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REMINDER: My scott@scottlay.com email address is still in DNS hell. scottlay@gmail.com (where that other email usually goes anyway) is working just fine.

Classifieds below:

  • Education: Pepperdine Masters of Public Policy (GRE waived for legislative staffers)
  • Education: UOP/McGeorge School of Law: MPP/MPA (full-time or part-time, 3 miles from the Capitol)
  • Event: Workforce development celebration: Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel
  • Job: Attorney General's Office: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: legislative advocate
  • Job: California School Boards Association: regional representatives
  • Job: California Welfare Directors Association: human services policy analyst
  • Job: Cargill Director of Governmental Relations (Newark-Bay Area)
  • Job: Local Health Plans of California seeks a Program Manager
  • Job: OPR Communications Account Executive
  • Job: Probolsky Research - Research Analyst - Public Opinion (Orange County)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW – Regional Political Organizer (Los Angeles)
  • Job: SEIU-UHW -- Political Capacity Organizer (Oakland or Sacramento)
  • Training: PDI (Political Data Inc.): weekly online trainings of various skill levels   

 

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Kick Out Kick Off

 

DISTRICT UPDATES

  • SD36 (Carlsbad): changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican - analysis forthcoming; question is whether Dem Marggie Castellano rides the coat-tails of the Dem-only AD76 race between the "traditional" and "Berniecrat/Socialist Democrat" candidates there amidst her abysmal fundraising ability. Dems failed to recruit a candidate with experience, like several local electeds in the district. Castellano raised only $17,391.53 in the first six months of 2018 and ended 06/30 with $9,579.68 in net cash on hand.

BALANCE OF POWER: Note that I don't list district-specific predictions below, but rather use probabilities in toss-ups to make projections. Individual race ratings are on the ATC district pages.

  • CA congressional delegation:
    • Current: 39 Democrats, 14 Republicans
    • My current projection for 116th Congress: 39 Democrats, 10 Republicans, 4 toss-ups
  • Senate:
    • Current: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 27 Democrats, 13 Republicans 
  • Assembly:
    • Current: 55 Democrats, 25 Republicans
    • My current projection for 2019-20 session: 56-58 Democrats, 22-24 Republicans (AD77 is getting close to toss-up; VR has moved from R+1.43% on 5/21 to 0.34% on 08/01, according to San Diego Registrar data)

Happy Tuesday! Today, the Conference Committee on SB 901 (Dodd) looking at wildfire preparedness and response meets at 2 p.m. in Room 4202. Today's hearing is on Wildfire Fuels Reduction. The agenda for Thursday's hearing upon adjournment of session has not been posted and the hearing is still noticed for the tiny Room 112. Hearing dates have not been set for next week. 

SPORTS PAGE: Regardless of who won, the Giants @ Dodgers game yesterday was a great game. Final score was Giants 5, Dodgers 2. Today's 7:10 first pitch will find Andrew Suárez pitching for the Giants and Alex Wood on the mound for the Dodgers. The California Angels (always to me) are in Sandy Eggo at 7:10pm. The A's host the Mariners in the Coliseum at 7:05pm.

Sorry about the errors yesterday. The positive thing is that after several months of insomnia, I seem to have cracked it. Yesterday I woke up and started working at 6:30am rather than my normal 5am or earlier. I may need to actually set an alarm.

SACTOWN TALKS: On Friday night, I sat down with former legislative staffer Gibran Maciel to chat it up on his SacTown Talks podcast and we covered lots of ground. 

1:30 - Intro & explaining The Nooner
14:35 - Leaving to start The Nooner
56:00 - Twitter
40:00 - Scott is BANNED from the Co-op!
52:00 - The road to redemption for Matt Dababneh…
54:00 - “Allegedly”
1:13:00 - Wildfires
1:27:00 - Fire relief funds
1:32:00 - Life takes life 

TAKE ME OUT TO THE BALL GAME (FOR THE KIDS): As a reminder, Wednesday night is the annual Legislative All-Star Softball Game at Raley Field, with the first pitch is at 7 p.m. The Democrats' team is led by Ian Calderon (D-Whittier), Kevin McCarty (D-Sacramento), and Kevin Mullin (D-South San Francisco), while the Republicans are led by Brian Maienschein (R-San Diego). The event costs $20 and the proceeds go to the Mustard Seed School established by the Loaves & Fishes homeless shelter, which serves students 3-15 for free. The school provides far more than education for children in homeless families.

The post-game entertainment will be provided by local band Remedy7, with some stars you might recognize from the Capitol scene. After all, this week is not just about "A, B, and C" roll calls. On Wednesday, get your softball fix (or laughs), followed by your rock and roll call--all for a good cause.

