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  • CA50 (East San Diego County): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - become one now] - "For now, this remains a "Leans Republican" district, but it is now the most interesting of California's 53 congressional races."
  • AD72 (Seal Beach): changed from Leans Republican to Toss-up: "The allegations that Diep sought or knowingly assisted another Republican to get in the race alone does not shift the race dramatically. However,  Lowenthal's fundraising advantage, shifting voter registration away from the GOP in the district, and the overall more favorable dynamics for Democrats in suburban districts than in normal midterm years makes this race a Toss-up, and it could move to a "Leans Democrat" if the primary interference story gains traction, leading more independent voters to lean to Lowenthal."



  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 40 Democrats, 9 Republicans, 5 toss-ups
      - Hold of 39, pick-up in Open/Issa CA49; Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25), Rohrabacher (CA48), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 57-59 Democrats, 23-21 Republicans
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and Open/Allen (AD72) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).


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EYE CANDY: From the Secretary of State's Office: Newly Digitized Records Mark 98 Years of Women’s Suffrage Movement in California

Equality Tea


Good morning. It's a chilly one, and it feels good to be wearing a sweatshirt as I begin today's writing. Are you ready for the final sprint until midnight Friday? Senate is in at noon and Assembly at 1pm today. One thing for sure--there is still a lot cooking before the final gavel comes down.

It will also be a week that tests the "72 hours in print" constitutional rule inserted into the state Constitution by Proposition 54 at the November 2016 election.

Here's the plain language (Article IV, Section 8(b)(2)):

(2) No bill may be passed or ultimately become a statute unless the bill with any amendments has been printed, distributed to the members, and published on the Internet, in its final form, for at least 72 hours before the vote, except that this notice period may be waived if the Governor has submitted to the Legislature a written statement that dispensing with this notice period for that bill is necessary to address a state of emergency, as defined in paragraph (2) of subdivision (c) of Section 3 of Article XIII B, that has been declared by the Governor, and the house considering the bill thereafter dispenses with the notice period for that bill by a separate rollcall vote entered in the journal, two thirds of the membership concurring, prior to the vote on the bill.

From the plain reading, amendments must be adopted into bills by tomorrow night to be voted on by midnight Friday. The biggest includes the complicated stew simmering in the conference committee dealing with wildfire preparation, response, and perhaps utility liability.

Multiple controversial bills can't practically be amended in both houses at 11:00pm tomorrow night. Dissenting members can run out the clock on the amendments. These bills are also generally are not lacking in opposition. Thus, getting through multiple controversial bills in the logjam in the final hour Friday night is likely impossible.

Meanwhile, what does "printed" mean? Technically, bill language is "printed" as it comes back from Legislative Counsel, the nonpartisan legal office that turns ideas into statutory form and provides a layman's digest of the changes to law proposed by the bill. Lobbyists stand at "the gate" on the third floor outside of the chambers scrambling to get copies of "RNs" (I believe "reference number") of that Leg Counsel language. 

Then, the house with the bill in front of them vote to adopt the amendments (simple majority) and, if adopted, the presiding officer says "The bill is out to print and back on file."

When is a bill "printed"? Is it when it comes off the electronic system that members access RNs and is printed out and photocopied, or is it when it is physically printed by the Office of State Publishing and usually available the next day in the format that traditionally met the definition of "in print"? The Constitution goes no further on "printed" than what is included in the above Article IV, Section 8(b)(2).  

Remember, while the end-of-session has been cray-cray for far longer than my 24 years up here, this is the first term close under Proposition 54 so these are novel legal questions.

BAIL: On this issue, for CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at the first big bill to test this print requirement--SB 10 (Hertzberg). The bill, which replaces the money bail system with pre-trial risk assessment, was hotly negotiated over the two-year session--in private as is not unusual. 

Now, let be clear that, from a law and justice standpoint, I believe SB 10 is a good step with thorough evaluation of its impacts. But, that's not my job in this space.

Here is the RN that came back from Legislative Counsel on August 16, 2018 at 11:25am. As is customary, the RN was a listing of the amendments to the bill that was currently in print, not the bill itself. That doesn't happen until adopted by the legislative house and is "back to print and out to file. 

The bill information page for SB 10 states "AMENDED IN ASSEMBLY August 20, 2018." However, the same page says "Date Published: 08/17/2018 02:00 PM." 

While the Assembly was in session on August 16, it did not take up the amendments. Meanwhile, opposition from previous allies of the overall effort gained momentum over the subsequent three days before the Assembly returned midday Monday. There was significant concern that new opposition from the ACLU and civil rights groups over the "final" product would peel off a few votes needed for passage. Already, it was well known that several vulnerable Democrats and others would not support it. 

