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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

 

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DISTRICT UPDATES/NOTES

 

BALANCE OF POWER: Note that I don't list district-specific predictions below, but rather use probabilities in toss-ups to make projections. Individual race ratings are on the ATC district pages.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 39 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
  • Senate:
    • Current: 26 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans 
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats, 24-22 Republicans

 

AURAL PLEASURE: On this week's California Political Podcast, the LAT's John Myers and Melanie Mason talk about the bail reform legislation, as that affecting policing policies. They are then joined by Liam Dillon to talk about an inheritance property tax break that goes primarily to children of wealthy homeowners.

PLAYING THE FIELD: For the Los Angeles Times, Christine Mai-Duc reviews the spending by the Congressional Leadership Fund in Republican races with a significant possibility of flipping on November 6. "The ads, released by the Congressional Leadership Fund, attack Democrats running against Rep. Steve Knight (R-Palmdale) [Katie Hill], Rep. Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) [Katie Porter] and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa) [Harley Rouda], as well as a candidate [Gil Cisneros] running in an Orange County seat being vacated by Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)."

We're talking about nearly $2.8 million last week...

AURAL PLEASURE: Speaking of Christine Mai-Duc, she was on the popular Crooked Media live show/podcast "Lovett or Leave It" on Friday from the L.A. Improv. The title of this week's gathering is "Darth Omarosa," so that political caveat is provided to readers.

SPEAKING OF DOUGH . . . For CALmatters, Dan Walters looks at the late push [AB 84] to allow legislative party leaders to raise money for caucus accounts with the same limits as currently are imposed on party committees for state candidates. That means $36,500 per donor per calendar year in this cycle, which woud be adjusted for inflation each cycle. As Walters points out, it's not a fight of Democrats versus Republicans, but largely within the Democratic Party as to how the purse strings are controlled in the continued battle among "traditional" party leaders and the further left, many of whom supported Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary.

CA ECONOMY: On Friday, we received generally good employment news for the Golden State. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, That's a decline of 0.5% from July 2017.July saw a net game on 46,700 net jobs from June. The labor force increase by 113,000, which combined with the unemployment rate, paints a very good picture.

Republicans will point to Washington's tax cuts and deregulation while Democrats can argue that the progressive governance on climate change, tax hikes for road repair and other policies are not hurting the state's economy, and that the five lowest unemployment counties (below) are the most liberal on various policies, while four of the five with the highest unemployment are represented by the GOP.

Critics on both front would say for now.

Of the eight economic sectors tracked, only construction (-1,200) and financial services (-900) experienced declines. The top three month-over-month increases were in numbers were professional and business services (15,100), trade, transportation and utilities (11,200), and leisure and hospitality (9,500).

Five counties with the lowest unemployment in July (not seasonally adjusted):

  1. San Mateo: 2.3% (-0.9% from July 2017)
  2. San Francisco: 2.4% (-1.0% from July 2017)
  3. Marin: 2.5% (-0.9% from July 2017)
  4. Napa: 2.9% (-1.0% from July 2017)
  5. Sonoma: 2.9% (-1.0% from July 2017)

The good news for Napa and Sonoma is that, after nine months after the devastating Tubbs fire, payroll jobs have held up. I need to dive more deeply into the data to look at sectors. Of course the three lowest counties are where we find the epicenter of the state's housing crunch.

Five counties with the highest unemployment in July (not seasonally adjusted):

  1. Imperial: 19.3% (-4.9% from July 2017)
  2. Colusa: 10.5% (-1.1% from July 2017)
  3. Tulare: 9.3% (-1.5% from July 2017)
  4. Kern: 8.1% (-1.6% from July 2017)
  5. Merced: 8.1% (-1.6% from July 2017)

 

More stories and an update on the fires below . . .

 

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: Attorney General's Office: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Communications Director (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Climate Resolve: Outreach Program Coordinator (Los Angeles)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels

 

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CAR CHASES 24/7, JUST WHAT LA-LA LAND NEEDS: In the Times, Meg James reports that cable giant Charter Spectrum will soon have 24/7 local news coverage for its 1.5 million L.A.-area subscribers. You know, because it's clear that the area's stations have so much gripping news that they want this. I don't know the local news business well enough to know what void this is filling, except for the opportunity to have 24/7 coverage of President Trump's Hollywood Walk of Fame star to try capture anyone taking a pick-axe to it yet again. 

I mean, you can only watch sports highlights once and the weather news is omnipresent. There's got to be another play here about carriage fees for the broadcasters or something. If anyone knows, let me in on it.

CA45 (Irvine): Was the campaign of law professor Dave Min, a Democratic candidate in the June primary to take on Congresswoman Mimi Walters, subject to a cyberattack? It was far too sophisticated for fellow UCI law professor Katie Porter's (D) campaign. The attack hit a shared office space through spearfishing. Min is Korean-American, which would obviously raise to significant and capable suspects to the east.

