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BALANCE OF POWER: Okay, I've added rationale to my numbers so you can throw tomatoes at me. Please, organic heirlooms only. I'll get my fresh mozzarella, basil, olive oil, and salt ready.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 40 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
      - Hold of 39, pick-up in Open/Issa CA49; Toss-ups of Denham (CA10), Rohrabacher (CA48), Open/Royce (CA39), and Walters (CA45)
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
      - Dems hold 13, pick up Open/Cannella (SD12)
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats, 24-22 Republicans
      - Dems hold 55 with tough holds in Salas (AD32) and Cervantes (AD60), likely pick-up in Open/Steinorth (AD40) and possible pick-up in toss-up Acosta (AD38) and long-shot in AD16

 

THE EAR TICKLE DU JOUR: On the LAT California Politics Podcast, John Myers and Melanie Mason discuss what may or may not move forward from the wildfire conference committee and, what else, the Duncan and Margaret Hunter situation. 

 

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Happy Saturday folks! The beautiful weather will continue in Sacramento this weekend, as it will in L.A. and San Diego. If you're heading to the Giants day game, it'll be nice, but, of course, bring layers. While the Dodgers clobbered the Padres last night, the Giants blew another extra-inning game to Texas. The A's one and are one game out of the top spot in the AL west.

Yesterday, I attended the Public Policy Institute of California's conversation with the two candidates for superintendent of public instruction--Assemblymember Tony Thurmond and schools improvement director Marshall Tuck. The conversation was what you'd expect, with each candidate mostly staying in their corner. Asked by PPIC Pres/CEO Mark Baldassare, Tuck gave California's public schools a grade of "D" while Thurmond wouldn't give a grade. Both called for more money and the usual target of prison spending came up. 

On funding, both expressed support for the likely 2020 ballot measure to provide different treatment to most industrial and commercial property from residential property. They also both looked to taxes on the cannabis industry, although a ballot measure would likely be required to redirect proceeds from legal marijuana sales from requirements included in Proposition 64.

The biggest conflict was over teacher pay. Both argued for across-the-board teacher pay increases. Tuck, however, wants additional compensation to attract teachers to underperforming districts in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas.

After the chat at the Sheraton, I hopped on a Jump bike for the first time. I unlocked it from a bike rack, and rode in bike lanes to another bike rack a couple of blocks from the Global Nooner Headquarters. I had walked there but had picked up some items so a bike with a basket was perfect.

On my ride, I didn't see any examples of Jump bikes in the middle of sidewalks of Jump riders being rude or careless. I am sure it happens, but the complaints I hear are very limited exceptions. The mile ride? $1.09. It was fun on a beautiful Sacramento day. A taxi would have been around $9 and an Uber around $7 (both with tips). And, I was able to add a small exercise to MyFitnessPal.

Oh, what is that? The hamsters remind me that I am supposed to be writing about politics and policy.

CA50 (East San Diego County): In the SDUT, Lauryn Schroeder looks at the background of Margaret Hunter and the alleged expenditures from campaign funds for personal use made by her.

She may be guilty on more counts than her husband. But, don't let that be an excuse to ignore his behavior, which is well documented. Must a member of Congress resign because of an alleged affairs? Of course not. Some of our best political leaders have had tawdry personal lives. Does that make it okay that the cost thereof be borne by campaign donors and reports falsified to disguise them? That's the issue for Duncan. Further, the allegations against Margaret in the indictment were okayed by him and his treasurer was directed to file such reports. And, of course, California is a community property state and with that, those Minnie Mouse ears and Punky Brewster items belong to both of them, 50-50. 

This is an interesting side note that I don't intend to mean anything politically. Duncan Hunter was born to a political family and married a Poland-born immigrant whose family fled the country in the late 1980s. He was the second congressman to endorse Donald Trump. Trump married a woman born in then-Yugoslavia who moved to the United States, obtained citizenship, and recently obtained citizenship for her parents.

CA48 (Huntington Beach): In the Los Angeles Times, Michael Finnegan reports "Dana Rohrabacher, the embattled Orange County congressman known for his close ties to the Kremlin, said Friday that Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions should resign after showing disloyalty to President Trump by refusing to shut down the Russia investigation."

The big fight over AB 84, relating to campaign finance, after the jump.

  

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Southern California Association of Governments: Legislation Analyst (Los Angeles)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

 

MONEY, THAT'S WHAT I WANT: The bill to allow legislative leaders to raise money with the same contribution limits as party committees may be in trouble,  reports Patrick McGreevy in the Times. AB 84 (Mullin) requires a two-thirds vote because it amends the Political Reform Act of 1974. The bill was a gut-and-amend in the State Senate after it passed the Assembly, so the supermajority has not been tested. Twelve members of the Senate Republican Caucus signed a letter yesterday declaring their opposition, including caucus leader Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel).