Buy your ticket(s) here with the access code LAG. (I had a bad link the last couple of days.) Once purchased, redeem the voucher with Karla Mendoza in Assemblymember McCarty’s office to pick up or arrange for delivery of your Legislative All-Star Game tickets.

FIRE ROUND-UP:

Rankings in California's Top 20 in history from over the last 12 months:

Deadliest
#3 Tubbs (October 2017) - 22 deaths
#10 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 9 deaths
#13 Carr (July 2018) - 8 deaths
#14 Atlas (October 2017) - 6 deaths
#20 Cascade (October 2017) - 4 deaths

Most Destructive
#1 Tubbs (October 2017) - 5,636 structures
#6 Carr (July 2018) - 1,599 structures
#7 Nuns (October 2017) - 1,355 structures
#8 Thomas (December 2017) - 1,063 structures
#12 Atlas (October 2017) - 783 structures
#18 Redwood Valley (October 2017) - 546 structures

Largest
#1 Mendocino Complex (July 2018) - 354,410
#2 Thomas (December 2017) - 281,893
#8 Carr (July 2018) - 207,162

 

FERGUSON: The Yosemite-area fire has burned 96,606 acres and is 80% contained. There have been two firefighter deaths associated with the fire, which has now burned for over a month.

Yosemite Status: Wawona Road (Hwy 41) between Wawona and Yosemite Valley, and Glacier Point Rd are closed due to fire
Yosemite Valley is open, but only accessible by entering Yosemite via Highways 140 or 120. Glacier Point Road and Merced Grove remain closed. Other areas of the park, including Wawona/Mariposa Grove, Hetch Hetchy, and Tuolumne Meadows are open.

CARR (Shasta/Trinity): The Carr Fire continued to burn at a slower pace and no new destruction or deaths or serious injuries have been reported.

  • Acreage: 207,162
  • Containment: 65%
  • Deaths: 8 (2 firefighters, 1 PG&E lineman apprentice, 1 CAL FIRE mechanic, and 4 civilians)
  • Structures destroyed: 1,599  (1,077 residences, 22 commercial, 500 other)
  • Structures damaged: 282 (191 residences, 26 commercial, 65 other)
  • Structures threatened: 528
  • Personnel: 4,334
  • Engines: 337
  • Helicopters: 13
  • Dozers: 77
  • Cause: Vehicle equipment malfunction
  • Expected full containment: Unknown 

MENDOCINO COMPLEX (Colusa/Lake/Mendocino): Yesterday saw the first death in the largest wildfire in California history, and it was that of Draper City Fire battalian chief Matt Burchett, 42. The identify of the firefighter has not been released, except that he was from Draper City, Utah as part of the mutual aid provided from seventeen states. He was one of five from the Draper fire department just south of Salt Lake City batting the Mendocino Complex fire. Burchett was injured on the scene fighting the fire and subsequently succumbed to his injuries at the hospital.

Burchett leaves behind a wife and young son.

 

Matt Burchett

Matt Burchett

Draper City, UT Fire Department Battalian Chief, Age 42

The River Fire component of the complex on the west side is now 100% contained and the River Fire on the east side is 68% contained.

  • Acreage: 354,410
  • Containment: 68% 
  • Deaths: 1 firefighter
  • Structures destroyed: 265 (147 residences, 118 other)
  • Structures damaged: 36 (13 residences, 23 other)
  • Structures threatened: 1,025
  • Personnel: 3,176
  • Engines: 258
  • Helicopters: 20
  • Dozers: 72
  • Cause: Unknown, but suspicious
  • Expected full containment: 09/1/18

HOLY FIRE (Orange/Riverside counties): 

  • Acreage: 22,986
  • Containment: 59% 
  • Structures destroyed: 12 
  • Structures threatened: 9,300
  • Personnel: 1,399
  • Engines: 191
  • Helicopters: 14
  • Dozers: 3
  • Cause: Suspected arson (suspect in custody)
  • Expected full containment: 08/17/18 

More stories below . . .

 

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Upward Mobility at Cal State LA

 

U.S. SENATE: For McClatchy, Emily Cadei looks at how state senator and Senate candidate Kevin de León is needling Senator Dianne Feinstein on the Supreme Court confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh. Feinstein is “playing polite, country-club politics,” as she pursues records from Kavanaugh’s time in the George W. Bush White House, state Sen. Kevin de León complained in a recent e-mail to supporters. And she and other Senate Democrats aren’t leveraging all the procedural tools they have to stall Kavanaugh’s confirmation. As de León told California Democratic activists in July, “We need to shut the Senate down!”