 

FIRE ROUND-UP:

 

Rankings in California's Top 20 in history from over the last 12 months:

Deadliest
#3 Tubbs (October 2017) - 22 deaths
#10 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 9 deaths
#13 Carr (July 2018) - 8 deaths
#14 Atlas (October 2017) - 6 deaths
#20 Cascade (October 2017) - 4 deaths

Most Destructive
#1 Tubbs (October 2017) - 5,636 structures
#6 Carr (July 2018) - 1,605 structures
#7 Nuns (October 2017) - 1,355 structures
#8 Thomas (December 2017) - 1,063 structures
#12 Atlas (October 2017) - 783 structures
#18 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 546 structures

Largest
#1 Mendocino Complex (July 2018) - 384,567
#2 Thomas (December 2017) - 281,893
#8 Carr (July 2018) - 244,099

 

Pretty much across the board, cooler weather and fewer windy conditions have slowed fire growth and increased containment.

FERGUSON: The Yosemite-area fire has burned 96,810 acres and is 87% contained. There have been two firefighter deaths associated with the fire, which has now burned for over a month.

Yosemite Status: Wawona Road (Hwy 41) between Wawona and Yosemite Valley, and Glacier Point Rd are closed due to fire
Yosemite Valley is open, but only accessible by entering Yosemite via Highways 140 or 120. Glacier Point Road and Merced Grove remain closed. Other areas of the park, including Wawona/Mariposa Grove, Hetch Hetchy, and Tuolumne Meadows are open.

CARR (Shasta/Trinity): The Carr Fire continued to burn at a slower pace and no new destruction or deaths or serious injuries have been reported.

  • Acreage: 227,098
  • Containment: 83%
  • Deaths: 8 (2 firefighters, 1 PG&E lineman apprentice, 1 CAL FIRE mechanic, and 4 civilians)
  • Structures destroyed: 1,604  (1,079 residences, 22 commercial, 503 other)
  • Structures damaged: 279 (190 residences, 26 commercial, 63 other)
  • Structures threatened: 0
  • Personnel: 3,101
  • Engines: 173
  • Helicopters: 9
  • Dozers: 30
  • Cause: Vehicle equipment malfunction
  • Expected full containment: Unknown 

MENDOCINO COMPLEX (Colusa/Lake/Mendocino): 

The River Fire component of the complex on the west side is now 100% contained and the River Fire on the east side is 76% contained.

  • Acreage: 384,567
  • Containment: 79% 
  • Deaths: 1 firefighter
  • Structures destroyed: 277 (157 residences, 120 other)
  • Structures damaged: 37 (13 residences, 24 other)
  • Structures threatened: 1,050
  • Personnel: 3,439
  • Engines: 188
  • Helicopters: 21
  • Dozers: 63
  • Cause: Unknown, but suspicious
  • Expected full containment: 09/1/18

HOLY FIRE (Orange/Riverside counties):  no update posted today

  • Acreage: 22,885
  • Containment: 91% 
  • Structures destroyed: 18 (12 Orange County residences, 6 Riverside County residences)
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 1,065
  • Engines: 103
  • Helicopters: 10
  • Dozers: 3
  • Cause: Suspected arson (suspect in custody)
  • Expected full containment: 08/17/18 

 

 

Probolsky Research

 

 

#CAKEDAY: Happy birthday to Judge Lucy Armendariz!

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • Communications Director - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting directly to the Senior Operations Director while working closely with the Executive Director, the Communications Director will lead the communications and media activities for the organization. This position will develop a vision and strategy to support policy, project-based, and funding/development initiatives, as well as maintain day-to-day communications for social media. The Communications Director will generate a workplan that elevates Climate Resolve’s brand in the public sphere and grow the organization’s audience. 4+ years experience desired; Knowledge of environmental and CA policy landscape preferred. 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $69-78K DOE. Candidates with sense of humor, please apply here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796664542
  • Outreach Program Coordinator - Climate Resolve (Los Angeles)
    Reporting to the Senior Operations Director, the Outreach Program Coordinator will assist the programmatic staff to uphold the mission of the organization via public-facing projects. The Outreach Program Coordinator will perform assignments promoting climate solutions related primarily to energy efficiency and water conservation, including online and in-person outreach, public speaking engagements, and media and communications generation while contributing to additional policy work and projects as needed. Willingness to drive for outreach work throughout both LA County and adjacent counties up to [3] days per week + automobile required (Reimbursement provided). 401K, medical benefits, dental/vision stipend. $48-52 DOE. www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/796648751
  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here:onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621

  • Attorney General's Office is seeking a Legislative Advocate with subject matter expertise in areas such as civil law, criminal law, public rights and law enforcement. The Advocate represents the Department of Justice on legislative matters before the State Legislature. The job can be viewed here.   
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  •  CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)

    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The County Welfare Directors Association is hiring a Human Services Policy Analyst focusing on county-run programs serving children and adults. The Analyst supports the advocacy work CWDA is engaged in, at the direction of senior staff, including but not limited to legislative and budget efforts and implementation of policy changes enacted at the state and federal level. Competitive salary, excellent benefit package. Open until 8/1. Details: www.cwda.org/job-opportunities
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
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