankrupt.

It would do that by letting PG&E issue bonds to pay for damage caused by last year's North Bay wildfires while creating a commission to weigh utility liability in fires that started this year.

Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas & Electric (both owned by Sempra Energy) and many publicly owned utilities also don't like the final language. Many feel like they invested more on the front end for fire prevention while PG&E was paying out dividends to shareholders. Now, they believe, PG&E is going to recoup costs of not preparing, while they can't recoup their prevention investment.

Victims and insurance companies like the final package, as it provides hope for cost recovery even while liability for last October's Tubbs Fire is still being determined. That fire in Lake, Napa, and Sonoma counties destroyed 5,636 structures, with the largest destruction in Santa Rosa.

The testimony was in quite contrast to Monday night's, when there was a parade of PG&E supporters weighing in on behalf of the language at the time. These were mostly specialty chambers of commerce that generally represent small businesses, and which are also generously supported by PG&E.

PG&E has strategically taken a restrained approach in public testimony, spending time on private lobbying and television and radio commercials. Instead, the face of PG&E is its workers, many represented by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. Both PG&E and IBEW know that the overwhelmingly Democratic Legislature will be far more influenced by union workers than shareholders. About 84% of PCG (PG&E) stock is held by institutional shareholders, most of which are mutual funds. Most of you reading this likely are shareholders whether you know it or not, and many of you are ratepayers as well.

There is no simple winners and losers chart. 

As supporters and opponents don their walking shoes for two days of heavy lobbying ahead of Friday's vote, it is anybody's guess. Lawmakers in PG&E territory don't want to be seen as pushing the utility into bankruptcy. However, they are wary of consumer outrage when the surcharge is added after an unspecified amound of bonds at an uncertain interest rates are sold. If the utilities dividend returns any time during the period of the surcharge, the politics could be ugly. That said, investor-owned utilities are equity stocks and dividends are their lifeblood of maintaining a stock price. 

PG&E will have its lobbying force out in full and will be talking the other third-rail B word--"bankruptcy." That's a big threat to employees and shareholders, as well as to the commitments PG&E has made to carbon reduction in electricity generation as part of the state's overall climate plan. That will be particularly persuasive to nothern California legislators.

Meanwhile, Southern California legislators don't see much in the package, except for the funding and more generous tree and shrub clearance regulations and funding, which includes $1 billion over five years from the state's cap-and-trade fund. Some, however, don't believe it is enough and any time you say "cap-and-trade," opposition ears perken. There are also concerns about language about the diameter of trees that can be removed in forest clearance. 

The biggest end-of-session fight has literally come down to a game of inches.

There's a lot more in the nearly 100-page bill. Few people have read the whole package. Advocates look for their section and parse every word. Few legislators have staff with knowledge on all of the issues involved. Because it is a conference report, there is no committee analysis, which is often used to build the floor analysis. The floor write-up likely won't be available until Friday, which will already be a hectic day as the clock ticks toward midnight.

As of this writing, PG&E's stock is up 1%, modestly above the Dow Jones Industrial average's gains, but not showing any significant response to last night's developments on SB 901.

[Disclaimer: I have accepted ads from both sides of this issue. As with my policy, I accept ads as they don't encourage illegal behavior.]

 

SB 100 (de León): It was a tense vote count that wasn't closed for hours, but the bill to accellerate California's 100% zero emissions standard eventualy passed the Assembly 44-33 yesterday, with three not voting. The bill is now back on the Senate Floor for concurrence, where it will certainly pass. Governor Brown looks forward to the bill landing on his desk and signing it into his legacy.

While utilities were divided on SB 901 package, SB 100 passage was opposed by each of the investor-owned utilities, as well as many business groups, particularly agriculture.

Senator de León passed on file on the bill this morning, so it's unclear if it will be brought up today or if he just didn't have paper on it yet.

 

SB 10 (Hertzberg): The governor signed the bill to replace money bail in California with pre-trial risk assessment was signed by Governor Jerry Brown just after The Nooner went out. He was surrounded by the bill's author, Bob Hertzberg (D-Van Nuys), lead Assembly proponent Rob Bonta (D-Alameda), legislative leaders Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) and Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood), as well as Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye of the California Supreme Court. 

Cantil-Sakauye was at UC Davis Law during Jerry Brown's second term as governor. Gotta love a community college-UCD-King Hall alum who becomes chief justice and was the second woman and first person of color to assume the post. Good pick, Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Friend of The Nooner Capitol Public Radio's Ben Adler gets some Morning Edition time to talk about the bill.

Opponents from the bail bond industry promised to fight the bill's implementation. David Quintana, a lobbyist for the bail industry, told the Sacramento Bee “You don’t eliminate an industry and expect those people to go down quietly,” he said. “Every single weapon in our arsenal will be fired.”

The fight is clearly not over. Meanwhile, if the legal attack is over the 72-hour requirement for amendments for a final vote, it would just be a three-month stay of execution for the bail bond industry. There will be simple majorities in both houses again next session. A bill that eliminates cash bail effective January 1, 2020 instead of October 1, 2019 would pass and be signed by gubernatorial favorite Gavin Newsom. so it's likely a legal debate over three months.

 

 Of course, we have Duncan Hunter after the jump... 