AB 931 (Weber and McCarty): I had a meeting at Chicory yesterday and after the meeting I finished my iced tea on the patio. Streaming out of the Capitol were dozens of people that had been lobbying for AB 931, which would limit the use of force by peace officers under certain circumstances and seeks to have de-escalation actions taken before force is used. While community, social justice, and religious groups are pushing hard to get the bill out of Senate Approps on Thursday, they have an uphill battle facing off against law enforcement.

The Senate Appropriations analysis uses creative means to stretch the "unknown costs" by looking at the cost to imprison an officer found guilty of misconduct in use of force. Of course, if they were right in thinking they need to shoot somebody who dies, isn't that net cost neutral in a grim way?

I'd bet this dies on the Suspense File. Follow the money.

Meanwhile, in light of the tragic Stephon Clark fatal shooting, the City of Sacramento's police department has created new policies for chasing suspects, report Molly Sullivan and Anita Chabria in the Bee. "Under a new policy set to be announced by the department Monday, foot pursuits in risky circumstances like the one that ended Clark’s life may be discouraged. Instead, officers will be asked to weigh their own safety, the safety of the public and the importance of apprehending the person before and during a pursuit."

DYNAMEX: The other thing that was clear in my conversations with folks from a variety of perspectives, the legislative hopes of the business community, particularly high tech, to modify the Labor Code to narrow the reach of the California Supreme Court's (SCOCAL's) April 30 Dynamex decision is still alive, despite the statements by Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins that no actions would take place in the last week of session.

The tech community is lobbying hard in tech heavy legislative districts particularly in San Francisco, the Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and the west side of LA are pushing Democrats that represent the areas to push back in caucus to get permission to join Republicans in a "fix." Labor obviously is fighting hard on the other side.

While the decision does not immediately affect any businesses other than Dynamex and only applies to the plaintiff class in the original lawsuit, it does set a new legal standard for employment classification that is effective immediately for any new cases.

The employer side argues that it is an invitation for a lawsuit gold rush while the Legislature is gone from September until January and nothing would likely happen in the first six months of 2019. Class actions are very expensive as they work their way through the process.

Labor argues that SCOCAL's new standard is a standard used in many other states and is a simpler test than the 9-factor test previously used.

All this said, don't believe someone who argues that the Dynamex decision itself would cause the tech companies to leave California. California is the biggest market for Uber and Lyft, and perhaps Instacart. If companies such as those moved to the most "pro-business state," they would still have to follow California law for workers who are operating in California.

There may be other reasons, but it's nothing like a factory making widgets for a high tech firm to pick up and move.

DASH FOR CASH: Amidst Appropriations Suspense files, there are 16 legislative fundraisers listed by my friends at the Capitol Morning Report

PROP 5 (senior property tax changes): Joel Fox catches that the California Association of Realtors, the sponsors of Proposition 5, have filed a similar initiative for title and summary to begin signature collection for 2020, raising the possibility that polling may not be great for November 6. The measure allows the carry-forward of the property tax base value from a current primary residence to a replacement residence, even if the replacement resident has a higher valuation.

THE IMPACT OF SACTOWN's HOUSING CRUNCH: A team of students in the journalism program at Sac State have an article in Capitol Weekly that goes beyond the numbers and looks at the human impact of the housing crisis in the Sacramento region.

 

Probolsky Research

 

#CAKEDAY: Light those candles for Dan Kalb, Eva Spiegel, and Pamela Woudstra!

 

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CLASSIFIEDS

Add your classified of up to 100 words by emailing scottlay@gmail.com for $40/week.

 

  • TBW Media/TBWB Strategies -  Seasonal campaign staffers needed for a variety of roles on campaigns for Democratic elected officials and nonpartisan ballot measures for the fall 2018 cycle. Looking for hard working day-to-day managers, communications, finance directors and staff, field directors and organizers. Also will be hiring for seasonal positions at our consulting firm. Send resume and cover letter indicating availability to bbarnes510@gmail.com. No Phone Calls.
  • Join the California Workforce Development Board, California Community College's Chancellor's Office, and the California Workforce Association for an evening of celebration, as we herald the best that regional workforce development has to offer on Tuesday, August 28th from 6pm to 8pm at the Citizen Hotel in Downtown Sacramento.

    This is your opportunity to network with the leaders of workforce development from across the state, and discover the ways that regional economies are coming together to put California forward as the leader in innovative, sustainable workforce strategies for the entire nation!

    Please register to attend the event here: buytickets.at/californiaworkforceassociation/176317

  • Job Openings – Account Executive
    OPR Communications is seeking account executives for its media relations and public affairs teams. As the leading public relations firm in the Inland Empire, the award-winning OPR team specializes in developing and executing public affairs, media relations, public education and community outreach programs on behalf of a wide range of land-use, transportation, healthcare, energy and government agency clients. Salary DOE. Detailed info here
    Apply at aherrera@oprusa.com.

