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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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DISTRICT UPDATE(S):

  • CA50 (East San Diego County): updated analysis [available to Nooner Premium subscribers - become one now] - "For now, this remains a "Leans Republican" district, but it is now the most interesting of California's 53 congressional races."

BALANCE OF POWER: Okay, I've added rationale to my numbers so you can throw tomatoes at me. Please, organic heirlooms only. I'll get my fresh mozzarella, basil, olive oil, and salt ready.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 40 Democrats, 9 Republicans, 5 toss-ups
      - Hold of 39, pick-up in Open/Issa CA49; Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Knight (CA25), Rohrabacher (CA48), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats, 24-22 Republicans
      - Dems hold 55, pick up AD76 with tough holds for Dems in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-ups for Dems in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and long-shot in Baker (AD16).

 


“‘The world is a fine place and worth the fighting for and I hate very much to leave it,’ spoke my hero, Robert Jordan, in [Ernest Hemingway’s] ‘For Whom the Bell Tolls.‘ And I do, too. I hate to leave it. But I don’t have a complaint. Not one."

The Restless Wave, Good Times, Just Causes, Great Fights, and Other Appreciations (John McCain and Mark Salter, 2018)

 

Obviously, it's a sad but expected morning after the death of John McCain. I join the voices of those from the across the political spectrum who disagreed with him at times in recognizing that he was a lion of the Senate and a true American hero. As I write frequently, if you agree with someone in politics 100% of the time, you shouldn't be in politics.

McCain died 9 years to the day after Senator Ted Kennedy lost his battle with a similar cancer.

He reportedly told his family that he wanted George W. Bush and Barack Obama--two men who beat him--to give eulogies at his funeral, which will take place at the National Cathedral in Washington. President Trump is not invited. Before arriving in Washington to lie in state in the U.S. Capitol rotunda, he will lie in state in the Arizona capitol and a service will be held in Phoenix, with a eulogy by former Vice President Joe Biden.

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

Last night was a beautiful Sacramento evening. The R Street market/food truck fiesta/dance party drew an estimated 20,000 people. Five years ago, that block between 11th and 12th was empty warehouses. It's truly what's amazing.

It was so crowded that my friend and I walked over to K street for dinner. On the way up 10th street, across from the Capitol was this delightful irony:

No on SB 10, Yes on Parking Tickets

SB 10 is of course the bill that, if signed by Governor Brown, replaces the money bail system with pre-trial risk-assessment. 

On the way back from dinner, there was a rally on the North Steps of the Capitol by folks pushing for an end of the violence in Nicaragua and true democracy. They showed their pride of their heritage and that of the freedoms the United States provides. Had they been doing that last night in Managua, they likely would have been bloodied

CA10 (Stanislaus): In the ModBee, Garth Stapely looks at the status of the competitive challenge to four-term congressman Jeff Denham (R-Turlock). 

CA50 (East San Diego County): Andrew Dyer reports in the Times that disabled veterans are mixed on the allegations that Duncan and Margaret Hunter falsified campaign reports, claiming that items purchased for personal use were "for wounded warriors." 

Meanwhile, Michael Smolens writes in the San Diego Union-Tribune that the Congressman Hunter's indictment has given his Democratic challenger new momentum. Also in the U-T, John Wilkens looks at the recent history of congressmembers getting in legal troubles while in office. 

POTUS? Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore) was on This Week with George Stephanopoulos this morning, talking last week's legal developments and the I-word--impeachment. Also on the teevee this morning was Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) on CNN's State of the Union with Jake Tapper talking about the investigations, although Schiff is not seen as having presidential ambitions.

Yes, before 11:30, I managed to make a smoothie, get to farmers' market, write a district analysis, put together this little Nooner, and "watch" all the major morning shows. Really, I just listen and fast forward through commercials as I write. Yes, mom, my sheets are in the washing machine. I'll be ready for the 1:05 Giants game.

THE DEMS: The Democratic National Committee yesterday voted to reduce the role of "superdelegates" in the presidential nominating process, writes Evan Halper in the Times. The change takes those, who are largely appointees of elected officials and party leaders, out of the first round of balloting, although they would be called upon to vote if the nomination vote at convention proceeds to subsequent rounds.

The majority of delegates are elected as affiliated with a campaign during state primary elections and are generally pledged if their candidate is on the ballot at convention. Superdelegates, however, are unpledged, although they frequently declare their alignment far before the convention. In 2016, they were overwhelmingly in the camp of Hillary Clinton, causing ire among Bernie Sanders supporters. 

  

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

 

CHOO-CHOO COSTS: In the Times, Ralph Vartabedian writes that inflation and delays are significantly increasing the costs of the high-speed rail project.  

"In order to hit its 2033 deadline and $77-billion budget, the California High Speed Rail Authority will have to increase daily spending by up to nine times over the next four years or risk putting the already-delayed system further behind.

Russell Fong, the authority’s chief financial officer, acknowledges the goals will be difficult to achieve.

“It is a very aggressive spending rate,” Fong said.

Still, officials said they are beginning to ramp up spending, and the estimates were officially adopted by the rail authority board in its 2018 business plan.

But outside infrastructure experts question whether the $27-million-a-day outlay necessary under the plan would even be possible.

“That burn rate is ludicrous,” said civil engineer James Moore, director of USC’s transportation engineering program. “It is so far outside standard experience that it doesn’t make sense to assume it will occur.”

Recently, I have talked to a growing number of electeds and other policy leaders from across the political spectrum who believe it is time to pull the plug. I honestly don't know the solution, and for those of you who know me, I rarely offer that concession.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#FAREWELL: Neil Simon, the great playwright, who authored such masterpieces as The Odd CoupleBrighton Beach Memoirs and so many more on the big and little screens and on stage. Admittedly, his heyday was mostly before my time, but I remember fondly seeing Brighton Beach on video casette at the age of 14.

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday Marva Diaz, Randi Knott, Nathan Mintz, and William Walker!

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Enough about California politics, how about some Arizona politics?  Everything you need to know about Tuesday's Arizona primary election, discussed on ARIZONA POLITICS THIS WEEK.  Watch and subscribe for free at www.aptw.tv
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  

  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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