The rebuttal to the argument submitted in favor Proposition 54 included "The Legislature needs to work better, not be hamstrung by red tape. Prop. 54 unnecessarily requires the Legislature to wait 3 days before passing a measure in its “second house,” allowing special interests to defeat it." 

That is exactly what proponents of SB 10 were afraid of--waiting 3 days for the bill's final language to be in print with time for opposition momentum to build. I voted against Prop 54 because sometimes it takes the final hours for a deal to be reached and that is not always a bad thing. I hate to use something as grim as the execution chamber, but that final hour is when executive clemency is granted. Legislative bodies work the same way and the pressure of midnight tomorrow is not the same as Friday's official midnight deadline for the passage of bills.  

Thus, the Assembly adopted the amendments and, "without reference to file" (WORF), passed the bill on Monday. The State Senate also WORF'd it on Tuesday, sending the bill to the governor. From a plain reading of the constitutional provision, it does appear that neither the final vote on the Assembly or Senate floors complied with the plain reading of Article IV, Section 8(b)(2), and it does not fall into the emergency provision set forth in that section.

If signed by the governor, the bill takes effect January 1, although the money bail prohibition would commence October 1, 2019. Before then, it is mostly the administrative set up of the new system for pre-trial risk assessment. Of course, it is very likely that a legal challenge will be running on a parallel track. While some civil liberties groups have now come out opposed, the legal challenge funding will largely be from the bail bond industry because, well, there is a lot of money in money bail.



Upward Mobility at Cal State LA


Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels


More below...



ELECTRIFYING $$$: On Friday, the California Democratic Party reported $1,000,000 from the California State Association of Electrical Workers. The association is a collective of local International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) unions, which are very interested in utility liability for wildfires reform. The fear is that bankruptcy, particularly of PG&E is a possibility, which would lead to job losses and imposed labor contract concessions.

Since July, the association has contributed $1,182,500, with the vast majority to Democratic candidates. To Republicans, it has given $10,000 to Joel Anderson for Board of Equalization, $5,000 each to Chad Mayes and George Runner for Board of Equalization 2014 Officeholder's Account Runner is termed out).

Anybody who thought the issue of utility wildfire liability reform was over when both sides seemingly threw up their hands, think twice. Further, about that Proposition 54 exception from the 72-hour rule for emergencies, the governor has already declared emergencies in nineteen counties this calendar year, from my count. His proposed liability language change is for any fire after January 1, 2018. 

From my read of the constitution, the 72-hour rule may be dispensed with a letter from the governor a a two-thirds vote in each house on the conference report or a separate bill.

(Disclosure: I have taken advertising at normal published rates in support of utility liability limitation but otherwise am not involved in the issue.)

GASSY: With at least one poll showing the gas tax repeal going down, Emily Cadei writes in the Bee that some Democratic candidates for Congress are campaigning against the tax as the seek to oust incumbent Republicans. Josh Harder (CA10), and Katie Porter (CD45) are cited in the article as campaigning for the repeal, while Jessica Morse (CA04) has criticized the hike, but has stopped short of calling for the repeal, which is in Proposition 6. 

Where did the morning go? Soon it will be time to tune into the two sessions...have a great one!


Probolsky Research


#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Donna Carpenter, Rachel Linn Gish, and Richard Peterson!



Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.


  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Enough about California politics, how about some Arizona politics?  Everything you need to know about Tuesday's Arizona primary election, discussed on ARIZONA POLITICS THIS WEEK.  Watch and subscribe for free at www.aptw.tv
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  

  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:


  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
Ca Bill Provides Process To Reduce Sentences For Marijuana Possession
If AB 1793 is signed by Brown, the state Department of Justice has until July 1, 2019, to search its database for eligible cases from 1975 to 2016 and send them to district attorneys for review. District attorneys then have exactly one year to challenge any case that they do not agree is eligible for resentencing.

John McCainâ

One of the late senator’s personal strengths – his capacity for brutal self-assessment – turned out to be a fatal political weakness for a presidential candidate.

Huntington Beach Reopens After Teenage Boy Encounters Shark
Frank Shyong @
A 14-year-old boy was swimming about 25 yards offshore at about 8 p.m. Friday when he noticed a dorsal fin jutting out of the water, said Huntington Beach Fire Department Lt. Claude Panis. The boy felt the shark butt him in the chest, then saw a tail fin swimming away from him, Panis said.

Democrats fret Nelson is choking in Florida Senate race

Nelson’s laid-back style and fundraising deficit have left Democrats concerned that Rick Scott will trounce him.

Inflation And Delays Could Add Billions More To Bullet Train Project Costs
Ralph Vartabedian @
But still it’s not enough, planners say.


The Queens Democratic Party machine seemed to be nominating candidates without their consent. I needed to find them. But how?