  • CA School Boards Assn- Legislative Advocate (West Sacramento) Under supervision of the Assistant Executive Director for Governmental Relations, researches, analyzes, and evaluates proposed and current state and federal legislation, legislative issues, statutes, regulations, and policies; communicates and advocates for the Association’s position to influence opinion in favor of public education; develops, summarizes, and maintains reports and records; fosters cooperative working relationships among Association staff and acts as liaison with various legislative, educational, community, public, and government agencies; and performs related work as required.

    Details here:onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=151143621

  • Attorney General's Office is seeking a Legislative Advocate with subject matter expertise in areas such as civil law, criminal law, public rights and law enforcement. The Advocate represents the Department of Justice on legislative matters before the State Legislature. The job can be viewed here.   
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Bay Area)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:
  • https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407117 
  • CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (Orange County)
    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends. Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407120
  •  CA School Boards Assn- Public Affairs and Community Engagement Representative (San Joaquin North)

    This position serves as CSBA’s liaison to local school and county boards of education, key decision-makers and the community-at-large, and is responsible for implementing CSBA’s grassroots program, establishing relationships, and facilitating local and regional outreach and activation efforts. Communicates about issues in education that require familiarity with educational laws, regulations and trends.  Executes grassroots strategies designed to build relationships with, train, support and mobilize local school board members and communities to advance CSBA’s legislative and statewide ballot measure advocacy priorities. Coordinates and executes fundraising events. BOE. Details:

    https://onepoint.employernet.net/ta/CSBA.jobs?ShowJob=134407122

  • The County Welfare Directors Association is hiring a Human Services Policy Analyst focusing on county-run programs serving children and adults. The Analyst supports the advocacy work CWDA is engaged in, at the direction of senior staff, including but not limited to legislative and budget efforts and implementation of policy changes enacted at the state and federal level. Competitive salary, excellent benefit package. Open until 8/1. Details: www.cwda.org/job-opportunities
  • The McGeorge School of Law, University of the Pacific, in Sacramento offers the Master of Public Administration (MPA) and the Master of Public Policy (MPP) degrees to both full-time students and those earning a professional degree while working. Our focus on the interconnections of law, policy, management, and leadership provides unique competencies for your success. Students gain a deep understanding of statutory interpretation and regulatory processes critical to modern governance. Learn more at go.mcgeorge.edu/publicpolicy or contact us at publicpolicy@pacific.edu
  • GRE waived for qualifying government & legislative staffers to apply to the Pepperdine School of Public Policy’s Master of Public Policy program, considered the most unique policy graduate program in the country. Specialization tracks, including State & Local Policy, allow students to personalize their policy studies. Current State & Local Policy courses include, “Advanced Topics in Politics and Budgeting,” “Public Policy for Criminal Justice, Cannabis, and other Drugs,” “Permissions Development and the Environment,” and “Leadership through Public Engagement.” Find out more about this Top 10 in the West/Top 5 in California MPP program located in Malibu: publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/masters-6
TOP HEADLINES ON AROUNDTHECAPITOL.COM AS OF 12:00PM
As Democratic Party Activists Reject Sen. Feinstein, Which Side Of The Debate Is More In Touch With Voters?
Phil Willon, Seema Mehta @
latimes.com
Kevin de Leon landed the California Democratic Party endorsement for Senate, but in a state that has long had weak parties, that may not help much as he seeks a way out the deep hole he's in facing off with Sen. Dianne Feinstein in November. Feinstein has seldom courted party insiders.

The Daily 202: By overturning ballot initiatives, more lawmakers are rejecting the will of their voters

Democrats and Republicans, from D.C. to S.D. and Maine, disregard the outcome of popular referendums.

Prosecution Rests In Paul Manafort's Tax Evasion And Bank Fraud Trial
Associated Press @
latimes.com
The prosecution rests in their tax evasion and bank fraud case against President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort.

Omarosa Claims New Tape Shows Trump Campaign Staffers Discussing Racial Slur - Politico

Omarosa Manigault Newman has alleged that there is a recording of President Trump using the n-word from his time hosting NBC's "The Apprentice." | Saul Loeb/Getty Images

Religious Website Triggers Complaint Against Edwards Air Force Base Brigadier General
Sarah Parvini @
latimes.com
On Sunday, the Military Religious Freedom Foundation made an official demand to Defense Secretary James N. Mattis to “immediately and comprehensively” investigate Air Force Brig. Gen. E. John Teichert.

Warm, High-profile Welcome For Taiwanese President In The United States - Politico

Beijing considers the understanding the foundation for any cross-strait talks but, unlike her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai has resisted going down that path since she became president in May 2016.