 

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Vote YES on SB 1017

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

CA50 (East San Diego County): Yesterday, Congressman Duncan Hunter told San Diego's ABC 10News “Leave my wife out of it, leave my family out of it. It’s me they’re after anyway. They’re not after my wife; they want to take me down, that’s what they’re up to. So let’s get this in the arena and have this settled,” said Hunter. [h/t LAT's Sarah D. Wire]  

He made the comments before speaking at the luncheon for the "Women Volunteers in Politics," a conservative group. 

Apparently, a lot has changed since his interview with Fox News after pleading "not guilty" last Thursday, during which he drove the bus right over his wife. Fox reports, you decide: 

"He also said that his wife handled most of the family expenses when he was first deployed to Iraq in 2003 and that she continued to manage them when he joined Congress.

“When I went away to Iraq in 2003, the first time, I gave her power of attorney. She handled my finances throughout my entire military career and that continued on when I got into Congress... She was also the campaign manager so whatever she did, that’ll be looked at too, I’m sure, but I didn’t do it.

Okay, so that's two very different stories. He's truly trying to make this about a witch hunt by the Republican U.S. Attorney and not what's in the indictment or his own campaign reports. Yes, the investigation started under a Democratic U.S. Attorney, but that followed an FEC investigation and media coverage, and the Hunters have essentially already expressed guilt of charges through previous repayments to the campaign committee.

Meanwhile, SurveyUSA has released a poll commissioned by ABC 10 and the San Diego Union-Tribune. If you're a regular Nooner reader, you know how I feel about SurveyUSA. The firm uses responses from robocalls and text messages. It's an affordable way for local television stations and newspapers to get a snapshot on the relative cheap.

From the basic cost side, statewide polls on candidates and issues can lead to five days of stories, whereas a single legislative poll is one story. Thus, the only in-depth polls we get on legislative districts are generally by interested parties--the candidates or committees shaping a message to promote a candidate. 

So, we take what we can get:

  • If the election for United States Representative from California's 50th Congressional District were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Duncan Hunter and Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who would you vote for? [n=539 likely voters] [apparently not rotated
    • Duncan Hunter (R): 47%
    • Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 39%
    • Undecided: 13%
  • Duncan Hunter and his wife have been indicted and charged with illegally using campaign funds to pay for personal expenses. Before just now, were you aware? Or unaware? That Hunter and his wife were the subject of a criminal investigation? [n=746 registered voters]
    • Aware: 76%
    • Unaware: 21%
    • Not sure: 2%
  • Do you think the charges against Hunter are politically motivated? Or not? [n=746 registered voters]
    • Are: 42%
    • Are not: 36%
    • Not sure: 22%

69% of self-identified "conservative" voters believe the charges are politically motivated. They account for 38% of the district's voters. A sightly smaller share (64%) of registered Republicans believe they are politically motivated. They are 43% of the sample. 

11% of likely voters say that the charges against Hunter make them "more likely" to vote for him in November. 

The polling began before the court appearance of the Hunters, pleas of "not guilty," and Hunter's FOX News interview. 

Take the above numbers for what you will at this point in the game. If Democrats decide to make Hunter a priority, there is plenty ready to hit the press to provide salacious details from the indictment to independents and Republican women. Legitimate polling doesn't start for a couple of weeks for congressional races, particularly for a dynamic situation like we find in CA50.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Michael Anadon, Shirley Kim, Jorge Morales, and Afrack Vargas!

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Enough about California politics, how about some Arizona politics?  Everything you need to know about Tuesday's Arizona primary election, discussed on ARIZONA POLITICS THIS WEEK.  Watch and subscribe for free at www.aptw.tv
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  

  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6

 

TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
Newsom And Villaraigosa Affairs Coming To Tv Ads In California
Phil Willon @
latimes.com
An independent political committee backing Republican John Cox for governor released an ad blasting both Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa for their past sexual affairs.

Andrew Gillum is running in Florida on his â

He is one of two African Americans seeking a governorship in the South in November.

Political Ad Attacks Gavin Newsom As A 'child Of Privilege'
Phil Willon @
latimes.com
An independent political committee backing Republican John Cox for California governor released a new campaign ad bashing Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom as a “child of privilege” with a far-left political agenda.

Florida candidate for governor Andrew Gillum hopes to join other politicians of color on November ballots

If he gets the Democratic Party's nod, the Tallahassee mayor would be the first African American to win a major-party nomination for governor in the state.

Former L.A. Mayor Villaraigosa Joins Board Of Local Cannabis Firm Medmen
James Rufus Koren @
latimes.com
MedMen, a Culver City company that operates high-end cannabis shops in California, Nevada and New York and has aggressive expansion plans, announced Villaraigosa’s appointment Wednesday morning. Villaraigosa adds political and governmental experience to a board made up of branding, entertainment and accounting executives.

‘the Race Has Tightened’: Cruz Allies Sound Alarm About Texas Senate Race - Politico

The White House, meanwhile, has been monitoring the contest. Two senior Republicans said they expected President Donald Trump, who fought bitterly with Cruz during in the 2016 presidential race, to hit the trail for the Texas Republican ahead of the November election.

2016 Presidential Candidates React To Oregon Shooting
the numbers @
latimes.com
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Rudolph Giuliani Criticizes an Anticorruption Crackdown in Romania

President Trump’s personal lawyer said his letter to the Romanian president was part of his private practice and had “nothing to do with the U.S. government.”