The two names not on the letter are Joel Anderson (R-Alpine) and Tom Berryhill. Anderson, who is running for Board of Equalization is open to voting for the bill, according to the LA Times. Berryhill was absent yesterday. That means, Democrats would need to get all of their members in the Senate and one of those two, or flip someone who signed the letter. Anderson is open and for Berryhill, maybe, as he is termed out in 2020, but that's a long shot. It would make it a lot easier for Anderson if Berryhill joins him. 

The issue isn't simply about money and allowing party legislative leaders to have a separate caucus account that $36,500 per calendar year from each donor, rather than the current candidate-controlled limit of $4,400 per election ($8,800 per cycle)

The bigger issue among leadership Democrats is not the aggregate amount of money available for campaigns for Democratic candidates. Rather, it's an internal battle within the California Democratic Party, which I have written about repeatedly. The 2016 campaign of Bernie Sanders, and to a lesser extent the 2004 campaign of Howard Dean, built a large number of very "progressive" party members who have been fighting for a bigger role in the party's leadership and the positions it takes. This led to elections to county central committees and Assembly district-level caucuses, which has changed the composition of voting delegates on the Democratic State Central Committee and its executive board.

On policy issues, the "traditional" and this newer, louder voice are not far apart. It's an ends vs. means discussion. The most pronounced issue has been single-payer health care, as espoused by Dean, Sanders, and the California Nurses Association. And, those familiar with the internal party debate has been ugly over the "means" of reaching largely agreed upon end.

This is important, as it is increasingly hard to count on the state party to spend money on targets who are the moderates in swing districts. That's not to blame current elected leadership of the Democratic Party; it's rather the fact that the number of activists who would rather lose an election over electing a moderate has increased along with the volume of their voices. Legislative leaders have counting votes as their job. The same debate is having over dissent over Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan's leadership in Washington from wings of their respective parties. 

As of the current make-up of California legislative districts, legislative strategists and legislative leaders have the capture or denial of Democratic supermajorities. That number is 27 State Senate seats and 54 State Assembly seats for Democrats. In the Senate this cycle, that means holding 12 seats that are pretty darn safe. The one that Democrats are counting on is Anthony Cannella's open SD12. Cannella has been a great fit for the district, as the son of a moderate former assemblymember Sal Cannella. Anthony was the lone Senate Republican to vote for the increase in the gas tax and vehicle registration fees for road infrastructure.

Democrats are favored for a pick-up in SD12, largely because their candidate is Assemblymember Anna Caballero, who thus has a huge fundraising advantage over Madera County supervisor Republican Robert Poythress, who had one-fourth the cash-on-hand on June 30 as Caballero, and $100,000 of that was his own money. It was also a Brown+9.3% district in 2014. The next closest two Jeff Stone's SD28 and Janet Nguyen's SD34, but they is a long shots.

Senate Democrats need to spend heavily in SD12, but Cabellero has had to move to the center to better match the make up of a district which stretches from Monterey/San Benito counties to Merced. It is as purple as you can find. Try to explain the strategy Senate Democrats need to use to get a supermajority to a Berniecrat. That's why caucus leadership wants to be able to fund more campaigns. While the California Democratic Party opposes the bill because of a resolution, its passage would be a huge relief to the party's current elected leadership.

I currently would give a 67% chance of Democrats to return to 27 votes in the State Senate for the 2019-20 session, but that flip of SD12 is essential along hold elsewhere.

Of course, it's the end of session and if anyone says they know what will happen, they are just one of many who will make educated guesses that only will be proven one way or another when the gavel falls next Friday. Or, perhaps after. If they have the otherwise-required two-thirds vote, they could insert an urgency clause and vote in the Senate and back to the Assembly after midnight August 31, pursuant to Article IV, Section 10(c)(3) of the Constitution.

 

Probolsky Research

 

Whoa, that Saturday morning sure flew by and I only skimmed the surface. I'm sure there is plenty more to carry over to tomorrow. Enjoy your day!  

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday Dana Dean, Eddie Kurtz, and Lanz Nalagan!

 

 

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.
  • Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) is seeking an experienced Legislation Analyst with excellent writing and communication skills to assist the Legislation Department with advancing SCAG's policy interests and planning priorities through regional, statewide, and national engagement and advocacy. Under general direction of the Manager of Legislation, the Legislation Analyst III will navigate high-level policy discussions and communicate emerging issues to SCAG's staff and Regional Council. This role will assess the impact of proposed legislation and work with the Manager to coordinate a response to all applicable legislative proposals. This role requires a legislative expert who can navigate complex political environments to increase the visibility of SCAG's legislative efforts. This role requires an understanding of transportation, housing, and air quality legislation and policy and an ability to communicate how those issues will affect the SCAG region. To apply please visit scag.ca.gov/opportunities/Pages/CareerOpportunities.aspx.
  • Enough about California politics, how about some Arizona politics?  Everything you need to know about Tuesday's Arizona primary election, discussed on ARIZONA POLITICS THIS WEEK.  Watch and subscribe for free at www.aptw.tv
  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here: onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621  

  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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